Kinematics of the Secondary Eyewall Observed in Hurricane Rita (2005)
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Estimates of Tropical Cyclone Geometry Parameters Based on Best Track Data
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-119 Preprint. Discussion started: 27 May 2019 c Author(s) 2019. CC BY 4.0 License. Estimates of tropical cyclone geometry parameters based on best track data Kees Nederhoff1, Alessio Giardino1, Maarten van Ormondt1, Deepak Vatvani1 1Deltares, Marine and Coastal Systems, Boussinesqweg 1, 2629 HV Delft, The Netherlands 5 Correspondence to: Kees Nederhoff ([email protected]) Abstract. Parametric wind profiles are commonly applied in a number of engineering applications for the generation of tropical cyclone (TC) wind and pressure fields. Nevertheless, existing formulations for computing wind fields often lack the required accuracy when the TC geometry is not known. This may affect the accuracy of the computed impacts generated by these winds. In this paper, empirical stochastic relationships are derived to describe two important parameters affecting the 10 TC geometry: radius of maximum winds (RMW) and the radius of gale force winds (∆AR35). These relationships are formulated using best track data (BTD) for all seven ocean basins (Atlantic, S/NW/NE Pacific, N/SW/SE Indian Oceans). This makes it possible to a) estimate RMW and ∆AR35 when these properties are not known and b) generate improved parametric wind fields for all oceanic basins. Validation results show how the proposed relationships allow the TC geometry to be represented with higher accuracy than when using relationships available from literature. Outer wind speeds can be 15 well reproduced by the commonly used Holland wind profile when calibrated using information either from best-track-data or from the proposed relationships. The scripts to compute the TC geometry and the outer wind speed are freely available via the following URL. -
Improvement of Wind Field Hindcasts for Tropical Cyclones
Water Science and Engineering 2016, 9(1): 58e66 HOSTED BY Available online at www.sciencedirect.com Water Science and Engineering journal homepage: http://www.waterjournal.cn Improvement of wind field hindcasts for tropical cyclones Yi Pan a,b, Yong-ping Chen a,b,*, Jiang-xia Li a,b, Xue-lin Ding a,b a State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China b College of Harbor, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China Received 16 August 2015; accepted 10 December 2015 Available online 21 February 2016 Abstract This paper presents a study on the improvement of wind field hindcasts for two typical tropical cyclones, i.e., Fanapi and Meranti, which occurred in 2010. The performance of the three existing models for the hindcasting of cyclone wind fields is first examined, and then two modification methods are proposed to improve the hindcasted results. The first one is the superposition method, which superposes the wind field calculated from the parametric cyclone model on that obtained from the cross-calibrated multi-platform (CCMP) reanalysis data. The radius used for the superposition is based on an analysis of the minimum difference between the two wind fields. The other one is the direct modification method, which directly modifies the CCMP reanalysis data according to the ratio of the measured maximum wind speed to the reanalyzed value as well as the distance from the cyclone center. Using these two methods, the problem of underestimation of strong winds in reanalysis data can be overcome. Both methods show considerable improvements in the hindcasting of tropical cyclone wind fields, compared with the cyclone wind model and the reanalysis data. -
Dependency of U.S. Hurricane Economic Loss on Maximum Wind Speed And
Dependency of U.S. Hurricane Economic Loss on Maximum Wind Speed and Storm Size Alice R. Zhai La Cañada High School, 4463 Oak Grove Drive, La Canada, CA 91011 Jonathan H. Jiang Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, 91109 Corresponding Email: [email protected] Abstract: Many empirical hurricane economic loss models consider only wind speed and neglect storm size. These models may be inadequate in accurately predicting the losses of super-sized storms, such as Hurricane Sandy in 2012. In this study, we examined the dependencies of normalized U.S. hurricane loss on both wind speed and storm size for 73 tropical cyclones that made landfall in the U.S. from 1988 to 2012. A multi-variate least squares regression is used to construct a hurricane loss model using both wind speed and size as predictors. Using maximum wind speed and size together captures more variance of losses than using wind speed or size alone. It is found that normalized hurricane loss (L) approximately follows a power law relation c a b with maximum wind speed (Vmax) and size (R). Assuming L=10 Vmax R , c being a scaling factor, the coefficients, a and b, generally range between 4-12 and 2-4, respectively. Both a and b tend to increase with stronger wind speed. For large losses, a weighted regression model, with a being 4.28 and b being 2.52, produces a reasonable fitting to the actual losses. Hurricane Sandy’s size was about 3.4 times of the average size of the 73 storms analyzed. -
Fishing Pier Design Guidance Part 1
Fishing Pier Design Guidance Part 1: Historical Pier Damage in Florida Ralph R. Clark Florida Department of Environmental Protection Bureau of Beaches and Coastal Systems May 2010 Table of Contents Foreword............................................................................................................................. i Table of Contents ............................................................................................................... ii Chapter 1 – Introduction................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 2 – Ocean and Gulf Pier Damages in Florida................................................... 4 Chapter 3 – Three Major Hurricanes of the Late 1970’s............................................... 6 September 23, 1975 – Hurricane Eloise ...................................................................... 6 September 3, 1979 – Hurricane David ........................................................................ 6 September 13, 1979 – Hurricane Frederic.................................................................. 7 Chapter 4 – Two Hurricanes and Four Storms of the 1980’s........................................ 8 June 18, 1982 – No Name Storm.................................................................................. 8 November 21-24, 1984 – Thanksgiving Storm............................................................ 8 August 30-September 1, 1985 – Hurricane Elena ...................................................... 9 October 31, -
Chapter 2.1.3, Has Both Unique and Common Features That Relate to TC Internal Structure, Motion, Forecast Difficulty, Frequency, Intensity, Energy, Intensity, Etc
Chapter Two Charles J. Neumann USNR (Retired) U, S. National Hurricane Center Science Applications International Corporation 2. A Global Tropical Cyclone Climatology 2.1 Introduction and purpose Globally, seven tropical cyclone (TC) basins, four in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and three in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) can be identified (see Table 1.1). Collectively, these basins annually observe approximately eighty to ninety TCs with maximum winds 63 km h-1 (34 kts). On the average, over half of these TCs (56%) reach or surpass the hurricane/ typhoon/ cyclone surface wind threshold of 118 km h-1 (64 kts). Basin TC activity shows wide variation, the most active being the western North Pacific, with about 30% of the global total, while the North Indian is the least active with about 6%. (These data are based on 1-minute wind averaging. For comparable figures based on 10-minute averaging, see Table 2.6.) Table 2.1. Recommended intensity terminology for WMO groups. Some Panel Countries use somewhat different terminology (WMO 2008b). Western N. Pacific terminology used by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is also shown. Over the years, many countries subject to these TC events have nurtured the development of government, military, religious and other private groups to study TC structure, to predict future motion/intensity and to mitigate TC effects. As would be expected, these mostly independent efforts have evolved into many different TC related global practices. These would include different observational and forecast procedures, TC terminology, documentation, wind measurement, formats, units of measurement, dissemination, wind/ pressure relationships, etc. Coupled with data uncertainties, these differences confound the task of preparing a global climatology. -
Calculating Tropical Cyclone Critical Wind RADII and Storm Size Using NSCAT Winds
Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 1998-03 Calculating tropical cyclone critical wind RADII and storm size using NSCAT winds Magnan, Scott G. Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/8044 'HUUU But 3ADU; NK fCK^943-5101 DUDLEY KNOX LIBRARY NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL M0N7TOEY CA 93943-5101 MOX LIBRA ~H0OL Y CA9394^.01 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California THESIS CALCULATING TROPICAL CYCLONE CRITICAL WIND RADII AND STORM SIZE USING NSCAT WINDS by Scott G. Magnan March, 1998 Thesis Advisor: Russell L. Elsberry Thesis Co-Advisor: Lester E. Carr, HI Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. 93943-Si MONTEREY CA REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1 . AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED March, 1998. Master's Thesis 4. TTTLE AND SUBTITLE CALCULATING TROPICAL CYCLONE FUNDING NUMBERS CRITICAL WIND RADII AND STORM SIZE USING NSCAT WINDS 6. AUTHOR(S) Scott G. Magnan 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION Monterey CA 93943-5000 REPORT NUMBER 9. -
Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms
FLORIDA HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORMS 1871-1995: An Historical Survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams '+wcCopy~~ I~BN 0-912747-08-0 Florida SeaGrant College is supported by award of the Office of Sea Grant, NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce,grant number NA 36RG-0070, under provisions of the NationalSea Grant College and Programs Act of 1966. This information is published by the Sea Grant Extension Program which functionsas a coinponentof the Florida Cooperative Extension Service, John T. Woeste, Dean, in conducting Cooperative Extensionwork in Agriculture, Home Economics, and Marine Sciences,State of Florida, U.S. Departmentof Agriculture, U.S. Departmentof Commerce, and Boards of County Commissioners, cooperating.Printed and distributed in furtherance af the Actsof Congressof May 8 andJune 14, 1914.The Florida Sea Grant Collegeis an Equal Opportunity-AffirmativeAction employer authorizedto provide research, educational information and other servicesonly to individuals and institutions that function without regardto race,color, sex, age,handicap or nationalorigin. Coverphoto: Hank Brandli & Rob Downey LOANCOPY ONLY Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms 1871-1995: An Historical survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams Division of Marine and Environmental Systems, Florida Institute of Technology Melbourne, FL 32901 Technical Paper - 71 June 1994 $5.00 Copies may be obtained from: Florida Sea Grant College Program University of Florida Building 803 P.O. Box 110409 Gainesville, FL 32611-0409 904-392-2801 II Our friend andcolleague, Fred Doehringpictured below, died on January 5, 1993, before this manuscript was completed. Until his death, Fred had spent the last 18 months painstakingly researchingdata for this book. -
Appendix 8 Hazard Analysis
Appendix 8 Hazard Analysis Introduction This appendix includes several components. First is an overall discussion of the Hazard Analysis modeling effort, describing the surge (ADCIRC) and wave (WAM, STWAVE) modeling. That first section is followed by a subsidiary section labeled Appendix 8-1 that defines the many acronyms used in the modeling discussion. This is followed by a major section labeled Appendix 8-2 consisting of the Whitepaper of Donald T. Resio, ERDC-CHL, which forms the basis of the storm statistics and JPM methods discussed in the main body of the report. Owing to its prominence in the discussion, it has, for convenience, been referred to as R2007. Note that R2007, itself, includes several appendices; these are identified as Appendices A-G within Appendix 8-2. Finally, a discussion of the rainfall model is included here as Appendix 8-3. Hazard Analysis The hazard analysis required for the risk assessment was based upon the hurricane modeling conducted by a team of Corps of Engineers, FEMA, NOAA, private sector and academic researchers working toward the definition of a new system for estimating hurricane surges and waves. Following is a discussion of the processes used by this team and the steps taken by the risk team to incorporate the results into the risk analysis. The hurricane hazard definition required as input to the risk analysis involved several steps: 1. Selection of the methodology to be used for estimating surges and waves 2. Determination of hurricane probabilities 3. Production of the ADCIRC grid models for the different HPS configurations. 4. Production of the computer system for development of the large number of hydrographs required by the risk model. -
A Climatology of Tropical Cyclone Size in the Western North Pacific Using an Alternative Metric Thomas B
Florida State University Libraries Electronic Theses, Treatises and Dissertations The Graduate School 2017 A Climatology of Tropical Cyclone Size in the Western North Pacific Using an Alternative Metric Thomas B. (Thomas Brian) McKenzie III Follow this and additional works at the DigiNole: FSU's Digital Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected] FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF ARTS AND SCIENCES A CLIMATOLOGY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE SIZE IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC USING AN ALTERNATIVE METRIC By THOMAS B. MCKENZIE III A Thesis submitted to the Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science 2017 Copyright © 2017 Thomas B. McKenzie III. All Rights Reserved. Thomas B. McKenzie III defended this thesis on March 23, 2017. The members of the supervisory committee were: Robert E. Hart Professor Directing Thesis Vasubandhu Misra Committee Member Jeffrey M. Chagnon Committee Member The Graduate School has verified and approved the above-named committee members, and certifies that the thesis has been approved in accordance with university requirements. ii To Mom and Dad, for all that you’ve done for me. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I extend my sincere appreciation to Dr. Robert E. Hart for his mentorship and guidance as my graduate advisor, as well as for initially enlisting me as his graduate student. It was a true honor working under his supervision. I would also like to thank my committee members, Dr. Vasubandhu Misra and Dr. Jeffrey L. Chagnon, for their collaboration and as representatives of the thesis process. Additionally, I thank the Civilian Institution Programs at the Air Force Institute of Technology for the opportunity to earn my Master of Science degree at Florida State University, and to the USAF’s 17th Operational Weather Squadron at Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam, HI for sponsoring my graduate program and providing helpful feedback on the research. -
Maximum Wind Radius Estimated by the 50 Kt Radius: Improvement of Storm Surge Forecasting Over the Western North Pacific
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 705–717, 2016 www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/16/705/2016/ doi:10.5194/nhess-16-705-2016 © Author(s) 2016. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Maximum wind radius estimated by the 50 kt radius: improvement of storm surge forecasting over the western North Pacific Hiroshi Takagi and Wenjie Wu Tokyo Institute of Technology, Graduate School of Science and Engineering, 2-12-1 Ookayama, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 152-8550, Japan Correspondence to: Hiroshi Takagi ([email protected]) Received: 8 September 2015 – Published in Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.: 27 October 2015 Revised: 18 February 2016 – Accepted: 24 February 2016 – Published: 11 March 2016 Abstract. Even though the maximum wind radius (Rmax) countries such as Japan, China, Taiwan, the Philippines, and is an important parameter in determining the intensity and Vietnam. size of tropical cyclones, it has been overlooked in previous storm surge studies. This study reviews the existing estima- tion methods for Rmax based on central pressure or maximum wind speed. These over- or underestimate Rmax because of 1 Introduction substantial variations in the data, although an average radius can be estimated with moderate accuracy. As an alternative, The maximum wind radius (Rmax) is one of the predominant we propose an Rmax estimation method based on the radius of parameters for the estimation of storm surges and is defined the 50 kt wind (R50). Data obtained by a meteorological sta- as the distance from the storm center to the region of maxi- tion network in the Japanese archipelago during the passage mum wind speed. -
FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER by DAY (To 1994) OCTOBER 1 1969
FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER BY DAY (to 1994) OCTOBER 1 1969 - 1730 - Clay Co., Orange Park - Lightning killed a construction worker who was working on a bridge. A subtropical storm spawned one weak tornado and several waterspouts in Franklin Co. in the morning. 2 195l - south Florida - The center of a Tropical Storm crossed Florida from near Fort Myers to Vero Beach. Rainfall totals ranged from eight to 13 inches along the track, but no strong winds occurred near the center. The strong winds of 50 to 60 mph were all in squalls along the lower east coast and Keys, causing minor property damage. Greatest damage was from rains that flooded farms and pasture lands over a broad belt extending from Naples, Fort Myers, and Punta Gorda on the west coast to Stuart, Fort Pierce, and Vero Beach on the east. Early fall crops flooded out in rich Okeechobee farming area. Many cattle had to be moved out of flooded area, and quite a few were lost by drowning or starvation. Roadways damaged and several bridges washed out. 2-4 1994 - northwest Florida - Flood/Coastal Flood - The remnants of Tropical Depression 10 moved from the northeast Gulf of Mexico, across the Florida Panhandle, and into Georgia on the 2nd. High winds produced rough seas along west central and northwest Florida coasts causing minor tidal flooding and beach erosion. Eighteen people had to be rescued from sinking boats in the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rains in the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle accompanied the system causing extensive flooding to roadways, creeks and low lying areas and minor flooding of rivers. -
Hurricane Sea Surface Inflow Angle and an Observation-Based
NOVEMBER 2012 Z H A N G A N D U H L H O R N 3587 Hurricane Sea Surface Inflow Angle and an Observation-Based Parametric Model JUN A. ZHANG Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, and NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida ERIC W. UHLHORN NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 22 November 2011, in final form 2 May 2012) ABSTRACT This study presents an analysis of near-surface (10 m) inflow angles using wind vector data from over 1600 quality-controlled global positioning system dropwindsondes deployed by aircraft on 187 flights into 18 hurricanes. The mean inflow angle in hurricanes is found to be 222.6862.28 (95% confidence). Composite analysis results indicate little dependence of storm-relative axisymmetric inflow angle on local surface wind speed, and a weak but statistically significant dependence on the radial distance from the storm center. A small, but statistically significant dependence of the axisymmetric inflow angle on storm intensity is also found, especially well outside the eyewall. By compositing observations according to radial and azimuthal location relative to storm motion direction, significant inflow angle asymmetries are found to depend on storm motion speed, although a large amount of unexplained variability remains. Generally, the largest storm- 2 relative inflow angles (,2508) are found in the fastest-moving storms (.8ms 1) at large radii (.8 times the radius of maximum wind) in the right-front storm quadrant, while the smallest inflow angles (.2108) are found in the fastest-moving storms in the left-rear quadrant.