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10.2 the Atlantic Hurricane Database Re-Analysis Project: Results for the First 60 Years - 1851 to 1910

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10.2 the Atlantic Hurricane Database Re-Analysis Project: Results for the First 60 Years - 1851 to 1910 10.2 THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE DATABASE RE-ANALYSIS PROJECT: RESULTS FOR THE FIRST 60 YEARS - 1851 TO 1910 Christopher W. Landsea* Craig Anderson** Noel Charles*** Gilbert Clark*** Jason Dunion* Jose Fernandez-Partagas***** Paul Hungerford*** Charlie Neumann**** Mark Zimmer*** *NOAA/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida, USA; **NOAA/Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, Colorado, USA; ***Florida International University, Miami, Florida, USA; ****SAIC, Miami, Florida, USA; *****Deceased Contributed for the 14th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations Long Beach, CA 9-13 February, 2003 ABSTRACT cyclone, a “center fix” file of raw tropical cyclone A re-analysis of the Atlantic basin tropical observations, a collection of U.S. landfalling storm and hurricane database (“best track”) for the tropical storms and hurricanes and comments period of 1851 to 1910 has been completed. This from/replies to the National Hurricane Center’s reworking and extension back in time of the main Best Track Change Committee. This chapter archive for tropical cyclones of the North Atlantic details the methodologies and references utilized Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico was for this re-analysis of the Atlantic tropical cyclone necessary to correct systematic and random errors record. Such a revised database should prove and biases in the data as well as to incorporate the quite beneficial for those conducting research, recent historical analyses of Partagas and Diaz. forecasting, emergency planning and mitigation of The re-analysis project provides the revised these violent and destructive storms. tropical storm and hurricane database, a metadata file detailing individual changes for each tropical 1 2. OUTLINE OF DATABASES PROVIDED IN THE 1. INTRODUCTION RE-ANALYSIS This chapter provides documentation of the Currently, the HURDAT database is first efforts to re-analyze the National Hurricane updated at the end of each year's hurricane Center's (NHC's) North Atlantic hurricane database season after the NHC hurricane specialists (or HURDAT, also called “best tracks” since they are perform a post-analysis of that year’s storms. the “best” determination of track and intensity in a The most recent docum entation generally post-analysis of the tropical cyclones). The original available for the database is a NOAA Technical database of six-hourly tropical cyclone (i.e. tropical Mem orandum by Jarvinen et al. (1984). W hile storms and hurricanes) positions and intensities was this reference is still valid for most descriptions of assembled in the 1960s in support of the Apollo the tropical cyclone database, it too is in need of space program to help provide statistical tropical revision. This chapter is designed to help cyclone track forecasting guidance (Jarvinen et al. provide a more up to date documentation for 1984). Since its inception, this database, which is HURDAT. freely and easily accessible on the Internet from As part of the re-analysis effort, five files NHC's webpage have been made available: <http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.html> has been 1) The revised Atlantic HURDAT: This contains utilized for a wide variety of uses: climatic change the six-hourly intensity (maximum sustained [1 studies, seasonal forecasting, risk assessment for min] surface [10 m] winds and, when available, county emergency managers, analysis of potential central pressures) and position (to the nearest losses for insurance and business interests, intensity 0.1o latitude and longitude) estimates of all forecasting techniques, and verification of official and known tropical storms and hurricanes. model predictions of track and intensity. 2) HURDAT metafile: This docum entation file Unfortunately, HURDAT was not designed with all of has detailed information about each change in these uses in mind when it was first put together and the revised HURDAT. Included are the original not all of them may be appropriate, given its original HURDAT values of position and/or intensity, the motivation and limitations. revised values in HURDAT, and the reasoning There are many reasons why a re-analysis behind the changes. of the HURDAT dataset was both needed and timely. 3) A “center fix” file: A file has been created that HURDAT contained many systematic and random is composed of raw observations of tropical errors that needed correction (Neumann 1994). cyclone positions (thus “center fixes”) and Additionally, as our understanding of tropical intensity measurements from either ships or cyclones had developed, analysis techniques had coastal stations. changed over the years at NHC, leading to biases in 4) U.S. landfalling tropical storm and hurricane the historical database that had not been addressed database: This file contains information on the (Landsea 1993). Another difficulty in applying the exact time, location, intensity, radius of hurricane database to studies concerned with maximum winds (RMW), environmental sea level landfalling events was the lack of exact location, time pressure and storm surge for continental U.S. and intensity information at landfall. Finally, recent landfalling (and those whose centers do not efforts led by Jose Fernandez-Partagas to uncover make landfall, but do impact land) tropical storms previously undocumented historical tropical cyclones and hurricanes. in the mid-1800s to early 1900s have greatly 5) NHC Best Track Change Committee increased our knowledge of these past events com ments: This file provides detailed comments (Partagas and Diaz 1996a), which also had not been from the NHC’s Best Track Change Committee – incorporated into the HURDAT database. a group tasked with approving alterations to the A re-analysis of the Atlantic tropical cyclone HURDAT database. Replies by the authors to database is substantiated by the need to address the various comments and recommendations are these deficiencies as well as to extend the historical also included. record back in time. This chapter details the first These files along with track maps efforts to improve both the accuracy and consistency showing all tropical storms and hurricanes for of HURDAT for the years of 1886 to 1910 as well as individual years are available on the HURDAT to provide an additional thirty-five years (1851-1885) re-analysis web page: into the archived database of Atlantic tropical storms <http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/index.htm and hurricanes. l>. 2 3. CHANGES ACHIEVED IN HURDAT “Storm 1, 1856 (Aug. 10-11). 3.1 The Work of Jose Fernandez-Partagas Tannehill (1938) has mentioned The major component of changes to this storm as having occurred along the HURDAT has been to digitize and quality control the Louisiana coast. Dunn and Miller (1960) work of Partagas and Diaz (1995a, 1995b, 1996a, and Ludlum (1963) have also mentioned 1996b, 1996c, 1997, 1999). This involved the this storm. The author of this study has creation of completely new tropical cyclone tracks prepared the storm track which is and intensities for the years 1851 to 1885 as well as displayed in Fig. [1]. the alteration of existing track and intensity data for The New-York Daily Times, Aug. 16, the period of 1886 to 1910. Secondarily, the re- 1856 p.1, col.1, published that there had analysis effort also corrected many of the existing been a storm in the New Orleans area systematic and random errors that existed in the on August 10 and that such a storm had 1886 to 1910 portion of HURDAT. The been most disastrous at Last Island (Ile improvements included: a) corrected interpolations Derniere). A narrative of what had of winds near landfall, b) more realistic speed happened at Last Island included some changes at beginning and/or end of track, c) meteorological remarks: Heavy N.E. improved landfall locations, and d) correction of winds prevailed during the night of reduction of winds inland (using Kaplan and August 9 and a perfect hurricane started DeMaria’s (1995, 2001) methodology). References blowing around 10 A.M. August 10. The used by Partagas and Diaz included the following: water commenced to rise about 2 P.M. ship reports published in The New York Times, The and by 4 P.M. currents from the Gulf and Times (London) and Gaceta de la Habana, the the Bay had met and the sea waved Monthly Weather Review individual storm and over the whole island (The New-York seasonal summaries, the Historical Weather Maps Daily Times, Aug. 21, p.3, col.4). series, reports of the Chief of the Weather Bureau The following information has been (U.S.), Academia de Ciencias (1970), Alexander extracted from Ludlum (1963): The ship (1902), Cline (1926), Dunn and Miller (1960), Garcia- "C. D. Mervin" passed through the eye of Bonnelly (1958), Garriott (1900), Gutierrez-Lanza the storm off the Southwest Pass. (1904), Ho et al. (1987), Instituto Cubano de Captain Mervin checked the barometer Geodesia y Cartografia (1978), Ludlum (1963), at 8 A.M. Aug. 10 and noticed a reading Martinez-Fortun (1942), Mitchell (1924), Neumann et of 28.20 inches, a 24-hr drop of 1.70 al. (1993), Ortiz-Hector (1975), Rappaport and inches. At 9 A.M. the ship had a calm Partagas (1995), Rodriguez-Demorizi (1958), which lasted for 5 minutes. The sun Rodriguez-Ferrer (1876), Salivia (1972), Sarasola shone and there was every appearance (1928), Simpson and Riehl (1981), Sullivan (1986), of clearing off but the wind suddenly Tannehill (1938), Tucker (1982), Vines (1877), and struck the ship from the opposite Vines (1895). Sources utilized in addition to those in direction. For two more hours, more a Partagas and Diaz included the following: Abraham southerly hurricane struck the ship and et al. (1998), Barnes (1998a, 1998b), Boose et al. then gradually abated. After the (2001, 2002), Coch and Jarvinen (2000), Connor hurricane, the ship location was found to (1956), Doehring et al. (1994), Ellis (1988), Hebert be only 60 miles to the W.S.W. of and McAdie (1997), Ho (1989), Hudgins (2000), Southwest Pass.
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