Equity Research 9 January 2017 European Banks INDUSTRY UPDATE IFRS9 – Bigger than Basel IV European Banks From January 2018, IFRS9 will change how banks recognize loan losses. So far, NEUTRAL Unchanged market focus has been on the transitional CET1 impacts. But these look quite small – c50bps off CET1 ratios. Instead, we think the ‘real’ story is pro-cyclicality. A typical downturn could see IFRS9 knock c300bps off the sector’s CET1 ratio – vs c100bps European Banks Mike Harrison under the current framework. It is not too late for the rules to be changed. But +44 (0)20 3134 3056 without a recession, it may take the 2018 stress tests to fully highlight the problem.
[email protected] For as long as the risk of policy error remains, the more capital generative banks are Barclays, UK best insulated – we’d highlight SocGen, CS and ABN in particular. Jeremy Sigee Earnings and capital volatility: Under IFRS9, banks will front load loan losses at the +44 (0)20 3134 3363 start of a downturn, rather than spreading the cost over several periods. So banks can’t
[email protected] ‘earn their way through’, and may even overestimate losses in the depths of a recession. Barclays, UK Reducing earnings cushions leaves capital bases more exposed. How much more capital? CET1 ratios already come under pressure in a downturn from RWA inflation. The ‘typical’ additional CET1 erosion from IFRS9 is c300bp, although bank-by-bank sensitivities clearly depend on the specific nature of any downturn. Some of this may be offset by reducing CET1 targets – but the headroom here is limited.