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Eros International (EROINT) | 226 Target : | 225 Target Period : 12 Months Strong Content Pipeline Ahead… Potential Upside : 0%

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Eros International (EROINT) | 226 Target : | 225 Target Period : 12 Months Strong Content Pipeline Ahead… Potential Upside : 0% Result Update September 9, 2016 Rating matrix Rating : Hold Eros International (EROINT) | 226 Target : | 225 Target Period : 12 months Strong content pipeline ahead… Potential Upside : 0% Revenues came in at | 408.2 crore higher than expectations of What’s changed? | 363.8 crore aided by the successful box-office run of some of the Target Unchanged Eros banner films such as Housefull 3’, Ki and Ka, Sardaar Gabbar EPS FY17E Changed from | 21.4 to | 23.4 Singh’ (Telugu), 24’ (Tamil), and Nil Battey Sannata’ among a host of EPS FY18E Unchanged other films. The revenues were also aided by satellites sales of some Rating Unchanged of the movies released in the quarter Quarterly performance EBITDA came in at | 81.0 crore vs. our expectation of | 71.8 crore Q1FY17 Q1FY16 YoY (%) Q4FY16 QoQ (%) while margins came in at 19.8%. Though the costs were higher than Revenue 408.2 472.5 -13.6 269.9 51.2 expectations, increased contribution from the higher margin earning EBITDA 81.0 89.5 (9.5) 32.1 152.2 satellite revenues helped Eros in clocking in-line margins. EBITDA (%) 19.8 18.9 91 bps 11.9 794 bps PAT came in at | 58.9 crore, higher than our estimate of | 39.7 crore PAT 58.9 53.4 10.3 32.7 79.9 owing to the beat at the operating performance level and lower than expected tax expenses Key financials | Crore FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E Leading producer/distributor with one of the largest film libraries Net Sales 1,421 1,583 1,747 2,158 Eros, a producer/distributor, has a large film library of over 2000 films. EBITDA 349 324 375 497 The company has also launched Trinity Pictures to focus on franchise Net Profit 247 214 219 263 films. The first movie from the arm is likely to get released by FY18E. The EPS (|) 26.7 22.9 23.4 28.2 company released 63 movies in FY16 across Hindi, Tamil/Telugu and other languages, of which six were high budget movies. Eros continues to Valuation summary get its movie selection right and boasts of blockbusters such as Bajrangi FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E P/E 8.5 9.9 9.6 8.0 Bhaijaan, Bajirao Mastani, Tanu Weds Manu Returns from its stable. Target P/E 8.4 9.8 9.6 8.0 Hence, FY16 saw 28.0% YoY growth in domestic theatrical revenues to EV / EBITDA 6.8 6.6 7.0 5.8 | 693.2 crore. With a strong movie slate with movies like Baar Baar P/BV 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 Dekho, Banjo, Rock On 2 in the pipeline, we expect domestic theatrical RoNW 16.7 12.1 11.6 12.2 revenues of | 683.8 crore & | 684.6 crore in FY17E & FY18E, respectively. RoCE 16.7 14.0 13.2 14.9 Catalogue sales to rise further as receivables come under control Stock data Catalogue revenues have longer payment cycles associated with them. Particular Amount Eros was indeed able to bring down receivables from | 525.7 crore (FY15) Market Capitalization (| Crore) 2,115.4 to | 428.2 crore (FY16) by deferring the catalogue revenues for a couple Total Debt (FY15) (| Crore) 425.0 of quarters. Hence, the number of days has come down from 135 to 98 Cash (FY15) (| Crore) 169.7 over the same period. Eros indicated there were renewed deals with EV 2,370.7 shorter payment cycles while catalogue revenues would again rebound to 52 week H/L 546 / 128 20% and 25% of revenues in FY17E and FY18, respectively, from 15.0% Equity capital 92.5 in FY16. We have re-aligned our estimates in line with the guidance. Face value 10 Delivering on clearer transfer pricing terms… There have been certain changes in the transfer pricing agreement with Eros International PLC. As per changes, the overseas rights including global digital media rights to Eros International Plc, is to be now transferred at 40% of the production cost of each film with an additional mark-up of 20% vs. 30% of the production cost with a mark-up of 30.0% earlier. The amortisation of a new film produced is increased to 76% of content cost in the first year from 72%. Eros India will hold an equity stake of 10-15% in the global digital business structure at a marginal cost. Hence, it can participate in the long term value creation of the ErosNow business. We have, however, not assigned any value to Eros Now currently as revenues remain marginal/unclear as of now. Eros Now potential still remains unclear; maintain HOLD Research Analyst The company has done its best to come clear of the recent allegations. Bhupendra Tiwary The new transfer pricing mechanism is an added positive. However, [email protected] clarity on the Eros Now potential and rationale for 10-15% stake would Sneha Agarwal have been better. We value Eros at 8x FY18E EPS arriving at a target price [email protected] of | 225. We maintain HOLD. ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Variance analysis esl Q1FY17 Q1FY17E Q1FY16 Q4FY16 YoY (%) QoQ (%) Comments Revenue 408.2 363.8 472.5 269.9 -13.6 51.2 Revenues were aided by the successful box-office run of some of the Eros banner films such as ‘Housefull 3’, ‘Ki and Ka’, ‘Sardaar Gabbar Singh’ (Telugu), ‘24’ (Tamil), and ‘Nil Battey Sannata’. The revenues were also boosted by satellites sales of some of the movies released in the quarter. Other Income 2.2 2.5 8.1 4.8 -73.0 -54.7 Raw Material Expenses 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA Employee Expenses 17.5 10.9 10.9 16.5 61.3 6.4 Administrative Expenses 21.8 9.1 10.1 9.9 116.9 120.0 Operating Expenses 317.1 272.0 230.2 208.3 37.7 52.2 The content costs of the movies was slightly higher than expectations given the mix of movie slate released during the quarter Changes in inventories of finished goods -29.2 0.0 131.9 3.1 -122.1 -1,040.6 EBITDA 81.0 71.8 89.5 32.1 -9.5 152.2 EBITDA Margin (%) 19.8 19.7 18.9 11.9 91 bps 794 bps Margins were largely in line with our estimates Depreciation 2.2 1.6 1.3 2.4 69.0 -9.5 Interest 9.4 9.6 8.5 7.0 11.1 34.1 Total Tax 18.1 21.4 24.5 -5.0 -25.9 -465.5 PAT 58.9 39.7 53.4 32.7 10.3 79.9 The earnings beat was driven by superior topline and higher than anticipated operating profits Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Change in estimates FY17E FY18E (| Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change Comments Revenue 1,698.1 1,747.1 2.9 2,157.5 2,157.5 0.0 We have incoporated Q1FY17 topline beat, which has led to upward revision in topline for FY17E EBITDA 366.1 375.4 2.5 498.5 497.4 -0.2 EBITDA Margin (%) 21.6 21.5 -11 bps 23.1 23.1 -5 bps PAT 200.0 219.4 9.7 263.6 263.5 0.0 The earnings upward revision is largely owing to higher topline estimates EPS (|) 21.4 23.4 9.5 28.2 28.2 -0.2 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 2 Company Analysis Content pipeline The company released 63 movies in FY16 across Hindi, Tamil/Telugu and other languages, of which six were high budget, 16 were medium budget and 41 low budget movies. The company continues to get its movie selection right, evident from its presence in three out of top four box office releases. Bajrangi Bhaijaan, Bajirao Mastani, Tanu Weds Manu Returns and Welcome Back were superhits in FY16. In addition, Eros is rapidly increasing its footprint in the regional domain with movies that have fared quite well such as Srimanthudu (Telugu), Lingaa (multi- lingual), Aagadu (Telugu), Kaththi (Tamil), etc. Hence, FY16 saw 28.0% YoY growth in domestic theatrical revenues to | 693.2 crore. With the strong movie slate with movies such as Baar Baar Dekho, Banjo, Rock On 2 in the pipeline, we expect domestic theatrical revenues of | 683.8 crore & | 684.6 crore in FY17E & FY18E, respectively Exhibit 1: Content pipeline till FY17E Movie name Starcast / (Director) Expected Housefull 3 Akshay Kumar, Riteish Deshmukh, Abhishek / (Nadiadwala / Sajid Farhad) Q1FY17 Ganvesh Kishore Kadam, Mukta Barve, Dilip, Smita / (Atu Jagdale) Q1FY17 & Jara Hatke Indraneil Sengupta & Mrinal Kulkarni / (Ravi Jadhav) Q1FY17 White Mammootty, Huma Qureshi, Shankar Ramakrishnan / (Uday Amanthan) Q1FY17 Saat Kadam Amit Sadh, Deeksha Seth, Ronit Roy / (Mohit Jha) Q1FY17 Naale Fahad Fazil, Malavika S Mohan, Isha Talwar, Mukesh (Shiju S Bawa) Q2FY17 Happy Bhaag Jayegi Abhay Deol & Diana Penty / (Colour Yellow / Mudassar Aziz) Q2FY17 Dishoom John Abraham, Varun Dhawan, Jackie Fernandez / (Nadiadwala / Rohit Dhawan Q2 FY17 Banjo Riteish Deshmukh & Nargis Fakhri / (Ravi Jadhav) Q2 FY17 Baar Baar Dekho Siddharth Malhotra & Katrina Kaif / (Dharma / Nitya Mehra) Q2 FY17 Ticket to Bollywood Amyra Dastoor, Diganth Manchale / (Eros) Q2 FY17 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Reduced receivables, B/S improves, Catalogue sales to rise Catalogue revenues have longer payment cycles associated with them. In FY16, the company had deferred sales for a couple of quarters to enable the receivables position to normalise. Eros was indeed able to bring down receivables from | 525.7 crore (FY15) to | 428.2 crore (FY16).
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