EGU Leonardo Conference Series on the Hydrological Cycle FLOODS IN 3D: PROCESSES, PATTERNS, PREDICTIONS EGU Leonardo Conference 23-25 November 2011 Bratislava, Slovakia Edited by: J. Szolgay, M. Danáčová, K. Hlavčová, S. Kohnová, V. Pišteková Published by: Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava © Department of Land and Water Resources Management, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Slovak University of Technology, Radlinského 11, 813 68 Bratislava, Slovakia Number of prints: 120 copies Number of pages: 110 ISBN 978-80-227-3596-4 ii EGU Leonardo Topical Conference Series on the Hydrological Cycle FLOODS IN 3D: PROCESSES, PATTERNS, PREDICTIONS ORGANISED BY: Department of Land and Water Resources Management, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava. INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE Alberto Montanari Università di Bologna, Bologna, Italy Attilio Castellarin Università di Bologna, Bologna, Italy Bob Moore Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, UK Bruno Merz The Helmholtz Research Centre for Geosciences GFZ, Potsdam, Germany G. di Baldassarre Institute for Water Education, Delft, The Netherlands G.T. Aronica University of Messina, Messina, Italy Henrik Madsen DHI, Hørsholm, Denmark Marco Borga University of Padua, Padova, Italy Pierluigi Claps Politecnico di Torino, Torino, Italy Ralf Merz The Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany Roger Moussa Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Montpellier, France Thomas Kjeldsen Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, UK CONFERENCE CHAIR Jan Szolgay Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava, Bratislava, Slovakia LOCAL ORGANIZING COMITTEE AT FACULTY OF CIVIL ENGINEERING, SLOVAK UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY Kamila Hlavčová Silvia Kohnová Michaela Danáčová Jana Daneková Katarína Juričeková Silvia Stasselová Viera Pišteková Gabriela Babiaková Editorial This book of abstracts contains 100 contributions submitted by more than 90 registered authors from 19 countries. The authors take full responsibility for all content. iii iv PREFACE The frequency of disastrous floods, number of fatalities, as well as the economic damage, caused by floods is globally increasing. In this respect environmental changes (such as land- use change, inappropriate river management, and climate variability) have raised increasing concern. Defining reliable and robust flood-risk assessment strategies for emerging and developing countries is also a pressing need because of the lack of data and inappropriate land-use and developments. For these reasons, predicting current and future flood risks continues to be a major challenge for society and science when considering strategies for mitigating and coping with the impact of flooding. As natural phenomena caused by meteorological factors, floods are governed by various landscape properties and modified by human influence. Successful strategies for living with and coping with floods must therefore be based on a sound understanding of the main generating processes of extreme flows, including their spatial and temporal patterns. Incorporating this kind of understanding into predictive models is needed for the reduction of flood risks, and for addressing the potential impacts of global changes on hydrological extremes, including climate and land-use changes. The 2011 Leonardo Conference therefore had the ambition of looking at Floods in 3D: • Processes • Patterns • Predictions To assess and compare developments and impacts, a better understanding of flood processes is essential. This is not an easy task as human activities have disrupted the natural hydrological regimes. Nowadays most river basins cannot be considered pristine. The scientific literature clearly points to the importance of detecting and understanding of hydrological change, especially through improving process-understanding and separating of anthropogenic from natural variations, possibly avoiding an overemphasis on trends. Spatial patterns of flood processes exist on different scales, from small-scale patterns resulting from different runoff production mechanisms operating within a single catchment, to large-scale patterns, caused by the regional variability in hydrometeorology. There has been an increasing need to assess uncertainties when studying spatial and temporal patterns of floods and analysing their possible impact on flood management. The analysis of spatial patterns is central to any regional flood frequency analysis procedure. The analysis of temporal patterns of floods is fundamental to the understanding and assessment of variations in flood frequency. The complex nature of flood risk challenges has established risk assessment methodologies along with their modelling components, such as hydrological and hydraulic simulation methods. Predicting current and future flood risk continues to be a major challenge for climatology, hydrology and water resources engineering. While we have a good qualitative understanding of factors which may lead to changes in flood frequency and flood risk (such as climatic change, land-use effects and human interference in river channels and on flood plains), our quantitative understanding of changes in flood hazard and flood risk is still in need of improvement. These three dimensions of floods were addressed at the 2011 EGU Leonardo Conference, which offered a forum within which the most recent advances for investigating flood processes, patterns and predictions were debated. v vi TABLE OF CONTENTS LEONARDO LECTURE LOOKING AT FLOODS IN 3D - PROCESSES, PATTERNS, PREDICTIONS: Blöschl, G. ..................................................................................................................................... 1 Session: PROCESSES WHY IT CAN BE WORTH USING A DIFFUSIVE MODEL INSTEAD OF A FULLY DYNAMIC ONE: Aricò, C. - Sinagra, M. - Tucciarelli, T. ................................................................ 5 INFLUENCE OF MICROTOPOGRAHY FOR "UNCERTAIN" FLOOD HAZARD ESTIMATION IN URBAN AREAS: Aronica, G.T. - Neal, J. - Candela, A. - Bates, P.D. ............................. 6 APPLICABILITY OF THE NRCS CURVE NUMBER METHOD TO SMALL LOWLAND CATCHMENT IN POLAND: Banasik, K. - Woodward, D. .................................................... 7 HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL, HYDROLOGICAL AND HYDRAULIC ANALYSIS FOR THE NOV 1, 2010 FLOOD EVENT IN THE VENETO REGION OF ITALY: Borga, M. - Zoccatelli, D. - Marra, F. - Penna, D. - Marchi, L. - Frank, E. ................................................................ 8 (FLASH) FLOODS ON 27 AUGUST 2010 IN LOWLAND CATCHMENTS IN THE NETHERLANDS AND GERMANY: Brauer, C.C. - Teuling, A.J. - Overeem, A. - Van der Velde, Y. - Hazenberg, P. - Warmerdam, P.M.M - Uijlenhoet, R. - Hobbelt, L.G. .................. 9 ASSIMILATION OF ASCAT, AMSR-E AND ECMWF DERIVED SOIL MOISTURE PRODUCT FOR FLOOD FORECASTING: Brocca, L. - Melone, F. - Moramarco, T. - Zucco, G. - Wagner, W. - Hasenauer, S. - De Rosnay, P. - Albergel, C. - Matgen, P. - Martin, C. .... 10 DEFINITION OF SOIL MOISTURE INITIAL CONDITION INTO A DISTRIBUTED HYDROLOGICAL MODEL THROUGH LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURE FROM REMOTE SENSING IN THE UPPER YANGTZE RIVER BASIN: Corbari, C. - Mancini, M. - Li, J. - Bob Su ................................................................................................................................... 11 CASE STUDY OF USING HYDROLOGIC FLOW ROUTING FOR ESTIMATING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE TRAVEL TIME OF FLOOD PEAKS AND DISCHARGE: Danáčová, M. - Šúrek, P. - Szolgay, J. ........................................................................ 12 ESTIMATION OF FUTURE FLOOD RISK FOR FLOOD WARNING SYSTEMS IN TORYSA RIVER BASIN: Daneková, J. - Výleta, R. - Hlavčová, K. ................................................. 13 EVALUATING THE PERFORMANCE OF METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTS AND RE- ANALYSIS USING GLOBAL RIVER ROUTING: Dutra, E. - Dai Yamazaki - Wetterhall, F. - Pappenberger, F. - Balsamo, G. ..................................................................................... 14 A NEW MODELLING TOOL FOR DETERMINING THE CATCHMENT HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE (CASE STUDY: ISONZO RIVER): Ferri, M. - Monego, M. - Norbiato, D. - Bauruffi, F. ........................................................................................................................ 15 ANALYSES OF THE DEPENDENCE STRUCTURE OF SIMULATED FLOOD PEAK- VOLUME DATA USING COPULAS: Gaál, L. – Bacigál, T. – Viglione, A. – Szolgay, J. ..... 16 APPLICATION OF BAYESIAN MCMC METHODS FOR INCLUSION OF HISTORICAL FLOODS IN A STATISTICAL ESTIMATION OF DESIGN MAXIMUM FLOODS: Gaál, L. - Kohnová, S. - Szolgay, J. ................................................................................................. 17 vii WHAT HAS BEEN LEARNED FROM THE POST FLASH FLOOD SURVEYS RECENTLY CONDUCTED IN EUROPE?: Gaume, E. - Borga, M. - Marchi, L. .................................... 18 RETROSPECTIVE CASE STUDIES OF FLOOD SIMULATIONS TO ADDRESS THE SOCIOPOLITICAL ISSUES: Hoes, O. - Tariq, M.A.U.R ................................................. 19 TOWARDS ADVANCED SOLUTIONS FOR THE CALIBRATION OF HEAVY METAL DISPERSION CONTAMINATION MODELLING IN FLOODPLAIN: Hostache, R. - Matgen, P. - Hissler, C. - Kies, T. - Tosheva, Z. - Stille, P. - David, E. - Bates, P. ........................... 20 OPERATIVE EVALUATION OF PEAK OUTFLOW DURING FLASH FLOOD USING ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE METHODS: Janál, P. - Stary, M. ....................................... 21 URBAN FOOTPRINTS ON CATCHMENT STORM RUNOFF: Kjeldsen, T.R. - Miller, J.D. -