IS THERE AN ANGEL TO RIDE THE OTTAWA WHIRLWIND?

Thomas S. Axworthy

Minority parliaments have lives of their own, writes Tom Axworthy, who lived through five of them in the 1960s and 1970s, and has experienced both the propping up and the toppling of minority governments. Power moves from the executive to the legislature, and MPs become more important than deputy ministers. The House leader becomes a closer confidant of the prime minister than the finance minister. Reading the mood of the House, and counting heads, becomes critical to the survival of the government. As Paul Martin returns at the head of a minority government, he faces a reinvigorated and united Conservative Party. After the splintered oppositions that produced three easy Liberal majorities in the Chrétien era, “this de-alignment era is clearly passed and re-alignment is on the horizon” with the election of 2004. Can Paul Martin ride the whirlwind of minority Parliament, or is he heading out into a perfect storm?

Les minorités parlementaires ont une vie bien à elles, écrit Tom Axworthy, qui en a connu cinq durant les années 1960 et 1970, et qui a vu de près comment se construit et se renverse un gouvernement minoritaire. Le pouvoir politique se déplace de l’exécutif vers le législatif, de sorte que les députés acquièrent plus d’importance que les sous-ministres. Le président de la Chambre devient un confident intime du premier ministre, éclipsant même le ministre des Finances dans ce rôle. La survie du gouvernement dépend étroitement de son aptitude à percevoir et à interpréter les moindres nuances d’opinion parmi les députés et à savoir compter au moment des votes en Chambre. Au moment où Paul Martin prend la direction d’un gouvernement minoritaire, il fait face à un Parti conservateur revivifié et uni. Les divisions qui ont caractérisé l’opposition à l’époque du régime Chrétien ont donné trois victoires faciles au Parti libéral, mais cette période de dissension est nettement révolue, affirme Tom Axworthy, et on peut deviner un ralliement des forces à l’horizon. Paul Martin saura-t-il s’en tirer dans la mêlée qui attend son gouvernement minoritaire ou au contraire sera-t-il consumé dans la conflagration ?

riting for a more heroic age, Joseph Addison in ments in a row, an economy that was performing at the top his 1705 poem, “The Campaign,” described the of the G8 league, with public support well over 50 percent. W leadership of the Duke of Marlborough as the But amidst this political bounty there was also the poisoned cool-headed ability to shape cascading events: chalice of the sponsorship scandal, and the release of the So when an angel by divine command auditor general’s indictment in February 2004 put the new With rising tempests shakes a guilty land, Martin government on the defensive, a stance from which Such as of late over pale Britannia past, it never really recovered until the last two weeks of the June Calm and serene he drives the furious blast; election campaign when it finally persuaded a plurality of And, pleas’d th’almighty’s orders to perform, voters to look at the Conservative alternative instead of Rides in the whirlwind, and directs the storm. venting their anger about Liberal misdeeds. Paul Martin may have begun his prime ministership in The June 2004 election returned a minority Parliament December 2003 confident that, like Addison’s hero, he — Canada’s first since 1979 — and with 135 seats Martin could respond to events with a central guiding intelligence will have a second chance to make his mark. Minority gov- and organize his policy battalions into a coherent whole, ernments, however, are very different entities from the but that is not how recent history has unfolded. Martin took majority governments Canadians have become accustomed over a Liberal Party that had won three majority govern- to since 1980. Minority Parliaments produce whirlwinds of

20 OPTIONS POLITIQUES SEPTEMBRE 2004 Is there an angel to ride the Ottawa whirlwind? an altogether different intensity than Harvard political scientist V.O. conservative-leaning workers, the normal political gusts. For starters, Key Jr., in his seminal 1955 article, Reagan Democrats. every member of Parliament knows “Theory of Critical Elections,” first Great Britain demonstrates a sim- that another election is just around pointed out that some elections have ilar cyclical pattern of critical elec- the corner, so minority Parliaments are more important long-range conse- tions: the 18th-century Whigs and like permanent election campaigns. quences for the political system than Tories morphed into the 19th-century What happens in the next minority others. “Critical” elections are those Liberals and Conservatives, but in Parliament will largely depend on rare electoral upheavals that funda- 1918, the British Liberal Party split what lessons the parties draw from the mentally change voting patterns, lead- into two by being unable to cope with election that just passed. ing to the dominance of one particular the pressures of the Great War and the party or public philosophy. Elections, Irish question. British politics de- hen a man is to be hanged in a Key wrote, follow cyclical patterns — aligned from its Liberal and W fortnight, advised the alignment, which establishes a stable Conservative base, and by the 1920s redoubtable Dr. Johnson, like Addison pattern of voting behaviour, de- the Labour Party replaced the Liberals another 18th century sage, “it concen- alignment, when the pattern is bro- as the progressive choice. trates the mind wonderfully.” If this be ken, and then realignment, when a so, Paul Martin must be concentrating new stable voting system reappears. anada, too, has had a cyclical pat- C tern of critical elections Not the least of Martin’s worries is the very real possibility that similar to the American and British examples. The criti- the 2004 election heralds the passing of the age of easy Liberal cal question today is majorities into a new era of competitive politics with the whether the 2004 election Conservative Party well positioned to take power. Rather than was critical. In 1878, Sir a temporary hiccup in the traditional electoral dominance of John A. Macdonald’s victo- ry on the National Policy the Liberal Party, the 2004 election may be the tremor that set a pattern for forecasts a political earthquake that is gathering force. Conservative supremacy for nearly a generation, until fiercely. The prime minister has shuf- In the United States, for example, Sir Wilfrid Laurier won Quebec for the fled his Cabinet; next he must find at the 1800 election saw Thomas Liberal Party in 1896. For more than a least $3 billion in spending cuts, Jefferson’s Democrats victorious over hundred years Quebec was the bedrock restore the morale of the public service, the Federalist-Whigs, and the Democrat- of the Liberal Party. Like British poli- reach out to his divided party, recon- Whig era lasted until the 1850s. Then tics after the Great War, Canadian pol- nect with Quebec, renew hope in the de-alignment set in. Typically in de- itics began to be de-aligned with the West that things will be different, and alignment eras, there are high intensity rise of the Progressives in the 1920s, regain the confidence of Canadians in issues, existing party systems cannot but Mackenzie King’s political genius general by showing he knows where he cope and third parties arise. By the ensured that the Canadian Liberal is going. This formidable work of 1850s, the issue of slavery convulsed the Party would not go the way of its reconstruction must be accomplished United States, a new Republican party British cousins. Moreover, in 1935, like in a minority Parliament, which creates arose, the Whigs disappeared and the the American New Deal, King maneu- its own dynamic, in a political atmos- Democrats split into Southern and vered his way through the woe of the phere frenzied with the likelihood of National wings. Lincoln, a former Whig Great Depression and won a victory so another election within a year to eight- congressman was able to add the anti- large that the Liberals became “the een months. Not the least of Martin’s slavery movement to the traditional Government Party.” The King realign- worries is the very real possibility that Whig base, and his elections in 1860 ment lasted for decades; in 1980, for the 2004 election heralds the passing of and 1864 realigned American voters example, in an election in which I the age of easy Liberal majorities into a into a Republican majority, a pattern played a role as an adviser to Pierre new era of competitive politics with that endured until 1932. In that year, Trudeau, the Liberals and the Conservative Party well positioned the Depression broke the backs of the Conservatives split seats in Atlantic to take power. Rather than a temporary Republicans and Franklin Roosevelt cre- Canada, Trudeau swept Quebec with hiccup in the traditional electoral dom- ated a new realignment, the New Deal 74 out of 75 seats, the Conservatives inance of the Liberal Party, the 2004 Coalition, which lasted until 1980. were dominant in the West and election may be the tremor that fore- Ronald Reagan’s sweeps in 1980 and Ontario decided the election with 53 casts a political earthquake that is gath- 1984, in turn, broke up the New Deal Liberal seats to 38 for the ering force. Coalition as he successfully attracted Conservatives and 5 for the NDP.

POLICY OPTIONS 21 SEPTEMBER 2004 Thomas S. Axworthy

The 1993 election was a critical de-aligning election; the results from which we are emerging only today. Like the 1850s in the United States, when the Whigs disintegrated over slavery, the Meech Lake debate and the 1992 constitutional referendum led to the rise of the Reform Party, the Bloc Québécois and the decimation of the Mulroney Conservative coalition. In the 1993 election the Conservatives fell from 43 percent of the vote and 169 seats in 1988 to 16 percent of the vote and 2 seats. The Bloc and Reform each won over 50 seats and Jean Chrétien’s Liberals coasted as the only national party left standing with 41 percent of the vote and 177 seats. As long as the Conservative base was divided between Reform-Alliance blocs and the remnants of the old Progressive Conservatives, the Liberals could sweep Ontario with 100 seats. The great Conservative meltdown of 1993 and Jean Chrétien’s success in exploiting it, gave the Liberal Party a wonderful ride throughout the 1990s.

n 2004, this de-alignment era is I clearly passed and realignment is on the horizon. The country is reverting to a pattern that Mackenzie King would Montreal Gazette archives have recognized — save the existence of a separatist party in Quebec with 49 Liberal Leader Pierre Trudeau leaves the scene of the crime after the fall of Joe Clark’s minority government on a budget nonconfidence question in December 1979. percent of the vote and 54 seats. The “Trudeau won the subsequent 1980 election, and the referendum victory of 1980; efforts by Stephen Harper and Peter reform of the Constitution and the Charter of Rights followed,” Tom Axworthy writes. MacKay to unite the Right have The hinge of history turned with that vote in the House. restored the Conservative Party to a competitive position in Ontario, while won only 31 percent. In 1980, a typical ship scandal, but these are people who keeping the Reform/Alliance base in Canadian election before the 1993 de- are used to voting Conservative, and the West. The key to the 2004 election, alignment, the Conservatives had 32.5 could easily do so again. Over the next in my opinion, was not last minute percent of the vote and 103 seats; in year, Harper can move either to assure switches by the New Democratic Party 2004, they won 32 percent of the vote Progressive Conservatives that Randy to the Liberals to prevent a Harper vic- and 99 seats. We have gone back to the White will never be justice minister or tory: the essential issue was where did future before the crack-up of 1993. De- he can leapfrog social issues entirely by the progressives in the Progressive alignment is over. Which way will developing a new economic agenda. Conservative Party go? In Ontario, in realignment go? From de-alignment to realignment 2000, the combined Alliance-PC vote Although Stephen Harper looked usually takes two steps and Harper has was 38 percent; in 2004, Harper cap- ashen-faced on election night, the successfully achieved phase one. tured most of this with 31.5 percent, Conservative Party is very close to but 6 percent migrated to the Liberals. making the leap to government. In aul Martin, in contrast to Stephen New Brunswick was a similar story. In Ontario in 2004, the Liberals persuad- P Harper, looked delighted on elec- 2000, the combined Alliance- ed many progressives that their fear of tion night but his task is even more Conservative share of the vote was 48 the conservative social agenda should daunting in attempting to make the percent, but in 2004 the Conservatives trump their anger over the sponsor- forces of realignment go his way.

22 OPTIONS POLITIQUES SEPTEMBRE 2004 Is there an angel to ride the Ottawa whirlwind?

Harper, at least, can make a plausible to play up any policy disagreements 1965, 1972 and 1979 produced minor- case that there are another 20 Ontario between Martin and Charest while ity governments, and with the Right seats that are real targets. With 20 more proclaiming that Quebec’s interests are now united again under the seats, he would have a Conservative once again being ignored. Jean Charest Conservative banner, Canada may be minority government. Martin, in con- will be more of a presence in the returning to its minority-era tradition. trast, has reached the normal historical minority Parliament opening in the What lessons from the 1960s and Liberal plateau in Ontario and is above fall of 2004 than he ever was in his 1970s might apply to a minority it in Atlantic Canada. With 8 seats, the time as minister of the environment in Parliament in 2004? Should we be Liberals made a beachhead in British the Mulroney government or as leader enthralled or appalled? Columbia in June 2004. History would of the Progressive Conservative Party. I served as a very junior research argue that the only place where This much is clear. The critical elec- assistant to Walter Gordon, then presi- Martin’s Liberals can grow is in tion of 2004 ended de-alignment. The dent of the Privy Council in the Quebec. But what conceivable strategy next election in 2005 or 2006 could minority government of Lester can make that come about? The prime realign the pattern of Canadian politics Pearson; Keith Davey, Liberal organizer minister tried a new tack of supreme, persuaded me to put attracting soft nationalists by Although Stephen Harper looked my academic career on hold persuading Jean Lapierre, a and work on urban policy for founder of the Bloc Québécois, ashen-faced on election night, the Pierre Trudeau’s minority gov- to lead the Martin team in Conservative Party is very close to ernment of 1972-74; and in Quebec. As a consequence, making the leap to government. In 1979, under the inspired lead- Stéphane Dion, Mr. Chrétien’s Ontario in 2004, the Liberals ership of Jim Coutts, then chief champion of federalism, was of staff to Trudeau, I was part demoted from the Cabinet. But persuaded many progressives that of the Opposition team that in the 2004 election, the their fear of the conservative social brought down Joe Clark’s Liberals fell 10 points, from agenda should trump their anger minority government. So I 44.2 percent of the vote in 2000 over the sponsorship scandal, but have seen minority govern- to 34 percent in 2004. Lapierre ments from both sides — the won the traditional Liberal these are people that are used to difficulties in propping one up, stronghold of Outremont seat voting Conservative, and could and the opportunities to bring by 3,000 votes; Dion won his easily do so again. Over the next one down. As Bruce seat by 21,000. In the July year, Harper can move either to Springsteen sings, Glory Days. Cabinet shuffle following the The first critical change in a election, Dion returned to assure Progressive Conservatives that transition from a majority gov- Cabinet as minister of the envi- Randy White will never be justice ernment to a minority is the ronment and the Dion-Lapierre minister or he can leapfrog social centrality of Parliament itself. tandem will have to think issues entirely by developing a new Martin has made much of the through what to do in Quebec. “democratic deficit” and the If the Martin government economic agenda. From de- need to restore the influence of has to somehow reconcile the alignment to realignment usually backbench members. Nothing Lapierre-Dion version of feder- takes two steps and Harper has will erase the democratic deficit alism, the political task of Gilles successfully achieved phase one. faster than the election of a Duceppe is considerably more minority Parliament. The House straightforward. The goal for Duceppe of Commons becomes king — power in the upcoming minority Parliament for years to come, and knowing this, slips away from the executive toward will be to contribute to the downfall of each of the party leaders will be under the legislature. In a majority govern- Quebec Premier Jean Charest. There enormous and constant pressure. ment, Parliament is like a production should be no doubt that the Bloc pri- line. How many bills can we get marily has its eye on the 2007 provin- or the current generation, a minor- through, how do we organize the com- cial election in Quebec. Only if the F ity Parliament would be a strange mittees, what information should we Parti Québécois defeats Charest will and wondrous new beast that hasn’t provide to MPs, how can the require- Canada enjoy the delights of a third been seen since 1979. But I come from ments of Parliament be balanced against referendum. The Bloc now has 54 a political generation in which minor- all the other tasks of government, etc? members of Parliament with riding ity governments were the norm, the The demands of the executive almost officer and staffs dedicated to Charest’s stability of a majority government, the always win out over the needs of the demise, and Duceppe’s strategy will be rarity. The elections of 1962, 1963, House.

POLICY OPTIONS 23 SEPTEMBER 2004 Thomas S. Axworthy

ot so in a minority Parliament. minority Parliaments. It’s like one long In transiting from prime minis- N Policy actually gets made on the election campaign where seemingly ter to opposition leader, Trudeau’s floor of the Commons. The House trivial issues can spring up and domi- most significant decision was to turn leader and the chief whip, not the min- nate the day. Trudeau, for example, over House strategy to Allan ister of Finance or the minister of was not known for his love of profes- MacEachen. He was an absolute Foreign Affairs, become the critical col- sional sport teams. Yet in 1974, John genius at reading the mood of the leagues of the prime min- ister. The whole focus of The first critical change in a transition from a majority Ottawa shifts from quiet discussions between government to a minority is the centrality of Parliament itself. deputy ministers to the Martin has made much of the “democratic deficit” and the public and noisy negotia- need to restore the influence of backbench members. Nothing tions between politicians will erase the democratic deficit faster than the election of a in the cockpit of Parliament. And the minority Parliament. The House of Commons becomes king — negotiations are not just power slips away from the executive toward the legislature. In a between the representa- majority government, Parliament is like a production line. How tives of the various parties many bills can we get through, how do we organize the — even more important are the negotiations with- committees, what information should we provide to MPs, how in your own party. In a can the requirements of Parliament be balanced against all the narrow minority, the vote other tasks of government, etc? The demands of the executive of every MP is key and almost always win out over the needs of the House. you have to work as hard to keep your own Atlantic caucus on board as you do to persuade the New Bassett of Toronto wanted to start a House and using House rules for par- Democratic Party. professional football league that tisan advantage. In December 1979, If Parliament is king in a minority threatened the longstanding Canadian energy prices were going through setting, political party organization is Football League. Trudeau was persuad- the roof but John Crosbie, then queen. The prime minister and MPs ed to introduce a bill banning the finance minister, chose to raise the only have jobs because of political par- World Football League. I attended a federal gasoline tax by 18 cents. The ties, but in majority governments the policy meeting to discuss the Liberal NDP was first off the mark: Ed political party machine is ignored even Party’s proposed platform and several Broadbent opposed the budget and more regularly than the MP. The presi- bold ideas were on the table. Trudeau Bob Rae moved a motion of non- dent of the party may not even be was asked, “But will you do it?” to confidence. MacEachen then noticed known by all MPs. which he replied, “If I will do the that the small Creditiste bloc from World Football League, I’ll do any- Quebec also said it would oppose the gain, not so in minority thing!” budget unless the proceeds were A Parliaments. Since the govern- The centrality of Parliament, the used for projects in Quebec. Two par- ment may be defeated at any time, party, and public opinion in minority ties down, and only the Liberal Party the party must be in a high state of Parliaments is usefully illustrated by to go. MacEachen encouraged the readiness to go into an election at a recalling the Joe Clark government of Liberal caucus to oppose the budget moment’s notice. This very uncer- 1979. In the 1979 election, after 16 and Liberal whips did yeoman work tainty also has a bracing impact on years of Liberal governments, Clark to get their MPs to attend the vote. political ambition: existing leaders had defeated Trudeau. In 1972, Two Liberal MPs arrived in stretchers know their jobs are on the line, lead- Trudeau had held only a knife-edged, and when Maurice Dionne painfully ers in waiting and their supporters two-seat plurality over Robert walked to his seat aided by a cane, can grow giddy with hope. These Stanfield’s Conservatives, but in 1979, swathed in bandages, a frisson of competing ambitions must also be Clark enjoyed a more comfortable fear swept the Conservative ranks. factored into the daily business of lead: the Conservatives had 136 seats, The Liberals were serious. And the government. the Liberals 114, NDP 26, and Tory whips had allowed several MPs Créditistes 6. It would pretty much to be absent. hort-term public opinion and the take a united opposition to defeat the Meanwhile, Jim Coutts had S role of the media, always crucial in government. Unlikely, most thought, Martin Goldfarb in the field testing politics, assume gale force during but a surprise was in store. public opinion (which was bitterly

24 OPTIONS POLITIQUES SEPTEMBRE 2004 Is there an angel to ride the Ottawa whirlwind? opposed to the Crosbie budget) and like the national pharmacare pro- economic actor independent of the Conservatives had not polled since gram. Social policy will be the glue of Parliament, he will have the major role August. On the evening of Dec. 13, a de facto Liberal-NDP alliance. in ensuring that inflation does not 1979, the Clark Conservatives were explode and, in general, maintaining defeated on the budget by a vote of inority governments have their economic sanity. 139-133. MacEachen and Coutts had M advantages: they are edgy, Fifth, watch for measures to succeeded where Diefenbaker and reflect instantly public opinion, and increase the power of backbenchers to Stanfield had failed: they had brought often are creative and bold. But their go far beyond anything Martin has yet down a minority government on an demerits are the opposite of their outlined. Whatever their political issue of their choosing. Trudeau won attraction: there is little stability, no stripe, all MPs believe they should the subsequent 1980 election, and the long-term planning, and every issue is have more power. We may move much referendum victory of 1980; reform of subjected to a short-term political cal- faster toward a US congressional sys- the Constitution, and the Charter of culus. For more than a decade we have tem of government — a “Washmin- Rights followed. It is fair to say that the become used to the Chrétien majority ster” mixture of US and British pivot of Canadian history changed government that did not get in your institutions. because of that December night. face, frequently put us to sleep and In a minority Parliament like the Could the minority Parliament opted for safety first. A minority one we have just elected, a govern- in 2004 resemble the Parliament of Parliament will be the reverse: excit- ment can be defeated at any time and, 1979? One major difference is that ing, but perhaps a little dangerous. at most, such a Parliament only lasts the 54-seat Bloc Québécois contin- First, the most important figures, about 18 months. Having just reshuf- gent will use their power to promote apart from the prime minister, are the fled his Cabinet, what policy priorities separatism, as opposed to the House leader and whip. The premium should the prime minister be concen- Creditistes of the 1960s and 1970s, will be on negotiating and listening trating on?

The Bloc will be the fulcrum around which a minority hen the House of Parliament teeters. The Bloc is social democratic in orientation. W Commons resumes Martin’s caucus has strong representation from Atlantic Canada its work in the fall of 2004, Martin faces the challenge and Toronto (both traditional supporters of activist of putting forward an agen- government), and he will need support from the NDP. On da that in the short term social and economic policy he will also want carrots to entice can command support in the Bloc. A standpat budget like March 2004, which did little the House, in the medium term can win favour with more than promise debt reduction, will be a thing of the past the voters to ensure that in the new Liberal minority; it will move much quicker on any realignment breaks his priorities like the national pharmacare program. Social policy way, and in the long term will be the glue of a de facto Liberal-NDP alliance. prepare Canada to meet the challenges of our 21st-cen- peculiar in many ways but still strong skills, not executive management. tury world. There is also the additional federalists. The Bloc will be the ful- Second, in a minority Parliament, and all-important issue of promoting crum around which a minority with the chance of an election ever federalism in Quebec and helping Parliament teeters. The Bloc is social present, parties cannot afford the lux- Premier Charest recover politically in democratic in orientation. Martin’s ury of internal feuds. Both Martin and time for the 2007 Quebec election. caucus has strong representation Harper will work hard on party unity. Martin will have to deny the Bloc cred- from Atlantic Canada and Toronto Third, the Department of Finance, it for positive initiatives while making (both traditional supporters of which has pretty much run Ottawa the counter-argument that it is only activist government), and he will since 1993, will now have to share through partnership that French- and need support from the NDP. On power with caucus and House of English-speaking Canadians alike can social and economic policy he will Commons committees. Ministers and achieve their dreams for a good life. also want carrots to entice the Bloc. A deputy ministers will suddenly take To fend off the challenge of standpat budget like March 2004, their attendance before House com- Stephen Harper, Martin will also want which did little more than promise mittees seriously. to keep his reputation for fiscal pru- debt reduction, will be a thing of the Fourth, the governor of the Bank dence, so, unlike the minority past in the new Liberal minority; it of Canada will be an even more impor- Parliament of 1972-74, there will be will move much quicker on priorities tant figure than he is today. As the one no opening of the budgetary taps.

POLICY OPTIONS 25 SEPTEMBER 2004 Thomas S. Axworthy

This fiscal requirement will present ter from Saskatchewan, in “The Ken Dryden, who is Social the government with its first chal- Arithmetic of Health Care,” an IRPP Development Minister, will be the lenge. A little-noticed feature of the Policy Matters published in July 2004, emptiness of the fiscal cupboard after March 2004 budget was that Ralph writes that our $80 billion public health care is subtracted. In the 2004 Goodale, the minister of Finance who health system is growing at a rate of 7 election, the Liberals promised $28 returned to his position despite much percent per year on average and gov- billion in new spending over five speculation that he would become ernment revenues, including the fed- years, including $5 billion for cities House leader, promised $3 billion in eral transfer of $65 billion in new and daycare/early learning priorities spending cuts to meet his existing health funding in the last five years, respectively. These hopes may be projections, and this was before the are only growing at 5 percent. At this dashed by the September showdown ambitious Liberal platform of the rate, MacKinnon’s arithmetic shows over health. Articulate and well- campaign which promised pharma- that health care will eventually crowd informed about education, Ken care and daycare! In short, despite the out all other priorities. Jean Charest, Dryden is in an especially difficult expectations raised by the campaign, whose political success is crucial for position. He must learn about being a the Martin minority government federalism, will be especially tena- member of Parliament and a minis- must begin its work by cutting spend- cious in defending Quebec’s autono- ter, at the same time as he must deliv- ing in a host of areas. Revenue my and in this he will be joined by er a major platform commitment. Minister John McCallum, Chairman Premier Ralph Klein of Alberta, fresh Pierre Trudeau once told me that one of the Cabinet Committee on from announcing Alberta will soon of the best things Lester Pearson had Expenditure Review, will not have an pay off its provincial debt. done for him was to give him time on easy time because cutting spending the backbench before joining and disappointing interest groups lein may present a real challenge Cabinet. Trudeau had 18 months of only months away from the next K to Martin, the greatest since the anonymity as a backbench member campaign is a perilous political exer- Trudeau-Lévesque battles of the of Parliament where he could watch cise. The communication ability of 1970s. When Martin as finance min- and learn before being tested in the the government will be tested. ister and Klein as premier were both cockpit of Parliament debate. This reducing debt from their respective will be a luxury denied Ken Dryden. f an immediate x-budget exercise governments, they shared a common It is a good thing that as a goalie he I will be a surprise to many, the cen- priority and by and large stayed out was used to defending and taking trality of health care is a given for the of each other’s hair. But with his debt shots to the body, because in Ottawa immediate agenda. Here, too, the abolished, Klein will be in reach of he will be doing a lot of it. risks are high. Martin has a new new monsters to slay. A federal gov- One item that Tony Valeri, Health Minister, former BC NDP ernment that puts conditions on its Martin’s new House leader, should Premier Ujjal Dosanjh, experienced health care transfers while costs are move on immediately is reform of in federal-provincial relations but mushrooming, but still demands two House procedure to do away with most unaccustomed to the ways of both new expansions in homecare and three-line whips. It will be in the gov- the House of Commons and the pharmacare, is an easy target for the ernment’s interest to reduce non- Liberal Party. Martin and Dosanjh Alberta populist. Since Martin has to confidence motions to the minimum. will meet the premiers between deliver on health to fulfil his election This will make a virtue of necessity September 13 and 15 in a high-risk promises in 2004 and prepare for the since a Martin government faced with televised federal-provincial confer- next election, the premiers are in the more fiscal pressures than we realize, ence to fulfill Martin’s promise to fix cat-bird seat, none more so than with the necessity to spend billions on health care for a generation. That can Ralph Klein. The September health health care, with the Bloc eager to dis- be done, but not without more feder- conference will likely demand a credit federalism, and with Stephen al money than is on the table. The much larger share of federal resources Harper anxious for round two, will be premiers argue that even the addi- than Goodale’s forecast in his March treading dangerous waters. tional $9 billion Martin has promised 2004 budget or the projections of For Paul Martin, facing the first will not sustain the existing system the Liberal election platform. It may minority Parliament since 1979, there and certainly is not enough to under- be health and little else, unless taxes will be whirlwinds aplenty but angels take new programs in homecare and are raised, also no picnic when one is may be in short supply. pharmacare. Simply put, there is a in a minority. mismatch between the growth of Thomas S. Axworthy, former principal healthcare costs and the growth of he surprise for ministers like secretary to Prime Minister Trudeau, is government revenues. Janice T John Godfrey, who is in charge chairman of the Centre for the Study of MacKinnon, a former finance minis- of the cities agenda, and newcomer Democracy, Queen’s University.

26 OPTIONS POLITIQUES SEPTEMBRE 2004