Eastern Europe to add 10 million digital pay TV subs Eastern Europe will add nearly 10 million digital pay TV subscribers between 2019 and 2025 to take its total to 77 million. However, the region still had 15.4 million analog cable subscribers by end-2019. Eastern Europe pay TV subscribers by platform (mil) 90.00 80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 2019 2020 2025 Analog cable TV 15.39 12.50 1.25 Digital cable TV 19.91 20.88 26.14 Pay IPTV 16.81 18.04 20.76 Pay Sat TV 29.65 29.44 29.01 Pay DTT 0.93 0.95 1.00 Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, explained: “The number of pay TV subscribers in Eastern Europe will decline from 83 million in the peak year of 2018 to 78 million in 2025. Migration married with low birth rates mean that populations will fall in 14 of the 22 countries that we cover between 2019 and 2025.” The number of TV households will fall in 16 countries between 2019 and 2025 – with the region’s TV households dropping by 2.2 million over this period. Russia will account for half of the region’s pay TV subscribers in 2025, but it will lose 2.91 million pay TV subs between 2019 and 2025. The number of pay TV subscribers will fall in six countries between 2019 and 2025. For more information on the Eastern Europe Pay TV Forecasts report, please contact: Simon Murray, [email protected], Tel: +44 20 8248 5051 Eastern Europe Pay TV Forecasts Table of Contents Published in April 2020, this 204-page PDF, PowerPoint and excel report comes in three parts: • Outlook: Forecasts for 22 countries in a 50-page PowerPoint document full of charts, graphs and bullet points; • Excel workbook covering each year from 2010 to 2025 for 22 countries by household penetration, by pay TV subscribers, by pay TV revenues and by major operator. As well as summary tables by country and by platform; • Insight: Detailed country-by-country analysis in a 74-page PDF document. For more information, please click here or contact [email protected] Forecasts for the following 22 countries and 85 operators: Country No of ops Operators Albania 3 Digitalb; Tring; Albtelecom Belarus 3 MTIS, Zala, A1 Bosnia 3 Telemach, M:Tel; Total TV Bulgaria 3 Bulsatcom, Vivacom, A1 Croatia 3 Max TV/T-HT, Evo, A1 Cyprus 3 Cytavision; Cablenet; Primetel Czech Rep 5 UPC, O2, Digi TV, Skylink; T-Mobile Estonia 3 Elisa; Telia; TV Play Greece 3 Nova, Cosmote; Vodafone Hungary 6 T-Home, Digi TV, UPC, Invitel, MinDig, UPC Direct Latvia 3 Baltcom, Tet; TV Play Lithuania 3 TEO, Cgates, TV Play Macedonia 3 Vip/Boom; Max TV; Total TV Moldova 2 Sun; Moldtelecom Montenegro 2 Total TV; CT Poland 9 Multimedia Polska, UPC, Vectra, Inea, Toya, TP/Orange, Cyfra Polsat, Canal Plus, Netia Romania 5 RCS-RDS, UPC, Telekom Romania, Orange TV, Focussat Russia 8 Akado, ER Telecom, MTS, Rostelecom, Beeline/Veon, NTV Plus, Tricolor, Orion Serbia 2 SBB, Telekom Srbija Slovakia 4 UPC, Skylink, Nova Digi/Slovak Telekom; Orange TV Slovenia 5 Telemach, Neo TV, Total TV, T-2, A1 Ukraine 4 Volia; Triolan; Ukrtelecom; Viasat SAMPLE: Croatia pay TV insight • Despite the complete digital conversion since 2013, pay TV penetration was relatively low at 57% of the TV households by end-2019. This proportion will grow to 58.3% by 2025. Pay TV revenues will peak at $145 million in 2018. Main assumptions behind the forecasts • The number of TV households is in decline • The pay TV sector is very competitive. • Telco T-HT bought the pay DTT operator • IPTV will remain the most important pay TV platform. • The population is falling Source: Digital TV Research • About 30% of TV households pay for IPTV, with a further 12% for digital cable and 26% for FTA DTT. Croatia: Homes by platform (000) Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec 19 Cable 150 154 154 159 169 178 177 IPTV 391 394 387 398 414 424 437 Satellite 132 147 164 178 178 144 147 Pay DTT 31 48 61 60 67 73 70 Primary FTA DTT 792 753 729 700 652 661 650 TV households 1,536 1,536 1,536 1,495 1,480 1,480 Source: HAKOM • HAKOM estimated 831,000 pay TV subs at end-2019. Pay DTT and cable lost subscribers in 2018. • Foreign investment has led to pay TV consolidation. However, the market remains underdeveloped. T-HT (IPTV) and A1 (cable and satellite TV) had 87% of pay TV subs by December 2019. • MAXtv, owned by T-Hrvatski Telekom, leads the pay TV market. The company had 490,000 TV subscribers (including Evo pay DTT for the first time) at end- 2019. The number of satellite TV subs fell by 4.1%, but IPTV increased by 1.8% year-on-year. T-Hrvatski residential TV subscribers (000) Total IPTV Satellite Cable TV ARPU HRK Dec-13 369 320 43 6 75 Dec-14 370 312 52 6 79 Dec-15 364 296 63 6 81 Dec 16 401* 82 Dec 17 417* 81 Dec 19 490** 85 Source: T-HT * includes about 23,000 business subscribers. ** Pay DTT operator Evo consolidated into the accounts • As well as IPTV and a small cable operation, MAXtv launched a satellite TV platform in December 2010. We forecast 486,000 residential TV subscribers across all platforms by 2025. • SVOD platforms Nova Plus (HRK30/month. 3,500 hours of content. Was called Oyo), HBO Go (HRK59/month – free to its pay TV subs) and Pickbox (HRK39/month – free with top packages) are available. Deutsche Telekom signed a global distribution partnership with Netflix in November 2017. • T-Hrvatski (T-HT) is 51.4% owned by Deutsche Telekom. Deutsche Telekom is investing on upgrading and standardizing its European networks, including offering fixed broadband speeds of up to 400Mbps. T-Hrvatski had 621,000 retail fixed broadband subs and 2.27 million mobile ones by end-2019. • T-HT bid for Optima Telekom in August 2016, which was sanctioned by the regulator as long as the companies continue to operate separately. Telekom Austria operating stats in Croatia (000) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 TV subs 188.7 202.4 211.0 229.3 235.1 Fixed broadband subs 200.2 234.4 250.0 254.0 252.2 Mobile subs 1,734 1,720 1,773 1,833 1,848 Source: Telekom Austria • Top cable operator Bnet was acquired by Telekom Austria (through its Croatian subsidiary A1, formerly known as Vipnet) in June 2011 from fellow Austrian company Bewag for €93 million. A1 won the rights to the European Champions League for the 2018/19 to 2020/21 seasons. • Telekom Austria reported 235,100 TV subs by end-2019, which we expect to reach 217,000 by 2025. A1 also owns two of the three pay satellite TV platforms (Digi TV and Total TV), merging them under the A1 Sat TV brand. Nova Plus is also available for free to its subscribers. Its network will be upgraded to EuroDocsis 3.1, with broadband speeds increasing to up to 1Gbps. The company also had 1.85 million mobile subs by end-2019. • In November 2017, the regulator blocked United Media Group’s attempts to buy FTA broadcaster Nova from Central European Media Enterprises (CME) due mainly to monopoly concerns. United sold satellite TV platform Total TV to V-Investment Holdings in January 2018. However, United made a comeback in Croatia in June 2019 by acquiring Tele2. • In February 2012, OiV and Croatia Post jointly won licenses for two pay DTT multiplexes using the DVB-T2 standard to cover 95% of the country. In November 2018, Hrvatski Telekom acquired the Croatia Post license, which trades as Evo TV. Evo TV was fully introduced in February 2013. HAKOM estimated 70,000 pay DTT subs by end-2019. • Analog terrestrial switch-off was achieved in October 2010. HAKOM estimated 650,000 FTA DTT homes (also including FTA satellite TV households) by December 2019. • HAKOM awarded the license to operate the first two national DTT multiplexes to state-owned Odasiljaci Veze (OiV) in April 2009. The company won the license for another multiplex, which is mainly designated for regional and local channels, in mid-2010. There are 10 FTA national DTT channels. • DVB-T2 deployment started in 2019, with full conversion scheduled for mid- 2020. In February 2012, OiV and Croatia Post jointly won licenses for two pay DTT multiplexes using the DVB-T2 standard to cover 95% of the country. Croatia: Fixed broadband subs 2013 923,885 2014 952,182 2015 986,215 2016 1,043,795 2017 1,095,881 2018 1,120,360 2019 1,154,773 Source: Hakom Croatia pay TV forecasts 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Total households (000) TV households (000) Digital cable subs (000) Analog cable subs (000) Pay IPTV subscribers (000) Pay Digital Satellite TV subs (000) Free-to-air satellite TV HH (000) Analog terrestrial households (000) Primary FTA DTT households (000) Primary Pay DTT households (000) Digital homes (000) Analog homes (000) Pay TV subscribers (000) Digital cable subs/TV HH Analog cable subs/TV HH Pay IPTV subs/TV HH Pay Satellite TV/TV HH Free-to-air satellite TV/TV HH Analog terrestrial/TVHH Primary FTA DTT/TV HH Primary pay DTT/TV HH TVHH/Total HH Digital/TV HH Analog/TV HH Pay TV Subs/TV HH Stand-alone digital cable subs (000) Double-play digital cable subs (000) Triple-play digital cable subs (000) Stand-alone pay IPTV subs (000) Double-play pay IPTV subs (000) Triple-play pay IPTV subs (000) Croatia pay TV forecasts 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Revenues ($ million) Stand-alone digital cable revs Double-play dig cable TV revs Triple-play dig cable TV revs Digital cable TV subs revenues Digital cable TV on-demand revs Digital cable TV revenues Analog cable TV subs revs Cable TV revenues Stand-alone IPTV revenues Double-play IPTV revenues Triple-play IPTV revenues IPTV subscription revenues IPTV on-demand revenues IPTV revenues Satellite