A Short History of Dynamic Business Informatics Diver BI Group & Dimensional Insight a Global Collaborative Network with Years of Experience
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Is Japan 'Back'?
IS JAPAN ‘BACK’? Japan Society of Northern California/Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, May 9th 2013 SOME PRELMINARY OBSERVATIONS SOME PRELMINARY “It is the one sphere of life and activity where victory, security and success is always to the minority and never to the majority. When you find any one agreeing with you, change your mind.” Keynes, speaking of Investment, 1937 5/8/2013 2 SUMMARY o Causes of Japan’s “Lost Decades” o First – Strategic irrelevance post-1989 o Second – early ‘90s headwinds strong in proportion to the size of the bubble o Third - 1997-2012- persistent macro-economic policy mistakes. o No insuperable “structural problems o Last headwinds dropped to nothing in 2009 o Senkaku spat marks Japan’s recovery of a strategic role o “Abe-nomics” represents reversal of the mistakes of 1997-2012 o Anyway, monetary policy has actually been loose since 3/11 o Deflation may already be over o PM Abe may just be “in the right place at the right time” o Both the initial, long period of error and its reversal echo the ‘30s. 5/8/2013 3 WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED? Is Real Life lived in Real or Nominal Numbers? Year Nominal GDP Population Nominal GDP/head Real GDP Real GDP/head (Y mil) (Thou) (Y mil) (Y mil) (Y mil) 1995 501,707 125,570 4.00 455,460 3.63 2000 509,860 126,926 4.02 474,847 3.74 2005 503,903 127,768 3.94 503,921 3.94 2010 482,384 128,057 3.77 512,364 4.00 2011 470,623 127,799 3.68 509,450 3.99 Period Nominal GDP per Capita Real GDP per Capita Change 1995-2011 -7.8% 9.9% 2000-2011 -8.3% 6.6% Note: GDP for Fiscal Years, Seasonally -
October 19, 1987 – Black Monday, 20 Years Later BACKGROUND
October 19, 1987 – Black Monday, 20 Years Later BACKGROUND On Oct. 19, 1987, “Black Monday,” the DJIA fell 507.99 (508) points to 1,738.74, a drop of 22.6% or $500 billion dollars of its value-- the largest single-day percentage drop in history. Volume surges to a then record of 604 million shares. Two days later, the DJIA recovered 289 points or 16.6% of its loss. It took two years for the DJIA to fully recover its losses, setting the stage for the longest bull market in U.S. history. Date Close Change Change % 10/19/87 1,738.70 -508.00 -22.6 10/20/87 1,841.00 102.30 5.9 10/21/87 2,027.90 186.90 10.2 Quick Facts on October 11, 1987 • DJIA fell 507.99 points to 1,738.74, a 22.6% drop (DJIA had opened at 2246.74 that day) o Record decline at that time o Friday, Oct. 16, DJIA fell 108 points, completing a 9.5 percent drop for the week o Aug. 1987, DJIA reached 2722.42, an all-time high; up 48% over prior 10 months o Today, DJIA above 14,000 • John Phelan, NYSE Chairman/CEO -- Credited with effective management of the crisis. A 23-year veteran of the trading floor, he became NYSE president in 1980 and chairman and chief executive officer in 1984, serving until 1990 NYSE Statistics (1987, then vs. now) 1987 Today (and current records) ADV - ytd 1987 (thru 10/19): 181.5 mil ADV – 1.76 billion shares (NYSE only) shares 10/19/1987: 604.3 million shares (reference ADV above) 10/20/1987: 608.1* million shares (reference ADV above) Oct. -
Steve Fossett
2 0 1 7 Steve Fossett Steve Fossett was an American entrepreneur and traveler best known for circumnavigating the world in a Roziere balloon in 2002. “A Rozière balloon (or simply Rozière) is a type of hybrid balloon that has separate chambers for a non-heated lifting gas (such as hydrogen or helium) as well as for a heated lifting gas (as used in a hot air balloon or Montgolfière). The design was created by Jean-François Pilâtre de Rozier (1754..1785).” He was an American busi- nessman and a record-setting aviator, sailor, and adventurer. He was the first person to fly solo nonstop around the world in a balloon. He made his fortune in the financial services industry and was best known for many world rec- ords, including five nonstop circumnavigations of the Earth: as a long-distance solo balloonist, as a sailor, and as a solo flight fixed-wing aircraft pilot. He was born in Jackson, Tennessee and grew up in Garden Grove, California, where he graduated from Garden Grove High School. His interest in adventure began early. As a Boy Scout, he grew up climbing the mountains of California, beginning with the San Jacinto Mountains."When I was 12 years old I climbed my first mountain, and I just kept going, taking on more diverse and grander projects." He did not have a natural gift for athletics or team sports, so he focused on activities that required persistence and endurance. His father, an Eagle Scout, encouraged him to pursue these types of adventures and encouraged him to become involved with the Boy Scouts early. -
Fossett Search Members Contribute Expertise State of the Wing Parris, Keilholtz, Prusak
Winter 2008 The Official Magazine of California Wing Civil Air Patrol Fossett Search Members contribute expertise State of the Wing Parris, Keilholtz, Prusak Reprinted from CAP News Online Calif. Wing Members Handle Phase of Steve Fossett Search Eagle Call is an authorized publication serving the interests of the California Wing of the United States Searchers operate from Air Force Auxiliary Civil Air Patrol. A private firm that is not connected with the Department of the Air Force Bishop, Calif., base or with the Civil Air Patrol Corporation publishes it. September 11, 2007 The appearance of advertisements in this publication, including supplements and inserts, does not constitute Photos by Lt. Col. John C. Jay an endorsement by the U.S. Air Force or CAP of the products and services advertised herein. (Clockwise, from top): A California Wing member inspects a map of the search Eagle Call encourages contributions from all CAP area. members, military personnel, and related agencies. Capt. Frank Duarte of San Jose Senior Squadron 80 Material must be original, free of copyright constraint, operates the California Wing fly-away radio kit. unpublished, and submitted only to Eagle Call, which Lt. Col. Joseph Chizmadia of Los Angeles County Group 1 reserves the right to approve, reject, edit, abridge or conducts a base briefing at 6 a.m. Sept. 11. expand any submission. Features must be discussed in Lt. Col. Bill Gordon of San Jose Senior Squadron advance with the Editor, Capt. Greg Solman, at 909- 87 conducts a flight crew briefing of Maj. Charles Russell, 338-5789. mission pilot, and Sr. -
Nick Saum LTA Resume
Nicholas M. Saum, PhD Inducted into the U.S. Ballooning Hall of Fame on July 28, 2019 By the Balloon Federation of America at the National Balloon Museum in Indianola, Iowa Nicholas M. Saum, PhD, contributed selflessly to the field of aviation, and aerostation in particular, over the course of a long and colorful career. He set dozens of World and National Records in Altitude, Distance and Duration in a rozier balloon he built himself. He authored the Propane and Fuel Management handbook for the BFA, and contributed to the Balloon Flying Handbook published by the FAA. He served on the launch teams of many of Steve Fossett’s circumglobal balloon attempts, as the crew chief and launch director for the German team on the Chrysler TransAtlantic balloon race, and on Kevin Uliassi’s J. Renee 1 circumglobal attempts. He taught many students how to fly both hot air and gas balloons, and served as an FAA Designated Examiner for balloons. While Nick prided himself on his irascible manner, he was the first to step up to service, to support fellow aeronauts, to research, experiment and publish in the field of safety, and to lend his considerable intellectual prowess to the growing body of knowledge in our sport. As a young man, Nick loved to hunt pheasants and shoot skeet. He regularly participated in fox hunts, and enjoyed riding horses. He enjoyed roller skating, entering dance competitions, and tinkering with carts. After teaching himself Morse Code, Nick obtained a job with the Illinois Central Railroad. Later, in the US Army, he served as a Morse Code Interceptor in Okinawa. -
Regime Change Q2 2018 COMMENTARY
Chief Market Strategist, Dr. Quincy Krosby Prudential Financial Regime Change Q2 2018 COMMENTARY The second quarter— Highlights which statistically • Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell takes the helm is not the most • A brief history of recent regime changes at the Federal Reserve • The market enters a period of crosscurrents hospitable in terms of returns—should enjoy Q2 OPENING BELL solid growth here The term “regime change” is currently trending in the headlines, from “More expect Venezuela will collapse and have regime change within 12 months” to “Pushing back against Iran: Is it time and abroad; solid, if for regime change?” As we enter the second quarter of 2018, however, the term is increasingly not stellar, earnings; used to describe a subtle but equally important shift in economic policy. Monetary policy stands out as a significant economic catalyst, and with the departure of Federal Reserve Chair Janet the fiscal stimulus Yellen, we’ve seen headlines blare: “How to survive the regime change in markets.” beginning to filter into Referring to February’s market correction, triggered by fears that inflation was beginning to assert itself, the Financial Times succinctly stated: “Whether correction turns into regime the real economy; and change is down to the Fed.” But do members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) a Federal Reserve of the Federal Reserve view their job as protectors of stock market performance, the way they seemingly did coming out of the financial crisis? that wants to maintain Newly installed Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, greeted on his first official day with a 4 percent the “middle ground” market sell-off, appeared upbeat about prospects for the economy. -
ANNUAL REPORT Denver, CO 80230 Englewood, CO 80112 Wingsmuseum.Org Explorationofflight.Org TABLE of CONTENTS
AIR & SPACE MUSEUM EXPLORATION OF FLIGHT 20 9 7711 E. Academy Blvd 13005 Wings Way ANNUAL REPORT Denver, CO 80230 Englewood, CO 80112 WingsMuseum.org ExplorationOfFlight.org TABLE OF CONTENTS Letter from the President . 3 2019 Highlights . 4 — Admissions, Membership and Volunteers . 5 — Curator’s Corner . 5 — Education . 6 — Museum Events . 7 — Apollopalooza . 8 — Exploration of Flight . 9 — Financials . 10 -11 — Donors . 12-13 — Exhibits . 14 — Board of Directors and Staff . 15 Contact Us . 16 WINGS OVER THE ROCKIES’ MISSION IS TO EDUCATE AND INSPIRE PEOPLE OF ALL AGES ABOUT AVIATION AND SPACE ENDEAVORS OF THE PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE. 2 LETTER FROM THE PRESIDENT Dear Friends, Donors, Members, and Volunteers of Wings Over the Rockies: It is my pleasure to share with you our 2019 Annual Report . I am proud to lead this great organization to deliver its mission to “educate and inspire people of all ages about aviation and space endeavors of the past, present and future ”. This year, as always, I am thrilled to share the great news of our achievements and impact . 2019 marks the third year in a row of incredible growth for Colorado’s Official Air & Space Museum. From increasing attendance 22% since 2018; to hosting eight days of Apollopalooza celebrations honoring the Apollo 11 moon landing; to bringing Behind the Wings to 6 7. MILLION viewers online and countless more in homes in 19 states and 44 PBS markets, Wings delivers the most exciting opportunities to enjoy and engage in aerospace . Last year, our Lowry hangar welcomed legends Apollo 11 Director Gene Kranz and Astronaut and Senator Harrison Schmitt, in addition to hosting the 2019 National Aviation Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony . -
EOM Timeline
LRS OUTPUT MANAGEMENT TIMELINE NOW LRS introduces MFPSecure and MobileConnector Barack Obama elected to second term as US President 2013 LRS acquires Capella Technologies Two bombs explode during Boston Marathon LRS opens office in Paris, France LRS introduces PageCenterX Apple introduces the iPhone LRS achieves Partnership Certification 2007 World’s largest passenger ship, Liberty of the Seas from SAP goes into service The Superjumbo jet aircraft Airbus A380 makes its first flight from Toulouse, France 2005 LRS opens offices in Singapore Disneyland celebrates 50th anniversary LRS introduces VPSX WWII Memorial opens in Washington DC LRS opens offices in Hartford, CT, Irvine, CA, 2004 Vatican City gains full membership right to and Atlanta, GA the United Nations Steve Fossett becomes the first person to fly solo around the world nonstop in a balloon 2002 LRS introduces VMCF/WebAccess Odyssey finds signs of water ice deposits on planet Mars LRS opens office in Australia The Euro currency is introduced in the European Union LRS introduces VPS/Email 1999 Human population of the world surpasses six billion Search engine Google is founded LRS introduces AnyQueue Novel Harry Potter and Sorcerer’s Stone released in US 1998 Japanese train builders (Maglev) claim world speed record at 332 MPH LRS introduces PageCenter 1997 Scotland scientists reveal the first successful cloning of an adult mammal, a sheep named Dolly Comet Hale-Bopp is discovered and becomes visible to the naked eye nearly a year later. 1995 LRS introduces DRS/TCPIP JavaScript first introduced -
The Federal Reserve's Response to the 1987 Market Crash
PRELIMINARY YPFS DISCUSSION DRAFT | MARCH 2020 The Federal Reserve’s Response to the 1987 Market Crash Kaleb B Nygaard1 March 20, 2020 Abstract The S&P500 lost 10% the week ending Friday, October 16, 1987 and lost an additional 20% the following Monday, October 19, 1987. The date would be remembered as Black Monday. The Federal Reserve responded to the crash in four distinct ways: (1) issuing a public statement promising to provide liquidity as needed, “to support the economic and financial system,” (2) providing support to the Treasury Securities market by injecting in-high- demand maturities into the market via reverse repurchase agreements, (3) allowing the Federal Funds Rate to fall from 7.5% to 7.0%, and (4) intervening directly to allow the rescue of the largest options clearing firm in Chicago. Keywords: Federal Reserve, stock market crash, 1987, Black Monday, market liquidity 1 Research Associate, New Bagehot Project. Yale Program on Financial Stability. [email protected]. PRELIMINARY YPFS DISCUSSION DRAFT | MARCH 2020 The Federal Reserve’s Response to the 1987 Market Crash At a Glance Summary of Key Terms The S&P500 lost 10% the week ending Friday, Purpose: The measure had the “aim of ensuring October 16, 1987 and lost an additional 20% the stability in financial markets as well as facilitating following Monday, October 19, 1987. The date would corporate financing by conducting appropriate be remembered as Black Monday. money market operations.” Introduction Date October 19, 1987 The Federal Reserve responded to the crash in four Operational Date Tuesday, October 20, 1987 distinct ways: (1) issuing a public statement promising to provide liquidity as needed, “to support the economic and financial system,” (2) providing support to the Treasury Securities market by injecting in-high-demand maturities into the market via reverse repurchase agreements, (3) allowing the Federal Funds Rate to fall from 7.5% to 7.0%, and (4) intervening directly to allow the rescue of the largest options clearing firm in Chicago. -
Greetings Members and Friends of EAA Chapter 866, One COOL
August 2016 Submittal Greetings Members and Friends of EAA Chapter 866, Ahoy All Aviation Aficionados! The Arrival of August brings An Abundance of Aeronautical And Aerospace News to Alliterate About! One COOL Presentation If you missed the July chapter meeting last month, you missed a wonderful treat! Our guest speaker, Don Wilson, shared some fascinating inside stories about his tenure as Crew Chief on Air Force One!! He spoke and answered questions for more than an hour and everyone seemed eager to hear more! PLUS, thanks to our newly installed Air Conditioning unit with its “whisper quiet mode”, not only did our guest speaker regale us with great stories, but we could actually hear them too!! Hopefully, we can get Mr. Wilson to return soon for an encore presentation. Convention:EAA Annual Actually, there were at least THREE different week-long “Conventions” held this past month. TWO of them involved a lot of fancy speaking, but only ONE of them involved a lot of Fancy Flying!! You can decide for yourself which convention was the best, I’ve got my mind made up. For us EAA types, one of the biggest and best news-making events of the year is the annual EAA “Convention” at Oshkosh. A lot of folks just call it “Oshkosh”, some call it “AirVenture”, but most of the EAA staffers just call it Well “Convention”. This week-long aviation adventure-fest just wrapped up last week!! Among other things, the Two-Millionth Young Eagle was flown last week at EAA “Convention”!! Way to Go Young Eagle Volunteers! Even though I didn’t make it to go to the big show, I did hear from our chapter member extraordinaire, Deborah Van Treuren, several times. -
Comprehensive Examinations: a List of Historical Events, Figures, Concepts, and Terms
Comprehensive Examinations: A List of Historical Events, Figures, Concepts, and Terms Ems Telegram Gulag Archipelago Franco-Prussian War Kellogg Briand Pact Dual Alliance Non-aggression pacts Zollverein Third International Bismarck Dismissed Comintern Entente Cordiale, Russia, France Spanish Civil War Spanish-American War Popular Front Panama Canal Construction Francisco Franco Russo-Japanese War Benito Mussolini Balkan Wars Treaty of Rapallo Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand Fascism Schlieffen Plan Weimar Republic Triple Entente Munich Putsch (Beer Hall Putsch) Triple Alliance Mein Kampf First Battle of the Marne Locarno Conference and Treaties Verdun Wall Street Crash (Black Monday) Lusitania Smoot Hawley Tariff Wilson declares war Hitler becomes chancellor Armistice Day National Socialist German Workers Party (Nazi Treaty of Versailles Party) Senate rejects Versailles Treaty Night of the Long Knives Fourteen Points Maginot Line League of Nations Remilitarization of the Rhineland Alsace Lorraine Washington Naval Treaty David Lloyd George London Naval Treaty Georges Clemenceau Open Door Policy Ferdinand Foch Manchukuo Erich von Ludendorff Japanese occupation of Manchuria Kaiser Wilhelm (William II) Kuomintang Balfour Declaration Sun Yat-Sen Provisional Government (Russia) Chiang K’ai-Shek Petrograd Soviet Neutrality Act Bolshevik Revolution Holocaust Vladimir Lenin Adolf Hitler Leon Trotsky Joseph Goebbels Joseph Stalin Munich Conference and Agreement Feliks Dzherzhinky Neville Chamberlain Cheka Appeasement Third International -
Volatility and the Alchemy of Risk
Volatility and the Alchemy of Risk Reflexivity in the Shadows of Black Monday 1987 Christopher Cole The Ouroboros, a Greek word meaning ‘tail debt expansion, asset volatility, and financial Artemis Capital Managment devourer’, is the ancient symbol of a snake engineering that allocates risk based on that consuming its own body in perfect symmetry. volatility. In this self-reflexive loop volatility The imagery of the Ouroboros evokes the can reinforce itself both lower and higher. In infinite nature of creation from destruction. The a market where stocks and bonds are both sign appears across cultures and is an important overvalued, financial alchemy is the only way to icon in the esoteric tradition of Alchemy. feed our global hunger for yield, until it kills the Egyptian mystics first derived the symbol very system it is nourishing. from a real phenomenon in nature. In extreme The Global Short Volatility trade now heat a snake, unable to self-regulate its body represents an estimated $2+ trillion in financial temperature, will experience an out-of-control engineering strategies that simultaneously exert spike in its metabolism. In a state of mania, the influence over, and are influenced by, stock snake is unable to differentiate its own tail from market volatility.2 We broadly define the short its prey, and will attack itself, self-cannibalizing volatility trade as any financial strategy that until it perishes. In nature and markets, when relies on the assumption of market stability to randomness self-organizes into too perfect generate returns, while using volatility itself symmetry, order becomes the source of chaos.1 as an input for risk taking.