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Economic Impact Study THE COMPETITIVE EFFECTS AND FISCAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF THE PROPOSED TARGET STORE A Report To The City of Scotts Valley From GRUEN GRUEN + ASSOCIATES Urban Economists, Market Strategists & Land Use / Public Policy Analysts December 2008 C1248 THE COMPETITIVE EFFECTS AND FISCAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF THE PROPOSED TARGET STORE A Report To The City of Scotts Valley From GRUEN GRUEN + ASSOCIATES Urban Economists, Market Strategists & Land Use / Public Policy Analysts December 2008 C1248 APPLYING KNOWLEDGE CREATING RESULTS ADDING VALUE © Copyright 2008 Gruen Gruen + Associates. Do not reproduce without written permission from Gruen Gruen + Associates. TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter Page ES EXECUTIVE SUMMARY............................................................................................. 1 INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................... 1 PURPOSE ................................................................................................................... 1 PRINCIPAL FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS............................................. 1 PRIMARY TRADE AREA DEFINITION ......................................................... 1 RETAIL SUPPLY IN SCOTTS VALLEY............................................................ 2 RETAIL SUPPLY OUTSIDE OF SCOTTS VALLEY WITHIN THE PRIMARY TRADE AREA ..................... 2 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ESTIMATED GENERAL MERCHANDISE DEMAND AND SUPPLY.............................. 3 ESTIMATES OF SALES LEAKAGE AND SURPLUS ................................... 4 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ESTIMATED RETAIL DEMAND AND SUPPLY .......................................... 4 THE OPERATION OF THE PROPOSED TARGET STORE WILL REDUCE OUT-FLOWS OF CONSUMER EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL AND INCREASE IN-FLOWS OF SALES DOLLARS TO THE RETAIL BASE OF SCOTTS VALLEY... 5 ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL SALES DIVERSION AND COMPETITIVE EFFECTS AS RESULT OF THE OPENING OF THE PROPOSED TARGET STORE .......................... 5 NET FISCAL IMPACT OF OPERATION OF PROPOSED TARGET STORE.......................................... 6 ECONOMIC IMPACT OF OPERATION OF PROPOSED TARGET STORE.......................................... 7 Economic Impact of Construction.......................................................................... 7 Economic Impact of Retail Sales ............................................................................. 7 SPILLOVER IMPACT OF PROPOSED TARGET STORE .......................... 7 i TABLE OF CONTENTS, Continued Chapter Page I INTRODUCTION AND STUDY PURPOSE .......................................................... 10 INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................... 10 PURPOSE ................................................................................................................... 10 REPORT ORGANIZATION................................................................................. 11 II DEFINITION OF PRIMARY TRADE AREA......................................................... 12 INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................... 12 PRIMARY TRADE AREA DEFINITION ......................................................... 12 III RETAIL SPACE SUPPLY WITHIN THE PRIMARY TRADE AREA............... 14 OVERVIEW............................................................................................................... 14 RETAIL SUPPLY IN SCOTTS VALLEY............................................................ 14 Kings Village ............................................................................................................... 16 Scotts Village ............................................................................................................... 17 Scotts Valley Square ................................................................................................... 19 Scotts Valley Junction ................................................................................................ 20 Graham Plaza .............................................................................................................. 21 Scotts Valley Corners................................................................................................. 21 ADDITIONAL SUPPLY OF RETAIL SPACE WITHIN PRIMARY TRADE AREA..................................................... 22 IV THE DEMAND FOR GENERAL MERCHANDISE SPACE AND THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GENERAL MERCHANDISE SPACE DEMAND AND SUPPLY WITHIN THE PRIMARY TRADE AREA.............. 27 INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................... 27 ii TABLE OF CONTENTS, Continued Chapter Page ESTIMATE OF RESIDENTS AND INCOME WITHIN THE PRIMARY TRADE AREA...................................... 27 RETAIL GENERAL MERCHANDISE EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL WITHIN PRIMARY TRADE AREA........ 29 Estimated Expenditure Potential for General Merchandise Goods at Alternative Expenditure Assumptions ........................... 30 ESTIMATED SUPPORTABLE SPACE DEMAND......................................... 32 Sales Thresholds for All Types of Retail Goods and Services............................. 32 Estimated Amount of Supportable General Merchandise Space Within Primary Trade Area.................................................... 33 ESTIMATED SUPPLY OF GENERAL MERCHANDISE SPACE WITHIN PRIMARY TRADE AREA................... 34 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR GENERAL MERCHANDISE GOODS............................... 36 V LEAKAGE OF RETAIL EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL IN SCOTTS VALLEY AND THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RETAIL SPACE DEMAND AND SUPPLY WITHIN THE PRIMARY TRADE AREA.............. 38 PURPOSE OF ANALYSIS OF RETAIL SALES............................................... 38 ANALYSIS OF TAXABLE RETAIL SALES IN SCOTTS VALLEY............ 38 COMPARISON OF EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL TO RETAIL SALES 40 ESTIMATED DEMAND FOR RETAIL SPACE IN THE PRIMARY TRADE AREA ...................................................... 42 Expenditure Rate for Retail Goods ......................................................................... 42 Estimated Primary Trade Area Retail Expenditure Potential for All Retail Goods ........................................................... 43 Estimated Amount of Supportable Retail Space.................................................... 43 ESTIMATED SUPPLY OF RETAIL SPACE IN THE PRIMARY TRADE AREA ...................................................... 44 iii TABLE OF CONTENTS, Continued Chapter Page EXISTING RETAIL SPACE SUPPLY................................................................. 44 POTENTIAL FUTURE RETAIL SPACE SUPPLY.......................................... 44 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ESTIMATED RETAIL DEMAND AND SUPPLY .......................................... 45 VI AN ESTIMATE OF THE EFFECT THAT THE TARGET STORE WILL HAVE ON THE RETAIL SALES BASE OF SCOTTS VALLEY............ 46 INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................... 46 THE OPERATION OF THE PROPOSED TARGET STORE WILL REDUCE OUT-FLOWS OF CONSUMER EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL AND INCREASE IN-FLOWS OF SALES DOLLARS TO THE RETAIL BASE OF SCOTTS VALLEY... 46 ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL SALES DIVERSION AND COMPETITIVE EFFECTS AS RESULT OF OPENING OF THE PROPOSED TARGET STORE............ 46 VII FISCAL IMPACT OF THE PROPOSED TARGET STORE................................ 48 INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................... 48 METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH .................................................................. 48 2008 CONSTANT DOLLARS................................................................................ 48 DEMOGRAPHIC AND EMPLOYMENT BASELINE ASSUMPTIONS... 48 ESTIMATE OF GENERAL FUND REVENUES LIKELY TO BE GENERATED BY THE PROPOSED TARGET DEVELOPMENT... 49 SALES TAX................................................................................................................ 50 PROPERTY TAX...................................................................................................... 51 UTILITY USERS TAX............................................................................................. 52 Electricity..................................................................................................................... 52 Gas................................................................................................................................ 52 iv TABLE OF CONTENTS, Continued Chapter Page FRANCHISE FEES.................................................................................................. 53 BUSINESS LICENSE TAX .................................................................................... 54 ESTIMATED COSTS OF PROVIDING CITY SERVICES INDUCED BY THE PROPOSED TARGET STORE TO THE CITY OF SCOTTS VALLEY............................. 56 General Government................................................................................................. 57 Public Safety ................................................................................................................ 58 Public Works ............................................................................................................... 59 NET FISCAL IMPACT............................................................................................ 60 VIII ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE PROPOSED TARGET STORE...................... 62 INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................
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