90Th Josiah Willard Gibbs Lecture Wednesday, January 4, 2017 8:30–9:20 PM
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The Meaning of Probability
CHAPTER 2 THE MEANING OF PROBABILITY INTRODUCTION by Glenn Shafer The meaning of probability has been debated since the mathematical theory of probability was formulated in the late 1600s. The five articles in this section have been selected to provide perspective on the history and present state of this debate. Mathematical statistics provided the main arena for debating the meaning of probability during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. The debate was conducted mainly between two camps, the subjectivists and the frequentists. The subjectivists contended that the probability of an event is the degree to which someone believes it, as indicated by their willingness to bet or take other actions. The frequentists contended that probability of an event is the frequency with which it occurs. Leonard J. Savage (1917-1971), the author of our first article, was an influential subjectivist. Bradley Efron, the author of our second article, is a leading contemporary frequentist. A newer debate, dating only from the 1950s and conducted more by psychologists and economists than by statisticians, has been concerned with whether the rules of probability are descriptive of human behavior or instead normative for human and machine reasoning. This debate has inspired empirical studies of the ways people violate the rules. In our third article, Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman report on some of the results of these studies. In our fourth article, Amos Tversky and I propose that we resolve both debates by formalizing a constructive interpretation of probability. According to this interpretation, probabilities are degrees of belief deliberately constructed and adopted on the basis of evidence, and frequencies are only one among many types of evidence. -
Strength in Numbers: the Rising of Academic Statistics Departments In
Agresti · Meng Agresti Eds. Alan Agresti · Xiao-Li Meng Editors Strength in Numbers: The Rising of Academic Statistics DepartmentsStatistics in the U.S. Rising of Academic The in Numbers: Strength Statistics Departments in the U.S. Strength in Numbers: The Rising of Academic Statistics Departments in the U.S. Alan Agresti • Xiao-Li Meng Editors Strength in Numbers: The Rising of Academic Statistics Departments in the U.S. 123 Editors Alan Agresti Xiao-Li Meng Department of Statistics Department of Statistics University of Florida Harvard University Gainesville, FL Cambridge, MA USA USA ISBN 978-1-4614-3648-5 ISBN 978-1-4614-3649-2 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-4614-3649-2 Springer New York Heidelberg Dordrecht London Library of Congress Control Number: 2012942702 Ó Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. Exempted from this legal reservation are brief excerpts in connection with reviews or scholarly analysis or material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the Copyright Law of the Publisher’s location, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer. -
Bibliography
129 Bibliography [1] Stathopoulos A. and Levine M. Dorsal gradient networks in the Drosophila embryo. Dev. Bio, 246:57–67, 2002. [2] Khaled A. S. Abdel-Ghaffar. The determinant of random power series matrices over finite fields. Linear Algebra Appl., 315(1-3):139–144, 2000. [3] J. Alappattu and J. Pitman. Coloured loop-erased random walk on the complete graph. Combinatorics, Probability and Computing, 17(06):727–740, 2008. [4] Bruce Alberts, Dennis Bray, Karen Hopkin, Alexander Johnson, Julian Lewis, Martin Raff, Keith Roberts, and Peter Walter. essential cell biology; second edition. Garland Science, New York, 2004. [5] David Aldous. Stopping times and tightness. II. Ann. Probab., 17(2):586–595, 1989. [6] David Aldous. Probability distributions on cladograms. 76:1–18, 1996. [7] L. Ambrosio, A. P. Mahowald, and N. Perrimon. l(1)polehole is required maternally for patter formation in the terminal regions of the embryo. Development, 106:145–158, 1989. [8] George E. Andrews, Richard Askey, and Ranjan Roy. Special functions, volume 71 of Ency- clopedia of Mathematics and its Applications. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1999. [9] S. Astigarraga, R. Grossman, J. Diaz-Delfin, C. Caelles, Z. Paroush, and G. Jimenez. A mapk docking site is crtical for downregulation of capicua by torso and egfr rtk signaling. EMBO, 26:668–677, 2007. [10] K.B. Athreya and PE Ney. Branching processes. Dover Publications, 2004. [11] Julien Berestycki. Exchangeable fragmentation-coalescence processes and their equilibrium measures. Electron. J. Probab., 9:no. 25, 770–824 (electronic), 2004. [12] A. M. Berezhkovskii, L. Batsilas, and S. Y. Shvarstman. Ligand trapping in epithelial layers and cell cultures. -
Cramer, and Rao
2000 PARZEN PRIZE FOR STATISTICAL INNOVATION awarded by TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS to C. R. RAO April 24, 2000 292 Breezeway MSC 4 pm Pictures from Parzen Prize Presentation and Reception, 4/24/2000 The 2000 EMANUEL AND CAROL PARZEN PRIZE FOR STATISTICAL INNOVATION is awarded to C. Radhakrishna Rao (Eberly Professor of Statistics, and Director of the Center for Multivariate Analysis, at the Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802) for outstanding distinction and eminence in research on the theory of statistics, in applications of statistical methods in diverse fields, in providing international leadership for 55 years in directing statistical research centers, in continuing impact through his vision and effectiveness as a scholar and teacher, and in extensive service to American and international society. The year 2000 motivates us to plan for the future of the discipline of statistics which emerged in the 20th century as a firmly grounded mathematical science due to the pioneering research of Pearson, Gossett, Fisher, Neyman, Hotelling, Wald, Cramer, and Rao. Numerous honors and awards to Rao demonstrate the esteem in which he is held throughout the world for his unusually distinguished and productive life. C. R. Rao was born September 10, 1920, received his Ph.D. from Cambridge University (England) in 1948, and has been awarded 22 honorary doctorates. He has worked at the Indian Statistical Institute (1944-1992), University of Pittsburgh (1979- 1988), and Pennsylvania State University (1988- ). Professor Rao is the author (or co-author) of 14 books and over 300 publications. His pioneering contributions (in linear models, multivariate analysis, design of experiments and combinatorics, probability distribution characterizations, generalized inverses, and robust inference) are taught in statistics textbooks. -
Sam Karlin 1924—2007
Sam Karlin 1924—2007 This paper was written by Richard Olshen (Stanford University) and Burton Singer (Princeton University). It is a synthesis of written and oral contributions from seven of Karlin's former PhD students, four close colleagues, all three of his children, his wife, Dorit, and with valuable organizational assistance from Rafe Mazzeo (Chair, Department of Mathematics, Stanford University.) The contributing former PhD students were: Krishna Athreya (Iowa State University) Amir Dembo (Stanford University) Marcus Feldman (Stanford University) Thomas Liggett (UCLA) Charles Micchelli (SUNY, Albany) Yosef Rinott (Hebrew University, Jerusalem) Burton Singer (Princeton University) The contributing close colleagues were: Kenneth Arrow (Stanford University) Douglas Brutlag (Stanford University) Allan Campbell (Stanford University) Richard Olshen (Stanford University) Sam Karlin's children: Kenneth Karlin Manuel Karlin Anna Karlin Sam's wife -- Dorit Professor Samuel Karlin made fundamental contributions to game theory, analysis, mathematical statistics, total positivity, probability and stochastic processes, mathematical economics, inventory theory, population genetics, bioinformatics and biomolecular sequence analysis. He was the author or coauthor of 10 books and over 450 published papers, and received many awards and honors for his work. He was famous for his work ethic and for guiding Ph.D. students, who numbered more than 70. To describe the collection of his students as astonishing in excellence and breadth is to understate the truth of the matter. It is easy to argue—and Sam Karlin participated in many a good argument—that he was the foremost teacher of advanced students in his fields of study in the 20th Century. 1 Karlin was born in Yonova, Poland on June 8, 1924, and died at Stanford, California on December 18, 2007. -
The Generalized Simplex Method for Minimizing a Linear Form Under Linear Inequality Restraints
Pacific Journal of Mathematics IN THIS ISSUE— Leonard M. Blumenthal, An extension of a theorem of Jordan and von Neumann ............................................. 161 L. Carlitz, Note on the multiplication formulas for the Jacobi elliptic functions ................................................. 169 L. Carlitz, The number of solutions of certain types of equations in a finite field................................................. 177 George Bernard Dantzig, Alexander Orden and Philip Wolfe, The generalized simplex method for minimizing a linear form under linear inequality restraints ................................. 183 Arthur Pentland Dempster and Seymour Schuster, Constructions for poles and polars in n-dimensions . 197 Franklin Haimo, Power-type endomorphisms of some class 2 groups ................................................... 201 Lloyd Kenneth Jackson, On generalized subharmonic functions . 215 Samuel Karlin, On the renewal equation . 229 Frank R. Olson, Some determinants involving Bernoulli and Euler numbers of higher order ................................... 259 R. S. Phillips, The adjoint semi-group ............................ 269 Alfred Tarski, A lattice-theoretical fixpoint theorem and its applications .............................................. 285 Anne C. Davis, A characterization of complete lattices. 311 Vol. 5, No. 2 October, 1955 PACIFIC JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICS EDITORS H. L. ROYDEN R. P. DILWORTH Stanford University California Institute of Technology- Stanford, California Pasadena 4, California E. HEWITT A. -
Statistical Inference: Paradigms and Controversies in Historic Perspective
Jostein Lillestøl, NHH 2014 Statistical inference: Paradigms and controversies in historic perspective 1. Five paradigms We will cover the following five lines of thought: 1. Early Bayesian inference and its revival Inverse probability – Non-informative priors – “Objective” Bayes (1763), Laplace (1774), Jeffreys (1931), Bernardo (1975) 2. Fisherian inference Evidence oriented – Likelihood – Fisher information - Necessity Fisher (1921 and later) 3. Neyman- Pearson inference Action oriented – Frequentist/Sample space – Objective Neyman (1933, 1937), Pearson (1933), Wald (1939), Lehmann (1950 and later) 4. Neo - Bayesian inference Coherent decisions - Subjective/personal De Finetti (1937), Savage (1951), Lindley (1953) 5. Likelihood inference Evidence based – likelihood profiles – likelihood ratios Barnard (1949), Birnbaum (1962), Edwards (1972) Classical inference as it has been practiced since the 1950’s is really none of these in its pure form. It is more like a pragmatic mix of 2 and 3, in particular with respect to testing of significance, pretending to be both action and evidence oriented, which is hard to fulfill in a consistent manner. To keep our minds on track we do not single out this as a separate paradigm, but will discuss this at the end. A main concern through the history of statistical inference has been to establish a sound scientific framework for the analysis of sampled data. Concepts were initially often vague and disputed, but even after their clarification, various schools of thought have at times been in strong opposition to each other. When we try to describe the approaches here, we will use the notions of today. All five paradigms of statistical inference are based on modeling the observed data x given some parameter or “state of the world” , which essentially corresponds to stating the conditional distribution f(x|(or making some assumptions about it). -
AVAILABLE from DOCUMENT RESUME National Science
DOCUMENT RESUME ED 296 906 SE 049 445 TITLE National Science Foundation Annual Report 1987. INSTITUTION Natioral Science Foundation, Washington, D.C. REPORT NO NSF-88-1 PUB DATE 88 NOTE 116p.; Photographs may not reproduce well. See ED 284 736 for 1986 Annual Report. AVAILABLE FROMSuperintendent of Documents, U.S. Governmment Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402. PUB TYPE Reports - Descriptive (141) EDRS PRICE MF01/PC05 Plus Postage. DESCRIPTORS *College Science; Computer Science; *Engineering; Engineers; Financial Support; Grants; Higher Education; *Industry; Mathematics; Research Opportunities; Science Education; *Sciences; *Scientists; Secondary Educ :ion; Secondary School Science; *Technological Advancement IDENTIFIERS *National Science Foundation ABSTRACT The imbalance between the supply and demand for new knowledge is a very important feature with regard to science and engineering. Whereas the supply of new knowledge appears unlimited, the demand for new knowledge is much greater. In the years to come, more knowledge will be needed to cope with world problems. Knowledge is a most important resource along with the scientists and engineers who produce it. Many believe that increasing the supply of knowledge requires solving the problems of education and devoting the necessary resources to basic research. This publication contains seven chapters, a director's statement, highlights, awards, operational and organizational news, and a conclusion. The first chapter gives perspectives for the 1990s. Chapter 2, on human resources and education, outlines precollege education, undergraduate and graduate education, other activities, and public outreach. Chapter 3 explains disciplinary research in fields including the sciences, mathematics, and small businesses. Chapter 4 deals with basic research of centers and groups, and instrumentation. -
David Donoho. 50 Years of Data Science. Journal of Computational
Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics ISSN: 1061-8600 (Print) 1537-2715 (Online) Journal homepage: https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/ucgs20 50 Years of Data Science David Donoho To cite this article: David Donoho (2017) 50 Years of Data Science, Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 26:4, 745-766, DOI: 10.1080/10618600.2017.1384734 To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/10618600.2017.1384734 © 2017 The Author(s). Published with license by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC© David Donoho Published online: 19 Dec 2017. Submit your article to this journal Article views: 46147 View related articles View Crossmark data Citing articles: 104 View citing articles Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at https://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=ucgs20 JOURNAL OF COMPUTATIONAL AND GRAPHICAL STATISTICS , VOL. , NO. , – https://doi.org/./.. Years of Data Science David Donoho Department of Statistics, Stanford University, Standford, CA ABSTRACT ARTICLE HISTORY More than 50 years ago, John Tukey called for a reformation of academic statistics. In “The Future of Data science Received August Analysis,” he pointed to the existence of an as-yet unrecognized , whose subject of interest was Revised August learning from data, or “data analysis.” Ten to 20 years ago, John Chambers, Jeff Wu, Bill Cleveland, and Leo Breiman independently once again urged academic statistics to expand its boundaries beyond the KEYWORDS classical domain of theoretical statistics; Chambers called for more emphasis on data preparation and Cross-study analysis; Data presentation rather than statistical modeling; and Breiman called for emphasis on prediction rather than analysis; Data science; Meta inference. -
A Conversation with Richard A. Olshen 3
Statistical Science 2015, Vol. 30, No. 1, 118–132 DOI: 10.1214/14-STS492 c Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2015 A Conversation with Richard A. Olshen John A. Rice Abstract. Richard Olshen was born in Portland, Oregon, on May 17, 1942. Richard spent his early years in Chevy Chase, Maryland, but has lived most of his life in California. He received an A.B. in Statistics at the University of California, Berkeley, in 1963, and a Ph.D. in Statistics from Yale University in 1966, writing his dissertation under the direction of Jimmie Savage and Frank Anscombe. He served as Research Staff Statistician and Lecturer at Yale in 1966–1967. Richard accepted a faculty appointment at Stanford University in 1967, and has held tenured faculty positions at the University of Michigan (1972–1975), the University of California, San Diego (1975–1989), and Stanford University (since 1989). At Stanford, he is Professor of Health Research and Policy (Biostatistics), Chief of the Division of Biostatistics (since 1998) and Professor (by courtesy) of Electrical Engineering and of Statistics. At various times, he has had visiting faculty positions at Columbia, Harvard, MIT, Stanford and the Hebrew University. Richard’s research interests are in statistics and mathematics and their applications to medicine and biology. Much of his work has concerned binary tree-structured algorithms for classification, regression, survival analysis and clustering. Those for classification and survival analysis have been used with success in computer-aided diagnosis and prognosis, especially in cardiology, oncology and toxicology. He coauthored the 1984 book Classi- fication and Regression Trees (with Leo Brieman, Jerome Friedman and Charles Stone) which gives motivation, algorithms, various examples and mathematical theory for what have come to be known as CART algorithms. -
RM Calendar 2019
Rudi Mathematici x3 – 6’141 x2 + 12’569’843 x – 8’575’752’975 = 0 www.rudimathematici.com 1 T (1803) Guglielmo Libri Carucci dalla Sommaja RM132 (1878) Agner Krarup Erlang Rudi Mathematici (1894) Satyendranath Bose RM168 (1912) Boris Gnedenko 2 W (1822) Rudolf Julius Emmanuel Clausius (1905) Lev Genrichovich Shnirelman (1938) Anatoly Samoilenko 3 T (1917) Yuri Alexeievich Mitropolsky January 4 F (1643) Isaac Newton RM071 5 S (1723) Nicole-Reine Étable de Labrière Lepaute (1838) Marie Ennemond Camille Jordan Putnam 2004, A1 (1871) Federigo Enriques RM084 Basketball star Shanille O’Keal’s team statistician (1871) Gino Fano keeps track of the number, S( N), of successful free 6 S (1807) Jozeph Mitza Petzval throws she has made in her first N attempts of the (1841) Rudolf Sturm season. Early in the season, S( N) was less than 80% of 2 7 M (1871) Felix Edouard Justin Émile Borel N, but by the end of the season, S( N) was more than (1907) Raymond Edward Alan Christopher Paley 80% of N. Was there necessarily a moment in between 8 T (1888) Richard Courant RM156 when S( N) was exactly 80% of N? (1924) Paul Moritz Cohn (1942) Stephen William Hawking Vintage computer definitions 9 W (1864) Vladimir Adreievich Steklov Advanced User : A person who has managed to remove a (1915) Mollie Orshansky computer from its packing materials. 10 T (1875) Issai Schur (1905) Ruth Moufang Mathematical Jokes 11 F (1545) Guidobaldo del Monte RM120 In modern mathematics, algebra has become so (1707) Vincenzo Riccati important that numbers will soon only have symbolic (1734) Achille Pierre Dionis du Sejour meaning. -
Algorithmic Social Sciences Research Unit
View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Research Papers in Economics Algorithmic Social Sciences Research Unit ASSRU Department of Economics University of Trento Via Inama 5 381 22 Trento, Italy Discussion Paper Series 2 – 2012/I Computability and Algorithmic Complexity in Economics. K. Vela Velupillai & Stefano Zambelli January 2012 . Rabin's effectivization of the Gale-Stewart Game [42] remains the model methodological contribution to the field for which Velupillai coined the name Computable Economics more than 20 years ago. Alain Lewis was the first to link Rabin's work with Simon's fertile concept of bounded rationality and interpret them in terms of Alan Turing's work. Solomonoff (1964), one of the three -- the other two being Kolmogorov and Chaitin -- acknowledged pioneers of algorithmic complexity theory, had his starting point in one aspect of what Velupillai [72] came to call the Modern Theory of Induction, an aspect which had its origins in Keynes [23]. Kolmogorov's resurrection of von Mises [80] and the genesis of Kolmogorov complexity via computability theoretic foundations for a frequency theory of probability has given a new lease of life to finance theory [49]. Rabin's classic of computable economics stands in the long and distinguished tradition of game theory that goes back to Zermelo [84], Banach & Mazur [5], Steinhaus [62] and Euwe [14]. Abstract This is an outline of the origins and development of the way computability theory and algorithmic complexity theory were incorporated into economic and …nance theories. We try to place, in the context of the development of com- putable economics, some of the classics of the subject as well as those that have, from time to time, been credited with having contributed to the advancement of the …eld.