Selvaag Bolig Is a Housing Development Company Which Focuses on the Growth Areas in and Around Greater Oslo, Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Stockholm
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Company presentation November 2019 Rolf Thorsen, CEO Sverre Molvik, CFO Selvaag Bolig is a housing development company which focuses on the growth areas in and around Greater Oslo, Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Stockholm 2 Long-term housing development ▪ Nearly 60 000 homes over the last 70 years ▪ Urban development, large projects in growing regions ▪ Housing for all, competitive housing offering 3 Norway’s leading homebuilder ▪ 1 510 units worth NOK 7 192 million under construction 72 per cent sold by Q3 19 ▪ 159 units sold in Q3 19 Trondheim 369 units ▪ Dividend twice a year ▪ Q3 19 adjusted IFRS EBITDA margin Bergen 516 units Greater-Oslo of 31.3 per cent 9 967 units Stavanger Stockholm ▪ Only projects with more than 150 969 units 40 units units ▪ Focus on fast growing urban regions Note: The numbers represent the size of the land portfolio as at 30 September 2019. All numbers are adjusted for Selvaag Bolig’s share in joint ventures. 1) Greater Oslo area: Oslo, Akershus, Buskerud, Vestfold and Østfold, 2) The residential property development portfolio consists of land plots that are to be paid for when planning permission is received. The portfolio has a development potential of ~5 400 residential units, whereof the company has purchasing obligations for ~4 900 and purchasing options for ~500 units. 4 Selvaag Bolig is a story about development The Ekeberg The Gullhaug Modular Listed at Oslo House House construction Stock Exchange Terraced Pluss: Housing buildings with extra services Housing for all 1948 1951 1958 1988 1999 2000 2003 2011 2012 2015 2017 FUTURE Defined housing concepts Industrial Veitvet Sold homes for production area NOK 3.2 billion Løren area 50 000 homes completed 5 Norwegian housing market ▪ Low risk for housebuilders ▪ Advance sales: banks require that 50-70% of homes are sold before construction starts ▪ Binding offers: offer to purchase is a binding sales contract, and requires a minimum 10% cash deposit ▪ High level of home ownership ▪ 85% (one of the world’s highest) ▪ Economic benefits for home owners ▪ 23% of mortgage loan interest payments are tax deductible ▪ Transfer stamp duty for new houses is lower than for second-hand homes ▪ Strong population growth ▪ Norway’s urban areas are among the fastest growing in Europe ▪ Good demand for new homes Sources: Selvaag Bolig and Eurostat 6 Our deliveries since the IPO What did we say at 2012 IPO? Status Q3 2019 Maintain position as a leading residential developer in Norway Leading in terms of volume, profit and efficiency Long-term goal of delivering 1 500 homes per year Lower volume, but higher margins Long-term growth will not affect profitability or financial risk Healthy profits and sound balance sheet Continue to develop industrial approach to homebuilding Project optimisation and large projects Increase share of modular-based development Urban-development focus requires on-site construction Project margins of 12% 28% on average over last 3 years 62% on average since 2013 (start of dividend payments) Annual dividends in the region of 50% of after-tax profits Started dividend payments one year early Dividend pay-out semi-annually from H1 2015 Dividend payments semi-annually from H1 2015 New and more flexible dividend policy 7 Efficient and flexible value chain 6 – 36 MONTHS 6 – 12 MONTHS 3 – 9 MONTHS 12 – 24 MONTHS 0 MONTHS Acquire and refine Contracting, marketing Project design Construction and sales Delivery to customers land for development and pre-sales ZONING SALES START CONSTRUCTION START DELIVERIES ▪ Buy (i) options on unzoned land ▪ Plan and prepare ▪ 60% pre-sale before start-up ▪ Fixed-price contracts with ▪ Target 100% sale at delivery or (ii) ready-to-build land for construction reputable counterpart ▪ Lever acquired land ▪ Prices on remaining 40% to improve ROE increased gradually during sell-out phase ▪ Construction costs financed with construction loans 8 Low-risk business model Risk profile at start of a MNOK 550 project De-risking in key stages of projects 1 ▪ Purchase and payment of land takes place after Land purchase zoning plan approval. If this is not obtained, the conditional on purchase is cancelled zoning approval ▪ SBO is in charge of the zoning process 60% 76% 14% 10% 100% 2 ▪ Purchase price is decided by a land appraisal = = = = = Land purchase price based on made by three external consultants at the time MNOK MNOK MNOK MNOK MNOK of zoning approval 330 418 77 55 550 market value at time of zoning ▪ The median valuation is used as purchase price approval Minimum pre- Remaining Project margin Equity Sales price ▪ Pre-sales of minimum 60% secures the majority sale project cost investment 3 of revenue before construction Minimum sales rate of 60% before ▪ 10% of purchase price paid by the buyer at point construction of sale, and proof of financing for the remaining ▪ Selvaag’s equity investment in a project and project margin bring amount is required the remaining project cost down to 74%-78% ▪ With minimum 60% pre-sale there is limited remaining project risk. 4 For the the remaining 40% a price reduction of 35% would recover ▪ Construction contracts with solid counterparties Fixed price are made with fixed price equity construction contract ▪ Project costs are secured before construction starts ▪ 74% of units in production are sold at end Q3’18 9 Low-risk business model creates healthy profits Strategy Value drivers ▪ Presence in fast-growing urban regions with high demand and large market depth Competitive housing offering, ▪ Competitive prices, addressing large customer base targeting growth regions ▪ Defined housing concepts, aimed at wide range of consumers ▪ Value appreciation through refinement of land for housing development Large, actively-managed ▪ Flexibility to develop thousands of homes in growing urban regions land bank ▪ Active asset management ▪ No in-house construction arm; improves flexibility and cost optimisation Efficient and flexible ▪ Project-based business model improves flexibility and reduces risk cost structure ▪ Economies of scale through large projects ▪ Lean organisation reduces overhead Capital-efficient business model ▪ 60% pre-sale before construction start lowers project financing need and inventory risk backed by strong balance sheet ▪ Sound debt structure and financial flexibility 10 Margin development through project stages* 6 – 36 MONTHS 6 – 12 MONTHS 3 – 9 MONTHS 12 – 24 MONTHS 0 MONTHS Acquire and refine Contracting, marketing Project design Construction and sales Delivery to customers land for development and pre-sales Project margin 20% 15% Project margin 10% 20% 5% 0% ▪ Land acquired with minimum ▪ Adding value through ▪ Value added when ▪ Maximising price in ▪ Delivery in accordance with 12% project margin and building permits and achieving 60% pre-sale accordance with market expectations minimum 12% IRR area utilisation (+2% provisions) * Assuming flat market development 11 Project margin development NOK million 3 637 3 479 3 480 3 357 3 254 3 239 3 206 3 195 3 142 3 194 3 179 3 038 2 931 2 929 2 683 2 586 2 377 29% 30% 28% 28% 28% 26% 26% 26% 26% 27% 26% 24% 22% 20% 20% 19% 20% Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 12 months rolling revenues (NGAAP)* 12 months rolling project margin** * Construction costs are exclusive of financial expenses in the segment reporting (NGAAP) ** Project margins are exclusive of overhead costs 12 Dividend policy Selvaag Bolig’s ambition is to pay high and stable dividends to its owners. The company aims to pay dividends of minimum 40 per cent of net annual profit, paid in two instalments over the year. However, the size of the dividend will be weighed against the company’s liquidity forecasts and capital adequacy. The company will maintain an equity ratio of minimum 30 per cent 13 Earnings and dividend per share since IPO Accumulated earnings and earnings per share NOK EPS DPS 26.18 24.10 ▪ H1 2019 EPS of NOK 2.08 (1.60) 17.96 13.61 14.30 ▪ H1 2019 DPS of NOK 2.00 12.30 (2.00) 10.40 7.40 7.80 4.70 4.80 2.95 3.20 1.70 0.00 0.50 H2 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 H1 2019 14 Building land bank throughout the economic cycle Land-bank objectives Land bank exposure Geographical spread ▪ Substantial land bank to accommodate targets/growth in core areas ▪ Acquire the right mix of zoned and unzoned land in suitable locations Trondheim ▪ No zoning risk: price and market risk 369 units minimised ▪ Land acquisitions throughout the economic cycle Bergen 516 units Greater-Oslo ▪ Good infrastructure and public transport 9 967 units Stockholm Stavanger 40 units 969 units Note: The numbers represent the size of the land portfolio as at 30 September 2018. All numbers are adjusted for Selvaag Bolig’s share in joint ventures. 1) Greater Oslo area: Oslo, Akershus, Buskerud, Vestfold and Østfold, 2) The residential property development portfolio consists of land plots that are to be paid for when planning permission is received. The portfolio has a development potential of ~5 300 residential units, whereof the company has purchasing obligations for ~4 500 and purchasing options for ~800 units. 15 Strategic priorities and outlook Strategy Targets ▪ Maintain position as a leading residential developer in Norway Competitive housing offering, ▪ Long-term growth does not affect profitability or financial risk targeting growth regions ▪ Continue developing industrial approach to homebuilding Large, actively-managed ▪ Land acquisitions throughout the economic cycle land bank ▪ Focus on Greater Oslo, Stavanger, Bergen, Trondheim, and Stockholm ▪ Ensure economies of scale through large projects, typically >300 units in Oslo Efficient and flexible and >150 units in other regions cost structure ▪ Project margin of minimum 12% ▪ High and stable dividends.