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Toward Understanding the Nature of Leadership in Alleviating State Fragility Ajay Tejasvi Narasimhan Claremont Graduate University

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Toward Understanding the Nature of Leadership in Alleviating State Fragility Ajay Tejasvi Narasimhan Claremont Graduate University Claremont Colleges Scholarship @ Claremont CGU Theses & Dissertations CGU Student Scholarship 2012 Toward Understanding the Nature of Leadership in Alleviating State Fragility Ajay Tejasvi Narasimhan Claremont Graduate University Recommended Citation Narasimhan, Ajay Tejasvi, "Toward Understanding the Nature of Leadership in Alleviating State Fragility" (2012). CGU Theses & Dissertations. Paper 27. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cgu_etd/27 DOI: 10.5642/cguetd/27 This Open Access Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the CGU Student Scholarship at Scholarship @ Claremont. It has been accepted for inclusion in CGU Theses & Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Scholarship @ Claremont. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Toward Understanding the Nature of Leadership in Alleviating State Fragility By Ajay Tejasvi Narasimhan Claremont Graduate University 2012 © Copyright Ajay Tejasvi Narasimhan, 2012 All rights reserved. APPROVAL OF THE REVIEW COMMITTEE This dissertation has been duly read, reviewed, and critiqued by the Committee listed below, which hereby approves the manuscript of Ajay Tejasvi Narasimhan as fulfilling the scope and quality requirements for meriting the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science. Prof. Alfred Balitzer, Chair, Claremont Graduate University Board of Visitors of the School of Politics and Economics and Senior Fellow Prof. Jean Lipman-Blumen Claremont Graduate University Thornton F. Bradshaw Professor of Public Policy and Professor of Organizational Behavior Prof. Michael Uhlmann Claremont Graduate University Clinical Professor Dr. Sanjay Pradhan World Bank Institute Vice-President ABSTRACT Toward Understanding the Role of Leadership in Alleviating State Fragility By Ajay Tejasvi Narasimhan Claremont Graduate University: 2012 Approximately sixty countries have been designated ‘Fragile States’ by international development agencies. Home to two billion of the world’s poorest people, these fragile states are characterized by violence, weak institutions and shattered economies. Not only do they pose a challenge to regional security, they often become the breeding grounds for terrorism. Donor agencies pour billions of dollars annually into these countries – through policy advice and conditional loans – to alleviate fragility and promote development. Development, however it is defined, involves economic, social and political transformation. Such a transformation is shaped by ideas, engages multiple interests, and proceeds within rules and norms set by political institutions. Since the structure of political institutions is influenced by human agency, leadership becomes important to study. Leadership is crucial particularly in fragile states, where institutions are weak or have been destroyed by conflict; however, a systematic effort to examine the role of leaders and coalitions in fragile states is lacking. This dissertation seeks to create a methodology to improve understanding of the role of different leadership strategies in bringing about transitions in and out of fragility. To make the scope manageable, the study focuses on: (i) leadership at the national level; and (ii) fragile states in Africa. It does so by examining: (i) evidence from country level panel data on leadership (regime) change and fragility; and (ii) in-depth analytical case studies of transitions in and out of fragility in four countries: Zimbabwe, Uganda, Rwanda, and South Africa. The analysis looks at the relationship between the change agent’s leadership strategy (the independent variable: political participation and inclusion, economic growth and inclusion, and security and justice) and fragility outcomes (dependent variable: conflict and security indicators, economic indicators, and the approach to political inclusion). The results of the regression analysis exhibit a robust association between leadership change and fragility. Furthermore, the country cases show how different types of leadership strategies lead to varying trajectories of fragile states’ post-transition. The case studies reveal different approaches to sequencing of political inclusion and the role of leadership exit in transitions from fragility. DEDICATION To my Gurudev, my Grandparents, and my Parents. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The author wishes to express sincerest appreciation to the Department of Politics and Policy for its support and willingness to work with my individual track requirements and especially to Professor Alfred Balitzer without whose support and guidance this dissertation would not have been possible. I am grateful to Dr. Sanjay Pradhan for his inspirational guidance as well as hands-on advice on a regular basis. His steadfast support was crucial in helping me walk the distance. I thank Professor Jean Lipman-Blumen for her abundant guidance, her gift of rigor, and for reminding me that learning is a joyous activity. I thank Professor Michael Uhlmann for his support of my interest in leadership and for allowing me to craft my track of study at CGU. I am also thankful to Ed Campos, Craig Hammer, and Alexander Hamilton at the World Bank, whose substantive inputs have been vital to the completion of this dissertation. I am grateful to Madhushri for her support and understanding during my doctoral studies. This dissertation would never have been completed without the encouragement and love of my brother Arvind, and my family. Thanks to Karthik for his help with the number crunching. Thanks to Manoj for his medical advice and Shailesh for transporting me to the airport and back. To all my friends, thank you for all your patience and kindness. vi Table of Contents 1. The Challenge of Fragile States .................................................................. 1 Why the Global Focus on Fragile States ................................................................... 1 The Purpose and Focus of this Dissertation ............................................................ 2 Whither the Winds of Change? .......................................................................................... 2 The Global Impact of Fragile States ................................................................................... 5 Definitions of “Fragile States” .................................................................................. 8 What Causes State Fragility? ................................................................................... 11 Understanding the Causes of State Fragility .................................................................... 11 The Impact of Path Dependence ...................................................................................... 14 Political Fragmentation and Weak Institutions .............................................................. 16 How to Assist Fragile States? .................................................................................. 21 2. Understanding Leadership ....................................................................... 25 Does Leadership Really Matter? ............................................................................ 25 What is the Meaning of Leadership? ...................................................................... 30 Defining Leadership .......................................................................................................... 31 Definitional Evolution and Classification ................................................................................. 32 Limitations in the Literature ........................................................................................... 50 Focus of this Study ................................................................................................... 51 3. Leadership and Fragility: A Cross-Country Analysis ............................... 52 Analytical Framework ............................................................................................ 52 Assumptions ...................................................................................................................... 52 Measuring Fragility (Dependent Variable of Interest) ......................................... 53 Measuring Leadership Change (Independent Variable of Interest) ..................... 56 What is a Regime? ............................................................................................................ 58 What is a Regime Change? .............................................................................................. 59 Statistical Analysis .................................................................................................. 60 Sample and Variables ....................................................................................................... 60 Bivariate Analysis ............................................................................................................. 63 Regression Model Specification ...................................................................................... 64 Factor Analysis .................................................................................................................. 66 Regression Analysis Results ............................................................................................. 66 Disaggregating Leadership .................................................................................... 68 4. Leadership and Fragility: Country Case Studies ..................................... 70 Rationale behind Choice of Country Cases ..........................................................
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