What About the Risk of a Bursting Asset Bubble?
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Load more
Recommended publications
-
Lessons from the Great American Real Estate Bubble: Florida 1926
Lessons from the Great American Real Estate Bubble: Florida 1926 NBER Summer Institute July 7-10, 2008 Preliminary Please do not cite. Eugene N. White Rutgers University and NBER Department of Economics New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA Phone: 732-932-7486 Fax: 732-932-7416 [email protected] could never be another 1929 investors were better informed, the event quaint tale of distantPrior foolishness. Research on market bubbles was a exercise treatment. to the 1987 stock market crash descended on many of recent housing. market bubble’s the collapse of the housingThe market housing brought market about boom a decline and bust in aggregate the m investment weakening of householdIt balance is a forgotten sheets episode, which if discussed, through conflicts of interest that spawnedFlorida. That the housing marketGreat C boom was nationwide policy failed to address the general question of how to manage the Great Depression. Bank rash. The securities m elsewhere in the economy, the collapse of the housing market did not derail the economy;s of the latethe twenties conventional seemed wisdom at was that there however it explains Depression and Housing w It was the one of a one The Forgotten Real Estate Boom of thecharacteristics 1920s is arkets had been reformed and as the first part of the 1925 , with insider lending and it seriously weakened the balance sheets of many householdssupervision and f banks. id a rising tide of foreclosures-1920s has received similar the autonomous drop in investment on the eve of the Great is seen as 7000 unknown. limited -two punch. -
Recession of 1797?
SAE./No.48/February 2016 Studies in Applied Economics WHAT CAUSED THE RECESSION OF 1797? Nicholas A. Curott and Tyler A. Watts Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and Study of Business Enterprise What Caused the Recession of 1797? By Nicholas A. Curott and Tyler A. Watts Copyright 2015 by Nicholas A. Curott and Tyler A. Watts About the Series The Studies in Applied Economics series is under the general direction of Prof. Steve H. Hanke, co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and Study of Business Enterprise ([email protected]). About the Authors Nicholas A. Curott ([email protected]) is Assistant Professor of Economics at Ball State University in Muncie, Indiana. Tyler A. Watts is Professor of Economics at East Texas Baptist University in Marshall, Texas. Abstract This paper presents a monetary explanation for the U.S. recession of 1797. Credit expansion initiated by the Bank of the United States in the early 1790s unleashed a bout of inflation and low real interest rates, which spurred a speculative investment bubble in real estate and capital intensive manufacturing and infrastructure projects. A correction occurred as domestic inflation created a disparity in international prices that led to a reduction in net exports. Specie flowed out of the country, prices began to fall, and real interest rates spiked. In the ensuing credit crunch, businesses reliant upon rolling over short term debt were rendered unsustainable. The general economic downturn, which ensued throughout 1797 and 1798, involved declines in the price level and nominal GDP, the bursting of the real estate bubble, and a cluster of personal bankruptcies and business failures. -
Dormant Potential: Strategies for Advancing Human Development In
Dormant potential Strategies for advancing human development in Namibia Zachary Donnenfeld and Courtney Crookes Since gaining independence in 1990, Namibia has sustained rapid economic growth at an average of 4.5% a year, well above the average experienced by other upper-middle-income countries in Africa (2.8%) and nearly a percentage point higher than the continental average (3.7%). However, this economic growth has not been accompanied by proportional increases in service delivery. Namibia ranks at or near the bottom of its upper-middle-income peer group on a number of dimensions of human well-being, such as undernutrition, access to improved sanitation and average number of years of education. This report explores options for improving human development outcomes in Namibia to 2040 using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system. SOUTHERN AFRICA REPORT 11 | SEPTEMBER 2017 After a bloody and protracted liberation struggle – and with significant Recommendations influence from the international community – Namibia declared its Invest in health extension independence on 21 March 1990.1 Since then the country has averaged programmes that address gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 4.5% a year, largely on the back communicable and non- of its extractive industries and budding tourism economy. The country’s communicable diseases. economy has grown about a percentage point faster than the average African country over the last 25 years and, despite a substantial downtick Improve the flow of students in 2016 (when its estimated yearly growth was 1.6%), the International through the education pipeline. Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Namibia’s growth to average roughly 4.5% Increase access to family from 2017 to 2021.2 planning. -
Fortnightly Market Wrap up Spring Week Edition 31 March 2013
March 31, 2013 WIC Market Wrap-Up Fortnightly Market Wrap Up Spring Week Edition 31 March 2013 Warwick Investment Club Research Team 1 March 31, 2013 WIC Market Wrap-Up The WIC Market Wrap-Up The WIC Market Wrap-Up is published fortnightly by the Warwick Finance Societies’ (WFS) Warwick Investment Club (WIC) Research Team. Receive the Wrap Up via email newsletter by joining the WFS, or look out for archived issues on www.wfsocieties.com. In this Week’s Issue Editorial – page 3 Italy – page 7 Quantitative Easing and the Italian Political Debacle – Balance Sheet Recession Where we stand now By Daryl Chia, Editor-in-Chief By Marco Ross, Co-Editor US Equities – page 4 Renewables – page 8 Spring in the Step of the Dow Has the Sun Set for the Solar Jones and S&P 500 Industry? By Will Caffrey, Analyst By Richard Low, Analyst The Japanese Economy – page 5 Technology – page 9 Manufacturing – Bad signs for Blackberries – Back in season? the Japanese economy By John Peter Ong, Analyst By Eleanor Gaffney, Analyst Research Team Application Essay – page 10 Cyprus – page 6 The Eurozone Crisis The Significance of the Bailout By Jonathan Denham Deal Research Team Application Essay – page 11 By Melson Chun, Analyst The 2008 Global Financial Crisis By Zak Simpson Warwick Investment Club Research Team 2 March 31, 2013 WIC Market Wrap-Up Editorial nominal line under assets and reduced liquidity-related tail risks, but have not translated to a solution that can Quantitative Easing and the bring about robust long term growth. Balance Sheet Recession Alas, the asset reflation and wealth effect of QE is meaningful only in the short term. -
Download NI Newsletter Fall 2018
NATURAL INVESTMENT NEWS fall 2018 N º. 9 8 Divestment as a Moral Imperative by Kirbie Crowe Few stories dominated headlines this summer like the unfolding of the family separation debacle happening at the U.S.-Mexico border. As civil and political unrest worsened in some Latin American countries, the border saw a dramatic increase of families seeking asylum. Over the spring and early summer, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) forcibly separated more than 3,000 children from their parents, per the Trump administration’s “zero tolerance” policy on immigration, and imprisoned them in detention centers across the country; in combination with the surge in Investing in Carbon Drawdown unaccompanied children crossing the border, the number by Sylvia Panek of children in U.S. detention centers has now ballooned to A little over one year ago, President Trump reaffirmed more than 13,000. his intention to withdraw the United States from the Paris News reports revealed images of solitary children, Climate Accord. As if on cue, an iceberg the size of Delaware huddled under thin aluminum blankets and wailing in the broke away from the Larsen C ice shelf in Antarctica, where cages of detention centers run by two private companies: temperatures have risen nearly five degrees on average over GEO Group and Corrections Corporation of America the past few decades. And Hurricane Harvey, Hurricane (referred to as “CoreCivic”); both manage private prisons Maria, and Hurricane Florence wrought unprecedented as well as ICE detention centers. Immigrant children held destruction in rapid succession upon Texas, Puerto Rico, in facilities run by these two companies have complained and North Carolina, respectively. -
Corporate Bonds and Debentures
Corporate Bonds and Debentures FCS Vinita Nair Vinod Kothari Company Kolkata: New Delhi: Mumbai: 1006-1009, Krishna A-467, First Floor, 403-406, Shreyas Chambers 224 AJC Bose Road Defence Colony, 175, D N Road, Fort Kolkata – 700 017 New Delhi-110024 Mumbai Phone: 033 2281 3742/7715 Phone: 011 41315340 Phone: 022 2261 4021/ 6237 0959 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Website: www.vinodkothari.com 1 Copyright & Disclaimer . This presentation is only for academic purposes; this is not intended to be a professional advice or opinion. Anyone relying on this does so at one’s own discretion. Please do consult your professional consultant for any matter covered by this presentation. The contents of the presentation are intended solely for the use of the client to whom the same is marked by us. No circulation, publication, or unauthorised use of the presentation in any form is allowed, except with our prior written permission. No part of this presentation is intended to be solicitation of professional assignment. 2 About Us Vinod Kothari and Company, company secretaries, is a firm with over 30 years of vintage Based out of Kolkata, New Delhi & Mumbai We are a team of qualified company secretaries, chartered accountants, lawyers and managers. Our Organization’s Credo: Focus on capabilities; opportunities follow 3 Law & Practice relating to Corporate Bonds & Debentures 4 The book can be ordered by clicking here Outline . Introduction to Debentures . State of Indian Bond Market . Comparison of debentures with other forms of borrowings/securities . Types of Debentures . Modes of Issuance & Regulatory Framework . -
Interest-Rate-Growth Differentials and Government Debt Dynamics
From: OECD Journal: Economic Studies Access the journal at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/19952856 Interest-rate-growth differentials and government debt dynamics David Turner, Francesca Spinelli Please cite this article as: Turner, David and Francesca Spinelli (2012), “Interest-rate-growth differentials and government debt dynamics”, OECD Journal: Economic Studies, Vol. 2012/1. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eco_studies-2012-5k912k0zkhf8 This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. OECD Journal: Economic Studies Volume 2012 © OECD 2013 Interest-rate-growth differentials and government debt dynamics by David Turner and Francesca Spinelli* The differential between the interest rate paid to service government debt and the growth rate of the economy is a key concept in assessing fiscal sustainability. Among OECD economies, this differential was unusually low for much of the last decade compared with the 1980s and the first half of the 1990s. This article investigates the reasons behind this profile using panel estimation on selected OECD economies as means of providing some guidance as to its future development. The results suggest that the fall is partly explained by lower inflation volatility associated with the adoption of monetary policy regimes credibly targeting low inflation, which might be expected to continue. However, the low differential is also partly explained by factors which are likely to be reversed in the future, including very low policy rates, the “global savings glut” and the effect which the European Monetary Union had in reducing long-term interest differentials in the pre-crisis period. -
Sample Debt Validation Letter (Send Via Certified Mail, Return Receipt Requested)
Sample Debt Validation Letter (Send via certified mail, return receipt requested) Date: Your Name Your Address Your City, State, Zip Collection Agency Name Collection Agency Address Collection Agency City, State, Zip RE: Account # (Fill in Account Number) To Whom It May Concern: Be advised this is not a refusal to pay, but a notice that your claim is disputed and validation is requested. Under the Fair Debt collection Practices Act (FDCPA), I have the right to request validation of the debt you say I owe you. I am requesting proof that I am indeed the party you are asking to pay this debt, and there is some contractual obligation that is binding on me to pay this debt. This is NOT a request for “verification” or proof of my mailing address, but a request for VALIDATION made pursuant to 15 USC 1692g Sec. 809 (b) of the FDCPA. I respectfully request that your offices provide me with competent evidence that I have any legal obligation to pay you. At this time I will also inform you that if your offices have or continue to report invalidated information to any of the three major credit bureaus (Equifax, Experian, Trans Union), this action might constitute fraud under both federal and state laws. Due to this fact, if any negative mark is found or continues to report on any of my credit reports by your company or the company you represent, I will not hesitate in bringing legal action against you and your client for the following: Violation of the Fair Debt Collection Practices Act and Defamation of Character. -
Whose History and by Whom: an Analysis of the History of Taiwan In
WHOSE HISTORY AND BY WHOM: AN ANALYSIS OF THE HISTORY OF TAIWAN IN CHILDREN’S LITERATURE PUBLISHED IN THE POSTWAR ERA by LIN-MIAO LU (Under the Direction of Joel Taxel) ABSTRACT Guided by the tenet of sociology of school knowledge, this study examines 38 Taiwanese children’s trade books that share an overarching theme of the history of Taiwan published after World War II to uncover whether the seemingly innocent texts for children convey particular messages, perspectives, and ideologies selected, preserved, and perpetuated by particular groups of people at specific historical time periods. By adopting the concept of selective tradition and theories of ideology and hegemony along with the analytic strategies of constant comparative analysis and iconography, the written texts and visual images of the children’s literature are relationally analyzed to determine what aspects of the history and whose ideologies and perspectives were selected (or neglected) and distributed in the literary format. Central to this analysis is the investigation and analysis of the interrelations between literary content and the issue of power. Closely related to the discussion of ideological peculiarities, historians’ research on the development of Taiwanese historiography also is considered in order to examine and analyze whether the literary products fall into two paradigms: the Chinese-centric paradigm (Chinese-centricism) and the Taiwanese-centric paradigm (Taiwanese-centricism). Analysis suggests a power-and-knowledge nexus that reflects contemporary ruling groups’ control in the domain of children’s narratives in which subordinate groups’ perspectives are minimalized, whereas powerful groups’ assumptions and beliefs prevail and are perpetuated as legitimized knowledge in society. -
The Subprime Solution
The Subprime Solution How Today’s Global Financial Crisis Happened, and What to Do about It by Robert J. Shiller Copyright © 2008 by Robert J. Shiller. Published by Perseus Books LLC 208 pages Focus Take-Aways Leadership & Management • The subprime crisis may be the worst financial catastrophe in the United States Strategy since the Great Depression. Sales & Marketing • This crisis is a consequence of the U.S. real-estate bubble. Finance Human Resources • Hardly anyone recognized this bubble as a bubble when it was happening. IT, Production & Logistics • The subprime crisis eroded social capital and trust. Career Development • Restoring trust in the system and controlling the subprime crisis’ fiscal Small Business consequences will require bailouts, though they are generally undesirable. Economics & Politics • Like the Depression, this crisis provides an opportunity for institutional reforms. Industries Intercultural Management • The U.S. needs a better financial information infrastructure to provide accurate Concepts & Trends information to uninformed consumers and mortgage buyers. • New institutions could give credit to mortgage lenders and provide risk management tools to individual borrowers. • Financial market reforms and better financial technology could improve the U.S. economic system. • Current events call for the effectiveness and generosity Americans have shown in the past, as in the Marshall Plan. Rating (10 is best) Overall Importance Innovation Style 9 9 9 8 To purchase abstracts, personal subscriptions or corporate solutions, visit our Web site at www.getAbstract.com or call us at our U.S. office (1-877-778-6627) or Swiss office (+41-41-367-5151). getAbstract is an Internet-based knowledge rating service and publisher of book abstracts. -
Detecting Stock Market Bubbles: a Price-To-Earnings Approach
Colby College Digital Commons @ Colby Honors Theses Student Research 2016 Detecting Stock Market Bubbles: A Price-to-Earnings Approach Austin F. Murphy Colby College Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.colby.edu/honorstheses Part of the Econometrics Commons, and the Finance Commons Colby College theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed or downloaded from this site for the purposes of research and scholarship. Reproduction or distribution for commercial purposes is prohibited without written permission of the author. Recommended Citation Murphy, Austin F., "Detecting Stock Market Bubbles: A Price-to-Earnings Approach" (2016). Honors Theses. Paper 801. https://digitalcommons.colby.edu/honorstheses/801 This Honors Thesis (Open Access) is brought to you for free and open access by the Student Research at Digital Commons @ Colby. It has been accepted for inclusion in Honors Theses by an authorized administrator of Digital Commons @ Colby. Detecting Stock Market Bubbles: A Price-to- Earnings Approach Econometric Bubble Detection Department of Economics Author: Austin Murphy B.A. in Economics and Finance Academic Advisor: Michael Donihue Second Reader: Leonard Wolk Spring 2016 Colby College Colby College Department of Economics Spring 2016 Detecting Stock Market Bubbles Austin Murphy Abstract To this day, economists argue about the existence of stock market bubbles. The literature review for this paper observes the analysis of four reputable bubble tests in an attempt to provide ample qualitative proof for the existence of bubbles. The first obstacle for creating an effective bubble detection test is the difficulty of estimating true fundamental values for equities. Without adequate estimations for the fundamental values of equities, the deviation between actual price and fundamental price is impossible to observe or estimate. -
Inside a Bubble and Crash: Evidence from the Valuation of Amenities
Inside a bubble and crash: Evidence from the valuation of amenities Ronan C. Lyons∗ December 2013 Abstract Housing markets and their cycles are central to understanding macroeco- nomic fluctuations. As housing is an inherently spatial market, an understanding of the economics of location-specific amenities is needed. This paper examines this topic, using a rich dataset of 25 primary location-specific characteristics and over 1.2 million sales and rental listings in Ireland, from the peak of a real estate bubble in 2006 to 2012 when prices had fallen by more than half. It finds clear evidence that the price effects of amenities are greater than rent effects, something that may be explained by either tenant search thresholds or buyers' desire to \lock in" access to fixed-supply amenities. Buyer lock-in concerns would be most prevalent at the height of a bubble and thus would be associated with pro-cyclical amenity pricing. Instead there is significant evidence that the relative price of amenities is counter-cyclical. This suggests the Irish housing market bubble was characterized by \property ladder" effects, rather than \lock-in" concerns. Keywords: Housing markets; amenity valuation; search costs; market cycles. JEL Classification Numbers: R31, E32, H4, D62, H23. ∗Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin ([email protected]), Balliol College, Oxford and Spatial Economics Research Centre (LSE). This is a draft working paper and thus is subject to revisions, so please contact the author if you intend to cite this. The author is grateful to John Muellbauer for his encouragement and insight as supervisor, to Paul Conroy, Richard Dolan, Grainne Faller, Justin Gleeson, Sean Lyons and Bruce McCormack for their assistance with data, and to Paul Cheshire, James Poterba, Steve Redding, Frances Ruane, Richard Tol and participants at conferences by SERC (London 2011), ERES (Edinburgh 2012) and ERSA-UEA (Bratislava 2012) for helpful comments.