1999 QUEENSLAND REDISTRIBUTION: ANALYSIS OF FINAL BOUNDARIES RESEARCH BULLETIN NO 9/99 ANTONY GREEN QUEENSLAND PARLIAMENTARY LIBRARY Research Publications and Resources Section BRISBANE December 1999 ISSN 1325-1341 ISBN 0 7242 7865 6 © Queensland Parliamentary Library, 1999 Copyright protects this publication. Except for purposes permitted by the Copyright Act 1968, reproduction by whatever means is prohibited, other than by Members of the Queensland Parliament in the course of their official duties, without the prior written permission of the Parliamentary Librarian, Queensland Parliamentary Library. Inquiries should be addressed to: Director, Research Publications & Resources, Queensland Parliamentary Library, Parliament House, George Street, Brisbane. Director: Ms Mary Seefried. (Tel: 3406 7116) Information about Research Publications can be found on the Internet at: http://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/library/research/index.html CONTENTS PAGE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1. INTRODUCTION 3 2. ANALYSIS BASED ON 1998 STATE ELECTION 5 3. FULL LISTING OF NEW ELECTORATES 12 4. ANALYSIS BASED ON 1995 STATE ELECTION 46 5. ANALYSIS BASED ON 1998 FEDERAL ELECTION 50 6. SUMMARY OF CHANGES TO MARGINS 53 APPENDICES A. SUMMARY OF 1998 ELECTION RESULTS 56 B. DETAILS OF METHODOLOGY AND CALCULATIONS 64 The Author Antony Green is an Election Analyst with ABC-Television, and has worked for the ABC on every state and federal election coverage since 1989. He also writes regularly on politics for the Sydney Morning Herald, and prepares publications for the New South Wales Parliamentary Library on electoral matters. Antony studied at Sydney University, obtaining a Bachelor of Science in mathematics and computing, and a Bachelor of Economics with Honours in politics. His last publication for the Queensland Parliamentary Library was "Queensland Elections 1986 to 1995: A Comparative Analysis" (Research Bulletin No. 5/96) Party Abbreviations AFP Australia First Party ALP Labor Party ARP Australian Reform Party CDP Christian Democrat Party DEM Australian Democrats GRN The Greens IND Independents LIB Liberal Party LNP Liberal or National Party NAT National Party ONP Pauline Hanson's One Nation Party OTH Other parties and independents TSP The Shooters' Party Comments and Feedback While every endeavour has been made to ensure the accuracy of this publication, transferring election results to match new electoral boundaries is not a precise science. In particular, the author has been forced to make decisions on splitting and moving polling places between electorates on the basis of maps rather than first hand local knowledge. The author is quite happy to receive feedback on any aspect of this publication directly at his e-mail address: [email protected]. 1999 Queensland Redistribution EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Summary of Major Changes The new electoral boundaries have effectively abolished one Brisbane and one country electorate, replaced by new electorates on the Gold and Sunshine Coasts. In Brisbane's northern suburbs, the new electorate of Stafford includes most of the abolished electorates of Chermside and Kedron, while Darling Downs has been created in place of the abolished Crows Nest and Western Downs. The two new electorates are Gaven in the Gold Coast hinterland, and Glass House in the Sunshine Coast hinterland. While all 89 electorates have had their boundaries altered, 76 retain the same name. Nine electorates have been re-named, while there are four abolished and four new electorates. The details of new and re-named electorates are set out in the table below. New Electorate Old Electorate/Name Algester New name for Archerfield Darling Downs Replaces Crows Nest and Western Downs Gaven New Gold Coast electorate Glass House New Sunshine Coast electorate Kawana New name for Mooloolah Mudgeeraba New name for Nerang Nanango New name for Barambah Pumicestone New name for Caboolture Robina New name for Merrimac Southern Downs New name for Warwick Stafford Replaces Chermside and Kedron Stretton New name for Sunnybank Yeerongpilly New name for Yeronga The Political Impact of the New Boundaries Based on the results of the 1998 Queensland election, the following two tables provide a summary of the political impact of the new boundaries. Summaries of all new electorates are provided in Section 2, with full details for each electorate in Section 3. Table 2.1: Summary of Redistribution based on 1998 Queensland Election Results ALP NAT LIB ONP IND Seats won at 1998 election 44 23 9 11 2 Translated to new boundaries 43 21 10 13 2 Table 2.2: Summary of Seats Changing Party Status based on 1998 Election Summary of Changes Abolished Electorates (4) Chermside (ALP), Crows Nest (NAT), Kedron (ALP), Western Downs (NAT) New Electorates (4) Darling Downs (NAT), Gaven (NAT), Glass House (ONP), Stafford (ALP) Electorates notionally changing Albert (NAT to ALP), Callide (NAT to ONP), Party status (3) Springwood (ALP to LIB) The same analysis has also been carried out using the results of the 1995 Queensland election. This analysis is summarised in the following two tables. Summaries of all new electorates based on the 1995 election are provided in Section 4. 1 1999 Queensland Redistribution Table 4.1: Summary of Redistribution based on 1995 Election ALP NAT LIB ONP IND Seats won at 1995 election 45 29 14 .. 1 Translated to new boundaries 43 30 15 .. 1 Table 4.2: Summary of Seats Changing Party Status based on 1995 Election. Summary of Changes Abolished Electorates (4) Chermside (ALP), Crows Nest (NAT), Kedron (ALP), Western Downs (NAT) New Electorates (4) Darling Downs (NAT), Gaven (NAT), Glass House (NAT), Stafford (ALP) Electorates notionally changing Albert (NAT to ALP), Bundaberg (ALP to NAT), Party status (6) Greenslopes (LIB to ALP), Mount Gravatt (ALP to LIB), Mulgrave (NAT to ALP), Mundingburra (ALP to LIB), Whitsunday (ALP to NAT) Based on analysis of the two elections, and the 1998 Federal election, the following table summarizes the seats where the margin for the sitting member has been significantly altered. The change in margins for all electorate are provided in Section 6. Table 6.1: Summary of Seats where Margin Changes by More Than 1% Party Electorates (Old Electorate Name) Strengthened for Labor Party Algester (Archerfield), Ashgrove, Greenslopes, Redcliffe, Waterford, Yeerongpilly (Yeronga) Weakened for Labor Party Bundaberg, Chatsworth, Fitzroy, Logan, Mount Gravatt, Mount Isa, Mundingburra, Whitsunday Strengthened for National Party Albert, Beaudesert, Broadwater, Mirani, Toowoomba North, Warrego Weakened for National Party Gregory, Redlands, Southport, Surfers Paradise Strengthened for Liberal Party Robina (Merrimac) Weakened for Liberal Party Clayfield Strengthened for One Nation Ipswich West Weakened for One Nation Burdekin, Lockyer, Pumicestone (Caboolture), Mulgrave Antony Green December 1999 2 1999 Queensland Redistribution 1. INTRODUCTION This publication contains estimates of the political impact of the new Queensland electoral boundaries, as finalised by the Queensland Redistribution Commission on 7 July 1999. Most of the analysis is based on re-assigning the results of the 1998 state election to correspond to the new boundaries. However, estimates are also provided based on the 1995 state election, and the 1998 federal election. Full details of the method of calculation used are contained in Appendix B. A Caution on Interpreting Figures All votes have been assigned to new electorates on the basis of party. However, this overlooks two very important factors that can help determine the level of vote for a candidate within an electorate. The first is that a well known sitting member can attract a higher vote than his or her party would otherwise receive. For this reason, party votes transferred in or out of an electorate may not accurately reflect the level of vote the party will receive in the new electorate. Secondly, marginal seats tend to see much more intense campaigns than safe seats. Votes transferred reflect the intensity of campaign on the old electoral boundaries, which may not be repeated in any campaign on the new boundaries. For both of these reasons, all quoted margins and percentage votes must be taken as guides only. The outcome of the next election will be determined by the candidates and parties contesting the new electorates, not past voting patterns. Reading the Tables The tables of electorate details provided in Section 3 give a complete breakdown for each new electorate, based on the 1998 election results. It includes a full listing of booths and declaration votes transferred to each new electorate. Separate sub-totals are provided for each transfer of voters from an old electorate, as well as a grand total for the new electorate. Consider the following example from the listing for Albert ALBERT 2-CANDIDATE PRIMARY VOTES VOTES ALP NAT ONP ALP NAT LIB ONP OTH Transfers from : Albert (17701 Voters) Alberton, Beenleigh (95%), Cedar Creek, Coomera (50%), Logan Village, Mt Warren Park, Ormeau, Pimpama, Upper Coomera (50%), Woongoolba, Declaration votes (52%) Votes 15414 6470 7150 0 5335 4716 0 4223 887 % 47.5 52.5 0.0 35.2 31.1 0.0 27.9 5.9 The line beginning "Transfers ..." indicates from which electorate votes have been transferred. The figure in brackets (17701) is the number of electors transferred, as provided by the Redistribution Commission. In this example, the next two lines list the names of the polling places that have been transferred from the old electorate of Albert to the new. In the case of the Coomera booth, only 50% has been transferred. The percentage of Declaration votes transferred is indicated in the same way. A separate entry is provided for each transfer of voters from an old to a new electorate, and a grand total for each new electorate is also provided. The column headed VOTES is the total votes transferred, and includes informal votes. It is NOT the sum of the formal votes on the line. Note that because of optional preferential voting, the total of the two-party preferred votes might not equal the total of the primary votes.