Hudson Data Jam Competition 2018

Hudson Data Jam Competition 2018 Written Report Form Team Information Project Title: Hurricane Sandy-What Happened and When School Name: Speyer Legacy School Name of Dataset(s): Hurricane Sandy and the Hudson River Level of Dataset(s): 2 Team Advisor’s Name(s): Mrs. Schwab Team Members’ Names (First and Last): Christopher Ortiz, Jonathan Manta, Alexander (Sasha) Goncharenko 1. Title Hurricane Sandy-What Happened and When Christopher Ortiz, Jonathan Manta, Alexander (Sasha) Goncharenko-7th grade- Speyer Legacy School 2. Introduction We went out to Pier I for a Day in the Life of the Hudson River and collected data on tide and current among other things. Being outside all day, we experienced much of the tide cycle, from very low to nearly high and noted the incredible change in speed and direction of the current. But this was simply a calm, typical day on the river. We wanted to compare the height of the water on this day, with the raging waters of Superstorm Sandy that we all experienced in various parts of the city. One of our team members was driven from his home for three months after the storm as his home was damaged and the power was out in his neighborhood. Where did all of that water come from? How did it flood the interior of one of our homes, flood the subway and knock out power to parts of the city? Could it have been worse? Will we face these conditions again? 3. Dataset Description We used three main data sets to do our study. We used tide height data from NOAA (Fanelli, 2018) as compiled for the Level 2 Hurricane Sandy and the Hudson River and then used that same NOAA data to reveal the predicted astronomical tide plus the storm surge from Sandy. This set of NOAA metadata was very precise and showed the motion of the storm in 12 hour segments, along with information as Sandy passed from the majority of the sensors and the water levels in that area as the hurricane came by, along with what records it broke for maximum height in certain areas. We used data from HRECOS to plot graphs of tide height around the time of A Day in the Life of the Hudson River. Note that HRECOS sensors in the lower Hudson were damaged by Sandy storm surge. We used moon phase data from a moon phase calendar. The independent variables for the graphs using data from NOAA and HRECOS are location, time and date. The dependent variable with all of these graphs is the height of the water. For the moon phase data, the independent variable is date and the independent variable is the phase of the moon. 4. Data Representations Figure 1. This graph shows the change in water level at Pier 84 on October 12, 2017, which is the closest HRECOS recording station to Pier i where we spent A Day in the Life of the Hudson River. We were at the pier from approximately 9:30, when the tide was quite low approximately 2:30 when the tide was quite high. Figure 2. This graph shows a week’s worth of tide height at Pier 84, revealing the variation in tide height level over one week. Figure 3. This graph reveals tide height data from October 12, 2017 to October 31, 2017 revealing more of the monthly variation in water level. Figure 4. This image shows the phases of the moon during the month of October 2017 ("Turning the Tide on Modeling Storm Surge", 2018) Figure 5. This graph, created from the Cary Institute data jam dataset shows the tide height at the Battery from October 28, 2012 to November 3, 2012. Figure 6. This graph shows the predicted astronomical tide in blue and the actual tide in green at the Battery from October 28, 2012 to November 3, 2012. ("National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration", 2018) Figure 7. This image shows the phases of the moon during the month of October 2012 ("Turning the Tide on Modeling Storm Surge", 2018) 5. Data Trends or Comparisons Figure 1 reveals typical tidal patterns on the Hudson River, without the addition of storm surge. The water level rises up for two high tides per day and drops to two low tides per day. Figures 2 and 3 show how this daily rise and fall of water levels varies in height across several days. This variation coincides with the phases of the moon recorded in figure 4. The lowest high tides and highest low tides coincide roughly with the first quarter moon. The highest high tides and lowest low tides coincide with the new moon. October 12 is interesting because it has close to the highest low tide, like during the first quarter, but also a high high tide. Figure 5 shows a huge spike in water level at the Battery. The height jumped from around 9 feet to 14 in a very short amount of time. Figure 6 shows that the actual tide was roughly three times higher than the predicted tide. It also shows that at the time that water levels spiked, the predicted tide was high. The moon phase chart shows that the moon was full on October 29, 2012. Some of the trends that our team noticed was the sudden stop in data on the HRECOS website. When researching for the components for our research, we noticed that the scanners malfunctioned, and didn’t produce the data collected. The scanners stopped on the day Hurricane Sandy hit, and started again few months later. another trend we saw was that the day leading up to the super storm were quite normal, until Sandy hit New York. We found it interesting that the water before the storm did not affect the storm’s water patterns. Also as we looked at previous storms, the water beforehand seemed to lead up to the actual hurricane. Sandy however was unique in that it came very suddenly with seemingly no warning at all from the waters. 6. Data Interpretation After A Day in the Life of the Hudson River, we studied the phases of the moon and how they affect the tides. We learned that daily high tides occurred when the moon was directly overhead our location, its meridian, and 12 hours and 25 minutes later when it was located 180 degrees from our meridian. ("NOAA National Ocean Service Education: Tides and Water Levels", 2018) When the moon is directly overhead, its gravitational force is the strongest because it is the closest. A tidal bulge is created simultaneously on the far side of the earth because of inertia. ("NOAA National Ocean Service Education: Tides and Water Levels", 2018)We then learned that the position of the moon relative to the earth and sun can magnify or diminish the daily tidal cycle. When the earth moon and sun are aligned in syzygy, during both full and new moons, the the gravitational forces of the sun and moon are pulling in the same direction, yielding the highest high tides and lowest low tides of the month, called spring tides. When the moon is at a ninety degree angle to the sun, during the first and third quarters, the gravitational forces of the sun and moon are pulling at ninety degree angles yielding the lowest high tides and the highest low tides of the month, called neap tides. ("NOAA National Ocean Service Education: Tides and Water Levels", 2018) The moon travels around the earth in an elliptical path, meaning that it is not a fixed distance from the earth. When the moon is at its closest point to the earth in its orbit around the earth it is at perigee. Since the moon is closer to the earth at perigee, its gravitational force is the strongest, magnifying the usual monthly tide cycle. When the moon is the farthest from the earth, at apogee, its gravitational force is less, diminishing the usual monthly tide cycle. These factors describe baseline astronomical tides, but during a tropical storm, reduced air pressure can cause water levels to rise and wind can push water onto shore. This water, on top of the astronomical tide based on the position of the moon, is called storm surge ("Storm Surge Overview", 2018) The combined astronomical tide plus the storm surge produces the storm tide as shown by the green line in figure 6. The astronomical tide was already high because the moon was full and its meridian relative to New York City, so it was also high tide. If the moon was in a different position than it was during Hurricane Sandy, the storm tide level would have varied greatly. The astronomical tide greatly affects the storm tide, even if the storm surge remains fixed. Using NOAA data and the AIR hurricane model, scientists modeled different storm surge elevation possibilities based on different landfall times for Hurricane Sandy. (2018) The storm tide would have been 8 inches higher if it struck during the higher morning high tide. If Sandy struck during a new moon spring tide, occurring roughly 2 weeks earlier or later, it would have been either 18 inches higher, at high tide, or 47 inches lower at low tide. If Sandy struck at low tide, either roughly six hours earlier or later than it struck, storm surge was projected to be 42 inches lower. If Sandy struck when the moon was at perigee, at high tide with a full moon, the storm surge was predicted to be 20 inches higher. The higher the storm surge, the farther the water penetrates inland.

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