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OPAG Outer Planets Assessment Group

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OPAG Outer Planets Assessment Group Outer Planets Assessment Group Steering Committee OPAG Fran Bagenal, U Colorado (Chair) Bill Kurth, U Iowa Sushil Atreya, U Michigan Bill McKinnon, Washington U Outer Planets Kevin Baines, JPL Ralph McNutt, JHUAPL Frank Crary, SWRI San Antonio Bill Moore, UCLA Paul Geissler, US Geological Survey Julianne Moses,LPI Assessment Group Randy Gladstone, SWRI San Antonio Amy Simon-Miller, GSFC Ron Greeley, ASU Henry Throop, SWRI Boulder Fran Bagenal, OPAG Chair Bill Hubbard, U Arizona Hal Weaver, JHUAPL University of Colorado, Boulder Torrence Johnson, JPL Curt Niebur, NASA HQ (Executive Officer) Meetings ~ 100 attendees 2005 - Feb, Jun, Oct 2006 - May, Nov http://www.lpi.usra.edu/opag Outer Solar System Exploration Scientific Priorities for the 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Discovery Outer Solar System Stardust Wild-2 Deep Impact Tempel-1 New Frontiers July 2006 New Horizons J P KBO Juno J Flagship Pioneer 10 J scientific objectives Pioneer 11 J S Voyager 1 J S Voyager 2 J S U N Galileo J required Cassini J S ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? measurements Development Cruise Prime mission Extended mission Heliosphere J= Jupiter S=Saturn U=Uranus N=Neptune P=Pluto Nothing planned! mission concepts Why the Outer Solar System? How? Generally Finding 1: Compelling Science – Important Finding 2: Steady, Balanced Strategy – Addressing these scientific discoveries continue to be made in the scientific questions requires a balanced strategy of outer outer solar system through NASA missions and solar system exploration that includes steady support for vigorous programs of basic research, data analysis, and research programs. OPAG affirms the findings of technology development. Fundamental new discoveries the NRC Decadal Survey and NASA's 2006 are best made with a mixture of mission sizes that includes Roadmap that the outer solar system provides large flagship missions, along with small and medium- critical clues to unraveling the mysteries of how sized missions. A stable budget is crucial for continuity solar systems form and evolve, how planetary of scientific and technical capability. Such a strategy is systems become habitable, and how life has most efficiently implemented as a coherent Outer Planets Exploration Program. evolved in our solar system. How? Specifically FindingFinding 3: 3: Mission Mission Studies Studies – –OPAG OPAG encourages encourages NASA NASA to to beginbegin comprehensive comprehensive mission mission studie studies stoward toward destinations destinations inin the the outer outer solar solar system system in inorder order to toassess assess the the technical technical feasibility,feasibility, realisticrealistic costcost and and time time frame frame of viable of missions.viable missions.OPAG affirms OPAG theaffirms findings the findingsof the Decadalof the Decadal Survey, Survey,COMPLEX, COMPLEX, and SSES, and SSES,that E thaturopa E uropais the itop-prioritys the top- priorityscience science destination destination in the in outerthe outer solar solar system. system. Titan Titan and andEnceladus Enceladus a rea realso also importantimportant sciencescience destinationsdestinations and and OPAGOPAG urges urges NASA NASA to to evaluate evaluate potential potential missions missions to to these these targets.targets. Flagships PSS July letter • Several scientifically important destinations in the outer solar system require a Flagship missions will be required to address many of flagship mission. the most fundamental scientific objectives of solar • Support Cassini extended mission & Cassini Data Analysis Program. system exploration and must be accommodated within any long-range strategy for the Planetary Science • Recognizing the recent trends of escalating costs of large missions within Division. The New Frontiers Program, too, is critical to NASA’s SMD, OPAG advocates that all studies of missions involve scientists the accomplishment of solar system exploration working closely with mission engineers and that these studies must be subject to a review of technical, management and cost by an independent body. OPAG is objectives. The New Frontiers Program should concerned that any delays and/or cost over-runs of the next flagship mission might therefore not be expanded in an attempt to jeopardize the long-term goals for scientific exploration of the outer solar system. accommodate the goals and objectives of flagship-class missions. Mission Concept Studies Europa • OPAG strongly encourages NASA to complete mission concept studies of missions to Europa, Titan and/or • Europa remains the consensus Enceladus, giant planets (particularly their deep atmospheres) priority target of the OPAG and small bodies as important scientific targets in the outer community, as it is in the NRC solar system as soon as possible and with sufficient fidelity to Decadal Survey, in reports to inform a decision about the next flagship mission. NASA from both COMPLEX • To inform decisions about a future flagship and SSES. mission, concept studies of outer planet flagship …and Roadmap missions must be with sufficient fidelity to ascertain whether missions realistically fit into a “flagship …and Science Plan box” of a set timeframe (e.g. 15 years) and a set total mission cost (e.g. $2.5B). • Results from the Cassini-Huygens mission have demonstrated that Titan is a Europa compelling destination. Titan is unique in Titan its own right, but intriguing commonalities • OPAG encourages NASA to with Earth make it also valuable for undertake a comprehensive comparison with Earth. Phase A mission study to • The OPAG Working Group assess the feasibility of a concludes: 1) exploration of Titan Europa mission that can requires a flagship mission and 2) a achieve the priority science flagship Titan mission should include within an accurate and an orbiter as well as a realistic cost-cap and balloon/aerobot/probe. complete the primary mission • OPAG urges NASA to support by a timeframe of 2020-2022. studies of potential missions to Titan to evaluate the best approach to exploring this intriguing moon. Technologies Advances in technological capabilities can enable or greatly enhance scientific missions to Enceladus the outer solar system. Of particular importance for exploration of the outer solar system is the developing and testing of radioisotope power systems as well as ensuring appropriate fuel supply. • Enabling Technology: Workshop Sunday • High power, low mass radioisotope power systems (RPSs) • Advanced propulsion systems (e.g. chemical, electrical, aerocapture, radioisotope) before DPS • Technologies for extremely cold environments (e.g., surface packages for icy bodies) • Unique enabling technologies for specific missions – a. Titan: Balloons, aerobots or similar – b. Probes into atmospheres operating at high pressures and temperatures OPAG has begun discussions of Enceladus as a – c. Communication from deep atmospheric probes • Enhancing Technology: potential mission target and will expand these • Low-power, low-mass, radiation tolerant components • Advanced passive and active remote sensing instruments discussions as it continues to be studied by • Low-power, low-mass in situ instruments Cassini. • Upgraded DSN capability R&A New Frontiers • OPAG notes the findings and recommendations of the NRC’s Space Studies Report on Research and Analysis supporting a balanced program OPAG supports an AO for the 3rd New for NASA’s scientific research (http://www7.nationalacademies.org/ssb/) • OPAG endorses the recommendations of the Planetary Science Frontiers mission in the 2008 timeframe Subcommittee of the NAC and encourages NASA to make the scope (http://science.hq.nasa.gov/strategy/subcomm.html) of the AO broad. For example, some of the • OPAG is encouraged to see Cassini Data Analysis Program (CDAP) started. The initial budget of $2.5M is expected to double in subsequent closer primitive bodies (e.g. Trojan years. However, the funding profile for the program is inadequate asteroids, captured satellites, Centaurs) are considering the expected science return of the Cassini mission. • A Cassini Extended Mission is a fantastic opportunity to further science possible targets for New Frontiers return. Cassini science teams as well as CDAP will both need to be funded missions. OPAG encourages NASA to to maximize scientific return. allow such missions within the next AO for New Frontiers missions. Discovery Next Meeting: • OPAG notes the value of Discovery Early November 7-8th, 2006 missions in the exploration of the outer in Tuscon, Arizona solar system. • RPS issues • Given that radioisotope power systems • Flagship studies? • Cassini (RPS) expand the opportunities for outer – extended mission solar system exploration, OPAG – Titan recommends NASA explore ways to – Enceladus include the use of such power systems in the Discovery program. http://www.lpi.usra.edu/opag The Three Classes of Missions to the Budget Outer Solar System Mission Class Mission Cost Flight Rate Investment ($FY06) Per Decade Per Decade Discovery: (~5 years, ~$425M) Quick implementation, Discovery $0.4B 7 $2.8B addresses focused questions, innovative New Frontiers $0.7B 4 $2.8B New Frontiers: (~10 years, ~$750M) Discovery-style Small Flagship (C) $1.4B 2 $2.8B missions to more challenging targets OR Flagship: (15-20 years, $1-3B) Missions to strategic targets Large Flagship (B) $2.8B 1 $2.8B and addressing broad scientific goals, high return from several coordinated scientific investigations, lowest cost-per-science- $8.4B per decade or $0.84B per year instrument, complex or multiple targets ~ 50% of the current total Planetary Science Division budget.
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