The Cryosphere, 12, 123–144, 2018 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-123-2018 © Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Detecting the permafrost carbon feedback: talik formation and increased cold-season respiration as precursors to sink-to-source transitions Nicholas C. Parazoo1, Charles D. Koven2, David M. Lawrence3, Vladimir Romanovsky4, and Charles E. Miller1 1Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, 91109, USA 2Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California, USA 3National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA 4Geophysical Institute UAF, Fairbanks, Alaska, 99775, USA Correspondence: Nicholas C. Parazoo (
[email protected]) and Charles D. Miller (
[email protected]) Received: 31 August 2017 – Discussion started: 18 September 2017 Revised: 20 November 2017 – Accepted: 29 November 2017 – Published: 12 January 2018 Abstract. Thaw and release of permafrost carbon (C) due from surface dominant processes (photosynthesis and litter to climate change is likely to offset increased vegetation respiration), but sink-to-source transition dates are delayed C uptake in northern high-latitude (NHL) terrestrial ecosys- by 20–200 years by high ecosystem productivity, such that tems. Models project that this permafrost C feedback may talik peaks early (∼ 2050s, although borehole data suggest act as a slow leak, in which case detection and attribution sooner) and C source transition peaks late (∼ 2150–2200). of the feedback may be difficult. The formation of talik, The remaining C source region in cold northern Arctic per- a subsurface layer of perennially thawed soil, can acceler- mafrost, which shifts to a net source early (late 21st century), ate permafrost degradation and soil respiration, ultimately emits 5 times more C (95 PgC) by 2300, and prior to talik shifting the C balance of permafrost-affected ecosystems formation due to the high decomposition rates of shallow, from long-term C sinks to long-term C sources.