bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/496257; this version posted December 16, 2018. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under aCC-BY 4.0 International license. 1 Historical abundance and distributions of Salpa thompsoni 2 hot spots in the Southern Ocean, with projections for further 3 ocean warming 4 5 Angelika Słomska1*, Anna Panasiuk1, Agata Weydmann1, Justyna Wawrzynek1, Marta Konik2, 6 Volker Siegel3 7 1University of Gdansk, Department of Marine Plankton Research, Institute of Oceanography, 8 46 M. J. Pilsudskiego Avenue, Gdynia, Poland 9 2The Institute of Oceanology of the Polish Academy of Sciences, 10 55 Powstancow Warszawy Street, Sopot, Poland 11 3Thünen Institut für Seefischereiiegel, 12 9 Palmaille, 22767 Hamburg, Germany 13 *e-mail:
[email protected] 14 Abstract 15 Over the last three decades, a significant variability in Salpa thompsoni occurrence has been 16 observed in response to the ENSO fluctuations, changes in sea surface temperature and ice-cover 17 extent. In this study, we analyzed historical data on S. thompsoni from the SW Atlantic Southern 18 Ocean which spanned 20 years. This data series allowed to track previous fluctuations in Antarctic 19 salp abundance and distribution, combined with different environmental conditions. The results 20 revealed that Antarctic salps prefer deep, open, ice- free waters, which are characteristic of 21 Circumpolar Deep Waters. Hot spot analyses confirmed that the highest number of S. thompsoni in 22 the 1980’s were located within the areas where sea ice was present.