AMINE ARLY ARNING YSTEM WORK MAURITANIA F E W S NET A USAID project managed by Chemonics International Inc. TEL: (222) 525 39 18 FAX: (222) 525 39 18 E-mail: [email protected] MONTHLY REPORT FOR JUNE 2002 RAPPORT MENSUEL DU MOIS DE JUIN 2002 This report covers the period from May 25 to June 30, 2002 Summary Rainfall totals since the end of May are still too low to trigger the start-up of farm work, except in a narrow strip in the southern reaches of the country along the Malian border between Maghama Moughataa in Gorgol Wilaya and Djiguenni Moughataa in Hodh El Chargui Wilaya. Farmers there began planting crops at the end of the first dekad (in southern Guidimakha, Hodh El Chargui and Hodh El Gharbi Willayas) and during the second dekad (in Assaba Wilaya) of July. There has been little if any rainfall in any other Moughataas, particularly in those classified as extremely food insecure (Moughataas in livestock-raising areas of Trarza Wilaya, the Senegal River Valley, Aftout and central Hodh El Chargui and Hodh El Gharbi Wilayas). Grazing conditions continue to deteriorate in the western and central parts of the country, where many herders are being forced to resort to commercially-sold animal feed to try and save weakened animals (primarily cattle and sheep). Moreover, losses of cattle in Aftout and Trarza in January of this year were colossal. The plunge in cattle prices (by 31 per cent) is a reflection of the dilemma faced by herders caught in a vicious cycle. In effect, with their sickly animals unable to make the trek into Mali and inadequate pasture reserves to keep them alive, the only way for herders in the western and central parts to cut their losses is to sell their animals. In contrast, the situation of herders in the south and eastern parts of the country is steadily improving. The degree of food insecurity is steadily mounting. Despite appeals for assistance by the World Food Program (WFP) and FEWS NET, a number of donors have indicated that they intend to wait until the government declares a state of emergency before coming forward. Yet, the latest bulletin from the Food Security Observatory (OSA) talks about a surge in malnutrition in a number of wilayas and fresh outbreaks of a number of diseases (malaria, diarrheal diseases) in the wake of the deterioration in food security and recourse to survival strategies by virtually all households in rural areas of the country. Food access in the north and in urban slum areas continues to deteriorate as prices for staple foods move steadily upward. Already extended urban households continue to take in latecomers as mass rural-urban migration picks up with the delay in the start-up of the growing season in Aftout and central Hodh El Chargui and Hodh El Gharbi. In contrast, in Guidimakha, there are reports of a heavy reverse migration from large cities as people return to help with cultivation. Prices for traditional coarse grains are falling on markets in border areas and in Nouakchott, while prices for imported foods increased between May and June. The stabilization of sorghum prices in Brakna Security Commissariat (CSA) into the local market. Meat prices are still climbing, but fish prices have leveled off since May. Wilaya I. NATURAL CONDITIONS is attributable to the infusion of part of the wheat distributed by the Food I A. Rainfall The rainy season is getting off to a late start in farming and livestock-raising areas of the country, particularly in areas already classified as extremely food insecure (such as Kankossa, Selibaby and Kobonni), where rainfall totals are way below average ( AND PRODUCTION FACTORS Figure 1. Rainfall Conditions as of June 20, 2002: Comparison with 2001 and Average (1980-95) 90 80 70 60 Figure 1). 50 Millimeters40 30 2001 20 2002 10 Average 0 MAGHAMA KANOSSA Theoretically, wet-soil planting activitiesBA inRK sEOL Bouly) and southeastern Gorgol (Maghama rain on June 5th. In Hodh El Chargui and HodhSE LIBABY crops in sandy soils, wet planting activities may haveOU startedLD YEN upGE after the rain on June 17th. KOBONNI I B. Grazing Conditions FEWS NET/Mauritania Source: AGRHYMET TOUIL Grazing conditions are especially poor in Trarza, Brakna, and northwestern Gorgol,DJIG whereUENI problems of sparse vegetation were aggr AMOURJ rainstorms in January. Conditions throughout the rest of the country are generally good, except in Tintane and Kiffa outhern Guidimakha (Selibaby, Ghabou, Wompou, pastureland. Moughataa El Gharbi, where farmers customarily dry-plant ) should be getting underway after the Moughataas , where brushavated fires byhave the burned damage several caused hectares by unseasonable of With the onset of the rains, fresh grass is already sprouting in the southeastern corner of Maghama Moughataa in Gorgol and along the Malian border (Figure 2). Large numbers of animals are moving towards these areas from Gorgol and Assaba. Enfeebled animals in Trarza and Brakna are unable to travel long distances, and local herders are forced to substitute animal feed for pasture in an effort to save their herds. Figure 2: Changes in Vegetation Conditions based on NDVI for the second dekad of June of 2002 1 2 3 June 11-20, 2002 Compared with average Compared with June 11-20, 2001 Graphic by FEWS NET Mauritania Source of data: NASA, USGS Normalized Difference Vegetation Indices (NDVI) for the southwestern part of the country (the Senegal River Valley and livestock-raising areas of Rosso, Méderdra and R’kiz Moughataas) are way below average. The same is true for the entire northern portion of farming and livestock-raising areas of Assaba, Hodh El Chargui, and Hodh El Gharbi. In contrast, vegetation indices for the entire area running along the Malian border between Maghama Moughataa in Gorgol and Bassikounou Moughataa in Hodh El Chargui are clearly above average. Comparison of the current dekad with the average and with the same ten-day period of 2001 shows that current conditions are below-average and worse than at the same time last year except along the south-eastern border. Migrating animal herds are still sticking to their regular routes. Herders have begun returning to Mauritania from grazing lands in Mali. I C. Production Update by Type of Farming System At this point in the season, available information refers exclusively to the following two types of farming systems: Diéri (rainfed upland crops): Planting activities are already underway in southern Guidimakha, Hodh El Chargui and Hodh El Gharbi Wilayas and in Kankossa Moughataa in Assaba Wilaya. According to information furnished by regional offices of the Ministry of Rural Development and Environment (MDRE), farmers are earnestly preparing to plant early variety seeds in depression areas. Irrigated crops: This year's hot off season (February to June) was especially mediocre in all regions of the country, particularly for village cooperatives. Only small areas were planted due to a combination of inadequate rainfall and the presence of large numbers of stray animals. I D. Assessment of Conditions in Agropastoralist Areas The only part of the country in which the growing season is effectively underway is the far south- east, along the Malian border. I D1. Areas in Good Condition Hodh El Chargui and Guidimakha: Rainfall during the second dekad of June was followed by the emergence of the first seedlings in Hodh El Chargui and an improvement in the water balance for crops and pasture in southern Guidimakha. Improvements in Normalized Difference Vegetation Indexes (Figure 2, Image 2) in neighboring areas of Mali are reassuring to herders in both these regions. Assaba: The only Moughataa in good condition this early in the season is Kankossa Moughataa. Gorgol: The heavy rains on June 5th (61 mm) were followed by reports of the emergence of crops and the sprouting of fresh pasture. However, crops and pasturelands in sandy soils are beginning to feel the effects of the dry spell during the second dekad of June. I D2: Areas in Average Condition Comparatively speaking, conditions throughout the central portion of crop and stock-farming areas of Hodh El Chargui, Hodh El Gharbi and Assaba are average. I D3. Areas in Poor Condition Conditions in farming areas of the Senegal River Valley and Aftout are still poor. II. FOOD SITUATION AND OUTLOOK The Programming, Monitoring and Evaluation Office (DPSE) attached to the Ministry of Rural Development and Environment has just published its final figures for the 2001-02 crop year. According to these figures, net nationwide grain production is only 88,669 MT, versus the projected figure of 120,757 MT. This 26.6 per cent shortfall confirms the warning first issued by FEWS NET last December, at the end of the growing season. This brings the grain deficit up from the 172,501 MT estimate issued in April to 204,589 MT, Despite the larger than expected deficit and repeated warnings from the World Food Program and FEWS NET, the donor community is still slow in responding to appeals and the WFP has yet to raise the US$7.5 million in aid needed to help the 246,000 inhabitants of Mauritania classified as food insecure. As of June 23, WFP had succeeded in raising only US$500,000. It has advanced US$1,000,000 from its own reserves to attend to the country's most pressing need, until donor aid is forthcoming from the donor community. II A. Areas in Good Condition The food situation is gradually improving in all areas that are experiencing above-average rainfall, as access to water resources becomes less of a problem (rainwater being used for human as well as animal consumption) and new vegetative growth provides fresh pasture.