Political geography: Mapping the midterms

Which party will win control of the House and Senate in November? Republicans have the momentum heading into the post-Labor Day crunch, as the GOP has neutralized Democratic advantages on the issues, President Obama’s ratings have faded, and dissatisfaction with the government now surpasses its 1994 levels. Seventy-two percent of voters disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job, a 16-year high.

ANALYSIS by Chris Cillizza, Dan Balz, Felicia Sonmez, Aaron Blake, Jon Cohen and Kyle Dropp | GRAPHICS by Laura Stanton, Karen Yourish and Gene orp

Balance of power Democrats Safe Lean Toss- Lean Safe Republicans not not up for reelection Dem. Dem. up Rep. Republican up for reelection SENATE 40 6 2 12 5 12 23 Seats needed to control Senate 51

KEY WASHINGTON Safe Democrat $12.7 Lean Democratic NORTH DAKOTA million Toss-up Rob Portman (R) VT. Lean Republican OREGON N.H. Safe Republican IDAHO $19.2 5 million SOUTH DAKOTA NEW Not up for reelection WISCONSIN YORK CONN. Senate Majority Leader Five races to watch. 1 Harry M. Reid (D) See next page for details. NEVADA PENNSYLVANIA CALIFORNIA IOWA Candidates who have 2 raised the most in UTAH OHIO MD. $ INDIANA DEL. competitive races 3 ILLINOIS WEST COLORADO 1 VIRGINIA KANSAS MISSOURI KENTUCKY $18.9 million NORTH CAROLINA ARIZONA OKLAHOMA Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) ARKANSAS SOUTH CAROLINA $12.8 GEORGIA million ALABAMA Marco Rubio (R)

LOUISIANA $12.5 million ALASKA 4

FLORIDA Gov. Charlie Crist (I)

HAWAII

e big issues

ECONOMY IMMIGRATION HEALTH CARE SPENDING e economy doesn’t just top the list of issues shaping the political Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer’s Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Calif.) “Reckless government spending” environment this fall. It dominates that list. Earlier, the signing of the nation's strictest said her vote in March in favor of the is a perennial issue for administration came up with the phrase “recovery summer” to immigration bill stirred a national health-care bill was “probably the Republicans, but in a cycle in which highlight the progress the economy has made since President debate about the issue. While most dicult” of her career — and candidates are being targeted for Obama took oce. Since then the economy has hit another rocky Republican strategists fret that it she could pay the price in November. their votes on the Troubled Assets patch. e jobs report released Friday showed the unemployment could damage the party's Republican Scott Brown's win in a Relief Program, the stimulus plan rate ticking up to 9.6 percent. In the second quarter, the economy relationship with Hispanic voters in special Senate election in and the health-care overhaul, grew at a rate of just 1.6 percent, a downward revision from initial the long term, the short-term Massachusetts early this year forced incumbents in both parties are at estimates and slower than in the first quarter. e administration’s political gains have all been on the Democrats to rethink their risk — and the ascendancy of the stimulus package prevented the downturn from becoming even GOP side, as polling suggests that health-care strategy, but they wound “tea party” movement only worse, according to the Congressional Budget Oce. But the public’s a majority of voters back the up getting the bill through the House increases the pressure. Watch the view of the stimulus is far less positive. Arizona law. Brewer is a prime and making changes aerward. Senate race in Missouri, where example of how the bill has Most recent polling shows that the Secretary of State Robin e economy’s impact can be seen in races across the country. benefited Republicans: She went law continues to be controversial, Carnahan (D) has hammered Rep. Nevada, hit hard by the foreclosure crisis, now has the nation’s from deeply vulnerable to a solid and a new Washington Post-ABC Roy Blunt (R) for his TARP vote. highest unemployment rate. In California, the downturn has favorite this fall in her race against News poll has voters about evenly Will Blunt follow Sen. Robert F. contributed to the state’s enormous economic and budgetary state Attorney General Terry split on whether to trust Democrats Bennett (R-Utah), who was ousted problems and aected statewide races there. In Ohio, anti-free-trade Goddard. or Republicans on health care. Just by his party earlier this year for sentiment and the decline of manufacturing jobs color key statewide six months ago, Democrats had a supporting TARP? contests and a series of competitive House races. double-digit lead on the issue.

HOUSE WASHINGTON

KEY MONTANA $2.6 MAINE NORTH DAKOTA million Unopposed Democrats MINNESOTA Rep. Jim Democratic incumbents OREGON Himes (D) VT. facing challengers NEW N.H. WISCONSIN YORK Open seats IDAHO SOUTH DAKOTA MASS. Republican incumbents CONN. R.I. facing challengers WYOMING MICHIGAN Unopposed Republicans CALIFORNIA IOWA PENNSYLVANIA 2 5 NEBRASKA INDIANA OHIO N.J. Five races to watch. 1 NEVADA MD. DEL. See next page for details. MISSOURI ILLINOIS $2.7 million UTAH 1 WEST Candidates who have VIRGINIA Rep. $ raised the most in KANSAS 3 Patrick J. 4 COLORADO VIRGINIA competitive races KENTUCKY Murphy (D) NORTH CAROLINA OKLAHOMA TENNESSEE ARIZONA ARKANSAS SOUTH CAROLINA NEW MEXICO

GEORGIA ALABAMA LOUISIANA

MISSISSIPPI TEXAS

ALASKA For more detail and historic results, FLORIDA go to washingtonpost.com/politics. $4 $3.7 million HAWAII million Allen West (R) $2.6 Rep. Alan million Grayson (D) Rep. Chet Edwards (D)

Unopposed Democratic Open Republican Unopposed Democrats incumbents facing challengers Balance seats incumbents facing challengers Republicans 13 221 of power 44 124 33

Seats needed to control House 218