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2020 Elections Forecasting September 8Th, 2020

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2020 Elections Forecasting September 8Th, 2020 2020 Elections Forecasting September 8th, 2020 1 Slide Index Slides 3-19: Presidential and Vice Presidential Contest Slide 4: Observations & Analysis Slide 5: Voting by Mail Slides 6-7: FiveThirtyEight Projections Slide 8-9: Past & Present Polling Maps Slide 10: Candidate Approval Ratings Slide 11: Impacts of the Vice Presidential Race Slide 12: Will there be a winner on Election Night? Slides 13-24: States to Watch Slides 25-38: Senate Races Slide 26: Observations & Analysis Slide 27: Current Polling Map Slides 28-39: Races to Watch Slides 40-76: House Races Slide 41: Observations & Analysis Slide 42: Current Polling Map Slides 43-76: Races to Watch 2 Presidential and Vice Presidential Contest 3 Observations & Analysis • The electoral college consists of 538 electors and an absolute majority is required to win the election (270 votes) • The major party nominees are Vice President Joe Biden (D) and President Donald Trump (R) • States to watch: • Leaning Democratic: Minnesota, New Hampshire • Leaning Republican: Texas, Iowa, Georgia • Tossups: Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin • In recent days, President Trump has suggested a COVID-19 vaccine could be approved prior to Election Day. This could be a major factor in how voters cast their votes. However, mail in voting could mean that many ballots are cast before such an announcement is made 4 Voting by Mail • Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, most states will be conducting elections by mail • According to Charlie Cook, there will still be a high voter turnout in 2020 with the majority of votes being cast by mail, but some GOP strategists are worried that President Trump’s opposition to mail-in voting could suppress the Republican vote • Eight states begin mailing absentee ballots to voters more than 45 days before the election: Arkansas, Kentucky, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, West Virginia and Wisconsin • Fifteen states begin mailing absentee ballots to voters 45 days before the election: Alabama, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia and Wyoming • Thirteen states begin mailing absentee ballots to voters 30-45 days before the election: California, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New York, North Dakota and South Carolina • Fourteen states mail absentee ballots to voters fewer than 30 days before the election: Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Hawaii, Iowa, Kansas, Massachusetts, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Utah and Washington • In Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah and Washington, all voters are mailed ballots 5 FiveThirtyEight Presidential Projection ● On August 12, FiveThirtyEight issued its first 2020 presidential race projection, concluding that Vice President Biden is favored to win ● In FiveThirtyEight’s most recent simulation, Biden wins 72 in 100 scenarios, while Trump wins in 28 ● Biden is comfortably ahead of Trump right now nationally and in most battleground states ● At this point in 2016, Hillary Clinton led in the polls. While she had small advantage, Trump’s win was well within the range of normal polling error ● Biden’s lead over Trump has already topped Clinton’s post-convention peak. Since Biden enjoys more overall support than Clinton did four years ago, Biden is currently thought to be in a better position than Clinton was at this point in the campaign 6 FiveThirtyEight Presidential Projection Source: FiveThirtyEight.com September 8, 2020 7 8 Source: 270towin.com As of September 8, 2020 9 Candidate Approval Ratings Trump: • According to FiveThirtyEight, as of September 8, Trump’s approval rating is 43.2% with a 52.6% disapproval rating Biden: • According to RealClearPolitics, Biden currently holds a 48.3% favorable rating with a 46.3% unfavorable rating as of September 8. • As of July 1, Biden was polling better than any presidential challenger since Bill Clinton in 1992. His polling advantages do not seem to be fading, and Vice President Biden may be able to buck the trend of diminishing polling leads going into the Fall • Biden received no discernible national polling bounce from the DNC, but he still maintains a clear lead 10 Impacts of the Vice Presidential Race ● Throughout electoral history, the importance of the vice presidential pick has been considered critical or immensely insignificant ● On August 11, Biden announced Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) as his running mate. The historical nature of this choice could make the race for the second office important to the outcome of November’s election ● According to the Real Clear Politics average, Harris’ favorability rating is 45.9%, 4.6 points above her 41.3% unfavorability rating as of September 8 ● Similarly, as of September 8, Vice President Pence’s favorability rating is 41.6%, 7.4 points below his 49.0% unfavorability rating 11 Will there be a winner on Election Night? ● In most states, mail-in ballots can be postmarked on or before Election Day and typically take longer to count. With more states expanding mail voting and more voters planning on voting by mail, it might be days or even weeks before all votes are counted ● An August 14th poll conducted by CNN/SRSS found that 53% of Biden supporters planned to vote by mail this election, compared to just 12% of Trump supporters ● The difference between the counting of election day results and the slower mail-in results could mean that President Trump may appear to have an early landslide lead on Election Day that could disappear as mail-in votes are counted ● A “red mirage,” or an early Trump landslide followed by a Biden win, could give Trump an opportunity to call into question the integrity of the election ● Hawkfish, a Democratic data and analytics firm, modeled how the Electoral College would shift as mail-in votes are counted and forecasted the results of the election could be unknown until up to four days later 12 States to watch 13 Minnesota Most Recent Polling Data Real Clear Politics Compilation Data Source: Public Policy Polling Polls from August 8 (PPP) to September 4 September 4 Biden: 49.7 Biden: 52 Trump: 46 Trump: 44 Spread: Biden +3.7 Spread: Biden +8 14 New Hampshire Most Recent Polling Data Real Clear Politics Compilation Data Source: St. Anselm August 17 Polls from January Biden: 51 20 to August 17 Trump: 43 Biden: 51.7 Spread: Biden +8 Trump: 2 Spread: Biden +9.7 15 Texas Most Recent Polling Data Real Clear Politics Compilation Data Source: Dallas Polls from July 16 to Morning News September 2 September 2 Biden: 43.8 Biden: 46 Trump: 47.3 Trump: 48 Spread Trump: +3.5 Spread: Trump: +2 16 Iowa Real Clear Politics Most Recent Polling Data Compilation Data Source: Monmouth Polls from April 30 to August 3 August 3 Biden: 46 Biden: 45.0 Trump: 48 Trump: 46.7 Spread: Trump +2 Spread Trump: +1.7 17 Georgia Most Recent Polling Data Real Clear Politics Source: Compilation Data WSB-TV/Landmark Polls from June 23 to August 31 August 31 Biden: 41 Biden: 45 Trump: 48 Trump: 46.3 Spread: Trump +7 Spread: Trump +1.3 18 Florida Real Clear Politics Most Recent Polling Data Compilation Data Source: Trafalgar Group Polls from August 21 to September 3 September 3 Biden: 47.8 Biden: 46 Trump: 46 Trump: 49 Spread: Biden +1.8 Spread: Trump +3 19 Arizona Most Recent Polling Data Real Clear Politics Compilation Data Source: Fox News Polls from August 8 to September 1 September 1 Biden: 49 Biden: 49 Trump: 40 Trump: 44 Spread: Biden +9 Spread: Biden +5.0 20 North Carolina Real Clear Politics Most Recent Polling Data Compilation Data Source: Monmouth Polls from August 8 to September 1 September 1 Biden: 48 Biden: 47.8 Trump: 46 Trump: 47.2 Spread: Biden +2 Spread: Biden +0.6 21 Pennsylvania Most Recent Polling Data Real Clear Politics Compilation Data Source: Polls from August Susquehanna 11 to September 4 September 4 Biden: 48.3 Biden: 44 Trump: 44.4 Trump: 42 Spread: Biden +3.9 Spread: Biden +2 22 Wisconsin Real Clear Politics Most Recent Polling Data Compilation Data Source: CBS News Polls from August 4 to /YouGov September 4 September 4 Biden: 49.2 Biden: 50 Trump: 44.2 Trump: 44 Spread: Biden +5.0 Spread: Biden +6 23 Michigan Real Clear Politics Most Recent Polling Data Compilation Data Source: Trafalgar Polls from July 26 to Group August 23 August 23 Biden: 47.3 Biden: 45 Trump: 44.7 Trump: 47 Spread: Biden +2.6 Spread: Trump +2 24 Senate Races 25 Observations & Analysis • The current balance of the Senate is 53 Republicans to 47 Democrats. Two independents caucus with the Democrats • The Democrats need to flip three seats and the Vice Presidency to win control of the Senate. If President Trump is re-elected, Democrats will need to flip four seats to win control • This year, Republicans are on the defensive, defending 23 seats. Democrats are only defending 12 • Republicans are at risk of losing a significant number of women in the Senate • The RCP Generic Ballot gives Democrats an 8-point lead. Politico says control of the Senate is too close to call. The Cook Political Report now predicts Democrats will win the Senate 26 Source: 270towin.com As of September 8, 2020 27 Races to watch 28 Arizona (as of September 8) (Cook: Lean D, Sabato: Lean D, RCP: Kelly +11.3%) Democrat: Mark Kelly Republican: Martha McSally (I) • Former Astronaut • Was appointed to the seat • Married to former Rep. in 2019 Gabby Giffords, who was • McSally ran for Arizona’s injured in a shooting in other Senate seat in 2018 Tucson in 2011 and lost to Senator Sinema
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