A Guide to Preferred Shares a Special Report by the Portfolio Advisory Group
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Informed and Strategic Order Flow in the Bond Markets
Informed and Strategic Order Flow in the Bond Markets Paolo Pasquariello Ross School of Business, University of Michigan Clara Vega Simon School of Business, University of Rochester and FRBG We study the role played by private and public information in the process of price formation in the U.S. Treasury bond market. To guide our analysis, we develop a parsimonious model of speculative trading in the presence of two realistic market frictions—information heterogeneity and imperfect competition among informed traders—and a public signal. We test its equilibrium implications by analyzing the response of two-year, five-year, and ten-year U.S. bond yields to order flow and real-time U.S. macroeconomic news. We find strong evidence of informational effects in the U.S. Treasury bond market: unanticipated order flow has a significant and permanent impact on daily bond yield changes during both announcement and nonannouncement days. Our analysis further shows that, consistent with our stylized model, the contemporaneous correlation between order flow and yield changes is higher when the dispersion of beliefs among market participants is high and public announcements are noisy. (JEL E44, G14) Identifying the causes of daily asset price movements remains a puzzling issue in finance. In a frictionless market, asset prices should immediately adjust to public news surprises. Hence, we should observe price jumps only during announcement times. However, asset prices fluctuate significantly during nonannouncement days as well. This fact has motivated the introduction of various market frictions to better explain the behavior The authors are affiliated with the Department of Finance at the Ross School of Business, University of Michigan (Pasquariello) and the University of Rochester, Simon School of Business and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors (Vega). -
Government Bonds Have Given Us So Much a Roadmap For
GOVERNMENT QUARTERLY LETTER 2Q 2020 BONDS HAVE GIVEN US SO MUCH Do they have anything left to give? Ben Inker | Pages 1-8 A ROADMAP FOR NAVIGATING TODAY’S LOW INTEREST RATES Matt Kadnar | Pages 9-16 2Q 2020 GOVERNMENT QUARTERLY LETTER 2Q 2020 BONDS HAVE GIVEN US SO MUCH EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Do they have anything left to give? The recent fall in cash and bond yields for those developed countries that still had Ben Inker | Head of Asset Allocation positive yields has left government bonds in a position where they cannot provide two of the basic investment services they When I was a student studying finance, I was taught that government bonds served have traditionally provided in portfolios – two basic functions in investment portfolios. They were there to generate income and 1 meaningful income and a hedge against provide a hedge in the event of a depression-like event. For the first 20 years or so an economic disaster. This leaves almost of my career, they did exactly that. While other fixed income instruments may have all investment portfolios with both a provided even more income, government bonds gave higher income than equities lower expected return and more risk in the and generated strong capital gains at those times when economically risky assets event of a depression-like event than they fell. For the last 10 years or so, the issue of their income became iffier. In the U.S., the used to have. There is no obvious simple income from a 10-Year Treasury Note spent the last decade bouncing around levels replacement for government bonds that similar to dividend yields from equities, and in most of the rest of the developed world provides those valuable investment government bond yields fell well below equity dividend yields. -
Chapter 7 Interest Rates and Bond Valuation
Chapter 7 When corp. need to investment in new plant and equipment, it required money. So’ corp. need to raise cash / funds. Interest Rates and • Borrow the cash from bank (or Issue bond Bond Valuation / debt securities) (CHP. 7) • Issue new securities (i.e. sell additional shares of common stock) (CHP. 8) 7-0 7-1 Differences Between Debt and Chapter Outline Equity • Debt • Equity • Bonds and Bond Valuation • Not an ownership • Ownership interest interest • Common stockholders vote • Bond Ratings and Some Different Types of • Creditors do not have for the board of directors and other issues voting rights Bonds • Dividends are not • Interest is considered a considered a cost of doing • The Fisher Effect – the relationship cost of doing business business and are not tax and is tax deductible deductible between inflation, nominal interest rates • Creditors have legal • Dividends are not a liability and real interest rates remedy if interest or of the firm and stockholders have no legal remedy if principal payments are dividends are not paid missed • An all equity firm can not go • Excess debt can lead to bankrupt financial distress and bankruptcy 7-2 7-3 BOND • When corp. (or gov.) wishes • In return, they promise to pay to borrow money from the series of fixed interest payments public on a L-T basis, it and then to repay the debt to the usually does so by issuing or bondholders (lenders). selling debt securities that • Par value is usually $1000 are generally called BOND. for corporate bond 7-4 7-5 Bond • Par value (face value) • Face Value (Par Value): The principal • Coupon rate amount of a bond that will be repaid at • Coupon payment the end of the loan. -
Secondary Market Trading Infrastructure of Government Securities
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Balogh, Csaba; Kóczán, Gergely Working Paper Secondary market trading infrastructure of government securities MNB Occasional Papers, No. 74 Provided in Cooperation with: Magyar Nemzeti Bank, The Central Bank of Hungary, Budapest Suggested Citation: Balogh, Csaba; Kóczán, Gergely (2009) : Secondary market trading infrastructure of government securities, MNB Occasional Papers, No. 74, Magyar Nemzeti Bank, Budapest This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/83554 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu MNB Occasional Papers 74. 2009 CSABA BALOGH–GERGELY KÓCZÁN Secondary market trading infrastructure of government securities Secondary market trading infrastructure of government securities June 2009 The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official view of the central bank of Hungary (Magyar Nemzeti Bank). -
Corporate Bonds
UNDERSTANDING INVESTING Corporate Bonds After government bonds, the corporate bond market is the largest section of the global bond universe. With a vast array of maturities, yields and credit quality available, investing in corporate bonds has the potential to provide higher yields than government bonds and diversification benefits for investors. WHAT ARE CORPORATE BONDS? Speculative-grade bonds are issued by companies perceived to have a lower level of credit quality compared to more highly When companies want to expand operations or fund new rated, investment-grade, companies. The investment-grade business ventures, they often turn to the corporate bond category has four rating grades while the speculative-grade market to borrow money. A company determines how much category is comprised of six rating grades. it would like to borrow and then issues a bond offering in that amount; investors that buy a bond are effectively lending money to the company according to the terms established in STANDARD MOODY’S & POORS the bond offering or prospectus. INVESTMENT GRADE Unlike equities, ownership of corporate bonds does not signify an ownership interest in the company that has issued the Highest quality (Best quality, smallest degree of Aaa AAA bond. Instead, the company pays the investor a rate of interest investment risk) over a period of time and repays the principal at the maturity High Quality Aa AA date established at the time of the bond’s issue. (Often called high-grade bonds) While some corporate bonds have redemption or call features -
Subordinated Debt As Bank Capital: a Proposal for Regulatory Reform
Subordinated debt as bank capital: A proposal for regulatory reform Douglas D. Evanoff and Larry D. Wall Introduction and summary probability that a greater reliance on market discipline Last year, a Federal Reserve Study Group, in which will cause a temporary market disruption. Addition- we participated, examined the use of subordinated ally, history shows that introducing reforms during debt as a tool for disciplining bank risk taking. The relatively tranquil times is preferable to being forced 2 study was completed prior to the passage of the 1999 to act during a crisis. U.S. Financial Services Modernization Act and the Perhaps the most important reason that now may results are reported in Kwast et al. (1999). The report be a good time to consider greater reliance on subor- provides a broad survey of the academic literature on dinated debt is that international efforts to reform subordinated debt and of prevailing practices within existing capital standards are highlighting the weak- the current market for subordinated debt issued by nesses of the alternatives. In 1988, the Basel Committee banking organizations. Although the report discusses on Banking Supervision published the International a number of the issues to be considered in developing Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital a policy proposal, providing an explicit proposal was Standards, which established international agreement 3 not the purpose of the report. Instead, it concludes on minimum risk-based capital adequacy ratios. The with a call for additional research into a number of paper, often referred to as the Basel Capital Accord, related topics. relied on very rough measures of a banks credit risk In this article, we present a proposal for the use exposure, however, and banks have increasingly en- of subordinated debt in bank capital regulation. -
Speculation in the United States Government Securities Market
Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 2/25/2020 Se t m e 1, 958 p e b r 1 1 To Members of the Federal Open Market Committee and Presidents of Federal Reserve Banks not presently serving on the Federal Open Market Committee From R. G. Rouse, Manager, System Open Market Account Attached for your information is a copy of a confidential memorandum we have prepared at this Bank on speculation in the United States Government securities market. Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 2/25/2020 C O N F I D E N T I AL -- (F.R.) SPECULATION IN THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET 1957 - 1958* MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Starting late in 1957 and carrying through the middle of August 1958, the United States Government securities market was subjected to a vast amount of speculative buying and liquidation. This speculation was damaging to mar- ket confidence,to the Treasury's debt management operations, and to the Federal Reserve System's open market operations. The experience warrants close scrutiny by all interested parties with a view to developing means of preventing recurrences. The following history of market events is presented in some detail to show fully the significance and continuous effects of the situation as it unfolded. With the decline in business activity and the emergence of easier Federal Reserve credit and monetary policy in October and November 1957, most market elements expected lower interest rates and higher prices for United States Government securities. There was a rapid market adjustment to these expectations. -
The Innovation of Government Bonds in the Growth of an Emergent Capital Market
Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity Article The Innovation of Government Bonds in the Growth of an Emergent Capital Market Cordelia Onyinyechi Omodero 1,* and Philip Olasupo Alege 2 1 Department of Accounting, College of Management and Social Sciences, Covenant University, Ota 110001, Ogun State, Nigeria 2 Department of Economics and Development Studies, College of Management and Social Sciences, Covenant University, Ota 110001, Ogun State, Nigeria; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Abstract: The growth of an emerging capital market is necessary and requires all available resources and inputs from various sources to realize this objective. Several debates on government bonds’ contribution to Nigeria’s capital market developmental growth have ensued but have not triggered comprehensive studies in this area. The present research work seeks to close the breach by probing the impact of government bonds on developing the capital market in Nigeria from 2003–2019. We employ total market capitalization as the response variable to proxy the capital market, while various government bonds serve as the independent variables. The inflation rate moderates the predictor components. The research uses multiple regression technique to assess the explanatory variables’ impact on the total market capitalization. At the same time, diagnostic tests help guarantee the normality of the regression model’s data distribution and appropriateness. The findings reveal that the Federal Government of Nigeria’s (FGN) bond is statistically significant and positive in influencing Nigeria’s capital market growth. The other predictor variables are not found significant in this study. The study suggests that the Government should improve on the government bonds’ coupon, while still upholding the none default norm in paying interest and refunding principal to investors when due. -
Infrastructure Financing Instruments and Incentives
Infrastructure Financing Instruments and Incentives 2015 Infrastructure Financing Instruments and Incentives Contact: Raffaele Della Croce, Financial Affairs Division, OECD Directorate for Financial and Enterprise Affairs [Tel: +33 1 45 24 14 11 | [email protected]], Joel Paula, Financial Affairs Division, OECD Directorate for Financial and Enterprise Affairs [Tel: +33 1 45 24 19 30 | [email protected]] or Mr. André Laboul, Deputy-Director, OECD Directorate for Financial and Enterprise Affairs [Tel: +33 1 45 24 91 27 | [email protected]]. FOREWORD Foreword This taxonomy of instruments and incentives for infrastructure financing maps out the investment options available to private investors, and which instruments and incentives are available to attract private sector investment in infrastructure. The coverage of instruments is comprehensive in nature, spanning all forms of debt and equity and risk mitigation tools deployed by governments and agents. While the taxonomy is meant to capture all forms of private infrastructure finance techniques, a focus of this work is to identify new and innovative financing instruments and risk mitigation techniques used to finance infrastructure assets. Part I of this report provides the foundation for the identification of effective financing approaches, instruments, and vehicles that could broaden the financing options available for infrastructure projects and increase as well as diversify the investor base, potentially lowering the cost of funding and increasing the availability of financing in infrastructure sectors or regions where investment gaps might exist. Part II identifies the range of incentives and risk mitigation tools, both public and private, that can foster the mobilisation of financing for infrastructure, particularly those related to mitigating commercial risks. -
Recent Trends in Second Lien Loans
VEDDERPRICE ® Finance and Transactions Group Winter 2008–2009 Special Report “SECOND LIEN” LOANS Executive Summary. During the past few years, the financial markets have enabled borrowers to issue multiple layers of debt in sophisticated fi nancings, particularly in the case of highly leveraged companies. Thus, second lien fi nancing has not only become a recognized part of the capital structure of such fi nancings, but has experienced impressive expansion. The “market” terms that govern the second lien layer of debt evolved in light of increased involvement of nonbank investors (i.e., private equity sponsors, hedge funds, distressed debt funds, etc.). As the continued level of involvement of these nonbank investors remains uncertain and the credit markets tighten, the relationships between senior and junior secured lenders will change and certain provisions not typically found in recent intercreditor agreements may once again surface. This article discusses in detail the recent progression of second lien fi nancing structures and certain relevant intercreditor provisions (including payment subordination, enforcement actions, amendment rights and rights in bankruptcy) that may face increased scrutiny by fi rst lien and second lien lenders alike. WWW.VEDDERPRICE.COM VEDDERPRICE RECENT TRENDS IN SECOND LIEN LOANS Over the past several years, lenders have offered quarterly reviews, between 2003 and 2005, borrowers many alternative fi nancing vehicles as second lien loan volume spiked from $3.1 billion to options for fi nancing their acquisitions, corporate $16.3 billion. By 2006, LCD that reported the restructurings or operations. The creative and volume increased to $28.3 billion; in 2007, the complex fi nancing structures that resulted gave volume grew to nearly $30 billion, with more than rise to many different classes and types of lien 90% of the loans funded during the fi rst three priorities. -
A Primer on Second Lien Term Loan Financings by Neil Cummings and Kirk A
A Primer on Second Lien Term Loan Financings By Neil Cummings and Kirk A. Davenport ne of the more noticeable developments in can protect their interests in the collateral by requiring the debt markets in the last year has been second lien lenders to agree to a “silent second” lien. Othe exponential increase in the number of Second lien lenders can often be persuaded to second lien fi nancings in the senior bank loan mar- agree to this arrangement because a silent second ket. Standard & Poor’s/Leveraged Commentary & lien is better than no lien at all. In addition, under Data Team reports that second lien fi nancings raised the intercreditor agreement, in most deals, the more than $7.8 billion in the fi rst seven months of second lien lenders expressly reserve all of the 2004 alone, compared with about $3.2 billion for all rights of an unsecured creditor, subject to some of 2003. important exceptions. In this article, we discuss second lien term loans All of this sounds very simple, and fi rst and second marketed for sale in the institutional loan market, lien investors may be tempted to ask why it takes with a goal of providing both an overview of the pages of heavily negotiated intercreditor terms to product and an understanding of some of the key document a silent second lien. The answer is that business and legal issues that are often at issue. a “silent second” lien can span a range from com- In a second lien loan transaction, the second lien pletely silent to fairly quiet, and where the volume lenders hold a second priority security interest on the control is ultimately set varies from deal to deal, assets of the borrower. -
Chapter 10 Bond Prices and Yields Questions and Problems
CHAPTER 10 Bond Prices and Yields Interest rates go up and bond prices go down. But which bonds go up the most and which go up the least? Interest rates go down and bond prices go up. But which bonds go down the most and which go down the least? For bond portfolio managers, these are very important questions about interest rate risk. An understanding of interest rate risk rests on an understanding of the relationship between bond prices and yields In the preceding chapter on interest rates, we introduced the subject of bond yields. As we promised there, we now return to this subject and discuss bond prices and yields in some detail. We first describe how bond yields are determined and how they are interpreted. We then go on to examine what happens to bond prices as yields change. Finally, once we have a good understanding of the relation between bond prices and yields, we examine some of the fundamental tools of bond risk analysis used by fixed-income portfolio managers. 10.1 Bond Basics A bond essentially is a security that offers the investor a series of fixed interest payments during its life, along with a fixed payment of principal when it matures. So long as the bond issuer does not default, the schedule of payments does not change. When originally issued, bonds normally have maturities ranging from 2 years to 30 years, but bonds with maturities of 50 or 100 years also exist. Bonds issued with maturities of less than 10 years are usually called notes.