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AI Watch Historical Evolution of Artificial Intelligence JRC TECHNICAL REPORTS AI Watch Historical Evolution of Artificial Intelligence Analysis of the three main paradigm shifts in AI EUR 30221 EN This publication is a Technical report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission’s science and knowledge service. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking process. The scientific output expressed does not imply a policy position of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of this publication. Contact information Blagoj DELIPETREV European Commission, Joint Research Centre, TP262, Via Fermi, 21027 Ispra (VA), ITALY [email protected] Tel.: + 39 0332 786 352 AI-Watch functional mailbox [email protected] EU Science Hub https://ec.europa.eu/jrc JRC120469 EUR 30221 EN PDF ISBN 978-92-76-18940-4 ISSN 1831-9424 doi:10.2760/801580 Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2020 © European Union, 2020 The reuse policy of the European Commission is implemented by the Commission Decision 2011/833/EU of 12 December 2011 on the reuse of Commission documents (OJ L 330, 14.12.2011, p. 39). Except otherwise noted, the reuse of this document is authorised under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This means that reuse is allowed provided appropriate credit is given and any changes are indicated. For any use or reproduction of photos or other material that is not owned by the EU, permission must be sought directly from the copyright holders. All content © European Union, 2020, except: Page 5 - Table 1: Some definitions of AI, organized in four categories (Russell and Norvig 2016); Page 20 - Figure 8: Adversarial attacks (OpenAI.com). How to cite this report: Blagoj DELIPETREV, Chrisa TSINARAKIi, Uroš KOSTIĆ. “Historical Evolution of Artificial Intelligence”, EUR 30221 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2020, ISBN 978-92-76-18940-4, doi:10.2760/801580, JRC120469 Contents Foreword .................................................................................................................................................................1 Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................................................2 Executive summary .................................................................................................................................................3 Abstract ...................................................................................................................................................................4 AI definitions and main classifications .............................................................................................................5 AI Foundations (1950s – 1970s) ......................................................................................................................7 2.1 Bold predictions ........................................................................................................................................7 2.2 Investments ..............................................................................................................................................8 2.3 Issues ........................................................................................................................................................8 2.3.1 The ALPAC report ...........................................................................................................................8 2.3.2 The Lighthill report ........................................................................................................................8 Symbolic AI (1970s – 1990s) ...........................................................................................................................9 3.1 Bold predictions ........................................................................................................................................9 3.2 Investments ..............................................................................................................................................9 3.3 Issues ......................................................................................................................................................10 Machine learning and deep learning (1990s – 2020s) ..................................................................................11 4.1 Bold predictions ......................................................................................................................................17 4.2 Investments ............................................................................................................................................18 4.3 Issues ......................................................................................................................................................20 4.3.1 Adversarial attacks ......................................................................................................................20 4.3.2 Deepfake ......................................................................................................................................21 4.3.3 AI ethics .......................................................................................................................................21 Conclusions ......................................................................................................................................................24 References ............................................................................................................................................................26 List of abbreviations and definitions ....................................................................................................................29 List of figures ........................................................................................................................................................30 List of tables .........................................................................................................................................................31 Foreword This report is published in the context of AI Watch, the European Commission knowledge service to monitor the development, uptake and impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) for Europe, launched in December 2018. AI has become an area of strategic importance with potential to be a key driver of economic development. AI also has a wide range of potential social implications. As part of its Digital Single Market Strategy, the European Commission put forward in April 2018 a European strategy on AI in its Communication "Artificial Intelligence for Europe" COM (2018)237. The aims of the European AI strategy announced in the communication are: • To boost the EU's technological and industrial capacity and AI uptake across the economy, both by the private and public sectors • To prepare for socio-economic changes brought about by AI • To ensure an appropriate ethical and legal framework. Subsequently, in December 2018, the European Commission and the Member States published a “Coordinated Plan on Artificial Intelligence”, COM (2018)795, on the development of AI in the EU. The Coordinated Plan mentions the role of AI Watch to monitor its implementation. AI Watch monitors European Union’s industrial, technological and research capacity in AI; AI-related policy initiatives in the Member States; uptake and technical developments of AI; and AI impact. AI Watch has a European focus within the global landscape. In the context of AI Watch, the Commission works in coordination with Member States. AI Watch results and analyses are published on the AI Watch Portal (https://ec.europa.eu/knowledge4policy/ai-watch_en). From AI Watch in-depth analyses, we will be able to understand better European Union’s areas of strength and areas where investment is needed. AI Watch will provide an independent assessment of the impacts and benefits of AI on growth, jobs, education, and society. This report addresses the following objectives of AI WATCH: Analysis of the evolution of AI technologies. As part of this objective this report particularly aims to analyse the historical evolution of AI and the similarities and differences among the different phases of this evolution. This is a JRC technical report within the context of our Unit activities on AI. 1 Acknowledgements We are grateful to Professor Barry O’Sullivan from the Insight Centre for Data Analytics, School of Computer Science & IT, University College Cork and Professor José Hernández-Orallo Universitat Politècnica de València, whose insightful comments assisted us in further improving the report. We are thankful to our JRC colleagues: Emilia Gómez, Massimo Craglia, Paul Desruelle, Giuditta De Prato, Montserrat López Cobo, Marius Miron and Alessandro Annoni, for their valuable comments and suggestions. Authors Blagoj Delipetrev, Chrisa Tsinaraki, Uroš Kostić. 2 Executive summary Today, AI has become a mature technology and an increasingly important part of the modern life fabric, but its future is uncertain, with chances of both a higher growth and a decline. Reflecting on the history of the domain may provide us with insights on its future. Starting with fundamental definitions and
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