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Home , Ben McAdams, Gabby Giffords, Gina Ortiz Jones, Jim Oberweis, Karen Handel, Max Rose

2020 Elections Forecasting September 8th, 2020

1 Slide Index Slides 3-19: Presidential and Vice Presidential Contest

Slide 4: Observations & Analysis Slide 5: Voting by Mail Slides 6-7: FiveThirtyEight Projections Slide 8-9: Past & Present Polling Maps Slide 10: Candidate Approval Ratings Slide 11: Impacts of the Vice Presidential Race Slide 12: Will there be a winner on Election Night? Slides 13-24: States to Watch Slides 25-38: Senate Races

Slide 26: Observations & Analysis Slide 27: Current Polling Map Slides 28-39: Races to Watch Slides 40-76: House Races

Slide 41: Observations & Analysis Slide 42: Current Polling Map Slides 43-76: Races to Watch 2 Presidential and Vice Presidential Contest

3 Observations & Analysis • The electoral college consists of 538 electors and an absolute majority is required to win the election (270 votes) • The major party nominees are Vice President (D) and President (R) • States to watch: • Leaning Democratic: Minnesota, New Hampshire • Leaning Republican: Texas, Iowa, • Tossups: , , North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin • In recent days, President Trump has suggested a COVID-19 vaccine could be approved prior to Election Day. This could be a major factor in how voters cast their votes. However, mail in voting could mean that many ballots are cast before such an announcement is made

4 Voting by Mail

• Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, most states will be conducting elections by mail • According to Charlie Cook, there will still be a high voter turnout in 2020 with the majority of votes being cast by mail, but some GOP strategists are worried that President Trump’s opposition to mail-in voting could suppress the Republican vote • Eight states begin mailing absentee ballots to voters more than 45 days before the election: Arkansas, Kentucky, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, West Virginia and Wisconsin • Fifteen states begin mailing absentee ballots to voters 45 days before the election: Alabama, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia and Wyoming • Thirteen states begin mailing absentee ballots to voters 30-45 days before the election: California, , Florida, , Maine, Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, New Hampshire, , North Dakota and South Carolina • Fourteen states mail absentee ballots to voters fewer than 30 days before the election: Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Hawaii, Iowa, Kansas, Massachusetts, Montana, Nevada, , Ohio, Oregon, and Washington • In Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah and Washington, all voters are mailed ballots

5 FiveThirtyEight Presidential Projection

● On August 12, FiveThirtyEight issued its first 2020 presidential race projection, concluding that Vice President Biden is favored to win ● In FiveThirtyEight’s most recent simulation, Biden wins 72 in 100 scenarios, while Trump wins in 28 ● Biden is comfortably ahead of Trump right now nationally and in most battleground states ● At this point in 2016, led in the polls. While she had small advantage, Trump’s win was well within the range of normal polling error ● Biden’s lead over Trump has already topped Clinton’s post-convention peak. Since Biden enjoys more overall support than Clinton did four years ago, Biden is currently thought to be in a better position than Clinton was at this point in the campaign

6 FiveThirtyEight Presidential Projection

Source: FiveThirtyEight.com September 8, 2020 7 8 Source: 270towin.com As of September 8, 2020 9 Candidate Approval Ratings Trump: • According to FiveThirtyEight, as of September 8, Trump’s approval rating is 43.2% with a 52.6% disapproval rating Biden: • According to RealClearPolitics, Biden currently holds a 48.3% favorable rating with a 46.3% unfavorable rating as of September 8. • As of July 1, Biden was polling better than any presidential challenger since in 1992. His polling advantages do not seem to be fading, and Vice President Biden may be able to buck the trend of diminishing polling leads going into the Fall • Biden received no discernible national polling bounce from the DNC, but he still maintains a clear lead

10 Impacts of the Vice Presidential Race ● Throughout electoral history, the importance of the vice presidential pick has been considered critical or immensely insignificant ● On August 11, Biden announced Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) as his running mate. The historical nature of this choice could make the race for the second office important to the outcome of November’s election ● According to the Real Clear Politics average, Harris’ favorability rating is 45.9%, 4.6 points above her 41.3% unfavorability rating as of September 8 ● Similarly, as of September 8, Vice President Pence’s favorability rating is 41.6%, 7.4 points below his 49.0% unfavorability rating

11 Will there be a winner on Election Night? ● In most states, mail-in ballots can be postmarked on or before Election Day and typically take longer to count. With more states expanding mail voting and more voters planning on voting by mail, it might be days or even weeks before all votes are counted ● An August 14th poll conducted by CNN/SRSS found that 53% of Biden supporters planned to vote by mail this election, compared to just 12% of Trump supporters ● The difference between the counting of election day results and the slower mail-in results could mean that President Trump may appear to have an early landslide lead on Election Day that could disappear as mail-in votes are counted ● A “red mirage,” or an early Trump landslide followed by a Biden win, could give Trump an opportunity to call into question the integrity of the election ● Hawkfish, a Democratic data and analytics firm, modeled how the Electoral College would shift as mail-in votes are counted and forecasted the results of the election could be unknown until up to four days later

12 States to watch

13 Minnesota

Most Recent Polling Data Real Clear Politics Compilation Data Source: Public Policy Polling Polls from August 8 (PPP) to September 4 September 4 Biden: 49.7 Biden: 52 Trump: 46 Trump: 44 Spread: Biden +3.7 Spread: Biden +8

14 New Hampshire

Most Recent Polling Data Real Clear Politics Compilation Data Source: St. Anselm August 17 Polls from January Biden: 51 20 to August 17 Trump: 43 Biden: 51.7 Spread: Biden +8 Trump: 2 Spread: Biden +9.7

15 Texas

Most Recent Polling Data Real Clear Politics Compilation Data Source: Dallas Polls from July 16 to Morning News September 2 September 2 Biden: 43.8 Biden: 46 Trump: 47.3 Trump: 48 Spread Trump: +3.5 Spread: Trump: +2

16 Iowa

Real Clear Politics Most Recent Polling Data Compilation Data

Source: Monmouth Polls from April 30 to August 3 August 3 Biden: 46 Biden: 45.0 Trump: 48 Trump: 46.7 Spread: Trump +2 Spread Trump: +1.7

17 Georgia

Most Recent Polling Data Real Clear Politics Source: Compilation Data WSB-TV/Landmark Polls from June 23 to August 31 August 31 Biden: 41 Biden: 45 Trump: 48 Trump: 46.3 Spread: Trump +7 Spread: Trump +1.3

18 Florida

Real Clear Politics Most Recent Polling Data Compilation Data Source: Trafalgar Group Polls from August 21 to September 3 September 3 Biden: 47.8 Biden: 46 Trump: 46 Trump: 49 Spread: Biden +1.8 Spread: Trump +3

19 Arizona

Most Recent Polling Data Real Clear Politics Compilation Data

Source: Polls from August 8 to September 1 September 1 Biden: 49 Biden: 49 Trump: 40 Trump: 44

Spread: Biden +9 Spread: Biden +5.0

20 North Carolina

Real Clear Politics Most Recent Polling Data Compilation Data Source: Monmouth Polls from August 8 to September 1 September 1 Biden: 48 Biden: 47.8 Trump: 46 Trump: 47.2

Spread: Biden +2 Spread: Biden +0.6

21 Pennsylvania

Most Recent Polling Data Real Clear Politics Compilation Data

Source: Polls from August Susquehanna 11 to September 4 September 4 Biden: 48.3 Biden: 44 Trump: 44.4

Trump: 42 Spread: Biden +3.9 Spread: Biden +2

22 Wisconsin

Real Clear Politics Most Recent Polling Data Compilation Data

Source: CBS News Polls from August 4 to /YouGov September 4 September 4 Biden: 49.2 Biden: 50 Trump: 44.2 Trump: 44 Spread: Biden +5.0 Spread: Biden +6

23 Michigan

Real Clear Politics Most Recent Polling Data Compilation Data

Source: Trafalgar Polls from July 26 to Group August 23 August 23 Biden: 47.3 Biden: 45 Trump: 44.7 Trump: 47 Spread: Biden +2.6 Spread: Trump +2

24 Senate Races

25 Observations & Analysis

• The current balance of the Senate is 53 Republicans to 47 Democrats. Two independents caucus with the Democrats • The Democrats need to flip three seats and the Vice Presidency to win control of the Senate. If President Trump is re-elected, Democrats will need to flip four seats to win control • This year, Republicans are on the defensive, defending 23 seats. Democrats are only defending 12 • Republicans are at risk of losing a significant number of women in the Senate • The RCP Generic Ballot gives Democrats an 8-point lead. says control of the Senate is too close to call. The Cook Political Report now predicts Democrats will win the Senate

26 Source: 270towin.com As of September 8, 2020 27 Races to watch

28 Arizona (as of September 8) (Cook: Lean D, Sabato: Lean D, RCP: Kelly +11.3%)

Democrat: Republican: Martha McSally (I)

• Former Astronaut • Was appointed to the seat • Married to former Rep. in 2019 Gabby , who was • McSally ran for Arizona’s injured in a shooting in other Senate seat in 2018 Tucson in 2011 and lost to Senator Sinema • Served in the First Gulf • DSCC emphasizing that War she was not elected to the seat

29 Colorado (as of September 8) (Cook: Toss-up, Sabato: Lean D, RCP:Leans Dem)

Democrat: John Hickenlooper Republican: Cory Gardner (I) • Former Governor of • Widely considered the most Colorado, business owner vulnerable Republican in the • Ran for President in 2020, Senate this year dropped out before any • One of two Republican primary votes were cast Senators facing reelection in • Known for refusing to run a state President Trump lost negative ads in 2016

30 Maine (as of September 8) (Cook: Toss-up, Sabato: Toss-up, RCP: Gideon +4.5%)

Democrat: Sara Gideon Republican: Susan Collins (I) • Speaker of the Maine • Moderate, votes with House of Representatives President Trump only • Fundraising nationally 66% of the time using Susan Collins’ • Nationally unpopular for unpopular votes votes on Justice Kavanaugh and other issues

31 North Carolina (as of September 8) (Cook: Toss-up, Sabato: Toss-up, RCP: Cunningham +4)

Democrat: Cal Cunningham Republican: Thom Tillis (I) • U.S. Army Reservist, has • Dealing with fallout from served as counsel in Senator Burr’s accusations multiple court-martials of insider trading in the • Former State Senator, Coronavirus crisis worked for a • Worked with Cambridge waste-reduction consulting Analytica in 2014 campaign firm

32 Alabama (as of September 8) (Cook: Lean R, Sabato: Likely R, RCP: Likely GOP)

Democrat: Doug Jones (I) Republican: Tommy Tuberville • Narrowly won in 2017 • Tuberville was a college Special Election due to football coach at Auburn unpopularity of his opponent University • Most vulnerable Democrat in • Endorsed by and heavily the Senate this year, running backed by President Trump in a state that Trump will win by a wide margin

33 Michigan (as of September 2nd) (Cook: Lean D, Sabato: Lean D, RCP: Peters +4.7%)

Democrat: Gary Peters (I) Republican: John James • Manages to win tight • Businessman, ran for races with a low Senate in 2018 and lost national profile • Army veteran • Peters was the only • Worked for his family’s non-incumbent supply chain company Democrat elected to the Senate in 2014

34 Georgia (as of September 8) (Cook: Toss-up, Sabato: Lean R, RCP: Perdue +4.0)

Democrat: Republican: (I) • Narrowly lost in 2017 • One of the wealthiest special election to Karen Senators Handel • Touted his business • Previously worked in experience in 2014 television news campaign production

35 Georgia Special Election (as of September 8) (Cook: Lean R, Sabato: Likely R, RCP: Loeffler +4.3%)

• This special election is to fill the seat left open by the resignation of due to health reasons • Kelly Loeffler is the interim holder of the seat • Currently subject to controversy surrounding insider trading before the Coronavirus crisis, but has been cleared by investigators • The election is an open primary, potential January runoff; Potential Democratic candidates include Matt Lieberman and Raphael Warnock, Warnock is supported by DCCC • Potential Republican candidates include Loeffler and Rep. Doug Collins

36 Iowa (as of September 8) (Cook: Toss-up, Sabato: Toss-up, RCP: Greenfield +0.3%)

Democrat: Theresa Greenfield Republican: Joni Ernst (I) • 2018 House campaign was • Army veteran, served in disqualified because of Kuwait falsified signatures • May be hurt by her ties to • Has worked as a real Rep. Steve King, who is estate developer and is closely linked to white campaigning with support supremacists from labor unions

37 Kansas (as of September 8) (Cook: Lean R, Sabato: Likely R, RCP: Likely GOP)

Democrat: Barbara Bollier Republican: Roger Marshall • Dr. Bollier is a physician and • Beat Kris Kobach in hotly KS State Senator contested primary, delivering • Left the Republican Party in a win to the party 2018 establishment • Switched parties after KS • His candidacy makes this a Republicans included harder flip for Democrats anti-trans language in the party platform

38 Montana (as of September 8) (Cook: Toss-Up, Sabato: Lean R, RCP: Daines +2%)

Democrat: Steve Bullock Republican: Steve Daines (I) • Polling has Bullock in the • Could be boosted by lead President Trump’s • Current Governor of popularity in Montana Montana, very popular • Worked for Rep. Gianforte • Instituted a mask before being elected to mandate in Montana congress

39 House Races

40 Observations & Analysis

• In this cycle, the DCC has identified 42 frontline members and is supporting 33 candidates in its Red to Blue program • In 2018, Democrats picked up 40 seats in the House to win control for the first time since 2010. Polling favors Democrats to claim a larger majority this year • There are currently 232 Democrats, 198 Republicans, and 1 Libertarian in the House. 218 seats are needed for control. Four seats are currently vacant • Races the the Cook Political Report rate as safe, likely, or leaning Democratic total 221 seats, giving Democrats control • Cook Political Report recently moved its ratings for 20 races toward Democratic victories

41 Source: 270towin.com As of September 8, 2020 42 Races to watch

43 Florida District 26 (Cook: Toss-up, Sabato: Lean D, Politico: Lean D)

Democrat: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (I) Republican: Carlos Giménez • Former university • Born in Cuba administrator for the FIU • Miami-Dade County School of Medicine Commissioner 2003-2011 • Ecuadorian immigrant • Mayor of Miami-Dade from a working-class County (nonpartisan background position)

44 Texas District 22 (Cook: Toss-up, Sabato: Toss-up, Politico: Toss-up)

Democrat: Sri Preston Kulkarni Republican: Troy Nehls • Ran for the seat in 2018 • Currently serves as the • Resigned from the foreign Fort Bend County Sheriff service in 2017 after • U.S. Army veteran Charlottesville • Strong supporter of demonstrations and President Trump President Trump’s comments

45 Texas District 23 (Cook: Lean D, Sabato: Lean D, Politico: Lean D)

Democrat: Gina Ortiz Jones Republican: • Worked at the office of the • Career Cryptologist in the U.S. Trade Representative U.S. Navy (1999-2019) • Ran for this seat in 2018, • Former Department of lost to incumbent Defense Legislative Fellow • Former intelligence officer for Sen. Marco Rubio

46 Texas District 24 (Cook: Toss-up, Sabato: Toss-up, Politico: Toss-up)

Democrat: Candace Valenzuela Republican: Beth Van Duyne • Would be the first • Former mayor of Irving, TX Afro-Latina Member of • Regional administrator for Congress the U.S. Department of • Currently serves on the local Housing and Urban School Board of Trustees Development

47 Texas District 32 (Cook: Lean D, Sabato: Likely D, Politico: Lean D)

Democrat: Colin Allred (I) Republican: Genevieve Collins • Beat former Rep. Pete • First woman to be elected Sessions in 2018 to the Dallas City Council • Former pro Football player • Entrepreneur in with the Tennessee Titans educational technology

48 New Jersey District 2 (Cook: Lean R, Sabato: Lean R, Politico: Lean R)

Democrat: Amy Kennedy Republican: Likely Jeff Van Drew (I) • Married to Former Rep. Patrick Kennedy • Switched from • A shock to Democratic Democratic Party to politicians in South Republican Party in Jersey, a win for Gov. January in response to Murphy, who endorsed the impeachment of Kennedy President Trump

49 Pennsylvania District 10 (Cook: Toss-up, Sabato: Lean R, Politico: Toss-up)

Democrat: Eugene DePasquale Republican: Scott Perry (I) • Currently serves as the • 2018 redistricting made this Pennsylvania Auditor district less Republican General • Fought in Iraq for the U.S. • Won two state-wide Army elections • Faced accusations of altering state records in 2002, avoided charges

50 Georgia District 6 (Cook: Lean D, Sabato: Lean D, Politico: Toss-up)

Democrat: Lucy McBath (I) Republican: Karen Handel • Beat Rep. Karen Handel, • Lost to Rep. McBath in who beat Jon Ossoff in 2018 after serving one 2017 special election term • Ran for Congress after • Voted with President her son died in an Trump on everything incident of gun violence except sanctions on Russia

51 Georgia District 7 (Cook: Toss-up, Sabato: Toss-up, Politico: Toss-up)

Democrat: Carolyn Bourdeaux Republican: Rich McCormick • Narrowly lost this seat in • Marine Corps veteran who 2018 served in • Worked to balance the • Emergency room doctor state budget in 2009 • Was endorsed by Senator • Professor at Georgia State in the Republican University Primary

52 California District 25 (Cook: Toss-up, Sabato: Toss-up, Politico: Toss-up)

Democrat: Christy Smith Republican: Mike Garcia (I) • Current state • Elected in special assemblywoman election following the • Lost special election to resignation of Katie Hill Rep. Garcia in May • Veteran and former Raytheon employee

53 Utah District 4 (Cook: Toss-up, Sabato: Lean D, Politico: Toss-up)

Democrat: Ben McAdams (I) Republican: • Beat Rep. by • Former pro football 694 votes in 2018 player for the New York • Former mayor of Salt Jets and Oakland Lake County Raiders • Blue Dog Democrat • Vocal critic of Kaepernick and anthem protests

54 Iowa District 1 (Cook: Toss-up, Sabato: Toss-up, Politico: Toss-up)

Democrat: Abby Finkenauer (I) Republican: Ashley Hinson • Second-youngest woman • Current member of Iowa to be elected to the House State House • Freshman member, • Former popular local news formerly Iowa House anchor in Iowa member

55 Iowa District 2 (Cook: Toss-up, Sabato: Lean D, Politico: Lean D)

Democrat: Rita Hart Republican: Mariannette Miller-Meeks • Former State Senator • Nominee for Lieutenant • Doctor and Air Force Governor in 2018 veteran • Soy farmer • Former director of Iowa Department of Public Health

56 Iowa District 3 (Cook: Toss-up, Sabato: Lean D, Politico: Toss-up)

Democrat: Cindy Axne (I) Republican: David Young • Former consultant for • Former Representative, divisions of Iowa state lost this seat to Axne in government 2018 • Education activist in Des • Worked for Senator Moines Grassley before being elected in 2014

57 Illinois District 13 (Cook: Toss-up, Sabato: Lean R, Politico: Toss-up)

Democrat: Betsy Londrigan Republican: Rodney Davis (I) • Advocate for keeping • Most of his elections have current Obamacare had close margins, with regulations the 2018 campaign being • Lost to Rep. Davis in especially close 2018 • Worked for Rep. Shimkus

58 Illinois District 14 (Cook: Lean D, Sabato: Lean D, Politico: Lean D)

Democrat: (I) Republican: Jim Oberweis • Well known for being a nurse • Current Illinois state Senator • Represents a conservative • Has lost many federal suburban district but has a elections in the past very liberal voting record in • Ran for this seat after Dennis the House Hastert retired

59 Indiana District 5 (Cook: Toss-up, Sabato: Toss-up, Politico: Lean R)

Democrat: Christina Hale Republican: Victoria Spartz • Member of State House • Ukrainian immigrant • Ran for Lt. Governor in • Was appointed to 2016 and lost Indiana Senate in 2017 • Has Cuban family • Pro-Trump

60 Maine District 2 (Cook: Toss-up, Sabato: Toss-up, Politico: Toss-up)

Democrat: Jared Golden (I) Republican: Dale Crafts • Marine Corps veteran • Supported by former • Elected in 2018 by Governor Paul LePage ranked-choice voting • Former member of • Former member of State House of leadership in Maine Representatives House

61 New Mexico District 2 (Cook: Toss-up, Sabato: Lean D, Politico: Toss-up)

Democrat: Xochitl Torres Small (I) Republican: • Narrowly won in 2018 • Lost to Torres Small in 2018 • Blue dog Democrat • Former member of New • Represents a border district Mexico House and has visited detention • Member of the Cherokee centers during her term nation

62 New York District 2 (Cook: Toss-up, Sabato: Lean R, Politico: Lean R)

Democrat: Jackie Gordon Republican: Andrew Garbarino • Born in Jamaica, grew up • This seat is open after the in Queens retirement of Rep. Peter • Army combat veteran King • First African-American • Garbarino is a current member of the Babylon member of the state town council assembly

63 New York District 11 (Cook: Toss-up, Sabato: Toss-up, Politico: Toss-up)

Democrat: Max Rose (I) Republican: • Army Veteran, served in • State Assemblywoman for Afghanistan and • Awarded a • Ran for Mayor of New York • Has called for deployment in 2017 of national guard in New York

64 New York District 22 (Cook: Toss-up, Sabato: Toss-up, Politico: Toss-up)

Democrat: (I) Republican: Claudia Tenney • Former member of New • Previously represented this York State Assembly seat, lost to Brindisi in • Was endorsed by the NRA 2018 in 2016 local race, given an • Tea Party member and F by the NRA during 2018 unpopular with Congressional election Republicans in her district

65 Oklahoma District 5 (Cook: Toss-up, Sabato: Toss-up, Politico: Toss-up)

Democrat: (I) Republican: Stephanie Bice • Represents most of Oklahoma City • Has served in the • First Democrat elected Oklahoma Senate since to the House from 2014 Oklahoma since 2010 • Iranian-American • Blue Dog Democrat • Fourth-generation Oklahoman

66 South Carolina District 1 (Cook: Toss-up, Sabato: Toss-up, Politico: Toss-up)

Democrat: Joe Cunningham (I) Republican: Nancy Mace • Represents most of South • First woman to graduate Carolina’s Atlantic Coast from The Citadel • Former lawyer • Currently serves in the South Carolina State House

67 Montana At-Large (Cook: Lean R, Sabato: Likely R, Politico: Likely R)

Democrat: Kathleen Williams Republican: Matt Rosendale • Lost to Rep. Gianforte in • Lost U.S. Senate election 2018 to Jon Tester in 2018 • Former member of State • Ranch owner and Legislature outdoorsman • Advocate for rural issues • Former State Senate in Montana Majority Leader

68 Nebraska District 2 (Cook: Toss-Up, Sabato: Lean R, Politico: Lean R)

Democrat: Kara Eastman Republican: Don Bacon (I) • Social worker and • Air Force veteran non-profit founder • Served at bases in focusing on children’s Germany and Nebraska health and public until 2014 housing • Worked in the office of • Lost to Rep. Bacon in Rep. Fortenberry 2018

69 Ohio District 1 (Cook: Toss-Up, Sabato: Lean R, Politico: Lean R)

Democrat: Kate Schroder Republican: Steve Chabot (I) • Member of the Cincinnati • Lifelong politician Board of Health • Elected to office in • Worked for the Clinton Cincinnati, followed by Foundation on health Hamilton County access in Africa • First elected to Congress in 1994

70 Minnesota District 2 (Cook: Lean D, Sabato: Likely D, Politico: Lean D)

Democrat: Angie Craig (I) Republican: Tyler Kistner • First openly gay • Marine Corps veteran • Worked on from MN counterterrorism and • Former journalist and countering Russia and hospital HR manager China

71 Minnesota District 7 (Cook: Toss-up, Sabato: Toss-up, Politico: Toss-up)

Democrat: Collin Peterson (I) Republican: Michelle • Has represented this Fischbach district since 1990 • 49th Lieutenant Governor • Most of his reelections of MN from 2018-2019 have been very large wins • First female President of • Said he is energized by the MN State Senate from Republican pressure to January 2011 to January retire 2013

72 Alaska At-Large (Cook: Lean R, Sabato: Likely R, Politico: Likely R)

Democrat: Alyse Galvin (I) Republican: Don Young (I) • Lost in 2018 general • Has represented Alaska election in the House for 47 • Third generation Alaskan years • Worked for Great Alaska • Has faced corruption Schools and Governor accusations during his Bill Walker’s Education career Transition Team

73 Virginia District 2 (Cook: Toss-up, Sabato: Lean D, Politico: Toss-up)

Democrat: Elaine Luria (I) Republican: Scott Taylor • Defeated Taylor in 2018 • Former Navy SEAL • Served as a Navy • Represented VA-02 officer for 20 years from 2017 to 2019 before running for office

74 Virginia District 5 (Cook: Lean R, Sabato: Lean R, Politico: Lean R)

Democrat: Cameron Webb Republican: Bob Good • Teaches and practices at • Beat incumbent Rep. UVA School of Medicine Riggleman in the party • Was a White House convention after Fellow during the attacking him for Obama Administration officiating a same-sex wedding

75 Virginia District 7 (Cook: Toss-up, Sabato: Lean D, Politico: Toss-up)

Democrat: Abigail Spanberger Republican: Nick Freitas • Beat Dave Brat in 2018 • Ran for the Republican • Did not vote for Speaker Senate nomination in 2018 Pelosi in 2019 and lost to Corey Stewart • Former CIA operative • Won a write-in campaign for his House of Delegates seat

76 Plurus Strategies

David Leiter: [email protected]

Georgette (Spanjich) Kerr: [email protected]

Olivia Gardner: [email protected]

Paul Eppler: [email protected]

Claire Washburn: [email protected]

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