Ongoing Exodus: Tracking the Emigration of Christians from the Middle East by Todd M

Ongoing Exodus: Tracking the Emigration of Christians from the Middle East By Todd M. Johnson and Gina A. Zurlo ABSTRACT The proportional decline of historic Christian communities in the Middle East is continuing. Christians were 13.6 percent of the region’s population in 1910 but only 4.2 percent in 2010; by 2025, they will likely constitute 3.6 percent. While Christians in the Middle East continue to suffer from war and conflict, the expansion of Christianity to the Global South and the postcolonial break between notions of “Western” and “Christian” are positive developments for communities under siege in the region. Christians from the Middle East are now present all over the world, and Christians from the Global South are increasingly drawn to the Middle East. Some of the region’s most pressing concerns can be addressed by advocating for freedom for all religious minorities in countries experiencing high restrictions on religion. Additionally, promoting interfaith dialogue where Middle Eastern Christians are in diaspora can serve to strengthen their ties with fellow religionists in their host countries and abroad. Introduction (Iraq). After lamenting the de- In recent history, one of the most cline of Christians in Iraq and profound changes in the global surrounding countries, Patriarch religious landscape has been the Sako pleaded with Christians unrelenting proportional decline around the world not to forget the of historic Christian communities Christians of the Middle East. He in the Middle East. An impas- wrote, “The entire internation- sioned appeal for Christians in the al community should insist that region recently came from Patri- Christians remain in the Middle arch Louis Sako of the Chaldean East, not simply as minorities, but Catholic community in Babylon as citizens enjoying full equality 2013-2014 ◆ Volume III 39 under the law, and therefore in a position to continue to contribute Protestant, Orthodox, and the aim of producing the best (the Global North, which was to peace, justice, and stability.”1 Independent. It continues with a estimate for each religion in 95 percent Christian). By 2010, more focused look at Christianity every country in the world. Data the percentage of Christians Christians represented 13.6 in the Middle East over the same are sourced and available in the living in the Global North had percent of the Middle East’s period, highlighting key countries World Religion Database and World fallen to less than 40 percent, population in 1910 but only 4.2 that have experienced significant Christian Database.5 Projections with the majority of Christians percent in 2010. By 2025, we losses of Christians mainly due expect they will constitute 3.6 to war, conflict, and political By 2025, we estimate that 70 percent of all Christians will percent of the region. Their shifts.3 We consider three types diminishing presence is troubling of Christianity in the region: likely be living in the South when viewed in light of centuries historic churches (Orthodox of relative demographic stability: and Roman Catholic), modern through 2025 are built on a located in Africa, Asia, and Latin from 1500 to 1900, Christians missionary churches (Protestant hybrid model that utilizes the America. By 2025, we estimate were approximately 15 percent and Independent), and immigrant United Nations’ medium variant that 70 percent of all Christians of the region’s population.2 In churches (many traditions). cohort-component projections will likely be living in the South. addition, the Middle East is the Finally, the article concludes with of populations for five-year Between 1910 and 2010, the historic geographical origin of implications for policy—aimed periods, which are then modestly continent of Africa grew from 9.3 Christianity (as well as two other toward both Christians from the adjusted from the 2010 baseline.6 percent Christian to 48.2 percent Abrahamic faiths: Judaism and Middle East and those around Adjustments are based on analysis Christian. Asia, as a whole, also Islam). the world—in light of global of past differential growth rates saw its Christian percentage grow Over the course of the migration trends. of religious groups, factoring in from 2.4 percent to 8.3 percent.8 twentieth century, the Middle East The data presented in this historical patterns of religious In one sense, the shift to the experienced a host of dramatic article are the product of research switching and possible future Global South represents a return political and social challenges, by scholars in the developing attenuation of past trends. Finally, to the demographic makeup of including the carving up of discipline of international and most importantly for the Christianity at the time of Jesus— the region into nation-states by religious demography—the Middle East, these projections predominantly Southern—but colonial authorities, the rise scientific and statistical study of take into account how migration also depicts a vast expansion of of the Muslim Brotherhood in the demographic characteristics trends might alter the future Christianity into every country as Egypt, the emigration of colonial of religious populations, including religious composition of country well as to thousands of different expatriate communities, the their size, migration, vital statistics, populations.7 ethnicities, languages, and power of oppressive political and changes in self-identifica- cultures. regimes, and the founding of the tion.4 While there are thousands Changing Demographics of Our taxonomy of global State of Israel. At the beginning of data sources for religious Global Christianity Christianity is comprised of four of the twenty-first century, demography, three are especially Since 1910, Christians have major traditions. Roman Catholics these and other factors continue critical: first, censuses where either constituted approximately are all Christians in communion to encourage the exodus of a religion or ethnicity question one-third of the world’s with the Church of Rome, Christians from the region. is asked; second, smaller scale population. However, between including both baptized and This article will discuss the national surveys and polls; and 1910 and 2010, Christianity catechumens (potential converts demographics of Christianity third, data collected by religious experienced a profound shift in its prebaptism or young adults before around the world between 1910 communities themselves. Data geographic, ethnic, and linguistic confirmation). Orthodox refers to and 2010, including changes are analyzed, and discrepancies compositions. In 1910, more than members of the Eastern Orthodox in affiliation among the major reconciled by assessing the quality 80 percent of all Christians lived and Oriental Orthodox Churches, traditions: Roman Catholic, and congruency of sources with in Europe and Northern America both of whom consider themselves 40 Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy 2013-2014 ◆ Volume III 41 in unbroken continuity with rebound in the wake of the fall Another immigration-related wars from 1975 to 1990; and the church founded by the New of European communism, their trend in the Middle East is the third, their decreasing influence Testament apostles. Protestants comparatively low birth rates arrival of missionaries into the in national affairs.10 Losses in are Christians affiliated with the and high death rates, and the region, primarily Protestants many Christian communities historical churches originating fact that Orthodoxy tends to and Independents. Protestants were already well underway by during the sixteenth-century be a nonproselytizing tradition. began arriving at the end of the 1970, but in the case of the three Protestant Reformation in Europe Protestants also experienced nineteenth century, intending to largest Christian populations at (i.e., Anglicans, Lutherans, slight percentage losses globally, reach out to Muslims. When this the time—Egypt, Lebanon, and Reformed/Presbyterians, Baptists, falling from 24.4 percent to turned out to be more difficult Syria—their decline accelerated Congregationalists, and others). 22.2 percent of all Christians than anticipated, most turned in the late twentieth and early Independents are members of between 1910 and 2010. Their their attention to the historic twenty-first centuries. Looking churches that are separated and in share of the global population Christian communities, causing toward 2025, the Christian some way distinct from historic de- also decreased, from 8.4 percent tensions over proselytism that presence in these countries is nominationalist Christianity (i.e., to 7.3 percent. Independents continue to the present day. expected to continue declining in African Independent Churches increased their share of both the Nine Middle Eastern countries percentage (as well as, for most and Chinese House Churches).9 total Christian population and the experienced significant declines in countries, in actual population). Among the four major global population. Independents the Christian percentages of their Of particular concern currently is traditions within Christianity, represented only 1.7 percent of populations between 1910 and Syria, where the civil war has now Roman Catholics represent all Christians in 1910, rising to 2010 (see Table 1): Egypt, Iraq, forced one million refugees into just over half of all Christians 16.6 percent by 2010. Their share Iran, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, neighboring Lebanon, including worldwide, growing from 47.6 of the global population also

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