DOCSLIB.ORG

Italy: No World Cup, but New Elections Likely

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Italy: No World Cup, but New Elections Likely Global Economics & Markets Research Email: [email protected] URL: www.uob.com.sg/research Macro Note Italy: No World Cup, But New Elections Likely Wednesday, 30 May 2018 What Happened? The Italian political situation has deteriorated after Italy’s President Sergio Mattarella prevented the populist alliance of the Five Star Movement and the League from forming an obscure, anti-European government. Instead, he asked interim Prime Minister Carlo Cottarelli, a former International Suan Teck Kin, CFA Monetary Fund (IMF) official, to form an interim government of technocrats. Head of Research [email protected] The country has been trying to form a new government since the 4 March 2018 elections (“Italy: On Lee Sue Ann Course For A Hung Parliament” dated 5 March 2018) despite several rounds of coalition talks. But Economist [email protected] the latest crisis erupted in late May, following the choice of the economic/finance minister. Luigi Di Maio and Matteo Salvini, leaders of Five Star and League respectively were proposing Professor Paolo Savona, who has been critical of the euro and the single currency in the past. So, What Now? In line with the constitution, after the government is formed, it has to go before the parliament for a confidence vote. PM Cottarelli on this point has been quite clear: If his government wins the confidence vote: He will remain in office until early next year. His government will work essentially on the approval of a new budget for 2019, defusing the VAT increase, that otherwise will take place in January 2019. If his government loses the confidence vote: The country will go to polls in early September in order to provide enough time for a new government to be formed and then approve the budget before year-end. To provide credibility to the temporary nature of his government, Mr Cottarelli said that neither him nor his ministers will participate and be candidates in the next general elections. What Makes This A Crisis? The latest deadlock could Populist Parties In Italian Parliament force President Mattarella Total 630 Seats back to parliament in the Source: Corte di Cassazione coming days and send Italians back to the polls as early as 29 July (but likely from September). Unlike the first inconclusive vote held earlier this year on 4 March, it remains unclear what platform populists will run on in the new elections. As such, the outcome of new elections is perceived as more risky due to the possibility that the next vote could turn into a proxy referendum between pro-Europe/pro-euro mainstream forces, and the antagonist alliance of the two populist parties that won the most votes in March – the Five Star Movement and the League. Italy: No World Cup, But New Elections Likely Wednesday, 30 May 2018 1 I Page Who Might Win The Next General Elections? Prior to the eruption of the current crisis, as per the opinion polls, the League (Lega Nord) is experiencing good momentum and it Italy Opinion Polls For Next General Elections is credited with around 22-24% of the vote (+5-7 ppt since March Source: Macrobond, UOB Global Economics & Markets Research general elections) whilst Five Star is has been broadly stable at around 32% since the March vote. The dynamics have changed since, though, with Five Star now losing ground, whilst the popularity of the League has been constantly increasing since the vote. Italy: Too Big To Fail, Too Big To Bail? Indeed, the European Union (EU) and global markets are watching nervously. In an echo of the Greek debt crisis, the latest turmoil has reopened a political rift between Germany and the “peripheral” economies of Greece, Italy and Spain. That political divide will further complicate ongoing efforts to resolve Italy’s debt burden. This point is important as Italy has the 4th largest debt balance in the world, despite the size of the economy being the 9th largest (smaller than Brazil at 8th and France at 7th). Italy’s debt-to-GDP ratio of 132% is the largest among the Eurozone economies and has worsened significantly since the Eurozone debt crisis in 2011/12 despite a range of austerity measures since that time. Indeed, to the Italians, bread-and-butter issues of economic situation and jobs remain the top priorities, as reflected consistently in the opinion polls. Concerns that spark worries about the European project’s future, such as the Greece crisis in 2010-2015 (and to a lesser extent, Brexit in July 2016), would certainly cause downward pressure on European asset prices. It has taken tremendous efforts by the core European countries, the European Central Bank (ECB) and multilateral agencies such as the IMF to keep the Greek crisis under control. In Italy’s case, however, the situation is far more acute and protracted compared to Greece, given the relatively large size of the economy (3rd largest in the Eurozone) and the amount of debt. Could Italy be a case of “too big to fail” and “too big to bail”? The Eurozone’s Third-Largest Economy Has Been Anemic For Years Italy’s PMI Underperforms Source: Macrobond, UOB Global Economics & Markets Research Source: Macrobond, UOB Global Economics & Markets Research Italy: No World Cup, But New Elections Likely Wednesday, 30 May 2018 2 I Page Unemployment Remains High Debt Levels In Italy Continue To Rise Source: Macrobond, UOB Global Economics & Markets Research Source: Macrobond, UOB Global Economics & Markets Research Despite Austerity Measures, Italy’s Debt-To-GDP Ratio Remains Close Italian Bank Lending Has Been Sluggish Over The Past Year To 130% - Highest In The Eurozone Source: Macrobond, UOB Global Economics & Markets Research Source: Macrobond, UOB Global Economics & Markets Research 32% of Italian Govt Bonds Are Still Held By Foreign Investors The 3 Most Important Issues Facing Italy, According To The Electorate Source: Macrobond, UOB Global Economics & Markets Research Source: Macrobond, UOB Global Economics & Markets Research Italy: No World Cup, But New Elections Likely Wednesday, 30 May 2018 3 I Page Recent Publications Vietnam: The Next Growth Story In Asia?, 28 May 2018 FX Strategy: Internationalization Of The Renminbi In 8 Charts, 28 May 2018 Singapore: What Some Indicators Are Telling Us About Production?, 25 May 2018 “一带一路”系列：提升东盟连通性, 25 May 2018 South Korea: BOK Stands Pat As Expected, 24 May 2018 Singapore: Robust 1Q GDP Growth, But Losing Momentum, 24 May 2018 US May FOMC Minutes: Confirms June Hike & Fed’s Inflation Tolerance, 24 May 2018 Singapore: April Inflation Continued To Ease, But MAS Warns About Higher Oil Prices, 23 May 2018 Malaysia: Inflation On The Back Burner, 23 May 2018 The Belt And Road Series: Connectivity Boost For ASEAN, 22 May 2018 Scan the QR Code for a list of all our reports Disclaimer This publication is strictly for informational purposes only and shall not be transmitted, disclosed, copied or relied upon by any person for whatever purpose, and is also not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country where such distribution or use would be contrary to its laws or regulations. This publication is not an offer, recommendation, solicitation or advice to buy or sell any investment product/securities/instruments. Nothing in this publication constitutes accounting, legal, regulatory, tax, financial or other advice. Please consult your own professional advisors about the suitability of any investment product/securities/ instruments for your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. The information contained in this publication is based on certain assumptions and analysis of publicly available information and reflects prevailing conditions as of the date of the publication. Any opinions, projections and other forward-looking statements regarding future events or performance of, including but not limited to, countries, markets or companies are not necessarily indicative of, and may differ from actual events or results. The views expressed within this publication are solely those of the author’s and are independent of the actual trading positions of United Overseas Bank Limited, its subsidiaries, affiliates, directors, officers and employees (“UOB Group”). Views expressed reflect the author’s judgment as at the date of this publication and are subject to change. UOB Group may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in the securities/instruments mentioned in the publication. UOB Group may have also issued other reports, publications or documents expressing views which are different from those stated in this publication. Although every reasonable care has been taken to ensure the accuracy, completeness and objectivity of the information contained in this publication, UOB Group makes no representation or warranty, whether express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness and objectivity and accept no responsibility or liability relating to any losses or damages howsoever suffered by any person arising from any reliance on the views expressed or information in this publication. Italy: No World Cup, But New Elections Likely Wednesday, 30 May 2018 4 I Page.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Prof. Andrea Boitani Born in Rome on 7Th November 1955 Email: [email protected]
    Prof. Andrea Boitani born in Rome on 7th November 1955 email: [email protected] Academic Work Andrea Boitani is a Professor of Economics at the Catholic University of Milan, Faculty of Banking, Finance and Insurance Sciences. He attended the Liceo Torquato Tasso in Rome (final grade 60/60), and subsequently graduated with full marks from “La Sapienza” University of Rome, under the supervision of Federico Caffè. He earned a Master of Philosophy with Honours from the University of Cambridge (UK). He was awarded the “Stringher – Mortara” Scholarship by Banca d’Italia (1980), the “Luciano Iona” Scholarship by Istituto Bancario San Paolo in Turin (1982), and the “Ente Einaudi” Scholarship by Banca d’Italia (1984). He was a Researcher at the Catholic University of Milan (1985-92), and subsequently an Associate Professor at Perugia University (1992-95) and at “La Sapienza” University of Rome (1995-97), and held teaching positions at the University of Bergamo, the Polytechnic University of Milan (Master), Scuola Superiore dell’Economia e della Finanza (Advanced School for Economics and Finance). He is co-director of the Master in management of local public transport companies at “La Sapienza” University of Rome, a member of the Master in Regulatory Economics Scientific Committee at “Tor Vergata” University of Rome, and he was a member of the Management Committee of the Graduate School in the Economics and Finance of Public Administration, Catholic University of Milan, from 2005 to 2012. He currently teaches Economics II (undergraduate), Economia Monetaria and Monetary Economics (graduate). He is a member of the Scientific Committee of the Observatory on Public Accounts (directed by Carlo Cottarelli) at the Catholic University of Milan, and a member of the Monetary Observatory Scientific Committee at the Organisation for the development of Bank and Equity Market Studies.
    [Show full text]
  • Italian Populists Launch Bid to Resurrect Government Coalition It Would Be an Olive Branch to President Sergio Mattarella
    Friday 11 International Friday, June 1, 2018 Italian populists launch bid to resurrect government coalition It would be an olive branch to President Sergio Mattarella ROME: Italy’s populist parties launched a last- mist Carlo Cottarelli to form a caretaker gov- ditch bid yesterday to resurrect a coalition gov- ernment, but now says he is assessing Di Maio’s ernment that collapsed as the president vetoed offer of a compromise with “great interest”. The their controversial pick for economy minister. League has been beating the drum for new Luigi Di Maio, head of the anti-establishment elections, but its leader Matteo Salvini said Five Star Movement, said Wednesday he was Wednesday he had “never closed the door” on prepared to offer a compromise candidate in hammering out a government. Salvini, 45, and the place of economist Paolo Savona, who has the 31-year-old Di Maio were to meet later called for Italy to drop the euro. Thursday in Rome. It would be an olive branch to President Ser- Cottarelli meanwhile has a caretaker team gio Mattarella, who at the weekend ruled out ready to step in should the Five Star-League approving the coalition’s cabinet lineup if it in- negotiations fail-but the lineup is doomed to cluded Savona-prompting Di Maio to demand lose a confidence vote in the populist-domi- the president’s impeachment. Nearly three nated parliament, meaning that elections would months of political turmoil following an incon- likely be held after August. The timing of polls clusive election in the eurozone’s third biggest is already the subject of heated debate, with the economy have rattled financial markets, al- centre-left Democratic Party saying they should though they rebounded slightly on Wednesday be held in July while the League says they and Thursday.
    [Show full text]
  • Government of Change’
    Policy Polarisation in Italy: The Short and Conflictual Life of the ‘Government of Change’ (2018-2019) ACCEPTED FOR PUBLICATION IN SOUTH EUROPEAN SOCIETY AND POLITICS Nicolò Conti, Unitelma Sapienza University of Rome, [email protected] Andrea Pedrazzani, Department of Social and Political Science, University of Milan, [email protected] (corresponding author) Federico Russo, Department of History, Society and Human Studies of the University of Salento, [email protected] Abstract This paper uses the concept of policy polarisation to understand the short and conflictual life of the Conte I cabinet which remained in office in Italy from June 2018 to September 2019. We show how policy polarisation in parliament and between coalition parties shaped the formation and termination of the so-called ‘government of change’. When investigating the implementation of the government agenda, we also assess the role of the coalition contract as an (ineffective) institutional solution to problems stemming from policy divisions between the Five Star Movement and the Lega. We argue that, despite some policy accomplishments of the government, the Five Star Movement-Lega coalition appears more as a temporary experiment, whose legacy may not represent a new course of action. Keywords: Government coalition, Government agenda, Populism, Coalition agreement, Party manifestos, Parliamentary questions, Five Star Movement, Lega 1 Policy polarisation is a crucial factor influencing the entire life cycle of governments in contemporary democracies. It is not only a key aspect of party competition during the electoral campaign (Downs 1957; Sartori 1976). As the comparative literature has pointed out, polarisation which sets the two sides of the party system at polar opposites can also increase the complexity of the bargaining environment after the elections, thus delaying the formation of governments and affecting the type of cabinets eventually formed.
    [Show full text]
  • How Worried Should We Be About an Italian Debt Crisis? Di Olivier Blanchard, Silvia Merler E Jeromin Zettelmeyer
    PIIE.COM – 24 MAGGIO 2018 How Worried Should We Be about an Italian Debt Crisis? di Olivier Blanchard, Silvia Merler e Jeromin Zettelmeyer Earlier PIIE research examined whether rising interest rates might unleash a debt crisis in Italy. The answer was "no," under two conditions: First, that rising interest rates reflected economic recovery; and second, that the Italian government would be prepared to cooperate with European authorities—the European Union, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and the European Central Bank (ECB)—to manage a loss of market confidence. Ten months later, these conditions no longer hold. Political backlash to slow growth and immigration has produced the least cooperative government imaginable, a coalition between the left-populist Five Star Movement (M5S) and the right-populist Lega. And borrowing costs have started to rise in reaction. Does this mean that a crisis is imminent? If so, how bad would it be? HOW BAD WOULD A DEBT CRISIS BE? The second question is easier to answer than the first. A crisis could be horrific, for two reasons. First, none of the powerful stabilization instruments that the euro area has developed over the years could be deployed to rescue Italy. Following crisis-related downgrades, Italy would no longer be eligible for the ECB’s quantitative easing bond-purchasing program. The ECB would stop accepting Italian bonds as collateral. Access to emergency support programs—the ESM, and through it, the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) program— would be conditional on fiscal adjustment, the opposite of what Italy's new government has promised. Unless the government were to change course, it would be forced to exit the euro, even if this is not its current plan.
    [Show full text]
  • LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Italy's Crisis and the Question of Democracy
    LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Italy’s crisis and the question of democracy Page 1 of 5 Italy’s crisis and the question of democracy The last seven days in Italy have proven that a week is indeed a long time in politics: after a political crisis emerged following Italian president Sergio Mattarella’s decision to veto the Five Star Movement and the League’s choice of finance minister, a government led by Giuseppe Conte was eventually sworn in on 1 June. Andrea Lorenzo Capussela argues that Mattarella’s veto was wise because the risk of Italy leaving the euro would have risen more than negligibly, but while the new government might restore some stability, it is unlikely to tackle the real roots of the crisis, namely low growth, rising inequality, and political distrust. Luigi Di Maio, Sergio Mattarella and Giuseppe Conte on 1 June 2018, Credit: Presidenza della Repubblica (Public Domain) The crisis exploded on the highest of Rome’s hills, between the evening of Sunday 28 May and the following afternoon. The trigger was a sequence of three discrete choices. First, the president of the republic refused to appoint as finance minister the person chosen by the two political parties that prepared to take office, the League and the Five Star Movement (M5S). Second, the latter reacted by refusing to form a government. Third, the president granted to a technocrat the mandate to form a non-partisan, transition government and prepare for early elections, no later than early 2019. That day the interest-rate spread between Italian and German bonds recorded its largest single-day rise since the euro was created.
    [Show full text]
  • Public Hearing on Improving the Economic Governance and Stability Framework of the Union, in Particular in the Euro Zone
    Public Hearing on Improving the economic governance and stability framework of the Union, in particular in the euro zone Brussels, Room PHS 3C50 Tuesday, 15 September 2010 15:00 - 18:30 Curriculum vitae of speakers Lorenzo BINI SMAGHI Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank Education 1974 Baccalauréat, Lycée Français de Bruxelles 1978 Licence en Sciences Economiques, Université Catholique de Louvain 1980 MA in Economics, University of Southern California 1988 PhD in Economics, University of Chicago Professional career 1982 Summer Internship, Central Banking Department, International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C. 1983 - 1988 Economist, International Section, Research Department, Banca d’Italia 1988 - 1994 Head of Exchange Rate and International Trade Division, Research Department, Banca d’Italia 1994 - 1998 Head of Policy Division, European Monetary Institute, Frankfurt 1998 Deputy Director General for Research, European Central Bank, Frankfurt 1998 - 05/2005 Director General for International Financial Relations, Italian Ministry of the Economy and Finance Since June 2005 Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank Selected publications (non-exhaustive list) . L’Euro, Il Mulino, Bologna, 1998 (Third Edition: 2001) . Open Issues in European Central Banking, Macmillan, London, 2000 (with D. Gros) . Chi Ci Salva dalla Prossima Crisi Finanziaria?, Il Mulino, Bologna, 2000 . Il paradosso dell'euro, Rizzoli, Milano, 2008 . "Revisiting the European Monetary System Experience: Were Some Members More Equal than Others?" in Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 35, no. 2, 2006, pp. 151-171 (with Giovanni Ferri) . "Global Imbalances and Monetary Policy" in Journal of Policy Modeling, 29, 2007, pp. 711-727 . "Independence and Accountability in Supervision: General Principles and European Setting" in Designing Financial Supervision Institutions, edited by Donato Masciandaro and Marc Quintyn, Elgar, 2007, pp.
    [Show full text]
  • The Reform of the ESM and Why It Is So Controversial in Italy
    Luiss School of European Political Economy The reform of the ESM and why it is so controversial in Italy Giampaolo Galli Working Paper 3/2020 April 8, 2020 © G. Galli Luiss SEP Working Paper 3/2020 April 8, 2020 The reform of the ESM and why it is so controversial in Italy Giampaolo Galli* Key points • The draft reform of the European Stability Mechanism (henceforth ESM) was not approved as scheduled at the Euro Summit in December 2019, nor in subsequent meetings, because the Italian Prime Minister was obliged to ask for a delay in the face of strong domestic opposition to the reform from populist parties. With the outbreak of the Covid19 epidemic in February the issue has fallen out of the European agenda, at least for the time being. • The arguments used by the populists against the reform were deeply flawed. • The proposed changes in the text of the EMS Treaty were relatively minor and did not contain any mechanism of automatic restructuring of the debt of countries asking for financial assistance from the ESM. • However, the small changes in the text reflected the idea that Italy would soon be obliged to restructure its debt. The only possible answer by the Italian authorities was to design a plan for the gradual reduction of the debt to GDP ratio. This will still be the case, with greater difficulties, after the end of the epidemic. • Restructuring the debt may be a painful necessity, but it is not a way to solve the problem of a heavily indebted country in which most of the debt is held by residents.
    [Show full text]
  • Italy Towards New Elections Final
    28 May 2018 Italy towards new elections INVESTMENTTALKS ° Political uncertainty: On May 27th, the designated Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte gave up his mandate to form a Government. The Italian President acted promptly and gave Prof Carlo Cottarelli, an economist, former IMF representative and responsible for the spending review of Enrico Letta’s Government, the mandate to form an interim government with clear commitments. Yet, this government is unlikely to win a confidence vote in Parliament, given the opposition of 5 Star Movement and League; it will probably therefore be a “caretaker government”, in charge of governing till the next elections, which will take place probably in Diego Franzin Autumn or at beginning of 2019 at latest. Head of Equities ° Fixed Income: Investors will continue to ask for a significant uncertainty premium. In the meantime, a short position on Italy is quite costly and this should prevent any strong spread widening. Due to the high uncertainty, we also expect limited spread reduction until the next election. Until the completion of a full budgetary and political integration in the Euro Zone, political risk will remain in investors’ minds. The actions taken by the ECB since 2010-2012 have removed tail risk and the market still believes in the ECB’s ability to manage the situation; otherwise the Euro equity market would not be that resilient. ° Equities: Despite relative cheapness, the Italian market is underperforming due to political uncertainty, as more than 30% of the main Italian index is represented by financials that are Annalisa domestic players. Italian banks are now stronger than in the past in terms of capital and are USARDI, CFA in a positive restructuring trend for both cost cutting and reduction in Non-Performing Loans.
    [Show full text]
  • CROSSROADS at the Intersection of Geopolitics and Geoeconomics May 31, 2018 | Volume 1, Issue 5 | Andy Quirk
    CROSSROADS At the Intersection of Geopolitics and Geoeconomics May 31, 2018 | Volume 1, Issue 5 | Andy Quirk Here are some critical issues to watch around the globe over the coming month: Highlights: European markets are shaken by political uncertainty in Italy and Spain, increasing fears over the future of the Eurozone and possibly the EU. The Turkish Central Bank simplifies its rates system in a move to spur investor confidence, however caution over the political environment in Turkey is still necessary. Trade tensions remain high between the US and China as the tit-for-tat trade war continues, while progress towards a US-North Korea peace summit continues, despite Trump’s “cancellation” last week. The Brazilian trucker strike continues to escalate, affecting soybean exports. Europe: markets shaken by political Elections in Iraq illustrate desire for less instability in Italy in Spain Iranian influence After elections in March that resulted in no clear Shia leader Muqtada al-Sadr and the Sairoon winner, Italy’s Five Star Movement and the coalition – a coalition of several leftist Iraqi Lega Norde party attempted to form a populist parties – have been confirmed as the winner of Eurosceptic coalition government but abandoned Iraq’s recent parliamentary elections. Al-Sadr’s these efforts after Italian President Sergio coalition has been outspoken in its criticism of Mattarella vetoed their choice for finance any foreign interference in Iraq. Some observers minister. As a result, the proposed prime interpret Al-Sadr’s platform as an effort to minister, Giuseppe Conte withdrew his bid for “exclude Iranian interests from policy the premiership.
    [Show full text]
  • Are Central Government Rules Okay? Assessing the Hidden Costs of Centralised Discipline for Municipal Borrowing
    sustainability Article Are Central Government Rules Okay? Assessing the Hidden Costs of Centralised Discipline for Municipal Borrowing Davide Eltrudis * and Patrizio Monfardini Department of Economics and Business Sciences, University of Cagliari, 09123 Cagliari, Italy; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Received: 31 October 2020; Accepted: 24 November 2020; Published: 27 November 2020 Abstract: In the EU, the specialty municipal banks have been the traditional funding source besides tax sharing and governmental transfers for Local Governments (LGs). With the decentralization process, LGs experienced different market-based options so that banks were no longer the only source of funding. However, with the onset of the Eurozone crisis, public sector debt is no more risk-free, and the cost of borrowing became unstable over time. To minimise such risks, Central Governments forced LGs to adopt general principles of control of local borrowing. Previous studies evidenced that centralised controls affect unitary countries more than federations. This paper investigates the Centralised Discipline and Control Model to understand whether it generates hidden costs. For such a purpose, the paper compares municipal bonds against borrowing from banks in Italy, a European unitary country. This paper highlights the existence of hidden costs for Italian LGs because the Central Government set up an expensive system for controlling the entire public sector debt. Policy makers should pay particular attention to which model of control to adopt by considering their country’s specific characteristics and the potential impacts of the different models on them, according to the present economic circumstances. Keywords: Central and Local Governments; governance of municipal borrowing; municipal bonds; borrowing from banks; cost of debt 1.
    [Show full text]
  • Euro Area Fiscal Policies and Capacity in Post Pandemic Times
    IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS Requested by the ECON committee Euro Area fiscal policies and capacity in post-pandemic times External author: Carlo COTTARELLI Economic Governance Support Unit (EGOV) Directorate-General for Internal Policies EN PE 659.658 - June 2021 IPOL | Economic Governance Support Unit 2 PE 659.658 Euro Area fiscal policies and capacity in post-pandemic times Euro Area fiscal policies and capacity in post-pandemic times Abstract The economic policy response to the Covid crisis avoided a euro area financial crisis. Looking ahead, in the short run, the key issue is the pace of withdrawal of fiscal stimulus. The right approach seems to follow a state-contingent strategy, guided by unemployment, inflation and output gap data. Over the medium term, the reforms supported by the NGEU remain critical. To succeed, adequate country ownership, rather than the pure conditionality mechanisms, is necessary. Reducing public debt ratios over the medium term at a sufficient speed will require that the growth of primary spending remain below the (higher) potential growth rate, to be achieved through the reform process. Over the longer term, the priorities are the creation of a central fiscal capacity, the strengthening in the enforcement of fiscal rules in good times and the completion of banking and capital market unions. This paper was prepared by the Economic Governance Support Unit (EGOV) at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON). PE 659.658 3 IPOL | Economic Governance Support Unit This document was provided by the Economic Governance Support Unit upon a request by the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.
    [Show full text]
  • Annales De La Faculté De Droit D'istanbul
    Annales de la Faculté de Droit d’Istanbul, 68: 113–137 DOI: 10.26650/annales.2019.68.0007 http://dergipark.gov.tr/iuafdi Submitted: 07.11.2019 Revision Requested: 25.12.2019 Annales de la Faculté de Droit d’Istanbul Last Revision Received: 07.01.2020 Accepted: 07.01.2020 RESEARCH ARTICLE / ARAŞTIRMA MAKALESI The ‘Executive of Change’ and the 2019 Crisis as a Touchstone for the Italian Parliamentary Form of Government Valentina Rita Scotti1 Abstract The government crisis which began on 20 August in Italy has put an end to the innovative experience of the ‘Executive of Change,’ which has challenged the traditional constitutional conventions regarding the relationship between state powers, as well as the fundamental values on which the Italian Republican Constitution grounds the legal system. The article analyses the reasons for the crisis and, moreover, the impact it has had on the role and prerogatives of the President of the Republic, the Prime Minster and the Parliament, contextualizing it in the general framework of the evolution of the Italian parliamentary form of government. Keywords Parliamentary form of government, Government crisis, Constitutional interpretation, Constitutional conventions, Fundamental constitutional values 1 Corresponding Author: Valentina Rita Scotti (Post-doctoral Research Fellow), Koç University, School of Law, Comparative Public Law, Istanbul, Turkey. Email: [email protected] ORCID: 0000-0002-2733-476X To cite this article: Scotti VR, “The Executive of Change’ and the 2019 Crisis as a Touchstone for the Italian Parliamentary Form of Government” (2019) 68 Annales de la Faculté de Droit d’Istanbul 113. https://doi.org/10.26650/annales.2019.68.0007 ©The Authors.
    [Show full text]