May/June 2013 A Closer Look at the Iraqi Banking Sector 16 RAFFLES QUAY #40-02A HONG LEONG BUILDING SINGAPORE 048581 TEL: +65 6372 7580 http://www.sansarcapital.com To request additional information, please contact:
[email protected] Sansar Capital Management, LLC, 2013, Copyright © All Rights Reserved 1 Table of Contents Executive Summary 3 Methodology 4 Iraq: A Quick Glance 5 Banking Sector Overview 6 The State Owned Banks 8 How Iraqi Banks Make Money 10 Risk Analysis: CAMEL 16 ROE: Adjusting the reported numbers 19 Capital Issuance: What comes next? 22 Valuation: The Traditional Approach 24 Laws and Regulations 26 Company Overview: North Bank (BNOR) 27 Bank of Baghdad (BBOB) 34 Iraqi Middle East Bank Investment Bank (BIME) 41 Kurdistan International Bank (BKUI) 50 Dar Es Salaam Investment Bank (BDSI) 55 Important Disclosures: 60 Sources: 62 Sansar Capital Management, LLC, 2013, Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2 Executive Summary The Iraqi banking sector is poised for significant earnings and asset growth over the next decade driven by a strong macro environment, increasing credit penetration and an improving security situation. The IMF forecasts Iraqi GDP to grow at a rate of 9.0% in 2013 on the back of 8.4% growth in 2012 placing Iraq solidly in the category of one of the fastest growing economies in the world.1 The IEA in its World Energy Outlook report stated that Iraq is expected to contribute 45% of the global incremental oil supply over this decade.2 As a result, the IEA central scenario forecast predicts Iraq GDP to grow 151% between 2011 to 2020.2 Rising credit penetration is likely to further fuel banking sector growth.