H.R. 2631, the Nuclear Forensics and Attribution Act
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Before the First Bomb Goes Off: Developing Nuclear Attribution Standards and Policies by Debra K
International Security Program Before the First Bomb Goes Off: Developing Nuclear Attribution Standards and Policies By Debra K. Decker April 2011 Discussion Paper #2011-03 Belfer Center Discussion Paper Series Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs Harvard Kennedy School 79 JFK Street Cambridge, MA 02138 Fax: (617) 495-8963 Email: [email protected] Website: http://belfercenter.org Copyright 2011 President and Fellows of Harvard College CITATION AND REPRODUCTION This document appears as Discussion Paper 2011-03 of the Belfer Center Discussion Paper Series. Belfer Center Discussion Papers are works in progress. Comments are welcome and may be directed to the author via [email protected]. This paper may be cited as: Debra K. Decker, “Before the First Bomb Goes Off: Developing Nuclear Attribution Standards and Policies,” Belfer Center Discussion Paper, No. 2011-03, Harvard Kennedy School, April 2011. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and publication does not imply their endorsement by the Belfer Center and Harvard University. This paper may be reproduced for personal and classroom use. Any other reproduction is not permitted without written permission from the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. To obtain more information, please contact: Katherine B. Gordon, International Security Program, 79 JFK Street, box 53, Cambridge, MA 02138, telephone (617) 495-1914; facsimile (617) 495-8963; email [email protected]. ABOUT THE AUTHOR Debra K. Decker is an Associate with the Project on Managing the Atom and the International Security Program at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard Kennedy School. She is currently based in Washington, D.C., where she is also an Associate of Booz Allen Hamilton and advises government clients on strategic planning and risk management. -
Post-Explosion Nuclear Attribution and Deterrence by Michael Miller
Post-Explosion Nuclear Attribution and Deterrence by Michael Miller A thesis submitted to the Center for International Security and Cooperation Undergraduate Honors Program Stanford University May 24, 2006 Advisor: Michael May, Professor of Management Science and Engineering, Emeritus Second Reader: Siegfried Hecker, Visiting Professor Post-Explosion Nuclear Attribution and Deterrence by Michael Miller Abstract Nuclear attribution or post-explosion forensics is the process of determining the origin of nuclear material after a nuclear incident. While nuclear terrorism has been well-explored in academic literature, there are no technical assessments of attribution capability. This thesis attempts to fill that gap by combining an assessment of the current technology with the contribution that attribution can make toward deterrence. I find that the technology behind attribution is well-developed but not foolproof, and I conclude that if the current capabilities were publicized more thoroughly and the post-explosion process of assessing the evidence were internationalized, states and individual actors might be deterred more than they already are. I explore other possible policy options, including a nuclear database and nuclear tagging, and these are found to be useful but to add less to deterrence. May 24, 2006 iii Acknowledgements This thesis, my endeavor for the year, would not have been possible without guidance and help from numerous sources along the way. First, and most importantly, I’d like to thank my advisor, Michael May, who has helped me tremendously from the day I came by his office when he knew nothing about me and thought my first topic was a bit crazy. By generously signing on to be my advisor and then helping guide my research throughout, always with an eye toward the larger goal of what I was trying to accomplish, he has set the model that I will try to emulate throughout my career. -
Managing Nuclear Risks
MANAGING NUCLEAR RISKS by Robert S. Litwak Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars One Woodrow Wilson Plaza 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Washington, DC 20004-3027 www.wilsoncenter.org ISBN: 978-1-938027-93-2 September 2020 THE WILSON CENTER, chartered by Congress as the official memorial to President Woodrow Wilson, is the nation’s key nonpartisan policy forum for tackling global issues through independent research and open dialogue to inform actionable ideas for Congress, the Administration, and the broader policy community. Conclusions or opinions expressed in Center publications and programs are those of the authors and speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Center staff, fellows, trustees, advisory groups, or any individuals or organizations that provide financial support to the Center. Please visit us online at www.wilsoncenter.org. Jane Harman, Director, President, and CEO BOARD OF TRUSTEES Bill Haslam, Former Governor of Tennessee, Chair Drew Maloney, President and CEO, American Investment Council, Vice Chair Public Members: Alex Azar, Secretary, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Lonnie G. Bunch III, Secretary, Smithsonian Institution Elisabeth DeVos, Secretary, U.S. Department of Education David Ferriero, Archivist of the United States Carla D. Hayden, Librarian of Congress Jon Parrish Peede, Chairman, National Endowment for the Humanities Michael Pompeo, Secretary, U.S. Department of State Private Citizen Members: Peter J. Beshar, Executive Vice President & General Counsel, Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. Thelma Duggin, President, The AnBryce Foundation Barry S. Jackson, Managing Director, The Lindsey Group and Strategic Advisor, Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck David Jacobson, Former U.S. Ambassador to Canada and Vice Chair, BMO Financial Group Nathalie Rayes, President and CEO, Latino Victory Earl W. -
Giving Nuclear Watchdogs Their Bite Roasting Plutonium Pits Why
Also in this issue Giving Nuclear Watchdogs Their Bite Roasting Plutonium Pits NationalWhy Security Stockpile Science • NovemberSize Matters 2012 i About the Cover Nuclear terrorism must be prevented. Nuclear forensics at Los Alamos provides the nation with the capability to quickly identify and thus deter potential terrorists. READERS MAY BE SURPRISED CHARLESMcMILLAN, Laboratory Director Because of our storied history and because we help to safely and securely maintain a reliable nuclear deterrent, Los Alamos is sometimes seen as only a nuclear weapons laboratory. is perception is far from accurate. Los Alamos is a national security science laboratory. e Laboratory provides the government with the science, technology, and engineering needed to help solve many national security problems. Readers may be surprised to learn that Los Alamos is engaged in the following: • Researching aff ordable biofuels to lower U.S. dependence on foreign oil. • Understanding climate change and its national and international ramifi cations. • Studying the outcomes of natural- and human-caused disasters so the nation can better prepare for events such as hurricanes, oods, and acts of terrorism. Readers may also be surprised to learn that the Laboratory is working to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons. e spread of nuclear weapons, particularly to terrorists, is—according to President Obama—“the single biggest threat to U.S. security” in “the short term, medium term, and long term.” e Laboratory can help prevent nuclear proliferation and deter nuclear terrorists. Its experience in designing and engineering nuclear weapons gives it the capability to help fi nd others intent on doing the same. Th is issue presents three articles on the Laboratory’s wide-ranging nonproliferation work. -
Deterring Nuclear Terrorism
Deterring Nuclear Terrorism By Robert S. Litwak Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars One Woodrow Wilson Plaza 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Washington, DC 20004-3027 www.wilsoncenter.org ISBN: 978-1-938027-59-8 October 2016 THE WILSON CENTER, chartered by Congress as the official memorial to President Woodrow Wilson, is the nation’s key nonpartisan policy forum for tackling global issues through independent research and open dialogue to inform actionable ideas for Congress, the Administration, and the broader policy community. Conclusions or opinions expressed in Center publications and programs are those of the authors and speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Center staff, fellows, trustees, advisory groups, or any individuals or organizations that provide financial support to the Center. Please visit us online at www.wilsoncenter.org. Jane Harman, Director, President, and CEO BOARD OF TRUSTEES Thomas R. Nides, Chair Public members: William D. Adams, Chairman of the National Endowment for the Humanities, Sylvia Mathews Burwell, Secretary of Health and Human Services; David Ferriero, Archivist of the United States; Carla D. Hayden, Librarian of Congress; John F. Kerry, Secretary of State; John B. King Jr., Secretary of Education; David J. Skorton, Secretary of the Smithsonian Institution. Designated appointee of the president from within the federal government: Fred P. Hochberg, Chairman and President, Export-Import Bank of the United States Private Citizen Members: Peter J. Beshar, John T. Casteen III, Thelma Duggin, Lt. Gen. Susan Helms, USAF (Ret.), Barry S. Jackson, Nathalie Rayes, Earl W. Stafford, Jane Watson Stetson WILSON NATIONAL CABINET Ambassador Joseph B. Gildenhorn & Alma Gildenhorn, Co-chairs Peter J.