Radar Detection of Tornadogenesis Kristofer S

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Radar Detection of Tornadogenesis Kristofer S Meteorology Senior Theses Undergraduate Theses and Capstone Projects 12-2016 Radar Detection of Tornadogenesis Kristofer S. Tuftedal Iowa State University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/mteor_stheses Part of the Meteorology Commons Recommended Citation Tuftedal, Kristofer S., "Radar Detection of Tornadogenesis" (2016). Meteorology Senior Theses. 2. https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/mteor_stheses/2 This Dissertation/Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Undergraduate Theses and Capstone Projects at Iowa State University Digital Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Meteorology Senior Theses by an authorized administrator of Iowa State University Digital Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Radar Detection of Tornadogenesis Kristofer S. Tuftedal Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa Dr. James V. Aanstoos Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa ABSTRACT This research compared the basic and polarimetric radar products of non-tornadic and pre-tornadic supercells with the intent of finding a signature which appears to be indicative of tornadogenesis or a lack thereof. Reflectivity (ZHH), spectrum width (σv), differential reflectivity (ZDR), correlation coefficient (ρhv), and specific differential phase (KDP) were all visually analyzed using GR2Analyst and compared to existing schematics in an attempt to find a signature. Once an apparent signature was found, pooled t-tests were performed on the data to see if the mean value of the pre-tornadic supercell, where the signature was found, had a statistically significant difference with the mean value of the non-tornadic supercell in the same area. Overall, it was found that the discovered signature was statistically significant on the 95% confidence level. However, due to the small number of cases tested, a relationship between the signature and tornadogenesis cannot be proven, but can be suggested. ______________________________________________________________________________ 1. Introduction and Background warning due to their mistrust from previous warnings that did not produce a tornado. Finding ways to more accurately forecast tornadogenesis has been a long-standing Certain radar signatures have been found issue for National Weather Service (NWS) to be suggestive or indicative of tornadic meteorologists. Issuing tornado warnings for activity, such as the tornado vortex signatures supercells that do not produce tornadoes (TVS) and the tornado debris signatures leads to the public believing that most (TDS) (Stelten and Wolf 2014). These tornado warnings are only false alarms, signatures are either limited to moments prior resulting in a sort of “crying wolf” effect. to tornadogenesis like a TVS, or while a These false alarms not only harm the public’s tornado is ongoing like a TDS. While these perception of the NWS, but could also signatures are highly useful in their own potentially lead to serious injury to or even respects, such as determining whether a death of an individual that ignores a tornado supercell has enough vertical vorticity to produce a tornado or showing that a tornado 1 is ongoing and is lofting debris without on, but offer interesting hints at the having to rely on trained spotters, the public, possibility of radar signatures that are or law enforcement to confirm this, these indicative of tornadogenesis. signatures do little to aid a meteorologist in Another paper, Cai (2005), compared the determining whether a supercell will become mesocyclones for both tornadic and non- tornadic in advance of tornadogenesis. tornadic supercells in attempt to show that it Dual-polarization (Polarimetric) radar is a was possible to determine the difference relatively new tool in the world of Doppler between the two types of supercells using radar. Even though the first research pseudovorticity calculations. Pseudovorticity polarimetric radar was installed in 1983 and is defined in the paper as being the difference the first collection of polarimetric variables between the maximum outbound velocity and became available in 1992; the upgrade of the maximum inbound velocity in the velocity Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler couplet divided by the distance between the (WSR-88D) radars ran by NWS was not two maximum values. completed until 2013. Hence, we are only 휁 = Δ푉⁄퐿 (1) beginning to understand the operational pv potential that polarimetric products have to The prefix “pseudo” is used because equation offer. (1) does not look at full vorticity and only Some early research into detecting measures vorticity along the radial of the tornadoes with polarimetric products was radar beam. The study suggests that there will done in Ryzhkov et al. (2005). That study be notable differences between the slopes of the pseudovorticity lines, with the tornadic looked at different radar products, both polarimetric and not. The study looked at cases having a steeper slope than the non- tornadic cases. Even if pseudovorticity reflectivity factor (ZHH), radial velocity, calculations are not used in the same way that differential reflectivity (ZDR), specific it was used here, it can still be a useful differential phase (KDP), and correlation diagnostic tool to determine the rotational coefficient (ρhv) in order to determine the strength of a velocity couplet. usefulness of these products in tornado detection. That research, while showing that As research into polarimetric variables polarimetric data was definitely capable of continued, Van Den Broeke et al. (2008) detecting ongoing tornadoes and would help looked at these radar products at different forecasters with issuing tornado warnings, times during a given tornado’s life cycle. also found polarimetric signatures aloft and That study defined certain high, medium, and near the supercells in the study. These low thresholds for reflectivity factor (ZHH), signatures were deemed as out of the ordinary differential reflectivity (ZDR), specific and that they could be related with the differential phase (KDP), and correlation tornadogenesis processes. The signatures coefficient (ρhv). With these defined referred as out of the ordinary in that study thresholds, several tornadic supercells were were not explicitly mentioned or elaborated analyzed visually during distinct times in the 2 tornado’s life cycle. One rather interesting While the radar measurements in the finding from that paper, with respect to previous two studies were taken from mobile tornadogenesis, is the presence of medium X-band radars, these findings could prove values of KDP on the back side of the very important in detecting tornadogenesis supercells that was only present in times prior from WSR-88Ds. Considering that WSR- to tornadogenesis. Considering that the study 88Ds have a coarser temporal resolution only looked at tornadic supercells, looking when compared to the RaXPol radars, some for this same signature in non-tornadic of these features may happen too quickly to supercells could tell if this signature is be resolved by the WSR-88D radars. indicative of tornadogenesis. However, other features should still be able to be resolved, especially with the Two case studies (Houser et al. (2015) and implementation of Automated Volume Scan Klees et al. (2016)) have also provided some Evaluation and Termination (AVSET), insight into the life cycle of a tornadic Supplemental Adaptive Intra-Volume Low- supercell as well the differences between Level Scans (SAILS), and Multiple Elevation tornadic and non-tornadic supercells. Houser Scan Option with SAILS (MESO-SAILS). et al. (2015) found, using a mobile, rapid- scanning X-band, polarimetric Doppler radar The intention of this research is to attempt (RaXPol), that storm scale processes, such as to find a signature which appears in advance intensification and dissipation of velocity of tornadogenesis and does not appear in the happened quite rapidly, in about 30s, but non-tornadic cases; or find a signature which storm-scale processes that lead to appears in the non-tornadic cases, but does tornadogenesis happened on the order of not appear in the pre-tornadic cases. This approximately 2 minutes. Another finding research, then intends to determine the from that paper which could be particularly significance of any present signatures that fit interesting is that tornadogenesis did not these criteria and speculate on potential occur until after the strengthening of rotation causes for these signatures. between 3 and 3.5 km above ground. While 2. Data and Methods that study did not look at non-tornadic supercells, this signature would be one that a. Data Selection could be looked for when doing the An initial set of days to search for comparison as it might potentially be a potential pre-tornadic and non-tornadic signature that is only visible in tornadic supercells were selected based on the Storm storms. In the second case study, Klees et al. Prediction Center (SPC) event archive. Days (2016), it was found that non-tornadic with reported tornadoes in the region of supercells had strong rotation in the mid- interest (Fig. 1) were selected from May 2013 levels, but weak low-level rotation, whereas to May 2016. Forty days were selected to the tornadic supercells had significant search for potential cases. Following the rotation both in the mid-levels and lower selection of these potential case days, Next levels. 3 FIG.
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