Tasmanian Government Five-Yearly Infrastructure Report January 2007 Table of Contents 1. Introduction .........................................................................................5 1.1. Tasmania’s Demographic Trends ..................................................................5 1.1.1. Population Trends 5 1.1.2. Projected Demographic Changes 6 1.1.3. Population Distribution 7 1.1.4. Summary of Key Issues 8 1.2. Economic Analysis ........................................................................................8 1.2.1. Economic Overview 8 1.2.2. Outlook for Economic Growth 10 1.2.3. Recent Investment Trends 11 1.2.4. Industry Structure 13 1.2.5. Exports and Imports 14 1.3. Key Demand Drivers for Tasmania .............................................................16 1.4. State Governance.........................................................................................16 1.4.1. Regulatory Framework 16 1.4.2. Local Councils and Regions 18 1.4.3. Planning Reforms 19 2. Transport............................................................................................20 2.1. Sector Overview...........................................................................................20 2.2. Road .............................................................................................................23 2.2.1. Supply 23 2.2.2. Demand 24 2.2.3. Performance 27 2.2.4. Investment 28 2.2.5. Policy, Planning and Regulation 29 2.2.6. Conclusions, Key Issues and Challenges 33 2.3. Rail...............................................................................................................34 2.3.1. Supply 34 2.3.2. Demand 35 2.3.3. Performance 36 2.3.4. Investment 36 2.3.5. Policy, Planning and Regulation 37 2.3.6. Conclusions, Key Issues and Challenges 38 2.4. Ports and Intermodal Facilities ....................................................................40 2.4.1. Supply 40 2.4.2. Demand 41 2.4.3. Performance 44 2.4.4. Investment 45 2.4.5. Policy, Planning and Regulation 45 2.4.6. Conclusions, Key Issues and Challenges 46 2.5. Airports ........................................................................................................47 2.5.1. Supply 47 2.5.2. Demand 47 2.5.3. Performance 49 2.5.4. Investment 50 2.5.5. Policy, Planning and Regulation 51 2.5.6. Conclusions, Key Issues and Challenges 51 3. Energy................................................................................................52 3.1. Electricity.....................................................................................................52 3.1.1. Supply 52 3.1.2. Demand 56 3.1.3. Performance 58 3.1.4. Investment 63 3.1.5. Policy, Planning and Regulation 65 3.1.6. Conclusions, Key Issues and Challenges 70 3.2. Natural Gas..................................................................................................72 3.2.1. Supply 72 3.2.2. Demand 72 3.2.3. Performance 74 3.2.4. Investment 76 3.2.5. Policy, Planning and Regulation 76 3.2.6. Conclusion, Key Issues and Challenges 77 4. Water .................................................................................................79 4.1. Sector Overview...........................................................................................79 4.1.1. Supply 79 4.1.2. Demand 81 4.1.3. Performance 82 4.1.4. Investment 83 4.1.5. Policy, Planning and Regulation 85 4.1.6. Conclusions, Key Issues and Challenges 86 5. Telecommunications..........................................................................88 3 5.1. Sector Overview...........................................................................................88 5.1.1. Supply 88 5.1.2. Demand 90 5.1.3. Performance 90 5.1.4. Investment 91 5.1.5. Policy, Planning and Regulation 92 5.1.6. Conclusions, Key Issues and Challenges 93 4 1. Introduction 1.1. Tasmania’s Demographic Trends 1.1.1. Population Trends As at 30 June 2006, Tasmania’s population comprised 488,948 persons or 2.4 per cent of the total Australian population. In the year to June 2006, Tasmania’s population grew by 3 458 persons or 0.71 per cent. After a four-year period of population decline in the late 1990s, Tasmania’s population returned to growth in early 2001 and recorded its sixth consecutive year of population growth in 2005-06 Population growth in states and territories are influenced by three components: natural increase (number of births), net interstate migration, and net overseas migration. Tasmania has traditionally experienced high rates of interstate out-migration, especially of those in the 20-34 age group, which is the prime child-rearing age group. However, this trend has changed in recent years and a key factor in Tasmania’s recent return to population growth has been an increase in interstate in-migration. Tasmania’s positive population growth can be attributed to all three components as illustrated in Table 1. Table 1: Estimated Resident Population, Components of Change, Tasmania - As at 30 June 20061 Year Natural Net Interstate Net Overseas At end of Change from Increase Migration Migration Period Previous Year 2000-01 2,047 -2,136 101 471,581 32 2001-02 2,022 -1,512 307 472,285 704 2002-03 1,784 1,895 1,014 475,334 3,049 2003-04 1,756 2,475 700 480,760 5,426 2004-05 2,208 187 1,045 484,498 3,738 2005-06 2,520 60 692 487,956 3,458 Despite having the highest fertility rate in Australia (Tasmania reached replacement rate of 2.1 babies per woman in 2005, whereas the national average is 1.8 births per woman), Tasmania is also ageing at a faster rate than any other Australian jurisdiction. This is the main emerging demographic issue for the State and will present significant issues in terms of demographic shift, service provision and employment. The changing size and distribution of Tasmania’s population will also have implications on infrastructure development and maintenance into the future. 1 Australian Bureau of Statistics, Cat No 3101.0 5 1.1.2. Projected Demographic Changes Changes in Tasmania’s population size and composition will impact on the State’s economic growth, the demand for some Government services and infrastructure and the Government’s revenue raising capacity. Demographic change is a more urgent issue for Tasmania than for other states and territories as Tasmania is ageing more rapidly than any other jurisdiction and is expected to have the oldest population age structure within two years. A key feature of ABS population projections is that Tasmania will have the slowest growing and fastest ageing population of all Australian jurisdictions. In particular, the ageing of Tasmania’s population occurs under all projections and therefore can be considered a certain outcome over the next few decades, regardless of whether total population is increasing or declining. Tasmania’s age structure is therefore projected to progressively move toward one in which the proportion of the population in older age groups is higher than those in younger age groups. Under most of the ABS population projection scenarios, Tasmania’s population is also projected to grow for at least 20 years. Under one set of ABS population projections2, Tasmania’s population grows for the next 20 years, before gradually declining to be at a level in 2046 that is similar to Tasmania’s population in 1991 (around 467,000). 2 This ABS projection has assumptions that reflect recent past trends. It assumes an average fertility of 1.7 (that is, females on average give birth to 1.7 live children over their lifetime), declining improvement in life expectancy from 2010-11, and a net gain of 550 persons from overseas migration and a net loss of 1,000 persons through interstate migration each year. 6 1.1.3. Population Distribution Tasmania’s population is largely distributed in three main regions: the south around the capital Hobart (population 239,438), the north-east centred on Launceston (137,900), and the north-west in Devonport and Burnie (107,900). Tasmania has the most dispersed population of any Australian State or Territory, with just less that 60 percent of the population living outside the capital city. In the period between 1991 and 2001, Tasmania experienced population decline in rural and regional areas (see Map 1). The population growth that has subsequently occurred around Tasmania’s major urban areas (Hobart and Launceston) has tended to be concentrated in the outer suburbs and fringe areas. Between 1991 and 2001, the Net decrease No change population of Hobart’s outer Net increase suburbs and fringe areas increased by 9.1 per cent, while Map 1: Population change 1991 to 2001 the population of the inner urban area declined by 1.5 per cent. In Launceston, the population of the outer suburbs and fringe areas increased by 6.9 per cent, while the population of the inner urban area increased by only 1.1 per cent. This ‘urban sprawl’ has been facilitated by the dominance of the private car ownership, as well as the provision of road infrastructure. The trend towards low density suburban residential developments, which are largely separate from commercial centres, has implications for the provision of infrastructure. As sprawl occurs, the cost of providing infrastructure and other services to these areas increases, as does the expectation that these services will be provided. In addition, average travel distances and dependence on private vehicles increase. The age structure of the population varies between Tasmanian regions and Local Government Areas and has been changing over time. This has, and will continue to have, implications