University of Reading Department of Agricultural Economics & Management

GIANNIN1 FOUNCIATION OF AGRICULT4,1- ECONOMICS LWI• AIRY AUG 12

MILTON KEYNES 1975 FARMING IN AND OUT OF THE DESIGNATED AREA

Miscellaneous Study No. 61 1975

Price 75p University of Reading Department of Agricultural Economics and Management

MILTON KEYNES 1975

MUTING IN AND OUT OP THE DESIGNATED AREA

Yilsoellaneous Study No. 61 1975 0 7049 0194 3 CONTENTS

Patcw

Preface

Acknowledgements

Part I Farming in. the Designated Area

Part 11 Farming out of the Designated Area PREFACE

In 1967 this Department carried out a comprehensive survey of the agricultural population and their farms in the area that had been designated for the new city of Milton Keynes. A report of that survey - Milton Keynes 1967: An Agricultural Inventory - was published in 1968.

That report was the first of a series which it was hoped would examine the effects of large scale urban development on agricultural communities. It was followed by a second survey and report (Milton Keynes Revisited) in 1971 and by a third one (Case Studies in a Dwindling Agriculture) in 1973.

This fourth report briefly takes stock of the farming situation in the designated area in the Spring of 1975 but also explores, for the first time, the possible impact that urban development has had or will have on agriculture in the areas surrounding the development. Clearly, the issues arising from this particular interface will constitute the more lasting problems with which agriculture in the locality has to contend and it is to these questions that the attention of this Department will increasingly be tamed. ACKNOWLEDGMMTS

The Department wishes to record. its thanks to the farmers, farmers' sons and farm workers who have patiently continued to answer our questions and. who in so doing have made this series of reports possible. We are also grateful to members of the Milton Keynes Development Corporation, who have helped us especially in tracing individuals whom we may otherwise not have been able to.

Numerous members of the Department on both the lecturing and investigational staff continue to be involved in this project. So far as this particular report is concerned their responsibilities have been as follaws:-

Rseh Team:

D.J.Ansell, H.Casey, J.A.L.Dench, A.LGiles (co-ordinator),

S.,.Harrison C Ritsons, J.I.Wittenberg.

-Field Workers:

D.J.Ansell, R.S.Cook, J.A.L.Dench, A.K.Giles, R.L.Vaughasn, J. Wright, J.I.Wittenberg, Miss S.M.Pletcher.

Analysis of Data:

F.G.aigland

Principal authors of Sections:

I D.J.Ansell and A.K.Giles II H.Casey and R.B.Arkell

inZya_a_lndmps213.ac:gon:i

Firs. M. Gibbs

Professor R. H. Tuck I. FARMING IN THE DESIGNATED AREA

The availability and use of farm land

A total of only 42 farmers now operate in the Milton Keynes designated area. This compares with 49 in 19739 65 in 1971 and 90 in 19671* the year of the original survey. The exodus of only farms in the period 1973. to 1975 indicates that this most recent period in the development of the new city has not made large scale migration of farmers necessary. There has, however, been a reduction in the amount of available agricultural land within the designated area which has fallen by 1,583 acres from 9,535 at the time of our 1973 'enquiry. to 7,952 acres in the spring of 1975.'(34 This reduction does not mean, however, that all farms have become smaller, as the table below indicates. •

Chan s in the size of farms at Milton Ke es 1 71275 Agricultural land Agricultural land Number of Parms in Designated Area in and out of Designated Area

Having increases of more than 20 acres

Having increases of less than 20 acres 0 0 With no change in acreage 18 15

Having decreases of more than 20 acres 12 11

Having decreases of less than 20 acres 3. 3

383(4-41 38***

s#1111111110.4111111

Throughout, there has been a small number of farms that, for various reasons, have not been included in the surveys carried out in this Department.

** This acreage relates only to farmed land on the farms included in this survey. It falls short of the total land in all agricultural type uses within the designated areas to the extent that, from the outset a number of farmers did not take part in the survey and to the extent also that some forms of land use (e.g.woodland) are not included.

*** Data not available for four farms. - 2 -

One Interesting fact to emerge from this table is that the changes in farm sizes which have occurred have tended not to be marginal. Thus of the farms that experienced increases in size, all did so by more than 20 acres and of those that were reduced in size, only three were reduced by less than 20 acres.

It might be expected that relatively large overall changes in the availability of land to individuals would lead to changes in farming systems but as the following table shows the pattern of land use has in fact remained very stable since 1971.

Agricultural Land Use in Designated Area Buildings Other Arable Temporary Permanent , and Crops Grass Grass Fallow Year Cereals Roads

Acres Acres % Acres % Acres % Acres cA Acres % 1!)

13.6 5123 35.0 59 0.4 116 0.8 1967 7077 43.3 278 1.9 1993 3118 32.9 38 0.4 70 0.8 1971 5500 58.0 95 1.0 654 6.9 29.6 219 2.3 85 0.9 1973 5721 60.0 57 0.6 629 6.6 2822 2260 28.5 275 82 1.0 1975 4509 56,8 204 2.7 592 7.4 3.5

the As earlier reports in this series have recorded, ago with a major change in land use took place several years but since swing into cereals and out of grass based enterprises, change 1971 nothing has happened to cause farmers to aignificantly been a continual their pattern of land use. There has, however, stocking patterns, a major and in some cases substantial change in numbers. The main feature of this being a further fail in cattle the following changes in this respect since 1973 are set out in table. 212.jars in. Livestock Numbers in Designated Area 1973-75

I91,3 1975, Change Cha.n.ge Yo

Dairy cows 192 159 -33 -17.0 Dairy young stock + 2 years 109 102 -7 -6.5 Dairy young stook - 2 years 80 58 -22 -27.5 Beef cows. 170 133 -37 -21.7 Fat cattle 959 788 -171 -17.8 Beef + 1 year 592 506 -86 -14.5 Beef - 1 year 303 239 -64 -21.1 Ewes 1,883 2,698 +815 +43.2 Lambs 1,522 2,258 +736 +48.3 Hens 33,749 26,170 -7,579 -22.4 Broilers 24,000 329000 +8,000 +33.3 Sows 16 10 -6 -37.5 Other pigs 84 52 -32 -38.0

In the latest two year period the total number of grazing livestock animals has fallen from 2,386 to 2,298 or by just under 4%. Total livestock units have fallen by 6.5.`„, It is clear from the figures that this change has taken the form of a reduction in cow and beef cattle numbers and an increase in the population of sheep. This is understandable in a situation of uncertainty as lamb production has a shorter production cycle and involves less capital outlay per unit as well as less labour. Typical gross margins that were recently assessed by this Department*suggest an average figure for dairying of about £80 per acre, for beef varying between £60 and £25 per acre and for lamb production of some £30 per acre. It can be assumed, thereicire, that changes out of beef and into sheep' production probably do not affect 'farm incomes particularly in a downward direction but it is likely that changes from dairying to sheep will do so, especially if, in the short term, farmers are unable to compensate by a reduction In fixed costs. Quite apart from recent national trends it seems likely that milk production will continue to fall sharply in the Designated Area during the next few years as the number of young dairy stock has also shown a marked decline.

* January 1975. . The pattern of land tenure has continued to change in that almost all of the land (88%) lying within the area is now owned by short the Development Corporation and is licensed back to farmers on usually term agreements, Where land is still privately owned, it is in the south-west of the area lying to the west of the A5 road.

in the Of the 42 farmers still wholly or partly operating 32 were Designated Area at the time of this survey (May, 1975), 1967 and. amongst those originally interviewed as proprietors in their 5 were farmers' sons who have subsequently taken over from partnerships. fathers or who have assumed the more active role in The remainder have moved into the area since it was designated.

and the Personal attitudes have changed little between this - other previous survey carried out by this Department in 1973 many, than that the physical realities of development have, for proved to be even more irksome than the prospect of them was. Such feelings are Intensified by the sight of housing development which to many of those interviewed does not match the expectations they had for the new city.

Most of these farmers know fairly accurately how =oh longer they can remain farming in the area and the kind of compensation they will be entitled to when they have to go -- if it has not serious already been received. Few of them, therefore, have made towards attempts to leave the area since 1973. The continued move has the more extensive and. non-labour intensive methods of farming reluctance by already been commented on, which is in harmony with a but the anybody to invest in new buildings or to carry out anything with the most necessary repairs. At the same time, in accordance actually lost policy of the Development Corporation, few farmers have buildings and those farm buildings for which the Development Corporation is responsible are being properly maintained.

The major farming frustrations in the area are the • ragmentation of holdings resulting from one kind of development or another, making any semblance of ordered rotational farming an difficult if not impossible. Although a few farmers commented the value of incoming social assets, such as the Community Centre, there is also general and understandable sadness, if not frustration, at the gradual break up of a rural community - as friends, neighbours and relatives move away. Opinion remains fairly evenly divided as to how well the 'authorities' have kept the community informed of pending development - or, at least, how successful attempts in this respect have actually been - and while the majority now have their plans for the future well laid, there are a significant minority (about one quarter) who continue to be anxious about the possibility of inadequate compensation and of being unable to find acceptable alternatives to their present location and existence. Where anxiety about compensation exists, there is clearly a need for the farmers concerned to maintain close liaison with their agents whose job it is to advise on these matters.

No new farmers have moved into the area since our previous survey and any remaining farmers' sons are now fully fledged partners. By contrast, six farm workers are newly employed in the area, mostly as tractor drivers and mostly having previously lived locally. Two of them were school leavers. When development forces these men to look for alternatives, they will look preferably for some kind of outdoor work. Only 9 of the ,farm workers originally interviewed in 1967 are still in farm jobs within the designated area. Most of them live in tied cottages and intend to stay put as long as they can. Statements about expected future plans have, so far in this study, proved an unreliable guide to what individuals eventually do. At the moment, however, those who are left hope to remain in farming. Of those who have left before them very few actually did. There are now less than 20 regular hired farm workers employed in the area, including those who have come into the area since development began.

The leavers

It remains to comment, briefly, on those who have recently departed; ten farm workers and seven farmers. Of the farm workers, six have found non-farming jobs (e.g.. building, driving, postman, groundsman), one has retired and three could not be traced. As on previous occasionst only in respect to loss of job satisfaction, was there any suggestion by those interviewed that their changed circumstances were in any way detrimental.• With one exception the seven farmers had each moved when the moment seemed opportune. Four have continued farming; two have retired and one has taken up a retail milk ro-und. Again, evidence presented has been that, in the main, changes have not been detrimental. Given adequate time, an advantageous move seems to be the general rule and an ultimate feeling of relief at being 'out of it all' seems universally to be felt.

Of those who moved to other farms, one moved to a slightly larger acreage and three to smaller ones; in one case, significantly smaller. That farmer expected his income potential to fall by some 20%. The other• three all expected their farming potential to rise, without any increased managerial effort. As usual when such moves are made there will be a transitional period before any new potential can be fully reached. Three of -these four farmers were satisfied (within the existing law) with the compensation they received. One was certainly not. As with the farm workers, however, the overall balance for these farmers, after the move had been made, was favourable.

The destination of all those farmers and farm workers who have so far left the designated area since development began in earnest is now as follows:-

Farmers Farm Workers Farmers' Sons and Dauphters In original survey (1967) 90 79 30

Destination: To other farms 13 To other occupations 13 11 To retirement 24* Have died IWO Other IOW 2**

Total 58 70 22

Remaining (1975) . 32

* Now includes some who went into 'part retirement' and can no - longer be regarded as the bona fide proprietors of a farm business.

** Two farmers' daughters have married. 7

‘SINIMARY

To summarise this account of farming in the Designated. Area, it can be said that there have been no very* marked changes in farming activity at Milton Keynes over the past two years other than a steady erosion of the available agricultural area and some substitution in the choice of livestock enterprises. Individual farmers have encountered problems, some of them indeed have had to terminate their operations. When eventually they have left,the overall balance of their new circumstances has compared favourably with those they have left behind, and farm workers continue to experience little difficulty in finding new employment. For most of those farmers who have remained, there is no clear evidence that farming in this transitional period. has presented insuperable difficulties provided there has been a willingness to adjust - almost always towards more extensive farming methods. It is doubtful, however, whether the pace of development will allow this state of affairs to continue for very mach longer except in certain peripheral parts of the designated area which will escape the general advance of development for some years to come.

-

II. FARMING OUT OF THE DESIGNATED AREA - 10.-

SOME CHANGES IN THE PATTERN OF FARMING IN THE AREAS SURROUNDING MILTON KEYNES

a predominantly The planting of a large new town in the heart of sociological and rural area can be expected to bring about profound This chapter economic changes in the neighbouring communities. the way in which attempts to show how it may be possible to study practised in the these changes affect the character of the farming by studying the region that borders on the newly developing town by the Ministry of Agricultural Census Returns which are published area of study comprises Agriculture at parish level, annually. The the area designated for 274 parishes which roughly form a square with from to Milton Keynes at its centre. It extends north Luton, to Daventry and and westwards from and area has a stronger potential . The north-eastern half of this which is expected to retain for urban growth than the south-western half We are thus provided with its wholly rural character for some decades. taking place in the two distinctive backgrounds against which any changes the new town, can be parishes surrounding the area designated for appraised.

available at parish The most recent Agricultural Census statistics published in level when this study began were those for 4th June, 1973, giving the position January, 1975. These are compared with the figures certain proposals for a at 4th June, 1965. At that date there existed known and appreciated and new town development* but they were not widely on farmers' decisions they are unlikely to have had any immediate effect the most recent bench-mark we at the time. However, 1965 is probably of agriculture was can take with any confidence that the pattern unaffected by the projected new town.

been monitored in a series The statistics for these two years have summarise a welter of detailed raw of stylised maps which endeavour to in the present context. statistics in a form that is more meaningful is explained on page 12: The conventions used in drawing these maps that the technique of here we are concerned with the contribution of agricultural production mapping makes to our analysis. The pattern to the pressures of the is in a constant state of flux being subject Our maps examine the general economic climate and of social change.

* See the first publication in this series. surface appearance of a very complex set of responses by individual farmers, all of whom have different temperaments and skills; different stocks of fixed resources and cash reserves; and different time horizons for achieving their goals. We shall not, therefore, expect to witness any great uniformity in any changes taking place within so small an area as a parish containing only a hand±ul of decision-makers; at least, not in the short term. At the most, we shall discern that certain phenomena appear more frequently in one quarter of the map than in another. It is in this respect that the region to the west of the designated area should be studied carefully. It is hoped that it will provide better standards of comparison for measuring change in the more immediate vicinity of Milton Keynes than national trends. Although it will be unwise to ignore national trends,• the wholly rural parishes to the west are more closely related to the parishes of chief interest to the study, than the more abstract amalgam 'the national farm'. Because it is difficult to envisage without the aid of mapping, how the parishes cluster together in some rough semblance of a common response to social and economic pressures, our 'maps' serve to focus on the bold outlines of the background against which evidence about the parishes around Milton Keynes must be weighed. At the same time, they provide the detailed picture of events that would be cumbersome, and tedious to read, if portrayed by words and numbers4 without the aid of mapping. 12 -

THE CONVENTIONS USED IN DRAWING' THE MAPS

In the example map on the opposite page, a parish is represented, by an asterisk. Its identity can be established by consulting the row numbers I to 16, on the left-hand side, and the column numbers, 1 to 18, across the top. These numbers and the 3. names of the parishes to which they refer are listed in Appendix The row and column format of the map was adopted to provide an easy method of identifying the parishes in a structure that could be mimicked conveniently in the computer program used to analyse the census data. There is a small loss of accuracy in the representation of the spatial relationships between parishes, as in the features of the stylised maps of the Underground system, but these distortions are not significant in the context of a study of this nature.

In some of the later maps, a variety of symbols are used to pinpoint parishes in order to bring out their distinctive characteristics. The reader will, occasionally, find it rewarding to obtain a more distinctive relief map by superimposing a coloured pencil mark on the symbols in order to heighten the contrast. The absence of a symbol at a parish location is explained by the title and key associated with each map. • - 13 -

Emamatjaan showing the 274 parishea studied and their relationship to the area desiEnatld for the new town of Milton alnes.t An interpretation of this man is given on the preceding page.

THE STUDY AREA

1 1 1 1 1 I I a 3 45 6 7 8 9 0 a 3 4 5 6 7t3

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• The letters ti in the 'map' indicate areas of land in urban use and these serve also to locate the geographical setting of the study area. The U in the centre (row 10, column 10) is the town of Bletdhley and the lines enclosing it and the parishes to the north, are the boundaries of the area, designated for the new town. In the 'maps' that follow, the presence or absence of an asterisk (or an alternative symbol) is used to display some level or intensity of farming activity with a view to focusing attention on the special features of the area. CHANGES IN 'kit! OVERALL INTENSITY OP PAWING OPERATION

large scale urban There are 'a priori' grounds for believing that in the adjacent area; development has an adverse effect upon the farming pets, damage that the physical intrusion by towns-people and. their more difficult or less livestock and crops and make farming operations employment created profitable; that the opportunities for alternative and other services by the growth of industry raises the cost of labour will be held by and depletes the farm labour force; and. that land the prospect of persons not primarily interested in farming but in rounds of urban cashing-in on the site value of the property in fresh capital and the expertise development, who may well starve the land of the needed to farm it efficiently. that urban Alternative views are expressed by those who believe labour and capital development may have the opposite effect, attracting and increasing the into the area and the business of farming, by renewing amenities that provide the incentives for a rural comrmanity. is whether the issue of prime concern to the national welfare ' An a result of of the surrounding agricultural land declines as productivity is not the urban development. A quantifiable concept of 'produntivity' operated in a easily arrived at, however. If the farming industry or a decline static economic environment, we could measure an increase of milk and tons by comparing for each year the tonnage of grain, gallons pattern of farm of beef etc. marketed. But as discussed earlier, the in the market is in a constant state of flux, responding to change output of yearly prices for farm products and farm inputs so that a comparison of the money output, product by product, is ruled out and a totting-up value of the total mix of output is not meaningful. farming If we seek some overall measure of the intensity of the managerial skill operation in terms of the stock of resources,- labour, the same and capital, employed per acre of land, we shall encounter that attaches to comparisons or to the totting-up of difficulties of the types of output. But a proxy measure of the intensity different saleable operation can be obtained by counting up the acres of farming an acreage crops and crediting to each head of grazing livestock tillage 'norm' for of forage at a uniform rate that is deemed an appropriate but it has the advantage its type. Of necessity this is a crude measure in technology both in that it is not upset by improvements taking place respect to crop production and livestock husbandry. measure which has Some more detailed aspects of computing this proxy in Appendix 1. been used in the map on the next page, are given - 15

Chanixer, in the the ryairp, t on (continued)

The measurement of th intensity of the farming operation has been outlined and dit.cussed on the preceding page. The changes that have.been measured as between 1965 and 1973 are presented in the map below. parish showing an improvement of between 5 and 15 per cent is identified with the numeral 1. • If the improvement is greater than 15 per cent, it is identified with the numeral 2. A reduced performance of 5 to 15 per cent is identified with an asterisk of type the * and a reduction greater than 15 per cent by an asterisk type of the

PARISHES laspLarsa IMPROVED AND REDUCED PERFORMANCE AS BETWEEN 1965 & 1973

i Eft.WNW • 0011•00111.11.4111...11;10

I 2 3 4 5 6 7 a 9 01 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

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some notes and comments an this map are to be found in Appendix It does not, however, 1. suggest that the early stages of the development of the new town have brought about any changes in the overall intensity of the farming operation in the surrauading area. In general, changes that are the pin-pointed can be observed elsewhere throughout stay area. the 16

•:'.

The maps that follow aim to distinguish changes in the pattern of cropping and stocking (as distinct from the overall intensity of the farming operation) that have been taking place. - 17 -

CHANGES Di TT[ F.ABNING PATTFM

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The proportion of cereals in the farming patterns of the Study area increases in waves moving diagonally from the south-west corner towards the north-east corner. The pattern is the same in 1965 and 1973 not withstanding an upward swing in cereal production bettieen the two years. 1 1 I 1 1 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 rt I 3 4 5 6 7 8

-Parishes in 1965 devoting Davontry Northampton more than * * * * * * * * 40 Per cent' * * * * * * of farm land * IP * * * * * * * * * to cereals * * * * * * * U * Bedford * * IT .* * * * * * *. sv, 1;-7170,1* * * * * * * -* * * * * * . ..* * —1 * It * 10 U I * * * 1 * 112 * !4 • * 3Bi6ester **UULI * * u Luton 5 • *• * * U 16 * * CEREALS165 • Aylesbury

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Zaventry Northazoton * * * * •* * * 3 * Parishes in .173 I U *;Be4ford devoting more than * * 50 per cen. of * .6 * farm lend to * * cereals (note that a this iierce4tage * * is higher than 10 * * * ttiq* critical 11 percentageH. 12 • * * * portrayed above 13 Bicester *UUU for 1965) 14 . U 13 Luton 1 15 * * * * 16 triREALs173 kylesbury - 18 -

••

Other Cash Crops • The predominance of arable cash crops in the east and north-east of the study area is even more apparent if cash crops (other than cereals) axe pinpointed. These are mostly market garden crops in the vegetable growing areas of , together with substantial crops of potatoes.

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oba•asairiiMowlitabegifte 1 11 1 1 I In 1965, Milton 7' 8 •1 3 4 5 6 7 a 9 1 2 1 5•6 Keynes was associated with a band in which the pro-portion of btiveiitni 11orthaMptOn cereals is i * * * * • 35% - 40% -2 * * * * * * * 3 * .4? * 5 * 6 * * * * * --, . 7 I * I a * .* *f— - 4.- 9 * * * 1 0 • • * -1 I.1 r----- . * 11 * * * 6 1 2 . * 1- 3Bicester * * • it. u ti ti ' *4_ 4 II li • 'Alton,

16 11 • . CEREALSaiSf; 6 Aylesbury

I 1 1 1 1 2 3 A 5- 6 7 0 I 2 3 5 6 7 8 But in 1973 the • dominant band is 30Y0-35% despite Ds.7elatly Northampton . the general * * • increase in cereal production. • 3 1.1 Bedford

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1 .1 1 1 1 1 1 ii I 2 3 4 5 6 7 S 9 0 1 2 3 so. 5 67 8 A p7.1.ot of tbs. parishes where a reduction of mar; ta,ventry Northampton then per ct nt 1 * in cereal ., t. " production 3 .* * * * * occurred , as .0 * * tted.ford between 1965 and 5 * * 1973 6 :* * t * * * ,-i * *17,-n* * * * 1 S F ,...... * * y * ....„,...... * a * .4 I 1 1* _1 * * 10 * * * 1 1 * ti..,....t* * * 12 * * * * * * * - 3 Meet:ter * * * * U U U 1)44 * * 4? U U 1:= st, * * . #i u Luton 'I t, * * r * .Aylktiury CE,REALUI 3

The designated area, ot n t se4tn to be ringed by a band of decreases which. is separated frmi he tee 'east a occurring elsewhere by an absence of asterisks - an .bse lee th3,-t is indicative of increasing cereal production. The scale of the incres.les can bt judged by reference to the relief map below.

1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Parishes 1 t 3 4 5 6 7 8 .9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 recording an increase in cereal Northampton production of Maventry . .41 p. .II 10 per cent 1 * * + +* 2 ...... +. 4. .$ * v. + and. more as as MI 4* between 3 + * ++ la .1. 4. 1965 4 • 47 + n .. + .4. and I.! Bedford 1973 5 4 4. Fe .I. ,.. * ii" + ...= -,...... ---...... ",_,...„,___J 6 7 4, so it', 4. i--- 1 KEY a . 4, .. 4* L...... _ + 4. , 4. * 4. 9 .. 4. si a. 1 4. 71 4. +.,+ % increase 10 4' '. + + + 4. ... 11.+.* 4, e. 44 4. if * 0. + • * 4. 1O20 - 12 , 4.: : +..+ 4' + 20-25 * • 3 Bi,:est.e7f, * mi " ** U ii U •, 4 * 4. 4. 4. 4. + 4 more 61* ti U Luton 4- 15 + * 4, 4. + 4. + - "1 ti than 25 14!, 4 4. t i .4. 4. 4. • CEREALChAVG1IFir-:1 Aylesbury - 22 - - 23 -

Some of Ihe radYmtinns adjacent to the desliErted area are substantial as can be seen in the next map.

1 1' 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 67 8 4 o 1 2345678

Parishes where the Daventry Northampton reduction in cereal production was more than UBedfor4 20 per cent as between 1965 and 1973 1 11 * 12 13 Bicester * U (1 U 4 U • 15 * * u Luton 16 CEREALSti 20 Aylesbury

The five parishes on the'boundary of the new town that are registered here are:

Nap Reference Cereal acreage Percentage per 100 acres VV decrease V V Row Column farm land is12111.±2.11ELLY: V V

1965 V 1973

• 6 9 Haverdham cum Little Linforcl 49 ,3 33.8 V V V V 31 V 6 li 38.8 24.0 38- 7 8 Cosgrove 29.0 18.8 35 V 7 12 Broughtaa . • • 79.9 53.5 V 33 11 10 39.3 27.2 31 — 24 -

Dairying

The two maps on the opposite page identify all those parishes keeping more than 7.5 dairy cows per 100 acres. At this density, there appears to be little change between the two years, Of the parishes immediately ringing the designated area, only two, and , have dropped out of the picture. On the other hand, some of the ring is populated at this level in 1973, but not in 1965.

The general increase in the importance of dairying in the study area is brought out by a comparison of the two maps. Although the number of parishes pin-pointed in 1973 is only slightly more than in 1965, the symbols used to denote the heavier stocking rates are much more frequent in 1973. Note that the heaviest concentration of dairying is in the south-west of the study area, in contrast with the location of the high densities of cereals and other cash crops in the north-east. It is apparent from both maps that there are many parishes adjacent to the designated area where milk production is not, and. has not been, an important enterprise. - 25

1 1 1 1 1 .1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 sAil•switaloodeesiamminriosmiormikas •„ Parishes in 1965 with a dairy cow Daventry Northampton • population of 1 . + . * more than . 41 * • 7.5 per 100 3 -+ acres. 4 1. * + * .0 Li Bedford. 5 .. .. 6 .* * 4. .., * KEY 7 + .. -.**• .* 8 * .• 1...... , Cows 'per 100 9 . . -1.7.., +1+ ... . acre 10 4. 0...... 0,11—*- 4* 4.

11 • * * • * iii•ON * "W 7.5 - 10 12 * * * * * - if * * 13 ow 10 - 15 Bioester * * ell • * '" ..o U U U 14 * * .•• 4. * * * ' U U tuton. more than 15 .* * -•... * . PI * • u . 15 " t'' 16 + * Aylediub. * •COWSREL1EF65 1

Parishes in 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1973 with a 1 2 3 4 5 6? 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 dairy cow population of more than • Daventry 7.5 per 100 Northampton acres 1. * 4, * KEY * U -Bedford Cows per 100 acres 4.

7. * * * ++ , 7.5 - 10 a * " eti ; 10 - 15 • * * * 1.0 * * 4, more than i 15 .12 ++ 411B I 3Bicester* * * u u u 14 * * u Luton 15 * * * 16 * 11 * COWSREL1EF73 Aylesbury - 26 Chanves in the Dairy. Cow Population

Not withstanding the increase in the total dairy cow population, there were many substantial reductions in individual parishes. Attention is drawn to the reductions within the designated area and the parishes immediately adjacent to it that are recorded by the map below. However, it should be noted that reductions of equal severity occurred throughout the study area north of Milton Keynes.

A feature of this map is that where reductions occurred, they were usually of a high order.

1 47E 1 1 2 34 5 6 7 8 9 1 3 4 56 7 8

Parishes 'where XtNeentry Northampton 4 i # • P P # if : the dairy cow P * it: '# 2 populatipn 3 it P # li # ti # : 0 fell as between 4 ill # ;V # : # II # 1-1 # Beaf,'ol 5 # it tf # # # # : # # 1965 and 1973 4 6 Ie...... _,# # * 7 it # '# A 8 # * # # KEY it * -9 # # # in____ # # tf 94 reduction 10 * it # # # 11 . 19 i* : it it # it • . il more than 20PA iil' 12 1 it ;it # 10% - 20% * I 3Bicester # v ft 14 : : it U U U # .• . up to 10°, : 15 . * U U liat9n. 16 . # # * * 0 01 * u # * ttI .. # ii * it # C(NSADCNEG I Aylesbury - 28 -

Total Cattle Population

For these maps the different types of cattle, including dairy cows, have been aggregated by adopting a common unit of measurement, namely, a livestock unit. The conversion factors used for each type of animal are given in the Appendix. As with dairying, the concen- tration is in the . south-western half of the study area 'but the contrast with the north-eastern half is even more striking.

It is also clear that the cattle population had increased as between 1965 and 1973.

•.• - 29 -

I Parishes In 1'1111 1965 with a 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Qu 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 cattle population of more than 20 I Daventry liorthazapton 'livestock units' per I 100 acres . ., '0. 3. * . .

. 4 * * .

00 U Bedford . illi .. .

WS .14 VC CO .*

M 0. . aft se :-...... : . . 'livestock . a m . mit m wy 1 units' per . . 100 acres • . J ;i l•l "I * 40 I 20 - 30 - 1). -. .. . 30 - 40 * , ..,Bicester .- ti U U 00 more than • 04 . u u Luton 40 • 4- .5 * - - u 44 6. 11* * * CATTLEUNITSHELIEF65 Aylesbury

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Parishes in 1973 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 with a cattle I population of more than 20 Daventry 'livestock unitsi Northampton per 100 acres ' I . 1 . I. 4. . , * .... 2 .11, . .... — KFrI 3 4, 4...... se.r...vror• 4 P., sa vs * ..

.* 0 'Livestock units' 5 .. .. Bedford

.. 0% . per 100 acres ' 6 .* *. - .1. .. 4. tkt 7 * — .4- — POI ...... ,i ,.. + * 20 - 30 . 8 . WS RV .. i * se 6..- 30 - 40 . iEdl. *f 9 Via . * 1+. b.. ea se + 10 ita * * + + .1. 10i os + v. more than 11 as .to . * .2 It * .2 .... 40 12 .4. * *. + * + - 4...... * I 3Bioester ,... + *. * * * 4. * U U Li 14 .. . * . .. * * * -. . opu 15 * 4, * sti 4. * wi *. ti II Luton 16 * 4, * * ii 0. GATT LEUNITSRELIEF73 Aylesbury 30

-

_

...

_ - 31 -

Chanes in the Total Cattle T.i.agiltion Both upward and downward changes in the occurred between total cattle population 1965 and 1973. These are distinguished relief map below. The in the parishes adjacent to the designated not appear to have undergone area do changes that are markedly different from those that can be observed elsewhere in the study area.

.1. I WNW1.11. . The spatial distribution 1 of the changes in the total 111111111 cattle populatio 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 a 9 0 1 2 3 4 .5 6 7 8 as between 1965 1 and 1973 LIKa 1.1111.18.1. ail I p Daventry Northampton : A A A A : + *+*A+ A A A AAA. +A A A A*AA A AA 3 + * A A A A 4, A '4' 4 4' A Reduction A AA+ + :AA A*U+ Bedfor Increase A * * : A A AA+ A up io 41 A+4 A.*• * A+ AA + * ti 1*-3,,p43 13 * A L+. A A 4. * A more than * 4*A A Ai+ 4. + 1 0 A 4, **+ 30% + 471 A I * • :4, 4 * + 2 * .+4.+ A A + * + I nixes-ter : * • AAA+ + 14 • I) Luton 15 * 4 A A* : A + 6 • 4. AUA* A 4, CATTLEUNI Aylesbury Thill-time Male Employees

This section provides only a partial analysis of the changes in the labour force as between 1965 and 1973 because there is no record of the changes in the labour force contributed by the self-employed tenants and owner-occupiers. For this reason, it did not seem rewarding to attempt to refine the analysis by including part-time employees and female labour.

The decline in the national farm labour force between the two years is -very evident in the two maps of the study area that are reproduced on the next page. The two maps pin-point the sam6 locations; approximately, and there is a similarity in the distribution of the symbols denoting differences in the.. level of empl4ment for the year in question; but it should be noted that as between years, the same symbols .denote different levels of employment. The key ,for the 1973 'map shows that the lowest level of employment on which. attention is focused (by printing a dash) is 0.5 men.per100 acres;- whereas in the 1965 map, the lowest level bi.otight into focus is 0.8 men per 100 . acres (also reproduced as a dash), Likewise, the other symbols are not used uniformly as between the two years -33-

1 'I 1 1 I I 'I 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 I 3 4 5 6 7 8

. tons..4 1.40.01.9ftWolegli.1.141P.ZIONAPIKi• Parishes in 1965 where DaVentry Northampton .ftill-time I * i,.. pe at mit * 1 ‘1 male employees 4 ai .k + + 4. * 01 * * * im at int exceeded 0.8 3 - - - - * * * * per 100 acres i 4 ... .4 *. * - . ,4.: Ics: 2: Bedford L...... -...... 1 5 ... .. -. 6 ..- . .. REY 7 .. ..9 . J - * # * * 4. 8 * ... as L ii• .. I — • — f _ 9 .. . at Vt...... O.8 — 1 7:1 I * .1 + .1. + . 10 1.N• * * II * vot ne + * in more than 12 ... ,.. — — * 4. * 1.4 ji. 3Bi.'cester .g. . + 14 -*+Utill I 5 * 16 ... - IJ *. .v. * rilLtiiiliOiDRELIEr-o:: Aylesbury

1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 Parishes 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 3 9 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 in 1 1973 where full-time I I male employees 1 Daventry Northampton Ii exceeded 05. I '1- .w * IV * 44 414 4 + 54 4. 1 per 100 acres 1 .. 2 * f34 ++ 4ar 434 li...... mrsomni.wairmwseimmorbao...m...... 3 3 . PS * la • OS +4.

,... la 124 Riff 4 * + _ 5 * N. .+ .' U 4Bedford 6 * * i, 44 V* 7 14 * * - 1 * Pe 4 + 0.7 - I 8 4; * ET . . * 4, + PO f4 more than: 9 IP * * + .., I"...... lyj + 4 en ; 10 49 04 + * * "I' 11 . +4' 44 OPO, . tia V.4 44 12 * t * i 3Bicestex- fa I* 14 *• * t. * P3 + 4 m U U Luton ,... . 15 * 16 * ii .. . Pi E. tifilREDRELIEF 73 . Aylesbury Within the designated area and in the parishes immediately adjacent to it, the reduction in the number of males employed full-time have, generally, been,of a high order when monitored in percentage terms as in the next two maps. The actual number of men leaving employment in and immediately around the development area will, however, be fewer than in many of the more distant parishes which display sirnilar percentage reductions. By referring back to the preceding maps it will be seen that the numbers of men hired have always been low in the central region of the study area.

, -35-

i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 a Parishes where full-time male Dave:atrY Northampton employees fell 1 byiless thqn_my 2 1- 1 l 2 #1 12 as between 3 1 12 1963 and 4. 11973 1 1 # 11 Bedford 2 2 1 2 1 15 el_ 22 15 KEY 2 1 list 8. # Increased use p. 10 .15 1 I ; I) of employed men -t 1 # 15 21 Reduced use 12 12 1 3 Bicestet#12 up to 20% 14 1 15 # UUU #2 1 U Luton 20% - 3o0/0 2 15 21 # 1 1 ill 2 16 U ViENHIREDRELIEM Aylesbury

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 5 4 5 6 7 8 Parishes where full-time male employees fell . by more than 30113 Da.ventry Northampton as between 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 34 4 1965 and 1973 3 4 4 4 3 4 4 3 4 4 44 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 3 4 3 3 4 4 4 4' 4 4 3 3 4 3 4 U4 33 3 43 34 - 3 3 .4 Bedford 34 3 3 Reduced use 3 4 3 3 4 31 4 4 4 3 of employed 4 4 ri; 4 4 4 3 . 3 men 3 4 3 4 4 T 4 3 4...., 3 4 3 4 4 3 -73-1 3 3 4 4i 3 4 4 3 4 30% - 50% 3 10 4 3 3 :74.IL 3 4 3 4 4 3 4 Wore than 50$ 4 11 3 4 4 3 3 36.443 12 4 ' 3. 43 3 . 43 34 34 13 Bioester 3.334 , 3'3 J U U U 14 46 4 4 3 33 • 4 11 li Luton 15 4 43 . 4 4 3 3 3 16 ij 3 . 33 4 4 U 3 4 4 4 MENHIREDRELIEF2 Aylesbui7 36 ...

CONCLUSION

The footnote to the map plotting r,hanges in the overall - intensity of the farming operation ,4ommented upon the absence of any evidence that the new town levelopment had brought about any changes in its immediate vi:,inity. Although changes have occurred in the area adjacent to che designated area, .both in overall intensity and in the pattern of cropping and. stocking, it has not been possible to attribute their cause to the new town. The changes that have been pin-pointed can be observed elsewhere throughout the study area and are more likely to be associated with the response of farmers to changes in the price climate, to technical innovation and changing aspirations, which have borne on the agricultural industry as a whole in consequence of pressures of a more general character than the building of a new town. This is not to say that a study along similar lines at a later date will not reveal a more definite pattern of change that can clearly be ascribed to the presence of an enlarged urban community and a higher density of industrial activity. Moreover, a test of managerial intention arises when some of the longer term equipment of the land, e.g. buildings, drainage systems and the like, have to be renewed ,and fresh long_ term capital has to be committed. A review of the situation at a future date when more time has elapsed will, perhaps, be more revealing of the trend,in the level of capital investment in the fixed equipment of the land which is so essential to high levels of productivity.

Although the maps do not, as yet, discern any trends of the kind that this study and its proposed continuation are designed primarily to investigate, they never-the-less provide an interesting picture of the diversity of the changes that have taken place in the farming industry. between 1965 and 1973. The county and national aggregate figures that are derived and published from the Agricultural Census conceal much local variation which can, by patient search be detected in the parish returns; but there is a barrier to this search in the sheer volume of the parish statistics. A system of mapping such as that used in this report provides insight into these data that can be obtained in no other way. APPENDIX 'I

The method. used in monitoring the changes in the overall intensity of the farming operation in compiling the map on page 15.

41.10.11••111.11MIMII

The overall performance of an individual parish is measured by calculating its 'effective' acreage. In making this calculation, the actual forage acreage is replaced by a 'notional' forage acreage based on the average requirement per head of the grazing livestock population. The 'effective' acreage of a parish in a given year is then obtained by adding together (i) the 'notional' forage acreage calculated as above (ii) the cereal acreage (iii) any other cash crops and bare fallow

The notional forage acreage was calculated in three stages. First, the different types of grazing livestock were converted to 'livestock units' according to the weights listed in Appendix 2. Next the total livestock units for all the 274 parished in the study area were summed for 1965 and. divided into the total acreage of forage actually grown in 1965 to obtain an average forage requirement in acres per 'livestock unit' for that year. This showed a requirement of 2.55 acres per 'livestock unit'. A similar calculation for 1973 showed a requirement of, 2.07 acres. The difference between the two .years is a measure of the improvement in grassland and livestock husbandry in the Industry in general and is in accord with the improvements recorded by the National Farm Management Survey. Finally, the figures 2.55 and 2.07 were used to calculate for each parish the contribution of grazing livestock to item (i) in the, effective' acreage calculation.

The problem of boundary changes as between the two years has been overcome by converting the absolute figures recorded in the census data to percentages showing the moportion of land devoted to items (1), (ii) and (iii) above.

When the 'effective' acres as a percentage of actual acres were plotted it was faUnd that in both years about half of the parishes scored less than 100 per cent. These were mostly located in the areas where arable cash cropping dominates the farming pattern but it is also noticeable that in 1965 the northern part of the designated area and a group of parishes to the south-west of it where cash crops are less important, also scored less than 100 per cent. - 38 -

APPENDIX 2

Weightings (conversion factors) used in converting the different types of grazing livestock into 'livestock units' in monitoring the changes in the overall intensity of land. use in the 'map' - on page 15.

Factor

Dairy cows 1.0 Beef cows 0.7 1n-calf heifers 0.7 Bulls 0.7 Other cattle over 1 year old 0.6 Other cattle under I year old 0.4 Ewes and rams 0.1 Other sheep 0.06 - 39 -

1X3

Parishes in the survey area listed according to their row and column location in the stylised 'maps'.

ROW COLUMN' PARISH

Daventry (town) Weedon Bee 3 Nether Heyford 4 Kislingbury Rotherstharpe 6 Wootton . 7 Northampton (town) Great Houghton 9 Brddfield-in-the-Green 10 Castle Ashby 11 12 Bozeat 13 Odell 14 Sharribrook • 15 Felmerdham 16 Bletsoe 17 and 18 Colmworth 1 Everdon 2 Farthingstone • 3 4 Bugbrooke Milton Nalsor collingtree 7 Quinton Little Houghton Denton 10 Yardley Hastings 11 Warrington 12 Harrold 13 Carlton and Chellington 14 Paven_h.am 15 Milton Ernest 16 Thurleigh - 40 - ROW COLUMN PARISH

2 17 . Ravensden 2 18 Wilden 3 1 Preston Capes 3 2 Litchborough 3 3 Cold Higham 3 4 Pattishall 3 5 Gayton 3 6 Blisworth 3 7 courteenhall 3 8 Hartwell 3 9 Hackleton 3 10 Weston Underwood 3 11 Olney 3 12. 3 13 Purvey. 3 14 Stevington 3 15 Oakley 3 16 Bromham 3 17 Clapham 3 18 Renhold 4 1 Adstone 4 2 Naidford 4 3 Blakesley 4 4 Greens Norton 4 5 Tiffield 4 6 Stoke-Bruerne 4 7 4 8 Ashton 4 9 4 10 Ravenstone 4 11 4 12 4 13 Newton Blossomville 4 14 Stagsden 4 15 Biddenham 4 16 Bedford (town) 4 17 Bedford (town) 4 18 Cople - 41 - ROW COLUMN PiiRISH

5 1 woo dend 5 2 Slapton 5 3 Bradden 5 4 5 5 Easton Neston 5 6 Shu.tlanger 5 7 Grafton Regis 5 8 5 9 5 10 with Filgrave 5 11 5 12 5 13 5 14 Astwood 5 15 Kempston Rural 5 16 Kempston (town) 5 17 Eastcotts 5 18 Cardington 6 1 Helmdon 6 2 Wappenham 6 3 Abthorpe 6 4 Silverstone 6 5 Whittlebury 6 6 Paulerspury 6 7 Yardley Gobion 6 8 6 9 -cum-Little .Linford 6 10 Newport Pagnell (town) 6 11 Lathbury 6 12 6 13 Cranfield 6 14 Marston Moretaine 6 15 Wootton 6 16 Elstow 6 17 Houghton Conquest 6 18 Wilshamstead 2

ROW COMM PARISH

7 1 Radstone 7 2 Whitfield 3 7 Isillingstone Da3rrell 7 7 6 Deanshanger 7 Cosgrove 7 Bradwen 7 10 7 11 Woolstone—cum-Willen 7 12 Broughton 13 14 Lidlington 15 Ampthill (town) 7 16 Stewartby 7 17 Haynes 7 18 Chicksands 8 2 8 3 4 Stowe 8. 5 ilkeley 8 6 Leckhexapstead 7 Wicken 8 Wolverton (town) 8 9 Loughton 8 10 on the Green 8 11 Milton Keynes 8 12 8 13 HuIcote and Salford. 14 Ridgmont 15 Millbrook 8 16 Flitton 8 17 Naulden 18 Clophill - 43 -

ROW COLUMN PARISH 9 1 mixbuz7 9 2 Westbury 9 3 9 4 Radelive-cum- 9 5 9 •6 Foseott 9 7 i3eacharapton 9 8 Whaddon 9 9 Sheraey Brook End 9 10 Bletchley (town) 9 11 Walton . 9 12 9 13 Aapley Guise 9 14 Husborne Crawley 9 15 Steppingley 9 16 Flitwick 5' 17 Silsoe 9 18 Gravenhurst 10 1 Barton Hartshorne 10 2 10 3 10 4 (town) 10 5 Thornborough 10 6 Thornton 10 7 Nash .10 8 Little Harwood 10 9 10 10 Bletchley (town) 10 11 . 10 12 10 13 Woburn 10 14 Drersholt 10 15 Tingrith 10 16 Westoning . 10 17 Harlington 10 18 Pulloxhill , ROW COLUMN PARISH

11 1 Stratton Audley 11 2 Newton Purcell with Shelswell 11 3 11 4 11 5 11 6 11 7 11 8 Winslow 11 9 Mursley 11 sio Drayton Paxslow 11 11 Stoke-Hammond - 12 Heath and Reach 11 13 Potsarove 11 14 Milton Bryon 11 15 Battlesden 11 16 Toddington 11 17 Sundon 11 18 Barton-le-Clay 12 Godington 12 2 12 3 Twyford 12 Steeple Claytion 12 East 12 6 Addington 12 7 12 12 9 Dun-ton 12 10 12 11 12 12 Leighton-Linslade (town) 12 13 Eggington 12 14 Hockliffe 12 15 Chalgrave 12 16 Houghton Regis 12 17 Luton (town) 12 18 Streatley .45 -

ROW COLUMN PARISH

13 Bicester (town) 13 2 Launton 1_3 3 Marsh-Gibbon 13 4 Ch.arncion 13 13 6 13 7 13 13 13 10 13 11 Wing 13 12 Billington 13 13 Stanbridge 13 14 Tilsworth 13 15 Totternhoe 13 16 Dunstable (town) 13 17 Luton (town) 13 18 Luton (town) 14 Ambrosden 14 2 Blackthorn 14 3 14 14 Woodham 14 14 7 14 Oving 14 Whitchurch 14 lo 14 11 14 12 Slapton 14 13 Eaton Bray 14 14 Dunstable 14 15 Idhipsnade 14 16 Caddington 14 17 Luton (town) 14 18 Luton (town) ..46----

ROW COLUMN PARISH

15 Arncott 15 2 Piddington 15 3 Ludgershall 15 Wootton-Underwood 15 Westcott 15 6 15 7 Hardwick 15 8 15 Weedon 15 10 H-alcott 15 11 with 15 12 15 13 15 14 ,15 15 Studham 15 16 Kensworth 15 17 Herts Rural 15 18 Hyde ' 16 1 Horton-cum-Studley 16 2 16 3 Brill 16 4 16 5 16 6 16 16 a Aylesbury (town) 16 Aylesbury (town) 16 10 with Broughton 16 11 16 12 16 13 r

0 7049 0194 3