Supporting Commercial Space Development Part 1
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Supporting Commercial Space Development Supporting Commercial Space Development Part 1: Support Alternatives versus Investor Risk Perceptions & Tolerances November 2010 This report, “Supporting Commercial Space Development Part 1: Support Alternatives versus Investor Risk Perceptions & Tolerances” was developed with government funding under Contract Order Number NNH11CD08D awarded by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and may be released by NASA in whole or in part. The views expressed in this report are those of Near Earth LLC and may not reflect the views of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration or the United States Government. Part 1 1 of 228 Supporting Commercial Space Development “When a new frontier is opened, the new territory always looks vast, empty, hostile, and unrewarding. It is always dangerous to go there, and almost impossible to live there in loneliness and peril. The technological capacities of the time are always taxed to the utmost in dealing with the new environment. The explorations require huge investments of both public and private funds, and the returns are always hazardous at first…The organization, capital, and equipment required for the first exploratory efforts are so large that people tend at first to think only in terms of governmental and military actions; and only later do they conceive the new territory as simply an extension of their present territory and their present economy….an effort of prophetic imagination is what is required of us as citizens, so that we will not…leave the making of the future to others.” - Ralph J. Cordiner, Chairman of General Electric Company, 1961 CONTACT INFORMATION For parties wishing to learn more about the report described herein, additional information can be made available. Near Earth LLC 380 Lexington Avenue, 17th Floor New York, NY 10016 www.nearearthllc.com Hoyt Davidson John Stone Ian Fichtenbaum Managing Partner Partner Associate (212) 551-7960 (646) 290-7796 (646) 290-7794 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Part 1 2 of 228 Supporting Commercial Space Development Table of Contents 1 INTRODUCTION .........................................................................................................7 1.1 AUTHORS’ QUALIFICATIONS ..............................................................................................9 1.2 METHOD AND APPROACH .............................................................................................. 10 1.3 DEFINITION OF “COMMERCIAL SPACE” .............................................................................. 13 1.4 SUMMARY OF NASA OBJECTIVES ..................................................................................... 15 1.5 SUMMARY OF REPORT SECTIONS ...................................................................................... 15 2 FINDINGS, CONCLUSIONS & OPTIONS ....................................................................... 18 2.1 FINDINGS ................................................................................................................... 18 2.1.1 INVESTOR RISK PERCEPTION 18 2.1.2 INVESTOR INTEREST IN SPACE 19 2.1.3 LESSONS LEARNED FROM PRIOR INVESTMENTS 20 2.1.4 NASA’S COMMERCIAL SPACE SUPPORT PROGRAMS 23 2.2 CONCLUSIONS & OPTIONS ............................................................................................. 24 2.2.1 IMPROVING PERCEPTIONS 25 2.2.2 FOSTERING INNOVATION 27 2.2.3 SUPPORTING TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT 28 2.2.4 DEMONSTRATING NEW CAPABILITIES 29 2.2.5 VALIDATING MARKETS 30 2.2.6 ENHANCING CAPITAL FORMATION 31 3 RISKS ....................................................................................................................... 33 3.1 TECHNICAL RISKS ......................................................................................................... 34 3.1.1 DEVELOPING NEW TECHNOLOGIES 34 3.1.2 DIFFICULTY OF MANUFACTURING AND INTEGRATING SPACE SYSTEMS 35 3.1.3 TECHNICAL OBSOLESCENCE RISK 35 3.1.4 LAUNCH, OPERATIONAL, AND RE-ENTRY RISKS 36 3.2 MARKET RISKS ............................................................................................................ 37 3.2.1 MARKET SIZE 38 3.2.2 MARKET QUALITY AND RELIABILITY 39 3.2.3 MARKET DEVELOPMENT TIMING 41 3.2.4 MARKET LONGEVITY 41 3.2.5 MARKET UNCERTAINTY 42 3.3 FINANCIAL RISKS .......................................................................................................... 42 3.3.1 MAGNITUDE OF CAPITAL REQUIRED 43 Part 1 3 of 228 Supporting Commercial Space Development 3.3.2 TIMING OF CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS 44 3.3.3 INVESTMENT HORIZON AND LIQUIDITY 46 3.3.4 FINANCIAL PROJECTION UNCERTAINTY 48 3.3.5 RETURN ON INVESTMENT 49 3.4 COMPETITIVE RISKS ...................................................................................................... 49 3.4.1 AMOUNT OF COMPETITION 50 3.4.2 NATURE OF COMPETITION 51 3.4.3 BARRIERS TO ENTRY 52 3.5 POLITICAL AND REGULATORY RISKS .................................................................................. 53 3.5.1 GOVERNMENT POLICY & SPACE BUDGETS 54 3.5.2 REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AND COMPLIANCE COSTS 55 3.6 PERCEPTION RISKS ....................................................................................................... 57 3.7 EXECUTION AND OPERATING RISKS .................................................................................. 59 3.7.1 MANAGEMENT QUALITY 59 3.7.2 AVAILABILITY OF QUALIFIED EMPLOYEES 60 3.8 RISKS INHERENT IN OPERATING IN SPACE ............................................................................ 60 4 INVESTORS .............................................................................................................. 62 4.1 FOUNDERS, FRIENDS & FAMILY ....................................................................................... 63 4.1.1 DESCRIPTION 63 4.1.2 TYPICAL INVESTMENTS 64 4.1.3 HOW NASA CAN HELP 64 4.1.4 RISK MAPPING 65 4.2 ANGELS AND ANGEL GROUPS .......................................................................................... 66 4.2.1 DESCRIPTION 66 4.2.2 TYPICAL INVESTMENTS 66 4.2.3 HOW NASA CAN HELP 67 4.2.4 RISK MAPPING 68 4.3 SPACE CAPITALISTS: HIGH NET WORTH SPACE ENTHUSIASTS .................................................. 69 4.3.1 DESCRIPTION 69 4.3.2 TYPICAL INVESTMENTS 70 4.3.3 HOW CAN NASA HELP 70 4.3.4 RISK MAPPING 71 4.4 VENTURE CAPITAL INVESTORS ......................................................................................... 72 4.4.1 DESCRIPTION 72 4.4.2 TYPICAL INVESTMENTS 72 4.4.3 HOW CAN NASA HELP 75 4.4.4 RISK MAPPING 76 4.5 PRIVATE EQUITY INVESTORS ........................................................................................... 77 4.5.1 DESCRIPTION 77 Part 1 4 of 228 Supporting Commercial Space Development 4.5.2 TYPICAL INVESTMENTS 78 4.5.3 HOW CAN NASA HELP 81 4.5.4 RISK MAPPING 83 4.6 STRATEGIC CORPORATE INVESTORS ................................................................................... 84 4.6.1 DESCRIPTION 84 4.6.2 TYPICAL INVESTMENTS 84 4.6.3 HOW CAN NASA HELP 86 4.6.4 RISK MAPPING 86 4.7 INVESTOR RISKS COMPARED ............................................................................................ 87 5 INVESTMENTS .......................................................................................................... 88 5.1 SELECT COMMERCIAL SPACE AND SATELLITE DEALS ................................................................ 88 5.1.1 SIGNIFICANT COMMERCIAL SATELLITE FINANCINGS 88 5.1.2 SIGNIFICANT COMMERCIAL SPACE FINANCINGS 89 5.2 CASE STUDIES ............................................................................................................. 91 5.2.1 ROTARY ROCKET 91 5.2.2 ORBITAL RECOVERY 93 5.2.3 BLASTOFF! 97 5.2.4 NEAP (A PROJECT OF SPACEDEV) 100 5.2.5 ORBITAL SCIENCES 102 5.2.6 IOSTAR 105 5.2.7 BEAL AEROSPACE 107 5.2.8 X-33/VENTURESTAR 109 5.2.9 SPACEX 112 5.2.10 KISTLER AEROSPACE (ALSO ROCKETPLANE KISTLER) 114 5.2.11 DC-X 120 5.2.12 SPACEHAB 123 5.2.13 XM SATELLITE RADIO (NOW SIRIUS XM RADIO, INC.) 130 5.2.14 GEOEYE (FORMERLY ORBIMAGE & SPACE IMAGING) 136 6 CURRENT SUPPORT ACTIVITIES ............................................................................... 142 6.1 NASA CONTRACTS ..................................................................................................... 142 6.2 COOPERATIVE AGREEMENT GRANTS ............................................................................... 147 6.3 FUNDED STUDIES ........................................................................................................ 149 6.4 NASA TECHNOLOGY DEMO MISSIONS ............................................................................. 150 6.5 SPACE ACT AGREEMENTS ............................................................................................. 153 6.6 PATENT LICENSE ........................................................................................................ 157 6.7 ENHANCED USE LEASE ................................................................................................. 159 6.8 CRADAS ................................................................................................................. 161 6.9 SBIR/STTR .............................................................................................................. 162 Part 1 5 of 228 Supporting Commercial Space Development 6.10 IPP SEED FUND ......................................................................................................... 165 6.11 CENTENNIAL CHALLENGES ...........................................................................................