Shoresteinsays.Com 2019 - NFL Week 1

ShoresteinSays.com 2019 - NFL Week 1

"The Money Zone": Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit above 55% on a sample of just under 500 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.

2019 Week 1

Away Home Calculated Spread Actual Spread Calculated vs Actual Projected Winner ATS Baltimore Miami (2.80) 6.50 9.30 Miami Green Bay Chicago (11.77) (3.50) 8.27 Chicago NY Giants Dallas (0.40) (7.00) 6.60 NY Giants Denver Oakland (4.67) - 4.67 Oakland Cincinnati Seattle (13.03) (9.00) 4.03 Seattle Detroit Arizona (0.50) 2.50 3.00 Arizona Buffalo NY Jets (5.40) (3.00) 2.40 NY Jets Houston New Orleans (4.80) (7.00) 2.20 Houston Tennessee Cleveland (3.37) (5.50) 2.13 Tennessee LA Rams Carolina 1.67 3.00 1.33 Carolina Atlanta Minnesota (5.23) (4.00) 1.23 Minnesota San Francisco Tampa Bay (2.23) (1.00) 1.23 Tampa Bay Indianapolis LA Chargers (8.00) (7.00) 1.00 LA Chargers Kansas City Jacksonville 4.57 4.00 0.57 Kansas City Washington Philadelphia (8.60) (9.00) 0.40 Washington Pittsburgh New England (6.30) (6.00) 0.30 New England The Week 1 Money Zone Picks are: Oakland, Seattle, Arizona, NY Jets, Houston, and Tennessee.

“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **2018 “Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week were 41-25 (62.12%) ATS !**

Tennessee +5.5 @ Cleveland: The hype train that is the Cleveland Browns begins 2019 as nearly a TD favorite against a team that was in the playoff hunt in the AFC for the majority of 2018. While my overall outlook on the Browns is generally positive, I think it is a tall task to be heavily favored against a tough, competitive team that has shown its ability to cover games against great competition. The Titans 3 most impressive wins of 2018 came against Dallas, New England, and Philadelphia. The Titans were at least a FG+ underdogs in all of these outright wins.

I think the Titans have a coaching advantage in this matchup. Vrabel showed me a lot in his rookie campaign as a coach. One of the most important statistics that I look at every week is Yards per Point Allowed. Teams that perform well in this category generally commit few penalties, have strong red zone defenses and don’t give up big plays. Titans Strength on Defense Points Allowed / Game Penalty Yardage For Red Zone TD % Opponent Yards / Point 18.90 (3rd) 45.40 (1st) 44.68% (2nd) 17.60 (1st)

Now, that’s a chart that would make Bill Belichick smile! In all honesty, I think the time Vrabel spent learning from Bill has molded his defensive philosophy. The cliché, but true, “Bend, But Don’t Break Defense” was a staple in the Patriots’ defense for years. To compare, the Patriots have finished 4th, 2nd, 1st, and 6th in Opponent Yards / Point for the last 4 years and you know where that has got them….

In this specific matchup, I think the Titans run game can be problematic for the Browns. I think Cleveland is built to shut down high-flying pass offenses with an elite corner in Denzel Ward and the edge rushing of Myles Garrett and newly added Olivier Vernon. The Titans simply do not have that high-flying offense which Cleveland is designed to shut down. They should be vulnerable to the run as they allowed a 25th ranked 4.7 yards / carry in 2018. I don’t think they’ve done a lot to address that weakness (Sheldon Richardson on the interior is not the answer in my opinion). Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis are a great combination of power and finesse. Lewis is a dynamic receiver and I would expect him to see a ton of targets in the early going.

A lot has been made about Mariota’s struggles in the preseason and his lack of protection, but the Browns were not the dominant pass rush team that you would think as they only sacked the QB on ~5% of drop backs in 2018 which put them at 28th in the league. Taylor Lewan’s absence is concerning, but the game plan should revolve around getting the ball out quickly and using screens to exploit the Browns aggressiveness. Adding Adam Humphries in the slot should help Mariota with quick completions, and the return of Delanie Walker will undoubtedly help with the struggling QB’s confidence. The Browns defense feasted on turnovers last year, but the Titans did a solid job of only giving it away 1.1 times per game which ranked 10th in the league.

Mayfield is on his way to being a top tier QB, but I don’t think he’s quite there yet. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Browns start slow on offense given all the hype and additional pressure they’ve applied on themselves through trash talk. Pair that with one of the toughest defenses teams in the AFC, and I think you’ve got a valuable opportunity to buy low on Tennessee.

Bills @ NY Jets -3: Sam Darold is the far more polished passer in this Battle of 2 young QB’s in the AFC East. I was very impressed with how Darnold started and finished the year in 2018. After throwing a pick 6 on his first NFL pass, he went on to throttle the Detroit Lions who at the time were very difficult to beat at home. He also finished his last 4 games of the year with a 6/1 TD/INT ratio and put up 27, 22, and 28 points in games against Buffalo, Houston, and Green Bay. The Jets organization definitely believes that Darnold is the future at QB.

On the other hand, Josh Allen has a long way to go to be an effective NFL quarterback. He still relies on his legs far too much, and he reminded me a lot of Trubisky as a rookie (but without the creative offensive coach). His poor decision-making and inadequate accuracy should worry Bills fans.

Josh Allen's 2018 Numbers TD / INT Ratio Yards / Att QB Rating Comp % 10/12 6.48 67.90 52.38%

It doesn’t mean you are a good quarterback if you have a high completion %, but it is borderline impossible to win when you complete close to 50% of passes. Allen also had 4 games where his average yards per attempt went below 5. To give that number some perspective, the last ranked Cardinals averaged 5.1 yards per pass attempt in 2018, and that offense was one of the worst in NFL history.

It’s no stretch to say that the Jets have added a lot of talent offensively. Jamison Crowder and Le’veon Bell will unquestionably give Quincy Enunwa and Robbie Anderson help as skill players. Darnold has some real options to spread the ball around which was not the case last year. I don’t think the same can be said about Buffalo. John Brown, Zay Jones, and Cole Beasley don’t put fear in any defensive coordinators as they prepare. Combine that with the Bills run game that only averaged 4.2 yards per carry in 2018, and they are bringing back an ancient Frank Gore and an unproven rookie to lead the backfield.

Jamal Adams is the future on defense. Based on his performance in year 1, I wouldn’t call you crazy if you made a comparison to Ed Reed. CJ Mosley will take on the leadership role of the defense, and should fit in well. The Jets certainly have question marks at corner, but as I mentioned above, the Bills don’t have the ability to exploit those weaknesses.

I like the Jets here. I’d be surprised if this wasn’t -3.5, by the time it kicks off. I personally don’t mind the half point at the reduced juice.

Houston +7 @ New Orleans: Bill O’Brien and the Texans have no-showed virtually every “Big Game” that they’ve been a part of in his tenure. The difference here is that this is a season opener with a non- conference opponent that they are expected to lose. I like the Texans a lot more as underdogs. Combine this with the Saints historical early season struggles and I think Houston is a strong play.

Despite what you might think, the Saints have not been a dominant home team lately particularly when laying heavy points in September:

Saints Home September Struggles Year Opponent Result Spread 2018 Tampa Bay L 40-48 (Loss ATS) -10 2018 Cleveland W 21-18 (Loss ATS) -7 2017 New England L 36-20 (Loss ATS) 5.5

While, I’m fairly high on the Saints 2019 Super Bowl aspirations, I would not be surprised to see a FG be the margin of victory against a talented Texans team.

The trend that’s most noticeable in the Saints last few September’s is how slow the defense starts. New Orleans ranked near the bottom in passer rating defense for the first few months of the season. Deshaun Watson should be much better than he was a season ago given that his knee is another year removed from surgery. Watson has also been impressive in tough road environments.

Deshaun Watson In Tough Environments Opponent Points Scored TD's Yards New England (2017) 33.00 2.00 301.00 Seattle (2017) 38.00 4.00 402.00 Denver (2018) 19.00 2.00 213.00 Philadelphia (2018) 30.00 2.00 339.00

The Texans questionable offensive line must bring its A-game to give Watson enough time. The Saints can certainly bring the pressure with their front seven, so this is definitely something to monitor. The recently acquired Laremy Tunsil should step in right away at left tackle.

The Texans defense will have their hands full with the Saints, but I think the loss of Mark Ingram is a bigger factor than most people think. His power matched with the push of the offensive line was a deadly combination in 2018. I don’t think they get the same reliable yardage on early downs with Latavius Murray. The Texans allowed the 2nd fewest yards on the ground per carry in 2018 at 3.6. New Orleans dominated time of possession last season. It will be key for Houston to stop the run and put Brees in long 3rd Downs to prove he can still throw in his age 40 season.

It’s rare to get a consistent playoff team getting a TD. I am on Houston.

Detroit @ Arizona +2.5: I don’t believe that I went anywhere near the Cardinals last season. I faded them on a regular basis in 2018, but I think Detroit is even more fade-able in this situation (add “Fade- able” to the Shorestein Dictionary).

The two biggest reasons I hate Detroit as a road favorite is the pass defense and the coaching. While Arizona has a lot of young unknowns in coaching and quarterback play, I know what Detroit is at this point.

Detroit Pass Defense 2018 Def Passer Rating Points Allowed / Game Opponent Yards / Attempt Takeaways / Game 102.7 (30th) 22.50 (17th) 7.30 (26th) .90 (31st) Aside from Tampa Bay, I’m not sure there is a better defense to match up with in Kyler Murray’s first NFL home game. Matt Patricia has shown no ability to prepare for young quarterbacks as he was shredded by Darnold in last year’s home opener. David Johnson was a transcendent talent in his first few seasons with the Cardinals; I would not be surprised to see him revitalized with the addition of so many young, fast skill players on offense. I don’t closely watch the college game, but Cliff Kingsbury’s specialty was offense. I think he’s got the chance to bring the Arizona offense to life.

The Lions should have a productive offense this year, but I have never been a believer of Stafford on the road. Last season, he turned this notion around, but looking at his career splits, he’s still much more dangerous at home. He’s thrown 21 more TD’s at home in his career, despite playing 71 career home games and 70 career road games. One of the more surprising stats you will hear is that Arizona ranked 2nd in the NFL in 2018 in sack %. They brought down the quarterback on 8.83% of pass attempts, only Minnesota had a better rate.

Random Thoughts:

- We’re Back Baby Let’s GOOOOO!!!!!

- Chicago, my darling of the offseason, gets Green Bay in the home-opener. I’m honestly skeptical whenever my calculation has an extremely high variance. I also would not be surprised to see a more motivated Aaron Rodgers to start the season.

- Well…. Andrew Luck decided to call it a career. I wish I hadn’t wrote that jinxing article that talked about how he was injured all the time about a week prior. His retirement also sucked the value out of my LA Chargers -3 bet that I had lined up for week 1. Anyways, no hard feelings Andrew!

- I don’t typically like betting against Jacksonville or Miami as home dogs in September. Far too hot, and many teams can’t handle it.

- Rams have a tough game at Carolina. Its well documented in the gambling community how difficult it is to play week 1 after losing the Super Bowl. Carolina has also been a great ATS team at home in the Cam Newton era.

- Do the Giants/Cowboys play each other Week 1 every season? I think they do…. I’m not sure how I feel about this one. Cowboys seem to start slow, but I’m not going out of my way to back the Giants.

- The Patriots host the Steelers in the Super Bowl Banner game, a matchup that New England has historically owned….. However, the Steelers have controlled both of the last 2 games and really should have won both…. But the Patriots have been a machine at Gillette Stadium in the regular season. No play for me here.

- Kirk Cousins vs. the Atlanta Falcons (AKA the Kirk Cousins of NFL Teams). Hope you got the joke there. That makes sense, right? The team that should be way better than it is, but never lives up to the hype. Again, I have no idea who’ll win this game. And I think you’re crazy if you think you do.

- I’m avoiding Washington/Philly as well. 9 points seems high for a traditionally hard-fought divisional matchup.

Good Luck Everyone! And remember take it slow! There’s a whole season ahead of us…

ShoresteinSays.com

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@n_Shorestein