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Théorie Des Probabilités Et Risque Penser L’Optimisme Épistémologique Après La Catastrophe

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Théorie Des Probabilités Et Risque Penser L’Optimisme Épistémologique Après La Catastrophe Théorie des probabilités et risque Penser l’optimisme épistémologique après la catastrophe Mémoire Frédéric Dubois Maîtrise en philosophie Maître ès arts (M.A.) Québec, Canada © Frédéric Dubois, 2015 Résumé Pour Ulrich Beck, les sociétés modernes sont des « sociétés du risque ». Alors que les développements scientifiques n’ont cessé d’accroître le potentiel technique de l’homme, les succès de la science moderne ont en contrepartie produit des risques et des menaces sans précédent dans l’histoire de l’humanité. Les experts-scientifiques peuvent néanmoins espérer prévoir ces menaces à l'aide des théories probabilistes qu’ils ont eux-mêmes développées. Ainsi, la maîtrise du calcul des aléas, un triomphe de la Raison, semble nous donner un pouvoir d’agir contre l’éventualité de l’actualisation des risques. « Savoir, c’est pouvoir », selon la formule de Francis Bacon. Calculer les risques devrait donc, selon cette même logique, nous donner ce pouvoir d’éviter le pire. Néanmoins, comme Tchernobyl et, plus récemment, Fukushima nous l'ont appris, l’inattendu peut toujours frapper. Ainsi, malgré la prétendue précision de nos calculs probabilistes, le pire demeure possible. Un optimiste pourrait toujours rétorquer que l’actualisation du pire nous permettra de perfectionner nos outils de prédictions. Pour parler en termes leibniziens, une catastrophe est un mal pour un plus grand Bien. Mais que dire alors de la logique des probabilités une fois l’aveu de l’échec de nos calculs? Est-il intrinsèquement impossible d’arriver à un calcul du risque sans risque? Faut-il alors se résigner à cette limite intrinsèque de notre savoir? Ces dernières questions nous conduisent non seulement à questionner la logique interne du calcul des probabilités, mais également la conception moderne du risque qui est au cœur des développements scientifiques modernes. i Abstract According to Ulrich Beck, modern societies are “risk societies”. On one hand, modernity has been the cradle of scientific development and, in the wake, the triumph of Reason. On another hand, its scientific successes gave rise to new technologies with such potential risks that some thinkers come to fear the worst for our modern societies. Yet, scientific-experts may hope to prevent and, therefore, rejoice the power to act against the eventuality of such disasters. Indeed, since the refinement of probabilistic theories, science now possesses a powerful tool to foresight the risks it produces. “Knowledge is power”, as Francis Bacon’s credo suggests. Hence, to calculate risks should be sufficient to seize the threats mankind is facing and, thereby, act upon it. But, what if, despite the more precise calculus possible, the worst was still to happen? As Chernobyl and, more recently, Fukushima reminded us, hazard might still have his way over the human ingenuity. Nuclear energy might be a simple example among an increasing number of emerging risk technologies. Still, the gravity of the consequences of its recent failures might whereas be the display of a deeper modern threat. We think we can learn from our experiences and, in such a way, as Leibniz would have said, a catastrophe becomes a prerequisite evil for a greater Good. Can we really learn from our experiences in a way we can, without a doubt, avoid a further catastrophe? Is there not in the epistemological optimism internal logic a greater threat that is obscured by our conception of risk as a mathematical concept? We then have to question not only the internal logic of an optimistic epistemology, but as well the modern constructed concept of risk as it presents itself as the core of modern developments. iii Table des matières Résumé ................................................................................................................................... i Abstract ................................................................................................................................ iii Table des matières ............................................................................................................... iv Remerciements .................................................................................................................... vii Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 1 Première partie ................................................................................................................... 11 Introduction..................................................................................................................... 13 1. L’étymologie du concept de risque ............................................................................ 16 1.1. La thèse moderniste ............................................................................................... 16 1.2. Le roman nautique ................................................................................................. 17 1.3. Rixacare et rhizhikhon ........................................................................................... 19 1.4. Rizq et la Providence .............................................................................................. 20 2. Le commerce médiéval et le concept de risque ........................................................ 23 2.1. Le droit et la mobilité marchande .......................................................................... 24 2.2. La « guerre juste » et le « juste commerce » .......................................................... 28 2.3. La politique machiavélique et la fortune ............................................................... 32 2.4. L’expansion du mode de pensée marchand ............................................................ 35 3. La prise en main du destin de l'homme .................................................................... 39 3.1. Le mythe adamique ................................................................................................ 40 3.2. D’une veracitas dei à la veracitas naturea ............................................................ 42 3.3. Le Grand Horloger et la théodicée ......................................................................... 45 3.4. La laïcisation du mal – Le tremblement de terre de Lisbonne (1755) ................... 48 3.5. La fin du finalisme? ............................................................................................... 51 4. La conception moderne du risque ............................................................................. 54 4.1. Pascal et De Fermat – Le risque et le jeu ............................................................... 55 4.2. Probabilité et confiance .......................................................................................... 57 4.3. Mutation de vocabulaire ........................................................................................ 59 iv 4.4. Définir la rationalisation du risque et de la peur .................................................... 62 4.5. Du hasard insaisissable au risque calculé ............................................................... 66 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 69 Deuxième partie .................................................................................................................. 71 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 73 1. La catastrophe de Fukushima .................................................................................... 75 1.1. Retracer les événements de Fukushima .................................................................. 77 1.2. Les mesures de sécurité à Fukushima .................................................................... 82 1.3. Une catastrophe « inattendue » ou « prévisible » ? ................................................ 84 1.4. L’expérience passée ................................................................................................ 86 2. Les théories probabilistes ........................................................................................... 91 2.1. L’univers incertain .................................................................................................. 92 2.2. Le calcul des aléas et des conséquences ................................................................. 95 2.3. Typologie du risque ................................................................................................ 98 2.4. L’événement particulier ........................................................................................ 102 3. Prévoir l’imprévisible catastrophe .......................................................................... 104 3.1. Biais cognitif du risque ......................................................................................... 105 3.2. L’arbre des probabilités ........................................................................................ 106 3.3. Le conséquentialisme ouvert ................................................................................ 108 3.4. Le risque subjectif et la représentation du risque ................................................. 112 4. L’oubli du risque ....................................................................................................... 115 4.1. La centrale, un système « fixe » ? .......................................................................
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