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Peak Sport (1968.HK) BUY 13 Feb 2015 Sportswear 4Q14 Operational Results Still Promising

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Peak Sport (1968.HK) BUY 13 Feb 2015 Sportswear 4Q14 Operational Results Still Promising Company Update Date Industry Peak Sport (1968.HK) BUY 13 Feb 2015 Sportswear 4Q14 Operational Results Still Promising China operation is still in good shape Company Update Company Closing Price Target Price It was the 5th straight season that Peak Sport (“Peak” thereafter) had delivered mid-teens yoy growth in wholesale order value. As HK$2.18 HK$2.60 we had expected, strong sales of Peak’s professional gear such as Key Data basketball shoes and running shoes (see figure 6) again was the Outstanding Shares 2,098 mn boost to the latest sales fair performance. The retail channel re- mained efficient with retailers reporting SSSG for the 6th consec- Market Cap. HK$ 4,574 mn utive quarter. Meanwhile, 15+ distributors were added in 2014 to 3-mth Avg Daily Volume 1.4 mn further boost the efficiency of the distribution channel. 12-mth High / Low HK$2.45/ HK$1.52 14PE 13.2x Overseas expansion plan on track PB 0.9x Peak is on track with the execution of its overseas expansion plan. Div. Yield 7.3% It sponsored 2014 FIBA Basketball World Cup which was held in ROE 6.0% Aug & Sep 2014, and its marketing activities during the tourna- ROA 4.7% ment were well received by target customer groups (see figure 7). Net Debt / Equity net cash Since 4Q14, the company has been selling its basketball shoes on Eastbay, Foot Locker’s largest digital direct-to-customers arm Major Shareholder which targets elite high school and club athletes in the US (see Xu’ s family 68.4% figure 8). On top of the promising sales results at Eastbay, Peak Source: Bloomberg, Emperor Securities Research soft launched its basketball shoes at footlocker.com in Jan 2015, in -line with the company’s strategy to enlarge its international op- eration (see figure 9). Share Price of Peak HK$ 3 Maintain BUY We lower our estimated earnings growth for 2014 by 3 ppt on milder than expected expansion of Peak’s overseas operation in 2H14 though the overall overseas expansion scheme is still on 2 track. Trading at 13.3x 14PE and 7.3% dividend yield, Peak's valua- tion is still undemanding given the prospect for margin improve- ment and its stabilized China operation. We maintain BUY on the 1 Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 stock with a TP of HK$2.60 which implies a 16x 14PE. Change (%) 1-mth 3-mth 6-mth 12-mth Financial Information YE: Dec 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E Peak 2.8 -1.8 -0.9 4.3 Revenue (RMB mn) 4,647 2,903 2,613 2,896 3,338 MSCI China Growth 9.4% -37.5% -10.0% 10.8% 15.3% -0.7 5.1 1.3 12.5 Index Net profit (RMB mn) 778 311 244 276 319 Source: Bloomberg Growth -5.4% -60.1% -21.3% 13.1% 15.6% EPS (RMB cents) 37.07 14.80 11.64 13.16 15.22 Emperor Securities Research DPS (HK$ cents) 14.00 10.00 16.00 9.23 10.67 Tel : (852) 2836 2763 PE (x) 4.7 11.9 15.1 13.3 11.5 Fax : (852) 2831 8089 Div. yield (%) 6.4 4.6 7.3 4.2 4.9 Email : [email protected] Source: Company data, Emperor Securities Research WWW.EMPERORCAPITAL.COM 1 Peak Sport Products Co., Limited Emperor Securities Limited Figure 1: Peak’s Sales Fair Results Product season Sales fair date YoY order growth by value (unless stated otherwise) 1Q14 Jul 2013 na 2Q14 Nov 2013 high single-digit (vs Peak’s 2Q13 sales) 3Q14 Feb 2014 mid-teens Peak reported mid-teens yoy growth in wholesale order value for 5 consec- 4Q14 Apr 2014 mid-teens utive seasons. 1Q15 Jun 2014 mid-teens 2Q15 Sep 2014 mid-teens 3Q15 Dec 2014 mid-teens Source: Company data Figure 2: ASPs of Peak’s Products Footwear Apparel Financial year / Event YoY growth YoY growth 4Q14 sales fair in Apr 2014 low single-digit mid single-digit ASP changes in 3Q15 were driven by 1Q15 sales fair in Jun 2014 flat flat the seasonality factor. 2Q15 sales fair in Sep 2014 flat flat 3Q15 sales fair in Dec 2014 low single-digit negative low single-digit Source: Company data Figure 3: Peak’s Distribution Channels in China Date Number of retail outlets Number of exclusive distributors 30 Sep 2012 6,739 na 31 Dec 2012 6,483 59 Peak started to consolidate its domes- 31 Mar 2013 6,358 na tic distribution channels in 2012 by 30 Jun 2013 6,194 na closing down non-performing retail outlets. The consolidation is on track 30 Sep 2013 6,088 na to meet the management’s target 31 Dec 2013 6,012 66 that the number of retail outlets would 31 Mar 2014 6,016 na maintain at 2013’s level. 30 Jun 2014 6,000 na 30 Sep 2014 5,999 na 31 Dec 2014 6,004 na Source: Company data WWW.EMPERORCAPITAL.COM 2 Peak Sport Products Co., Limited Emperor Securities Limited Figure 4: Same Store Sales Growth of Peak’s Retailers Period Growth 1Q13 0.0% 2Q13 0.0% 3Q13 low single-digit Peak’s retailers saw same store sales 4Q13 low single-digit growth for 6 consecutive quarters. 1Q14 low single-digit 2Q14 low single-digit 3Q14 low single-digit 4Q14 low single-digit Source: Company data Figure 5: Peer Comparison Security Net profit Revenue Div. 2014 P/B Net Market Code at Company growth growth yield P/E gearing cap. HKEx in 1H14 in 1H14 (%) (X) (x) (%) (HK$ mn) 1968.HK Peak 34.6% 10.1% 7.3 13.3 0.9 net cash 4,574 Peak outperformed its comparable 1361.HK 361 Degrees 28.3% 4.6% 2.7 10.5 0.8 net cash 4,735 peers in 1H14 as shown by its top line and bottom line performances. Its 1368.HK Xtep -16.6% 1.8% 6.3 8.1 1.0 net cash 5,685 stocks offer the highest yield among peers as well. consecutive 2331.HK Li Ning 8.0% 0.0 na 1.3 11.3 5,673 loss Average na na 6.1% 4.1 na 1.0 na 5,167 Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Emperor Securities Research Risks ▇ Uncertain outlook for Europe’s economy ▇ Political instability in Southeast Asia and Africa ▇ Keen competition in China’s sportswear market ▇ China’s economic slowdown WWW.EMPERORCAPITAL.COM 3 Peak Sport Products Co., Limited Emperor Securities Limited Figure 6: Peak’s Basketball Series (Left) And E-running 2 (Right) Source: Media, Emperor Securities Research Figure 7: Peak’s Advertisement at 2014 FIBA Basketball World Cup Source: FIBA WWW.EMPERORCAPITAL.COM 4 Peak Sport Products Co., Limited Emperor Securities Limited Figure 8: Peak’s Basketball Series at eastbay.com Source: Eastbay Figure 9: Peak’s Basketball Series at footlocker.com Source: Foot Locker WWW.EMPERORCAPITAL.COM 5 Peak Sport Products Co., Limited Emperor Securities Limited Company Background Peak designs, manufactures, and markets athletic footwear, apparel and accessory products under the “PEAK” brand. The group sells its products in China via 69 domestic distributors and exports the output to over 80 countries via 60 overseas wholesalers. It has 3 production facilities located in Fujian and Jiangxi with total annual production capacities of 13mn pieces of apparel products and 11mn pairs of footwear products. For the revenue mix of latest results, domestic / international segment accounted for 77%/ 23% respectively while footwear/ apparel/ accessories account- ed for 40%/ 58%/ 2% respectively. Figure 10: Major Milestones of Peak Year Milestone 1991 The “PEAK” brand was launched. Peak became the official marketing partner of National Basketball Associa- 2007 tion (NBA) in China. 2008 Peak had an association with Fédération Internationale de Basketball (FIBA). 2009 Peak went public on HKEx. 2010 Peak had an association with Women’s Tennis Association (WTA). 2011 Peak opened its U.S. headquarters in Los Angeles. Peak signed an endorsement agreement with four-time NBA All-Star Tony 2013 Parker. Source: Company data Figure 11: Peak’s Marketing Partners NBA FIBA Miami Heat San Antonio Spurs Houston Rockets German Basketball Federation Basketball Australia Basketball New Zealand Basketball Federation of Montenegro Basketball Federation of Serbia Icelandic Basketball Federation Cameroon Basketball Federation Côte d’Ivoire Basketball Federation Lebanese Basketball Federation Iran Basketball Federation Women’s Tennis Association The National Olympic Committee of New Zealand The National Olympic Committee of Slovenia The National Olympic Committee of Lebanon The National Olympic Committee of Jordan China Central Television (CCTV) The US International University Sports Federation Source: Company data WWW.EMPERORCAPITAL.COM 6 Peak Sport Products Co., Limited Emperor Securities Limited Income Statement Cash Flow Statement YE: Dec (RMB mn) 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E YE: Dec (RMB mn) 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E Revenue 4,647 2,903 2,613 2,896 3,338 PBT 937 406 390 432 500 Cost of sales (2,814) (1,845) (1,686) (1,795) (2,053) Depreciation 31 39 43 43 43 Gross profit 1,833 1,058 927 1,101 1,285 Change in w orking cap. (472) (158) 167 (42) (115) Other income 31 45 62 84 99 Taxation and others (186) (106) (93) (190) (229) Distribution expenses (713) (461) (334) (382) (457) Operating cashflow 311 181 507 243 199 Administrative expenses (213) (228) (252) (352) (405) Capex (229) (183) (75) (56) (56) EBIT 938 414 403 451 522 M&A/ disposals 0 0 0 0 0 Finance expenses (2) (8) (13) (19) (22) Bank deposits and others (83) (313) (780) 42 42 Profit before tax 937 406 390 432 500 Investing cashflow (312) (496) (855) (15) (15) Taxation (159) (95) (146) (156) (180) Change in debt 161 335 270 204 150 Net profit 778 311 244 276 319 New share issues 1 0 0 0 0 EPS (RMB cents) 37.07 14.80 11.64 13.16 15.22 Dividend paid (227) (272) (217) (152) (176) DPS (HK$ cents) 14.00 10.00 16.00 9.23 10.67 Others (1) (7) (14) (19) (22) Source: Company data, Emperor Securities Research Financing cashflow (66) 56 38 33 (48) Change in cash (67) (260) (310) 261 137 Forex effect 5 (6) 6 6 6 Beginning cash 2,566 2,503 2,237 1,933 2,200 Ending cash 2,504 2,237 1,933 2,200 2,343 Source: Company data, Emperor Securities Research Balance Sheet Financial Ratios YE: Dec (RMB mn) 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E YE: Dec 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E Cash & CE 2,503 2,237 1,933 2,200 2,343 Profitability (%) Trade & other rec.
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