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CFA Institute Research Challenge CFA Institute Research Challenge Hosted by CFA Society Bangladesh Bangladesh Institute of Business Administration Bangladesh Institute of Business Administration Telecommunication sector, Mobile telecommunication services industry Dhaka Stock Exchange Grameenphone Date: November 14, 2016 Current Price: BDT 279.90 Recommendation: BUY (17.2% of total return) Ticker – DSE: GP Market Capitalization: 376,543.886 (mn) Target Price: BDT 325 Highlights Valuation Summary Weight We initiate coverage on Grameenphone Ltd. (“GP” or “the company”) – the largest mobile telecommunication service provider in Bangladesh – with a Buy Fair Value from FCFF Method 334 0.50 167 Fair Value from Relative recommendation based on a 12-month target price of BDT 325, offering 17.2% Valuation 316 0.50 158 upside from its closing price of BDT 279.90 on November 14, 2016. Our recommendation is driven by the following catalysts and critical risk factors. Intrinsic Value 325 Investment catalysts Effective corporate governance inspires confidence: GP is one of the most Key Financial Information transparent company of Bangladesh that has committed considerable resources In BDT Million 2,013 2,014 2,015 2016E 2017E 2018E to implement internationally accepted corporte standards to maintain effective Revenue 96,624 102,663 104,754 113,555 123,907 139,143 corporate governance. Revenue Growth 5% 6% 2% 8% 9% 12% Healthy free cash flow ensures value for the capital providers: GP’s dividend Net Profit 14,702 19,803 19,707 23,780 27,945 32,858 policy is to payout minimum 50% of net profit and the company has consistently EBITDA 48,538 54,553 55,971 61,774 69,016 78,198 paid dividend well above the minimum level since its enlistment into DSE. EBITDA Margin 50% 53% 53% 54% 56% 56% High stock liquidity mitigates market risks: GP’s high average daily trading Total Assets 135,221 130,673 132,450 147,132 146,628 151,768 volume would allow large investors to both buy the share at close to market price Shareholder's Equity 31,141 31,365 30,625 32,503 32,503 32,503 as well as execute stop-loss orders without creating big ripples in the market. Robust data service growth to drive solid topline growth momentum: Dividend Declared on Par Value: GP Increased internet penetration, higher utility of internet, cheaper smartphones along with a favorable youth demographic dividend in the population will bring huge boom in data revenue in the coming years. 65% Well poised to benefit from digital dividend: 98% of the country’s population 65% 50% 50% is under GP’s 3G network coverage, while the nearest competitor has around 50% 80% 140% coverage. This superior position would put GP in prime position to capitalize on 90% 90% 95% 85% 60% the impending digital dividend. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Accelereated revenue and controlled OPEX contributing to EBITDA Interim Dividend Final Dividend growth: Due to efficient control measures to manage OPEX, GP’s EBITDA margin has continued to rise stably. Critical risk factors Regulatory environment remains the largest bottleneck: Telecommunication is arguably the most regulated industry in Bangladesh. However, the regulatory environment continues to remain unpredictable and uncertain in the context of unresolved & long pending regulatory issues along with lack of government initiatives to improve the regulatory framework. Territorial market share could erode after merger of Airtel & Robi: While Airtel and Robi's merger isn't expected to have much impact on overall profitability and market share of GP, in certain areas of the country - particularly the south east region - GP's market share could be challenged. Contingent liabilities remain a risk: GP is currently involved in a number of legal proceedings, including inquiries from, or discussions with, governmental authorities. Should any of the rulings go against the company, then GP could face a substantial expenditure. Business Description Grameenphone Ltd. is a public limited company incorporated in Bangladesh in 1996 under the Companies Act 1994 and has its registered address at GP House, Bashundhara, Baridhara, Dhaka. GP was initially registered as a private limited company and subsequently converted into a public limited company on 25 June 2007. During November 2009, GP listed its shares with both Dhaka and Chittagong Stock Exchanges. Primary ownership belongs to one of the largest multinational telecommunications company: The immediate parent of GP is Telenor Mobile Communications AS with 55.8% ownership and the ultimate parent is Telenor ASA; both the companies are incorporated in Norway. The second largest shareholder is Grameen Telecom, is a not-for-profit Company, with 34.2% ownershop of GP. The rest 10% share is owned by general public & other institutions. Strong network coverage help maintain market leadership despite intense compitition: GP has the highest 2G and 3G network coverage among the mobile operators, backed by the largest spectrum capacity. This quality dimension has helped the company market leadership despite strong challenges from competitors. GP’s subscription base as well as overall market share have increased despite the initial inertia following manadatory biometric registration. We expect GP to maintain market leadership position as well as subscription base in the forecasted time period. Voice continue to be the primary source of revenue despite slow growth, but Data revenue is growing fast: Despite 10% YoY growth in subscription base and increase in AMPU, GP’s voice revenue decreased by 3.9% in 2015. But voice revenue has rebounded following the implementation of compulsory biometric registration. GP has reported a healthy YoY voice revenue growth of 6.6%. However, the primary revenue growth driver at the moment is voice revenue. GP has reported a robust 72.1% YoY data revenue growth. We project voice revenue to remain dominant in GP’s revenue pie as mobile penetration continue to rise, particularly in the rural area. Data revenue growth will also remain strong in the coming years and become increasingly prominent in GP’s revenue pie. Strategic commitment towards becoming customers’ favourite partner in digital life: In line with parent company Telenor’s global strategic shift, GP has expressed its ambition to become the foremost digital service provider in Bangladesh. GP has been investing heavily in digital services in the recent years. Its digital services portfolio includes a music streaming app GP Music, a lifestyle content app Wowbox, a video streaming service called Bioscope, three ecommerce and marketplace initiatives called kidorkar, GP shop and ekhanei.com, a digital wallet app called GPAY and a digital health service called Tonic under Telenor health. GP is focussed on adding more one-stop and simplified digital service solutions to its portfolio. GP CFO Dilip Pal outlined GP’s digital vision is to become an integral part of all facets of everyday life apart from "sleeping, eating and praying". Significant investment in network infrastructure to support strategic transformation: On its transformation journey from a voice communications Company to a digital service provider, Grameenphone has made significant investment for 3G rollout and network capacity enhancement for catering higher volume of data and voice. GP has upgraded almost all of its 10,000 base stations to support 3G services, well ahead of its competitors. Consequently, GP is in prime position to capitalze on increased rural penetration, potential 4G rollout and broader macroeconomic developments from digital dividend. Industry Overview and Competitive Positioning The mobile telecommunications market in Bangladesh will continue to experience modest growth, as Bangladesh has a large population, with steadily increasing disposable income, low fixed- line and low-data penetration rates and consistent GDP growth above the average projected growth of other developing countries. GP is the dominant market leader with highest market share: As of August 2016, the total number of mobile subscribers in Bangladesh is 117.8 million. Industry subscriber addition reduced due to initial inertia from orientation of biometric verification. Among the six different telcos operating in Bangladesh, GP tops the market with 46% subscribers. Banglalink is placed second (24.6%), Robi third (19.8%), followed by Airtel (6.7%), Teletalk (2.5%) and CityCell (0.12%). In terms of cumulative revenue (2010-15), GP is at the peak with BDT 539.2 Billion service revenues, whereas Robi has secured BDT 240.9 bn & Banglalink BDT 231.8 bn. GP drove 53.3% of the cumulative industry revenue since 2010, which is higher than Robi & Banglalink combined. We expect GP to continue its dominance as the market leader in the days to come. However, the merger of Airtel and Robi will make Robi the 2nd largest operator ahead of Banglalink. Citycell is embroiled in legal battle with the regulatory authorities to prolong its existence. As for Teletalk, the state owned operator is expected to maintain its meager growh but unlikely to become a significant player in the market. GP accounted for 94.4% of the top three players’ cumulative OCF since 2010: GP is the largest and most profitable player in the market. Since 2010, the cumulative EBITDA margin of GP is 52.3% which is far ahead of Robi (35%) & Banglalink (35.6%). In terms of liquidity, GP is far ahead of the other palyers in the market. The cumulative OCF for GP is BDT 212.2 billion whereas Robi & Banglalink has an OCF of -.6 billion and 13.3 billion respectively Robi to join GP as the second mobile operator in stock market: Recent merger announcement between Robi Axiata Ltd. and Airtel Bangladesh Ltd. will create the second largest telecom operator in Bangladesh with the resources and capabilities to challenge GP to a greater extent. They are to join the stock market in the next year which will also have a major impact. 11.785 billion BDT is to be raised by their investors as capital before they join the stock market, which will enable them to undertake new projects that will develop their network coverage & strength.
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