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Ireland: Selected Issues; IMF Country Report No. 18/195; June 11, 2018

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Ireland: Selected Issues; IMF Country Report No. 18/195; June 11, 2018 IMF Country Report No. 18/195 IRELAND SELECTED ISSUES June 2018 This Selected Issues paper on Ireland was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on June 12, 2018. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund • Publication Services PO Box 92780 • Washington, D.C. 20090 Telephone: (202) 623-7430 • Fax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: [email protected] Web: http://www.imf.org Price: $18.00 per printed copy International Monetary Fund Washington, D.C. © 2018 International Monetary Fund IRELAND SELECTED ISSUES June 11, 2018 Approved By Prepared by Nir Klein, Edward Kleinbard, Thornton European Department Matheson, and Jiri Podpiera CONTENTS BUSINESS CYCLE IN IRELAND: ACCOUNTING FOR OPEN LABOR MARKET AND MULTINATIONALS ____________________________________________________________________ 4 A. Introduction _________________________________________________________________________ 4 B. Equilibrium in a Small Open Labor Market ___________________________________________ 5 C. Potential Output of a Globally-Integrated Economy ________________________________ 12 D. The Implied Business Cycle Position ________________________________________________ 15 References _____________________________________________________________________________ 17 FIGURES 1. Labor Market _________________________________________________________________________ 6 2. Weakened Cyclical Signals ___________________________________________________________ 7 3. Stochastic Trends ____________________________________________________________________ 9 4. Unemployment Rates _______________________________________________________________ 10 5. Labor Market Gaps __________________________________________________________________ 10 6. Wage Growth Decomposition _______________________________________________________ 11 7. GDP Growth Contributions __________________________________________________________ 12 8. Potential Growth ____________________________________________________________________ 14 9. Potential Growth Decomposition ____________________________________________________ 15 10. Output Gap Estimates ______________________________________________________________ 15 11. Output Gap Decomposition ________________________________________________________ 16 TABLES 1. Trend and Cycle Estimation __________________________________________________________ 9 2. Wage Phillips Curve Estimation _____________________________________________________ 11 3. Structural Multivariate Filter _________________________________________________________ 13 IRELAND THE IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL TAX REFORMS ON IRELAND __________________ 18 A. Introduction_________________________________________________________________________ 18 B. Foreign Investment in Ireland _______________________________________________________ 18 C. Ireland’s CIT regime _________________________________________________________________ 19 D. Corporation Tax Revenues __________________________________________________________ 22 E. The U.S. Tax Reform _________________________________________________________________ 27 F. OECD/G-20 BEPS ____________________________________________________________________ 32 G. EU Anti-Tax Avoidance Directives ___________________________________________________ 34 H. Digital Taxation _____________________________________________________________________ 37 I. CCCTB _______________________________________________________________________________ 38 J. Conclusions and Policy implications _________________________________________________ 39 References _____________________________________________________________________________ 44 FIGURES 1. Inbound and Outbound FDI Stocks and CIT Rate ____________________________________ 18 2. FDI Stocks, 2016 _____________________________________________________________________ 19 3. Foreign Direct Investment ___________________________________________________________ 20 4. Overall Statutory Rates ______________________________________________________________ 21 5. Corporation Tax Revenues __________________________________________________________ 22 6. U.S. MNE’s Fiscal Relevance in Selected Host Countries _____________________________ 22 7. Corporate Income Tax Performance, 2016 __________________________________________ 23 8. Corporate Tax and Gross Operating Surplus, 2016 __________________________________ 23 9. Wages, 2016 ________________________________________________________________________ 23 10. U.S. MNE’s Affiliates–Value Added per Employee __________________________________ 24 11. U.S. MNE’s Affiliates–Total Assets per Employee ___________________________________ 24 12. Percentage Change in FDI Stock and CIT Revenue from U.S. Tax Reform __________ 26 13. Irish Revenue Structure vs. OECD Europe, 2016 ____________________________________ 40 TABLES 1. Irish Affiliates of U.S. MNEs __________________________________________________________ 24 2. Parameters for TCJA Impact Assessment ____________________________________________ 25 ANNEX I. Tax-Minimizing Structures ___________________________________________________________ 42 THE IRISH COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET: SYNCHRONIZATION AND THE ROLE OF EXTERNAL FACTORS _____________________________________________________ 45 A. Introduction_________________________________________________________________________ 45 2 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND IRELAND B. CRE Investment and Financing: Some Stylized Facts ________________________________ 48 C. The Co-movement of Ireland’s CRE Return with Peers ______________________________ 50 D. The Determinants of Synchronization in the CRE Markets __________________________ 53 E. The Sensitivity of Irish CRE Prices to Changes in International CRE Prices __________ 55 F. Key Takeaways and Policy Implications _____________________________________________ 57 References _____________________________________________________________________________ 59 FIGURES 1. CRE Return and Domestic Economic Activity ________________________________________ 45 2. CRE Returns _________________________________________________________________________ 45 3. Ireland's CRE Market: Selected Indicators ___________________________________________ 46 4. Bank CRE Lending ___________________________________________________________________ 48 5. CRE Market: Composition of Investors ______________________________________________ 49 6. CRE Market: Investment, Take Up, and Vacancy _____________________________________ 49 7. CRE Return Volatility ________________________________________________________________ 51 8. CRE Return and Synchronization Indicators _________________________________________ 52 9. CRE Return Synchronization with Other Regions ____________________________________ 52 10. CRE Return Synchronization _______________________________________________________ 53 11. CRE Prices Growth _________________________________________________________________ 55 12. Impulse Response Functions _______________________________________________________ 56 TABLES 1. Summary Statistics __________________________________________________________________ 51 2. CRE’s Total Return: Determinants of Synchronization _______________________________ 54 ANNEX I. Determinants of Synchronization ____________________________________________________ 60 II. Summary Statistics: VAR Endogenous Variables _____________________________________ 61 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 3 IRELAND BUSINESS CYCLE IN IRELAND: ACCOUNTING FOR OPEN LABOR MARKET AND MULTINATIONALS1 Assessing the business cycle in Ireland is complicated by the open character of its labor market and large presence of globally active multinationals. This chapter takes into account these features of the Irish economy when estimating potential output and the cyclical position. Results point to a strong recent rebound of potential growth as well as a currently advanced cyclical position, with a positive and widening output gap. A. Introduction 1. This chapter estimates the cyclical position of the Irish economy. The recent publication of the GNI* and other related indicators, which help to identify the large global activities of multinationals and provide a better measure of the size of the domestic economy, has invited for a deeper analysis of the cyclical position of the Irish economy.2 A better understanding of the cyclical position is essential for macroeconomic diagnostics, including assessing external sustainability and determining an appropriate fiscal policy stance. 2. Despite helpful supplementary data releases, several features of the Irish economy continue to pose challenges for business cycle identification. First, a large multinational sector, accounting for an important share of Irish GDP, tends to behave differently from the domestic economy and arguably it is not responsive to domestic demand management. Second, given the large trade with the United Kingdom, the headline inflation in Ireland often reflects movements in the Euro/Sterling exchange rate and thus does not provide a reliable measure of domestic inflation pressures as signs of slack in the economy. And finally, the usual cyclical signals from wage growth or the unemployment rate gap are likely to be often weakened by the very open and flexible character of the Irish labor market. 3. Given these challenges and general uncertainty around potential output estimates, a suite of adapted models
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