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Regina Romero Confidential Research Summary

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Regina Romero Confidential Research Summary 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. “WHAT’S WRONG WITH TUCSON (pages 3 – 9) II. SHIRLEY SCOTT (1995 – PRESENT) (pages 10 – 22) III. REGINA ROMERO (2007 – PRESENT) (pages 23 – 35) IV. PAUL CUNNINGHAM (2010 – PRESENT) (pages 36 - 44) 2 WHAT’S WRONG WITH TUCSON? For decades, Tucson has languished under incompetent government and has been stagnant in some areas, while declining in others. When compared with the growth and success of Phoenix, people are wondering why their city comes up short in comparison with the bigger city in Arizona, and why growth isn’t happening in Tucson compared to other areas of Arizona. This document shows trends in various categories, such as population growth, crime, taxes, and others. POPULATION GROWTH Tucson had 526,116 in population as of July 1, 2013 (Estimate from the US Census Bureau, http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml? src=bkmk) Tucson had a population of 488,108 in 2000 (http://censusviewer.com/city/AZ/Tucson), a growth of 7.8% in 13 years. o During this same time, Phoenix has grown by 14.6%, almost double the rate of Tucson. (http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.x html?src=bkmk, 2000 population of 1,321,045; http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/04/0455000.html, 2013 population of 1,513, 367) 3 GROWTH IN NUMBER OF PEOPLE ON DISABILITY AND WELFARE While Tucson has only grown by 7.8% in 13 years, the growth of people ages 18- 64 on disability has grown from 8,859 in December 2000 (http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/statcomps/ssi_sc/2000/az.pdf) to 12,363 in December 2013 (http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/statcomps/ssi_sc/2013/az.html), a 40% increase, more than 5 TIMES the growth of population. The proportion of people on SNAP benefits (food stamps, WIC, etc.) in Pima County has grown by 198% from 2000 to 2013. (http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/map_of_the_week/2013/04 /food_stamp_recipients_by_county_an_interactive_tool_showing_local_snap _data.html) LAGGING ECONOMIC INDICATORS According to Forbes magazine, Tucson is the WORST place to look for a job among major metro areas for Summer 2015. (http://www.forbes.com/pictures/gklg45fj/no-1-tucson-arizona/) The poverty rate nationwide in 2013, the latest the Census Bureau has data, is 14.5% (http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty/about/overview/) In Tucson, the poverty rate is 25.2%, 74% higher than the national average. This is in comparison to the Phoenix area, which has a 17.6% poverty rate, 30.2% lower than Tucson. (http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/phoenix/2014/09/19/phoenix- among-highest-poverty-rates-for-metro-areas-in-us/15851529/, 9/19/2014) The median household income nationwide is $53,046.00 for 2013 (http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml? pid=ACS_13_5YR_DP03&src=pt). The median household income in Tucson for 2013 is $37,032.00, 30% lower than the national average. 4 Fitch Ratings, a nationally known company that assigns ratings for bonds issued by corporations and governments, assigned a NEGATIVE outlook for the City of Tucson’s bonds and downgraded a series of ratings for bonds issued by the City of Tucson due to economic conditions and increased government spending (http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20150520006286/en/Fitch- Downgrades-Tucson-AZ-GOs-COPs-Outlook#.VWDEUflViko, 5/20/2015) : o $20 million general obligation (GO) bonds, series 2012-C (2015) 'AA o $36.6 million general obligation refunding bonds, series 2015 'AA-' o $20.7 million certificates of participation (COPs), refunding series 2015 'A+'. In addition, Fitch downgrades the following ratings: o $214.8 million GO bonds outstanding (pre-refunding) to 'AA-' from 'AA' o $259.2 million COPs outstanding (pre-refunding) to 'A+' from 'AA-' o $11 million Rio Nuevo Multipurpose Facilities District (MFD) COPs (City of Tucson Convention Center Expansion Project), series 2009 to 'A' from 'A+' o This ratings downgrade is at the same time that the rating for the State of Arizona government has INCREASED during the same month. (http://tucson.com/business/local/arizona-gets-credit- upgrade/article_4a1206f8-8027-5084-afa9-fa2a23733010.html, 5/5/2015) Jobs in construction has gone down in Tucson from 28,800 in October 2006 to only 15,000 in March 2015, a 47.9% drop. (http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/SMU04460602000000001?data_tool=XGtable) Jobs in manufacturing has gone down in Tucson from 28,500 in July 2006 to 22,700 in March 2015, a 16.8% drop. (http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/SMU04460603000000001?data_tool=XGtable) Jobs in the information sector, such as computer programmers and similar positions, has declined in Tucson from 7,600 in February 2006 to 4,200 in March 2015, a 44.7% drop. (http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/SMU04460605000000001?data_tool=XGtable) While the other side may talk about the unemployment dropping to 4.9% in March 2015 from a high of 10.1% in January 2010, the number of the people in the labor force in Tucson has declined from 489,213 in August 2009 to 469,004 in March 2015, a 20,209 drop. (http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LAUMT044606000000006? data_tool=XGtable) If the same number of people were in the workforce as in August 2009, the unemployment rate would be 9.2% right now. It is likely that many of the people no longer in the workforce are on disability due to discouragement in being able to find a decent job. 5 Earnings in Tucson as of May 2014 is 10% below the national average; with the average person in Tucson making $20.45/hour, compared to the national average of $22.71/hour. (http://www.bls.gov/regions/west/news- release/occupationalemploymentandwages_tucson.htm) The social network WalletHub did a survery of the 150 largest metro areas nationwide, and they found Tucson the 8th worst place to look for a job in 2015. (http://www.wildcat.arizona.edu/article/2015/01/lack-of-jobs-hurts- tucsons-reputation) CBS News finds Tucson to be the 5th poorest city in the nation. Tucson is even poorer than Baltimore. (http://www.cbsnews.com/media/americas-11- poorest-cities/8/, 2/18/2015; http://www.ywcatucson.org/site/c.elLYJiOZKqLcG/b.9257737/k.5D1D/Women _Out_Of_Poverty_Initiative.htm) 34.8% of people have an income under $25,000.00/year According to a Harvard University study, Pima County is worse than 95% of counties in the United States when it comes to poor children being able to rise up out of poverty. (http://www.insidetucsonbusiness.com/business_chatter/harvard-university- poor-children-pay-big-price-for-sluggish-pima/article_e62fc700-f8c5-11e4- 8784-6fb6c4a18fd4.html, 5/15/2015) 6 WASTEFUL SPENDING 1. While pensions in Tucson are only being funded at 40% of what is needed to have them fully funded (http://psprswrongs.com/2015/03/06/tucson-leaders-worry- about-ballooning-public-safety-pension-costs/, 3/6/2015), the City has proposed a Fiscal Year 2016 budget that is 8.1% higher than FY 2015, a $103 million increase. (http://www.tucsonnewsnow.com/story/28986284/city-council-holds- public-hearing-on-2016-budget, 5/20/2015) 2. This same proposed budget is proposing on increasing city property taxes by 9.3% (http://www.tucsonaz.gov/files/budget/16Book-Op_1.pdf, page 13) 3. The City of Tucson spends a. Vacation time for Cesar Chavez Day (Page 14 of FY 2016 proposed budget) b. An increase of $97,520.00 for the Mayor and city council people (http://www.tucsonaz.gov/files/budget/16Book-Op_1.pdf, page 76) c. An increase of $768,840.00 for the city convention center (Page 76 of proposed 2016 budget) Total amount coming from General Revenue to fund the convention center is $4.2 million (Page 250 of proposed 2016 budget) d. $7.6 million for golf courses (Page 76 of proposed 2016 budget) e. $2.5 million for a 43 person department for just the Mayor and City Councilpeople (Page 78 of proposed 2016 budget) f. $510,800.00 on state and federal lobbyists (Page 123 of proposed 2016 budget) g. 6 full time employees are designated for “medical leave management”. (http://www.tucsonaz.gov/files/budget/16Book-Op_1.pdf, Page 170) h. $1.9 million and 16 employees for a division called “Integrated Planning”. This amount has grown from just over $1 million, by almost 90%, since FY 2014. (Page 186 of proposed 2016 budget) 7 i. $1.36 million in general revenue funding for the Reid Park Zoo. (Page 201 of Proposed 2016 budget) j. $5.7 million/year for a streetcar program, Sun Link, for a 4 mile stretch of rail. (Page 234 of Proposed 2016 budget) k. An $880,000.00 increase in graffitti abatement, more than doubling the amount from FY 2015. (Page 229 of Proposed 2016 budget) l. $19.5 million for “non-departmental services” (Page 294 of Proposed 2016 budget) m. An increase of $100,000.00 for the Tucson Gem Show (Page 295 of Proposed 2016 budget) n. $350,000 for the Tucson-Pima County Arts Council (Page 297 of Proposed 2016 budget) CRIME IN TUCSON 1. The crime rate, while dropping in some areas like homicide and robbery, has grown in other areas, such as: a. Sexual assault (rate has gone up from 29 per 100,000 people in 2010 to 41 in 2013, a 41.4% increase (http://www.tucsonaz.gov/files/police/allgraphs_13rate.pdf, page 2) b. Larceny (rate has gone up from 3,347 per 100,000 people in 2009 to 5,230 in 2013, a 56.3% increase, http://www.tucsonaz.gov/files/police/allgraphs_13rate.pdf, page 6) c.
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