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An Investigation of Climate Patterns on Earth-Like Planets Using the NASA GISS Global Climate Model II" (2013)

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An Investigation of Climate Patterns on Earth-Like Planets Using the NASA GISS Global Climate Model II University of North Dakota UND Scholarly Commons Theses and Dissertations Theses, Dissertations, and Senior Projects January 2013 An Investigation Of Climate Patterns On Earth- Like Planets Using The NASA GISS Global Climate Model II Robert Mark Elowitz Follow this and additional works at: https://commons.und.edu/theses Recommended Citation Elowitz, Robert Mark, "An Investigation Of Climate Patterns On Earth-Like Planets Using The NASA GISS Global Climate Model II" (2013). Theses and Dissertations. 1418. https://commons.und.edu/theses/1418 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Theses, Dissertations, and Senior Projects at UND Scholarly Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of UND Scholarly Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. AN INVESTIGATION OF CLIMATE PATTERNS ON EARTH-LIKE PLANETS USING THE NASA GISS GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL II by Robert Mark Elowitz Bachelor of Science, University of Arizona, 1985 A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the University of North Dakota In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Grand Forks, North Dakota May 2013 Copyright 2013 Robert Mark Elowitz ii This thesis, submitted by R. Mark Elowitz in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science from the University of North Dakota, has been read by the Faculty Advisor under whom the work has been done and is hereby approved. _________________________________________ Dr. Paul S. Hardersen _________________________________________ Dr. Xiquan Dong ___________________________________ Dr. Ronald Fevig This thesis is being submitted by the appointed advisory committee as having met all of the requirements of the Graduate School at the University of North Dakota and is hereby approved. ____________________________________ Dean of the Graduate School ____________________________________ Date iii PERMISSION Title: An Investigation of Climate Patterns on Earth-like Planets Using the NASA GISS Global Climate Model II Department: Space Studies Degree: Master of Science In presenting this thesis in partial fulfillment of the requirements for a graduate degree from the University of North Dakota, I agree that the library of this University shall make it freely available for inspection. I further agree that permission for extensive copying for scholarly purposes may be granted by the professor who supervised my thesis work or, in her absence, by the chairperson of the department or the dean of the Graduate School. It is understood that any copying or publication or other use of this thesis or part thereof for financial gain shall not be allowed without my written permission. It is also understood that due recognition shall be given to me and to the University of North Dakota in any scholarly use which may be made of any material in my thesis. Robert Mark Elowitz March 19, 2013 iv TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................... vii LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................. xi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ................................................................................................ xii ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................... xii CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................1 Greenhouse Gas Forcing ..............................................................................6 The Effect of Vegetation on Planetary Albedo ..........................................17 The Effect of Orbital Parameters on Planetary Climate ............................17 Theory Behind Global Climate Models .....................................................22 Global Climate Model Equations...............................................................25 Boundary Conditions, Initial Conditions and Climate Forcing .................35 Climate Feedback Mechanisms .................................................................37 The Habitable Zone Boundaries for Earth-like Planets .............................40 II. METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................49 Basic Approach and Objectives of the Study ............................................49 The Educational Global Climate Model (EdGCM) User Interface ...........53 III. RESULTS AND ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE MODEL SIMULATIONS.........57 EdGCM: Initial Conditions for Model Climate Simulations .....................57 EdGCM: Description of Climate Model Output Data ...............................59 v Results of the Greenhouse Gas Forcing Models ........................................60 Simulation of Long-period Solar Minimum ..............................................93 EdGCM Results for Variations in an Earth-like Planet’s Obliquity 94 and Eccentricity ....................................................................98 EdGCM Results for an Earth-like Planet Located at the Inner and Outer HZ Regions .............................................................................133 An Advanced Civilization Neglects Their Home World – The Case of an Exponential Increase in Chlorofluorocarbon Emissions ................143 IV. COMPARISON WITH OBSERVATIONAL DATA .......................................148 V. LESSONS LEARNED AND SUMMARY OF RESULTS ..............................153 Conclusion ...............................................................................................153 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................167 vi LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1. Plot of historical sunspot data over 400 years ....................................................... 2 2. Albedo-temperature positive feedback process ..................................................... 5 3. Inverse of the albedo-temperature feedback process. ........................................... 6 4. Greenhouse gas molecules used in EdGCM. ........................................................ 7 5. Positive feedback process due to melting methane clathrates in permafrost ........ 9 6. Illustration of the greenhouse effect .................................................................... 10 7. Critical threshold to initiate a runaway greenhouse effect .................................. 13 8. Positive feedback mechanism involving water vapor ......................................... 15 9. The positive vegetation-albedo feedback process ............................................... 18 10. High and low obliquity for an Earth-like planet .................................................. 20 11. Diagram of an elliptical orbit .............................................................................. 21 12. 3-D climate model concept over a finite grid ...................................................... 23 13. Factors involved in the equation of conservation of momentum ........................ 30 14. The Sun's habitable zone ..................................................................................... 41 15. Illustration of varying obliquity........................................................................... 52 16. User interface to the NASA GCM-II climate model ........................................... 55 17. Linear trends in greenhouse gas emissions ......................................................... 62 18. Surface air temperature for linear greenhouse emissions .................................... 64 vii 19. Maxium surface air temperature for linear GHG emissions ............................... 65 20. Surface albedo for linear GHG emissions case ................................................... 66 21. Surface albedo for linear GHG emissions case ................................................... 67 22. Total annual cloud cover for linear GHG emissions ........................................... 68 23. Simulated zonal average of total cloud cover ..................................................... 69 24. Observed zonal average of the total cloud coverage ........................................... 70 25. Net heating for linear GHG emissions case ........................................................ 72 26. Net radiation for linear GHG emissions case ...................................................... 74 27. Surface Air Temperature for the Linear GHG case ............................................ 77 28. Annual temperature difference for linear GHG case ........................................... 78 29. Change in albedo over a 200 year time span ....................................................... 79 30. Global map showing evaporation for the linear GHG trend case ....................... 81 31. Exponential increase in carbon dioxide ............................................................... 82 32. Surface air temperature maps for an exponential increase in carbon dioxide ..... 86 33. Zonal average distance of surface air temperature for a linear increase in carbon dioxide ................................................................................... 87 34. Methane concentration for the clathrate melt case .............................................. 89 35. Surface air temperatures for the methane clathrate simulation ..........................
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