Solar Works for Oregon The Vast Potential of Solar Power to Protect Our Environment and Create Jobs Solar Works for Oregon The Vast Potential of Solar Power to Protect Our Environment and Create Jobs Travis Madsen and Jordan Schneider, Frontier Group Sarah Higginbotham, Environment Oregon Research & Policy Center Summer 2012 Acknowledgments Environment Oregon Research & Policy Center gratefully acknowledges Chris Dymond at enXco, Glenn Montgomery at the Oregon Solar Energy Industry Association, Jana Gastellum at the Oregon Environmental Council, John Audley at Renewable Northwest Project, Bob Jenks at the Citizens Utility Board, Imogen Taylor and Claire Carlson at Solar Oregon, Meghan Nutting at Solar City, Brian Pasko at the Oregon Chapter of the Sierra Club, and Chris Robertson for their insightful feedback on early drafts of this report. Additional thanks to Tony Dutzik and Elizabeth Ridlington at Frontier Group, and Rob Sargent and Bernadette Del Chiaro at Environment Oregon Research & Policy Center for advice and editorial assistance. The generous financial support of The Energy Foundation and Tilia Foundation made this report possible. The opinions expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of our funders or the experts who provided review. Any factual errors are strictly the responsibility of the authors. Copyright 2012 Environment Oregon Research & Policy Center Environment Oregon Research & Policy Center is a 501(c)(3) organization. We are dedicated to protecting Oregon’s air, water and open spaces. We investigate problems, craft solutions, educate the public and decision makers, and help Oregonians make their voices heard in local, state and national debates over the quality of our environment and our lives. For more information about Environment Oregon Research & Policy Center or for additional copies of this report, please visit our website at www.environmentoregoncenter.org. Frontier Group conducts independent research and policy analysis to support a cleaner, healthier and more democratic society. Our mission is to inject accurate information and compelling ideas into public policy debates at the local, state and federal levels. For more information about Frontier Group, please visit our website at www.frontiergroup.org. Cover Photo: LL28 Photography Layout: Harriet Eckstein Graphic Design Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Introduction 4 Oregon Has Massive Untapped Solar Energy Resources 6 The Sun Shines on Oregon 6 Millions of Oregon Buildings Are Suitable for Solar Development 9 Solar Power Can Supply 10 Percent of Oregon’s Electricity by 2025 10 Solar Energy Protects Oregon’s Environment and Strengthens the Economy 16 Global Warming Threatens Oregon 16 Solar Energy Prevents Global Warming Pollution 18 Solar Energy Can Create Jobs and Strengthen Oregon’s Economy 18 Policy Recommendations 20 Methodology 24 Notes 28 Oregon has vast untapped potential for solar energy. Solar energy systems—like this rooftop solar photovolatic and solar water heating system—could meet 10 percent of Oregon’s electric- ity needs and 6 percent of its water heating energy needs by 2025. Credit: Energy Trust, John Cunningham Executive Summary regon has vast untapped potential Oregon sunlight is an enormous for solar energy. In the eastern two- source of untapped energy potential. Othirds of the state, Oregon’s solar resource rivals that of California’s sunny • Utilizing all available rooftop space Central Valley. Even in the often cloudy with suitable sun exposure, Oregon Willamette Valley, the sun still shines for could technically install 10 gigawatts far more over the course of the year than (GW) of rooftop solar photovoltaic it does in Germany, which has the world’s (PV) power systems by 2025—which largest solar market. would generate about 20 percent Solar power can supply 10 percent of Oregon’s forecast electricity use of Oregon’s electricity by 2025. At the in that year. Rooftop solar provides same time, solar thermal power can reduce unique advantages for the electricity Oregon’s energy use for water heating by 6 system because the power is gener- percent. This level of solar energy produc- ated close to where it will be used, tion could be achieved through a combina- minimizing the need to invest in tion of rooftop solar photovoltaic panels, power lines and other infrastructure rooftop solar water heating systems, and and increasing the reliability of elec- utility-scale solar power stations. tricity service. Taking advantage of the state’s solar energy potential would reduce Oregon’s • Oregon could feasibly develop almost contribution to global warming and pro- 30 percent of that rooftop solar tect its environment. More solar power potential in the next 13 years. Doing would also create jobs and boost manu- so would yield 3 GW of local solar facturing in Oregon. Putting policies in photovoltaic capacity by 2025. (See place to accelerate the growth of the solar Figure ES-1.) This amount of solar energy market will allow Oregon to start power would generate the equivalent reaping these benefits immediately. of nearly 6 percent of Oregon’s Executive Summary annual electricity needs in 2025, or energy use for residential and com- 3.3 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh). mercial water heating by 6 percent, That is enough electricity to power saving an additional 370 million kWh 250,000 typical Oregon homes—or of electricity and 2 billion cubic feet all the homes in the city of Portland. of natural gas per year. That much energy could meet the full water • New utility-scale solar power plants heating needs of more than 150,000 built on vacant land could generate Oregon households. another 3 billion kWh annually by 2025, bringing solar energy to 10 Solar energy prevents global warm- percent of Oregon’s electricity supply. ing pollution and protects Oregon’s environment. • Installing rooftop solar water heating systems at the same pace as roof- • At this rate of growth, by 2025 solar top solar PV would yield 290,000 energy in Oregon would annually residential-scale systems and 16,000 prevent 3.8 million metric tons of commercial-scale systems by 2025. carbon dioxide pollution, reducing Those systems could capture enough the state’s contribution to global solar energy to reduce Oregon’s warming by nearly 8 percent in Figure ES-1. Potential Solar Photovoltaic Market Growth in Oregon Through 2025 8,000 6,000 (GWh) Solar Electric Generation Utility-Scale Solar (Left Axis) ) dc 7,000 Rooftop Solar PV (Left Axis) 5,000 Total Solar Electricity Generation (Right Axis) 6,000 4,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 2,000 Solar Solar Capacity (MW 2,000 1,000 1,000 0 0 MWdc stands for direct current megawatts, a measure of power generation capacity. GWh stands for gigawatt-hours, a measure of electricity output, in this case during a given year. 2 Solar Works for Oregon that year. This would be equivalent and maintenance—jobs that cannot to eliminating the emissions from be outsourced. 730,000 passenger cars on the road today. Oregon should enact policies to accelerate solar energy development. • Preventing global warming pollution is critical to ensure a stable environ- • Oregon should set a goal of generat- ment. Unchecked, global warming ing 10 percent of its electricity from threatens to increase average tem- solar energy by 2025, and a parallel peratures in Oregon by as much as goal of installing 300,000 residen- 10° F by the 2080s. Temperature rise tial and commercial solar water on this scale would reduce winter heating systems by 2025. The state snowpack, threaten urban and rural could achieve these goals through water supplies, interfere with agricul- a combination of expanded incen- ture and salmon habitat, and create tive programs (such as the program health threats—including increased run by the Energy Trust of Oregon), air pollution, exposure to extreme a scaled-up CLEAN program (a heat and weather events, and intro- “feed-in tariff”), and/or by expanding duction of new diseases. At the same the solar carve-out in its renewable time, global warming pollution is electricity standard. acidifying the ocean, threatening salmon and other ocean species. • Oregon should standardize net-metering rules statewide and Increasing the market for solar raise the net-metering cap to a power in Oregon could make the state minimum of 5 percent of utility a leader in the regional solar power peak aggregate demand—eventually industry, create jobs and boost the eliminating the cap altogether. state economy. Net-metering should allow every individual, business or community • Oregon’s solar industry today em- that installs a solar energy system to ploys 3,300 workers at 545 firms— earn fair compensation for the and its solar job market is growing electricity they produce. faster than in all but five other states. • Oregon should create a net-zero • Oregon has already attracted at least energy building code, requiring all six major solar technology manu- new homes to generate the equiva- facturers, including SolarWorld in lent of their entire energy use annu- Hillsboro, a company that employs ally by 2020, and all new commercial more than 1,000 people at America’s buildings by 2030. largest solar PV manufacturing facility. • Oregon should reinvigorate state financing programs, such as the • Expanding Oregon’s solar energy Residential Energy Tax Credits, and market would create thousands of reinstate the Business Energy Tax additional jobs in system manufactur- Credit for a variety of renewable ing, and particularly in installation energy technologies. Executive Summary Introduction regonians care about the future. free electricity. Architects in Portland are When it comes to protecting the building super energy-efficient buildings, Ostate’s environment and natural re- reducing the need to burn coal and natural sources for future generations, the state gas. Planners are increasing low-impact has an admirable record. transportation options, from rail lines to Oregonians had the foresight to create pedestrian- and bike-friendly communi- the nation’s most innovative and effective ties, reducing Oregon’s need for gasoline land-use laws, which have helped to pre- and diesel fuels.