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Earthquake Hazard Mitigation for South Asia

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Earthquake Hazard Mitigation for South Asia ContentsContents Messages .......................................................................................................................... (v) SAARC Workshop on Earthquake Risk Management in South Asia: ............................... 1 Background Note SAARC Disaster Management Centre, New Delhi Progress Achieved in the Field of Disaster Management in Pakistan ........................... 31 National Disaster Management Authority, Pakistan National Guidelines for Management of Earthquakes ..................................................... 41 National Disaster Management Authority, India Preparing for the Big One in Kathmandu Valley ............................................................. 47 National Society of Earthquake Technology, Nepal Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment in Afghanistan .................................................... 51 Thimpu Valley Earthquake Risk Management Project ................................................... 55 Standards and Quality Control Authority, Bhutan Seismic Hazard Assessment and Mitigation in Bangladesh .......................................... 61 International Centre for Urban Safety Engineering, Tokyo Assessment and Diagnosis of Existing Multi-storeyed Buildings ................................. 67 in SAARC Countries for Desired Seismic Performance D.K.Paul, Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, India South Asia Regional initiative for Earthquake Risk Reduction ..................................... 77 and Recovery Preparedness Sohel Khan, ERRP, Kathmandu Earthquake Hazard Mitigation for South Asia .............................................................. 85 Recommendations of Workshop in Rice University Devastating Earthquakes of South Asia ........................................................................ 91 SAARC Disaster Management Centre, New Delhi Next Year’s Earthquake vs. Last Year’s Disaster vis-à-vis ............................................... 109 Engineered Action vs. Societal Reaction Roger Bilham, University of Colorado, USA SAARC Workshop on Earthquake Risk Management in South Asia Background Paper SAARC Disaster Management Centre, New Delhi Introduction 1.1 South Asia is one of the most earthquake prone regions in the world. Six out of the eight countries of South Asia, namely Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh are located within most seismically active Himalayan - Hindukush belt which has seen some of the worst earthquakes recorded in human history. Parts of Indian peninsula as also the island territory of Andaman & Nicobar have major seismic fault lines that have ruptured time and again. The remaining two countries, Sri Lanka and Maldives are vulnerable to tsunamigenic earthquake in the Indian Ocean. A large part of the coastal areas of Bangladesh, India and Pakistan are similarly vulnerable to underwater earthquakes originating in Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea. 1.2 Earthquakes have caused heavy damages in terms of deaths, injuries, destruction of habitat and disruption of economic activity that have left scars on a large section of population in wide areas. Realising the potentially catastrophic consequences of largely unpredictable earthquakes, particularly in growing urban areas in different seismic zones of South Asia, it has become imperative that countries of the region pull their resources, expertise and strengths and share their experiences with each other in assessing the risk of earthquakes at regional and local levels, mitigate the risks through a combination of structural and non- structural measures, respond to the earthquake events by rapid response and relief to the victims and reconstruct the damaged houses, infrastructure and livelihood to restore normal life and economy in the affected areas. Such regional cooperation is envisaged under the SAARC Comprehensive Framework of Disaster Management adopted by the Member States. In order to assess the strength and weakness of current initiatives for earthquake risk assessment, mitigation, response and recovery in the region, a SAARC Workshop on Earthquake Risk Management has been organized by the SAARC Disaster Management Centre, New Delhi in collaboration with the National Disaster Management Authority of Pakistan in Islamabad on 8-9 October 2009. The Workshop would develop a Roadmap for Regional Cooperation for a short, medium and long term basis for earthquake risk management in the region. Pattern of Earthquakes in South Asia 2.1 Till recently the seismic networks in South Asia remained rather sparse and historical data on earthquake over centuries are also not adequate. Based on the analysis and inference from available data the frequency and magnitude of earthquakes in South Asia can be presented in the following table: 1 Background Paper Table 1: Frequency and Magnitude of Earthquakes in South Asia Descriptor Magnitude Frequency Great 8 + 1 in 25 years Major 7 - 7.9 1 in 16 years Strong 6 - 6.9 1 in 4 years Moderate 5 - 5.9 35 every year Light 4 - 4.9 1550 every year (estimated) Minor 3 - 3.9 5500 every year (estimated) Very Minor 2 - 2.9 100,000 every year (estimated) 2.2 In terms of fatalities only earthquakes of magnitude 6 and above are known to have caused damages to life and property, although there are evidences that earthquakes of lesser magnitudes did cause cracks in structures and trigger landslides. The cumulative effect of such damages could be fatal, but very few empirical studies on such damages are available. 2.3 The ten strongest earthquakes in terms of magnitude with its epicenter in South Asia or its vicinity during the past 100 years were: Table 2: Ten Strongest Earthquakes of South Asia since 1900 Date Mw Latitude Longitude Location 1 26 December 2004 9.1 03.29 95.98 Sumatra-Andaman arc 2 15 August 1950 8.6 28.38 96.76 Chayu -Upper Assam 3 15 January 1934 8.1 27.55 87.09 Nepal-Bihar border 4 27 November 1945 8.0 25.15 63.48 Makran Coast, Pakistan 5 30 May 1935 7.8 28.87 66.40 Quetta, Balochistan 6 4 April 1905 7.8 33.00 76.00 Kangra, Himachal Pradesh 7 26 June 1941 7.7 12.40 92.50 Middle Andaman Island 8 26 January 2001 7.7 23.44 70.31 Bhuj, Gujarat 9 8 October 2005 7.6 34.43 73.53 Kashmir-Kohistan 10 29 February 1944 7.4 00.30 75.30 Near Maldive Islands 2.4 In terms of fatalities the ten strongest earthquakes during the past 100 years were: Table 3: Ten Most Fatal Earthquakes of South Asia Year Location Magnitude Deaths in South Asia 2004 Sumatra 9.1 55,000+ 2005 Kashmir 7.6 75,900 2001 Bhuj 7.7 13,845 1935 Quetta 7.3 35,000 1905 Kangra 7.8 28,000 1934 Nepal-Bihar 8.1 10,653 1993 Latur 6.4 10,000 1974 Northern Pakistan 6.2 5,300 1998 Afghanistan 6.6 4,000 1998 Afghanistan 6.1 2,323 2 SAARC Workshop on Earthquake Risk Management in South Asia It is clear that in the recent years earthquakes are becoming more fatal and there are indications that these would be even more fatal in the years ahead due to the increasing exposure more vulnerable population and assets to the risks of earthquakes. So far major catastrophic earthquakes of South Asia have mostly occurred in low population density rural areas. Impacts of such earthquakes nearer the urban centres shall be far more devastating for which the countries of the region are not at all prepared. It is therefore extremely important to assess the risks of earthquake in a comprehensive manner so that appropriate measures can be taken to reduce these risks. Earthquake Risk Assessment of South Asia 3.1 Earthquake risk assessment involves three aspects: seismic hazard assessment, assessment of building typology and overall exposure of population and assets in hazard prone areas. Seismic Hazard Assessment (SHA) is primarily based on seismotectonics, past earthquake events and damage pattern. It refers to the likelihood and effects of future earthquakes in a region, therefore, can be considered as a measure of long term earthquake prediction. Seismotectonics of the region 3.2 The world‘s youngest mountain belt, the Himalaya and Hindukush, envelope South Asia all along its northern fringe, from Afghanistan in the west to Bangladesh in the east. The Himalaya is still evolving due to northward push of the Indian Plate towards the Eurasian plate. As a result Himalaya has emerged as the largest active continent-continent collision zone on earth causing numerous major and great earthquakes. The same process the Indian Plate has collided with the Burmese Micro-plate, resulting in deadly earthquakes in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Likewise the northward convergence of the Indian plate against the Eurasian plate has caused seismicity of central and eastern. 3.3 The Indus suture zone marks the beginning of the subduction between Indian sub-continent and Eurasia in early tertiary times. This zone is marked by relict oceanic crust (ophiolite) that separated two continents. With time, the collision boundary shifted southward, and the northern edge of the Indian plate was thrust back onto itself, first along the Main Central Thrust (MCT) and later along the Main Boundary Thrust (MBT). Presently the main tectonic displacement zone lies along the Himalayan Frontal Fault System, which comprises Himalayan Frontal thrust at the edge of the Indo-Gangetic plain, and several anticlines and synclines to the north. spatial distribution of earthquakes in this region is clustered around the surface traces of the main tectonic discontinuities such as MCT, MBT and HFT in the Himalayan range. At the outer fringe, three great earthquakes (M=8) struck the foot hills of the Himalaya in 1905, 1934 and
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