Carolyn Maloney for SenateSenateCarolyn
Survey of NewYork Democratic PrimaryVoters
Douglas E. Schoen June 3, 2009 OverviewOverview This poll was conducted with a representative sample of New York State Democratic Primary voters with 600 interviews. The fieldwork took place between May 27th and May 31st, 2009. The purpose of this poll is to test the viability of Carolyn Maloney’s candidacy for the U.S. Senate in the 2010 election. The margin of sampling error for this poll is +/-4%, and larger for subgroups.
2 OverviewOverview The contrast is clear between Carolyn Maloney, who is an effective legislator who has created new jobs, stood up for women’s issues, authored credit card reform legislation, and improved the education system, and Kirsten Gillibrand, who has been an ineffective legislator. Gillibrand is too conservative, pro-gun, anti-immigration, and pro-tobacco, working on the side of the tobacco companies and lying about it. She has no record compared to Maloney, who has one of the best records of any member of Congress representing the state of NewYork.
3 OverviewOverview Carolyn Maloney is well-positioned to challenge Kirsten Gillibrand for U.S. Senator, as Gillibrand is vulnerable. Maloney leads Gillibrand in the horserace, 34% to 32%. Maloney has a strong lead against Gillibrand in NewYork City and the suburbs, and is only losing in upstate NewYork.
Maloney leads Gillibrand 46% to 21% in NewYork City. She leads Gillibrand 37% to 24% in the suburbs. She trails Gillibrand 15% to 51% in upstate NewYork.
4 OverviewOverview Carolyn Maloney’s two-point lead (34%-32%) over Kirsten Gillibrand jumps to 15 points, 43% to 28%, after voters heard the arguments in support of Maloney. Maloney’s lead over Gillibrand then jumped to 24 points, 49% to 25%, after voters heard the arguments against Gillibrand and Maloney.
5 OverviewOverview 50% 49%
43%
40%
34% 34% 32% Maloney 30% 29% Gillibrand 28% 27% 25% Not sure
20% Horserace Horserace after Horserace after positive Maloney negative Maloney and arguments Gillibrand arguments
6 OverviewOverview Three-quarters of voters believe that things in the country are headed in the right direction. However, over half say that things in NewYork are on the wrong track. 27% say that Senator Gillibrand has done her job well enough to deserve re-election. 29% say that it is time for her to be replaced by somebody else.
7 OverviewOverview Voters believe that the economy is by far the most important issue facing NewYork State. They are also concerned about taxes and the cost of living, and health care. The top reasons to support Gillibrand are that she supports President Obama (21%), and that she is hard-working (16%). The top reason to oppose Gillibrand is because she is too conservative (23%).
8 OverviewOverview Kirsten Gillibrand’s ties to Governor David Paterson make her less electable. 42% say they are less likely to vote for Gillibrand because she is close to Paterson, while 28% say they are more likely to vote for her. 72% of voters say they want the person who is elected U.S. Senator from NewYork to be independent from Governor Paterson.
9 OverviewOverview Over half believe it is important to elect a woman to the seat that Hillary Clinton held. Only 44% believe it is important to elect an upstate New Yorker to the Senate. Three-quarters believe it is important to elect a candidate who has represented diverse communities and minority neighborhoods during his or her career.
10 OverviewOverview 72% believe it is important to elect someone who is from their part of the state. And 84% say it is important to pass the Equal Rights Amendment for women, which Maloney has been advocating for. Two-thirds say it is very important.
11 OverviewOverview The most convincing reasons to vote for Maloney:
She helped secure a bill to provide coverage of an annual screening mammography under Medicare Plan B, and strongly supports increasing federal funding for medical research (84%). She authored legislation that provides federal funding that rids the backlog of rape kits (83%). She has voted for laws that have helped create 16,000 new jobs in NewYork State (82%).
12 OverviewOverview She authored comprehensive credit card reform giving the consumers the ability to understand their account and be empowered to control them, banning excessive fees and deceptive marketing practices (81%). She has fought throughout her career to improve the education system – by working to reduce class size, repair crumbling schools, raise standards, and increase government support for the arts and cultural institutions (81%).
After hearing positive Maloney arguments, Maloney leads Gillibrand in the horserace 43% to 28%.
13 OverviewOverview The arguments against Maloney received a weak amount of support. The most convincing reasons to vote against Maloney:
She has fought against school choice and merit pay, and has voted against giving law enforcement the tools necessary to fight the threat of terrorism (50%). She is one of the top 20 wealthiest members of Congress representing Manhattan’s upper east side, putting her out of touch with the working class (44%). She is not a heavyweight in Congress, focusing most of her energy on an Equal Rights Amendment for women that has received little attention from other members of Congress (34%).
14 OverviewOverview The most convincing reasons to vote against Kirsten Gillibrand:
She is too conservative (pro-gun and anti-immigration) and out of touch with the views of mainstream NewYorkers (69%). She worked for the tobacco industry as a private attorney helping them deal with criminal probes and civil lawsuits from smoking victims (64%). She has the most anti-gay record of any Democratic legislator in New York State (64%).
After hearing arguments against Maloney and Gillibrand, Maloney leads Gillibrand in the horserace 49% to 25%.
15 OverviewOverview Thus, Carolyn Maloney is in a strong position to challenge Kirsten Gillibrand and capitalize on Gillibrand’s vulnerabilities.
16 Mood of the CountryCountryMood 77% of NewYork State 90% Democratic Primary voters 80% 77% say that things in the 70% country are headed in the 60% right direction. 50% Right 40% direction 15% say they are on the 30% Wrong wrong track. track 20% 15% 10% 0% Mood of the Country
17 Mood of the StateStateMood 60% Just 28% of NewYork State 56% Democratic Primary voters 50% say that things in NewYork are headed in the right 40% direction. Right 30% 28% direction 56% say they are on the Wrong wrong track. 20% track
10%
0% Mood of the State
18 Mood of the StateStateMood 37% of NewYork State 50% Democratic Primary voters say that the economy in 40% 40% 37% NewYork is headed in the Right right direction. direction 30% Wrong 40% say it is on the wrong 24% track track. Not sure One-quarter are not sure. 20%
10% Mood of the State
19 FavorabilityFavorability First we tested the favorability of Carolyn Maloney and Kirsten Gillibrand. Maloney’s favorability is 39%, with 11% unfavorable and half not sure. Gillibrand’s favorability is 42%, one-quarter unfavorable and 35% not sure.
20 FavorabilityFavorability –– Carolyn MaloneyMaloneyCarolyn 60% 39% of NewYork State 51% Democratic Primary voters 50% have a favorable impression 39% 40% of Carolyn Maloney. Favorable 11% have an unfavorable 30% Unfavorable impression. 20% Not Sure 51% are not sure. 11% 10%
0% Carolyn Maloney
21 FavorabilityFavorability –– Kirsten GillibrandGillibrandKirsten 60% 42% of NewYork State Democratic Primary voters 50% have a favorable impression 42% of Kirsten Gillibrand. 40% 35% Favorable 24% have an unfavorable Unfavorable 30% impression. 24% Not Sure 35% are not sure. 20%
10% Kirsten Gillibrand
22 U.S. Senate HorseraceHorseraceU.S. –– New York Democratic PrimaryPrimaryNew 40% If the 2010 NewYork Democratic primary 30% Kirsten election for U.S. Senator 27% Gillibrand 24% was held today, 27% say 21% Carolyn Maloney they would vote for 20% 17% Carolyn Kirsten Gillibrand, 21% McCarthy 11% say they would vote for Some Other 10% Candidate Carolyn Maloney, and 17% Not sure say they would vote for
0% Carolyn McCarthy. NY Democratic One-quarter are not sure. Primary
23 U.S. Senate HorseraceHorseraceU.S. –– New York Democratic PrimaryPrimaryNew 40% If the 2010 NewYork Democratic primary 35% 34% 34% election for U.S. Senator 32% was held today and just Carolyn Maloney Kirsten Gillibrand and 30% Kirsten Carolyn Maloney were Gillibrand running for U.S. Senator, 25% Not Sure 34% say they would vote for Maloney and 32% say they would vote for 20% Gillibrand. NY Democratic Primary 34% are not sure.
24 Kirsten Gillibrand ReelectionReelectionKirsten 60% 27 % of NewYork State 50% 44% Democratic voters believe 40% Deserves that Senator Gillibrand has reelection done her job well enough 27%29% 30% to deserve reelection. Time for 20% her to be 29% believe that it’s time replaced 10% Not sure for her to be replaced by 0% somebody else. Has Kirsten 44% are not sure. Gillibrand done her job well enough to deserve reelection?
25 What do you like the most aboutaboutWhat Kirsten Gillibrand?Gillibrand?Kirsten When we asked Democratic primary voters what they like most about Kirsten Gillibrand…
21% say she supports President Obama 16% say she is hard-working 13% say she’s a fighter for NewYork
26 What do you like the most aboutaboutWhat Kirsten Gillibrand?Gillibrand?Kirsten
What do you like the most about Kirsten Gillibrand? She supports President Obama 21% She is hard-working 16% She’s a fighter for NewYork 13% She’s an independent leader 5% Some other reason 12% Not sure 34% 27 What do you like the least aboutaboutWhat Kirsten Gillibrand?Gillibrand?Kirsten When we asked Democratic primary voters what they like least about Kirsten Gillibrand…
23% say she is too conservative 9% say she is out of touch with NewYorkers 9% say she does not have enough experience to be a Senator
28 What do you like the least aboutaboutWhat Kirsten Gillibrand?Gillibrand?Kirsten
What do you like the least about Kirsten Gillibrand? She is too conservative 23% She is out of touch with NewYorkers 9% She does not have enough experience to be a Senator 9% She flip flops on issues 8% She is from the wrong part of the state 7% Some other reason 12% Not sure 32% 29 New York GovernorGovernorNew –– Democratic Primary HorseraceHorseraceDemocratic 80% 71% If there was a Democratic 70% primary in 2010 for New 60% York governor between 50% David Paterson and 40% David Andrew Cuomo, 16% say Paterson they would vote for 30% Andrew Cuomo Paterson, while 71% say 20% 16% they would vote for 10% Cuomo. 0% NY Governor Democratic Primary
30 Senator Gillibrand’s Job ApprovalApprovalSenator
60% 56% 56% of NewYork 50% Democratic Primary voters approve of the way that 40% Kirsten Gillibrand is 30% 27% Approve performing her job as U.S. 20% 17% Disapprove Senator. Not sure 17% of voters disapprove. 10% One-quarter are not sure. 0% Kirsten Gillibrand's job approval
31 Attorney General Cuomo’s Job ApprovalApprovalAttorney 90% 83% 83% of NewYork 80% Democratic Primary voters 70% approve of the way that 60% Andrew Cuomo is 50% performing his job as 40% Approve Attorney General. 30% Disapprove 17% of voters disapprove. 20% 12% 10% 0% Andrew Cuomo's job approval
32 What is the most important issueissueWhat facing New York State?State?facing We then asked voters what they think is the most important issue facing NewYork State. The top issues are:
The economy and corruption (88%) Taxes and the cost of living (29%) Health care (26%) Schools and education (23%)
33 What is the most important issueissueWhat facing New York State?State?facing
Reasons – two choices provided, responses combined The economy and jobs 88% Taxes and the cost of living 29% Health care 26% Schools and education 23% Ethics and corruption 20% Terrorism 6% The environment 4% Immigration 3%
34 Crime 1% What is the most important issueissueWhat facing your local community?community?facing We also asked voters what they think is the most important issue facing their local community. The issues that voters say are most important are identical to the most important ones facing NewYork State:
The economy and corruption 53%) Taxes and the cost of living (16%) Health care (14%) Schools and education (8%)
35 What is the most important issueissueWhat facing your local community?community?facing
Reasons The economy and jobs 53% Taxes and the cost of living 16% Health care 14% Schools and education 8% Ethics and corruption 4% The environment 3% Immigration 1% Crime 1% Terrorism 0% 36 Governor David Paterson and CarolineCarolineGovernor KennedyKennedy 50% 49% Half of Democratic
40% primary voters are less favorable of Paterson 30% 26% More because of the way he favorable 20% handled Caroline 15% Less Kennedy’s possible favorable 10% Not sure appointment to the U.S. 0% Senate, while 15% are Paterson's handling more favorable of Paterson. of Caroline Kennedy's possible One-quarter are not sure. Senate appointment
37 Governor Paterson’s appointment ofofGovernor Gillibrand to the U.S. SenateSenateGillibrand 50% Voters are split on David 45% Paterson’s decision to
40% appoint Gillibrand to 35% 35% It was a Hillary Clinton’s vacated 35% good choice 30% Senate seat. 30% It was a mistake 35% think it was a good 25% Not sure choice, while 35% think it 20% was a mistake. Paterson's 30% are not sure. appointment of Gillibrand to U.S. Senate
38 Kirsten Gillibrand’s ties to DavidDavidKirsten PatersonPaterson 50% 49% 42% of Democratic
40% primary voters are less likely to vote for Gillibrand 30% 26% More for U.S. Senator because favorable 20% she is close to Governor 15% Less Paterson. favorable 10% Not sure 28% are more likely to 0% vote for Gillibrand because Paterson's handling of her ties to Paterson. of Caroline Kennedy's possible 30% are not sure. Senate appointment
39 U.S. Senator from New York andandU.S. Governor PatersonPatersonGovernor 80% 72% Generally speaking, 16% 70% want the person who is 60% elected U.S. Senator from 50% Close to Governor NewYork to be close to 40% Paterson Governor Paterson. 30% 72% want the person to be 16% Independent 20% from independent from 10% Governor Paterson Governor Paterson. 0% Person elected U.S. Senator from NewYork
40 Constituencies and thetheConstituencies U.S. Senate SeatSeatU.S. Next we asked voters about the characteristics that they think the next U.S. Senator from NewYork should have.
54% think it is important to elect a woman to the Senate seat that Hillary Clinton held. Half think it is not important to elect an upstate NewYorker to the U.S. Senate. Three-quarters think it is important to elect a someone who has represented diverse communities and minority neighborhoods. 72% think it is important to elect someone from their part of the state.
41 Constituencies and thetheConstituencies U.S. Senate SeatSeatU.S. 60%
54% 50%
44%
40% Important Not important
30%
20% Elect a woman to the Senate seat that Hillary Clinton held
42 Constituencies and thetheConstituencies U.S. Senate SeatSeatU.S. 60%
50% 50%
44% 40% Important Not important 30%
20% Elect an upstate NewYorker to the U.S. Senate in the upcoming election
43 Constituencies and thetheConstituencies U.S. Senate SeatSeatU.S. 80% 75% 70% 60% 50% 40% Important 30% Not important 20% 20% 10% 0% Elect a candidate who has represented diverse communities and minority neighborhoods during his or her career
44 Constituencies and thetheConstituencies U.S. Senate SeatSeatU.S. 80% 72% 70%
60%
50%
40% Important 30% Not important 25% 20%
10%
0% Elect someone to the U.S. Senate from your part of the state
45 Equal Rights AmendmentAmendmentEqual
84% think it is important to pass an Equal Rights Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, while 13% do not.
90% 84% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Important 20% 13% Not important 10% 0% Pass an Equal Rights Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which would guarantee that equal rights under any federal, state or local law could not be denied on the account of sex. 46 Candidate ProfilesProfilesCandidate Next, we read voters some information about the three candidates who are currently running or have expressed interest in running for the Democratic nomination for New York Senator in 2010. For each, we asked if the information makes them much more likely, somewhat more likely, somewhat less likely, or much less likely to vote for that person for U.S. Senator.
47 Candidate ProfilesProfilesCandidate 65% of voters say that they are more likely to vote for Carolyn Maloney after hearing the information we provided, while 18% say that they are less likely to vote for her. 56% say that they are more likely to vote for Kirsten Gillibrand after hearing the information we provided, while 22% say that they are less likely to vote for her. 68% say that they are more likely to vote for Carolyn McCarthy after hearing the information we provided, while 18% say that they are less likely to vote for her.
48 Candidate ProfileProfileCandidate -- Carolyn MaloneyMaloneyCarolyn Since 1993, Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney has been standing for the interests of NewYork City in Congress. During the 110th Congress, she introduced more pieces of legislation than any other House Member. As a leader of this country, she has made large strides in the areas of financial services, the economy, national security and women’s issues. She has fought tirelessly for full federal assistance to help NewYork City rebuild from 9/11. She has led the fight against credit card companies during these difficult economic times, fighting unfair fees and marketing practices. Maloney has also led Congress in reforming federal homeland security assistance distribution, to send more money back to NewYork State.
More likely to vote for her 65%
Less likely to vote for her 18%
49 Candidate ProfileProfileCandidate -- Kirsten GillibrandGillibrandKirsten
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is a dedicated, tireless public servant, and a lifelong NewYorker who is focused on these challenging economic times facing our state and our country. Governor David Paterson appointed Gillibrand to fill the Senate seat vacated by Hillary Clinton in January 2009. Since then, Gillibrand has helped expand health insurance for uninsured children, supported President Obama’s economic recovery plan, and secured billions of dollars to create jobs in NewYork. Before joining the Senate, Gillibrand served in Congress representing NewYork’s 20th Congressional District.
More likely to vote for her 56%
Less likely to vote for her 22%
50 Candidate ProfileProfileCandidate -- Carolyn McCarthyMcCarthyCarolyn
After her husband was murdered on the Long Island Rail Road, Congresswoman Carolyn McCarthy set out to bring change by running for Congress in 1996. She has built a reputation as a successful and hardworking legislator, serving as a senior member on the Education and Labor Committee and Chairwomen of the Healthy Families and Communities Subcommittee. On these committees, she works to provide tax cuts for working families, stimulate the economy, promote investment, make certain that every child has an excellent education, protect her constituents’ savings and pensions, and keep guns out of schools and away from criminals.
More likely to vote for her 68%
Less likely to vote for her 18%
51 Arguments for Carolyn MaloneyMaloneyArguments Then we read voters a series of statements about Carolyn Maloney, and asked them if each one was a very convincing, somewhat convincing, not very convincing or not at all convincing reason to vote for Maloney for U.S. Senator.
Top tier arguments for Maloney: She helped secure a bill to provide coverage of an annual screening mammography under Medicare Plan B, and strongly supports increasing federal funding for medical research (84%). She authored legislation that provides federal funding that rids the backlog of rape kits (83%).
52 Arguments for Carolyn MaloneyMaloneyArguments She has voted for laws that have helped create 16,000 new jobs in NewYork State (82%). She authored comprehensive credit card reform giving the consumers the ability to understand their account and be empowered to control them, banning excessive fees and deceptive marketing practices that companies have been using for decades (81%). She has fought throughout her career to improve the education system – by working to reduce class size, repair crumbling schools, raise standards, and increase government support for the arts and cultural institutions (81%).
53 Arguments for Carolyn MaloneyMaloneyArguments 90% 84% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Convincing 20% 13% Not convincing 10% 0% Carolyn Maloney helped secure a bill to provide for coverage of an annual screening mammography under Plan B of the Medicare program for seniors. And she strongly supports increased federal funding for medical research including stem cells.
54 Arguments for Carolyn MaloneyMaloneyArguments 90% 83% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Convincing 20% Not convincing 11% 10% 0% Carolyn Maloney authored legislation that provides federal funding to rid the backlog of rape kits. It has been called the most important anti-rape legislation ever considered by Congress.
55 Arguments for Carolyn MaloneyMaloneyArguments 90% 82% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Convincing Not convincing 30% 20% 14% 10% 0% During her time in Congress, Carolyn Maloney has voted for laws that have helped create 16,000 jobs in NewYork State. 56 Arguments for Carolyn MaloneyMaloneyArguments 90% 80% 81% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Convincing 20% 17% Not convincing 10% 0% Carolyn Maloney has authored comprehensive credit card reform giving the consumers the ability to understand their account, be empowered to control them and ban excessive fees and deceptive marketing practices that companies have been using for decades.
57 Arguments for Carolyn MaloneyMaloneyArguments 90% 80% 81% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Convincing 20% 19% Not convincing 10% 0% As a former teacher, Maloney has been a constant fighter to improve the education system – by working to reduce class size, repair crumbling schools, raise standards, and increase government support for the arts and cultural institutions.
58 Arguments for Carolyn MaloneyMaloneyArguments Second tier arguments for Maloney: She is a leader in addressing the home foreclosure crisis, helping to pass President Obama’s plan that allows homeowners to adjust their high interest rate or teaser mortgages, making them more affordable. This is helping millions of Americans keep their homes (80%). She continually presses for answers and demands accountability when it comes to the war in Iraq. She believes that it is time for America’s brave soldiers to come back home (80%).
59 Arguments for Carolyn MaloneyMaloneyArguments She is responsible for a new Family League bill that is going to pass. She has passed legislation to hold credit card rates. She had the guts to take on the banks when nobody else did (78%). She is a dedicated fighter for the rights of the victims and heroes of the attacks of 9/11. Since 2002, Maloney has raised $335 million for medical treatment for those suffering from 9/11-related health conditions (77%).
60 Arguments for Carolyn MaloneyMaloneyArguments She has worked to stop the ongoing violence in Darfur that has killed hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians and displaced millions. She is dedicated to ending the violence and providing assistance to the victims of warfare (77%). She is a nationally-recognized advocate for women’s and family issues, with a special emphasis on funding for women’s health needs, reproductive freedom and international family planning. She has introduced legislation that would amend the Constitution to guarantee equal rights for women (76%).
61 Arguments for Carolyn MaloneyMaloneyArguments 90% 80% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Convincing Not convincing 20% 15% 10% 0% Carolyn Maloney is a leader in addressing the home foreclosure crisis. In Congress she helped pass President Obama’s plan allowing homeowners to adjust their high interest rate or teaser mortgages, helping millions of Americans keep their homes.
62 Arguments for Carolyn MaloneyMaloneyArguments 90% 80% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Convincing 20% 19% Not convincing 10% 0% Carolyn Maloney continually presses for answers and demands accountability when it comes to the war in Iraq. A member of the Out of Iraq Caucus, she believes that it is time for America’s brave soldiers to come back home.
63 Arguments for Carolyn MaloneyMaloneyArguments 90% 80% 78% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Convincing 20% 18% Not convincing 10% 0% Caroline Maloney is responsible for a new Family League bill that is going to pass. She has been responsible for legislation to hold credit card rates. She had the guts to take on the banks when nobody else did.
64 Arguments for Carolyn MaloneyMaloneyArguments 90% 80% 77% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Convincing 20% 17% Not convincing 10% 0% Carolyn Maloney is a dedicated fighter for the rights of the victims and heroes of the attacks of 9/11. Since 2002, Maloney has raised $335 million for medical treatment for those suffering from 9/11-related health conditions.
65 Arguments for Carolyn MaloneyMaloneyArguments 90% 80% 77% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Convincing 22% 20% Not convincing 10% 0% Carolyn Maloney has worked to stop the ongoing violence in Darfur. As a member of the House Sudan Caucus, Maloney is dedicated to ending the violence and providing assistance to the victims of warfare.
66 Arguments for Carolyn MaloneyMaloneyArguments
80% 76% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 23% Convincing 20% Not convincing 10% 0% As the former co-chair of theWomen’s Caucus, Carolyn Maloney is a nationally-recognized advocate for women’s and family issues. She has introduced legislation that would amend the Constitution to guarantee equal rights for women.
67 Arguments for Carolyn MaloneyMaloneyArguments Third tier arguments for Maloney: As Joint Economic Committee Chairman, she has focused on highlighting the Bush Administration’s failed economic policies and has worked to passTARP,the home foreclosure prevention bill and President Obama’s stimulus plan (71%). She pushed for passage of theTroubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) to stabilize the banks and keep credit flowing to American small businesses and consumers (70%). She has led Congress in reforming federal homeland security assistance distribution, sending more money to areas most targeted by terrorists including NewYork City and State (70%).
68 Arguments for Carolyn MaloneyMaloneyArguments She has developed an outstanding track record as a legislator who delivers results for NewYorkers, prompting the NewYork Times to describe her as a “prolific legislator” (70%). She introduced a bill to require the National Institute of Health to conduct a study to understand the differences between children who have been vaccinated and not vaccinated to resolve a possible link between autism and childhood vaccines (66%).
69 Arguments for Carolyn MaloneyMaloneyArguments She has demonstrated her strong support for Israel during the recent conflicts in the Middle East by supporting the resolution recognizing Israel’s right to defend itself and right to take a strong stand against acts of terrorism by Hamas (60%). As an ally of the gay community, she introduced the first measure in NewYork to recognize domestic partnerships. She also authored a bill to expand the family and medical leave act so it applies to domestic partnerships and same-sex marriages (57%). She strongly supports the Second Avenue Subway and has brought home millions of dollars in federal funding for the project (54%).
70 Arguments for Carolyn MaloneyMaloneyArguments 80% 70% 71% 60% 50% 40% 30% Convincing 20% 19% Not convincing 10% 0% As Chairman of the Joint Economic Committee, Carolyn Maloney has focused on highlighting the failed economic policies of the Bush Administration and worked to passTARP, the home foreclosure prevention bill and President Obama’s stimulus plan.
71 Arguments for Carolyn MaloneyMaloneyArguments 80% 70% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Convincing 23% Not convincing 20% 10% 0% Carolyn Maloney pushed for passage of theTroubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) to stabilize the banks and keep credit flowing to American small businesses and consumers.
72 Arguments for Carolyn MaloneyMaloneyArguments 80% 70% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 26% Convincing 20% Not convincing 10% 0% As a NewYorker, Carolyn Maloney has led the charge in Congress to reform federal homeland security assistance distribution, sending more money to areas most targeted by terrorists including NewYork City and State.
73 Arguments for Carolyn MaloneyMaloneyArguments 80% 70% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 26% Convincing 20% Not convincing 10% 0% Since 1993, Carolyn Maloney has developed an outstanding track record as a legislator who delivers results for New Yorkers. Her record in Congress and on the NewYork City Council prompted the NewYorkTimes to describe her as a "prolific legislator."
74 Arguments for Carolyn MaloneyMaloneyArguments
70% 66% 60% 50% 40% 30% 30% 20% Convincing 10% Not convincing 0% Carolyn Maloney introduced a bill to require the National Institute of Health to conduct a study to understand the differences between children who have been vaccinated and not vaccinated to resolve a possible link between autism and childhood vaccines.
75 Arguments for Carolyn MaloneyMaloneyArguments 70% 60% 60% 50%
40% 35% 30% 20% Convincing 10% Not convincing 0% As a friend of Israel, Carolyn Maloney has demonstrated her support during the recent conflicts in the Middle East. Maloney supported the resolution recognizing Israel’s right to defend itself and take a strong stand against acts of terrorism by Hamas.
76 Arguments for Carolyn MaloneyMaloneyArguments
60% 57% 50% 40% 40% 30%
20% Convincing 10% Not convincing 0% As an ally of the gay community, Maloney introduced the first measure in NewYork to recognize domestic partnerships. Maloney also authored a bill to expand the family and medical leave act so it applies to domestic partnerships and same-sex marriages.
77 Arguments for Carolyn MaloneyMaloneyArguments 60% 54% 50%
40% 40%
30% Convincing 20% Not convincing 10%
0% Carolyn Maloney is a strong supporter of the Second Avenue Subway and has been instrumental in bringing home millions of dollars in federal funding for the project.
78 U.S. Senate HorseraceHorseraceU.S. –– New York Democratic PrimaryPrimaryNew 50% After hearing the 43% arguments in support of
40% Carolyn Maloney, 43% say Carolyn they would vote for her if Maloney the NewYork Democratic 30% 28%29% Kirsten primary election for U.S. Gillibrand Not Sure Senator was held today. 20% 28% say they would vote NY Democratic for Kirsten Gillibrand. Primary after positive Maloney 29% are not sure. arguments
79 ARGUMENTS AGAINST CAROLYNCAROLYNARGUMENTS MALONEYMALONEY We then read voters some arguments that have been made against Carolyn Maloney. We asked if voters found each one to be a very convincing, somewhat convincing, not very convincing or not at all convincing reason not to vote for her for U.S. Senator. None of the arguments against Maloney were strong. No more than half of our respondents said they found each argument to be a convincing reason to vote against Maloney.
80 ARGUMENTS AGAINST CAROLYNCAROLYNARGUMENTS MALONEYMALONEY In Congress, she has fought against innovative policies like school choice and merit pay for teachers, and has voted against giving law enforcement the tools needed to fight the threat of terrorism. She lacks fiscal responsibility, voting to increase taxes in the next budget (50%). As someone who lives and represents the Upper East Side of Manhattan, she is one of the top 20 wealthiest members of Congress, putting her out of touch with the working class in NewYork State (44%).
81 ARGUMENTS AGAINST CAROLYNCAROLYNARGUMENTS MALONEYMALONEY Maloney is not a heavyweight in Congress, focusing most of her energy on an Equal Rights Amendment for women. The Amendment has received little attention from other members of Congress, including other women (34%). Maloney is just a career politician focused on political survival and career advancement rather than effectively representing her NewYork constituents (31%). Governor Paterson passed over Maloney in replacing the Senate seat vacated by Hillary Clinton in favor of a less experienced Congresswoman (21%).
82 Arguments against Carolyn MaloneyMaloneyArguments 60%
50% 50% 44% 40%
30%
20% Convincing Not convincing 10%
0% In Congress, Maloney has fought against school choice and merit pay for teachers, and voted against giving law enforcement the tools necessary to fight terrorism. She lacks fiscal responsibility, voting to increase taxes in the next budget.
83 Arguments against Carolyn MaloneyMaloneyArguments 60% 53% 50% 44% 40%
30%
20% Convincing Not convincing 10%
0% As someone who lives and represents the Upper East Side of Manhattan, she is one of the top 20 wealthiest members of Congress, putting her out of touch with the working class in NewYork State.
84 Arguments against Carolyn MaloneyMaloneyArguments 70% 60% 59% 50% 40% 34% 30% Convincing 20% Not convincing 10% 0% Maloney is not a heavyweight in Congress, focusing most of her energy on an Equal Rights Amendment for women. The Amendment has received little attention from other members of Congress, including other women.
85 Arguments against Carolyn MaloneyMaloneyArguments 70% 63% 60%
50%
40% 31% 30% Convincing 20% Not convincing
10%
0% Carolyn Maloney is just a career politician focused on political survival and career advancement rather than effectively representing her NewYork constituents.
86 Arguments against Carolyn MaloneyMaloneyArguments 80% 70% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Convincing Not convincing 20% 21% 10% 0% Governor Paterson passed over Maloney in replacing the Senate seat vacated by Hillary Clinton in favor of a less experienced Congresswoman.
87 ARGUMENTS AGAINST KIRSTENKIRSTENARGUMENTS GILLIBRANDGILLIBRAND Next, we read voters some arguments that have been made against Kirsten Gillibrand. We asked if voters found each one to be a very convincing, somewhat convincing, not very convincing or not at all convincing reason not to vote for her for U.S. Senator. Top tier arguments against Gillibrand: She is too conservative and out of touch with mainstream New Yorkers. She is anti-immigration and supports gun rights and ownership; she earned an‘A’ rating from the National Rifle Association. She has now flip-flopped on these issues, changing her position when it will help her politically (69%).
88 ARGUMENTS AGAINST KIRSTENKIRSTENARGUMENTS GILLIBRANDGILLIBRAND She has not told the truth about her work for the tobacco industry. She represented tobacco giant Philip Morris as a private attorney, helping them deal with criminal probes and civil lawsuits from smoking victims. She has helped try to keep tobacco legal in America (64%). She the most anti-gay record of any Democratic legislator in NewYork State (64%). She voted againstTARP,which was critical in stabilizing the financial system that is vital to NewYork’s economy (62%).
89 Arguments against Kirsten GillibrandGillibrandArguments 80% 70% 69% 60% 50% 40% 30% 27% Convincing 20% Not convincing 10% 0% Kirsten Gillibrand is too conservative. She is a strong supporter of gun rights and ownership, earning an‘A’ rating from the NRA. She has also been anti-immigration. She has now flip-flopped on these issues, changing her position for political gain.
90 Arguments against Kirsten GillibrandGillibrandArguments 70% 64% 60% 50% 40% 34% 30% 20% Convincing 10% Not convincing 0% Gillibrand has not told the truth about her work for the tobacco industry. While representing tobacco giant Philip Morris as a private attorney, she helped deal with criminal probes and civil lawsuits from smoking victims, helping keep tobacco legal.
91 Arguments against Kirsten GillibrandGillibrandArguments 70% 64% 60%
50%
40% 31% 30% Convincing Not convincing 20%
10%
0% Kirsten Gillibrand has the most anti-gay record of any Democratic legislator in NewYork State.
92 Arguments against Kirsten GillibrandGillibrandArguments 70% 62% 60%
50%
40% 32% 30% Convincing 20% Not convincing
10%
0% Kirsten Gillibrand voted againstTARP,which was critical in stabilizing the financial system that is crucial to the NewYork State economy.
93 ARGUMENTS AGAINST KIRSTENKIRSTENARGUMENTS GILLIBRANDGILLIBRAND Second tier arguments against Gillibrand: Not only has she worked for the tobacco industry, but she has taken donations from Altria Group, the parent of Philip Morris.(59%). She is so conservative that ten prominent NewYork Democratic legislators have signed a letter asking the NewYork State party to withhold supporting Gillibrand (58%). She was an intern for conservative Republican Al D’Amato, and he attended her swearing in ceremony as a U.S Congresswoman. She is very close to D’Amato (49%).
94 Arguments against Kirsten GillibrandGillibrandArguments 70%
60% 59%
50%
40% 36% 30% Convincing 20% Not convincing
10%
0% Not only has Kirsten Gillibrand worked for the tobacco industry, but she has taken donations from Altria Group, the parent of Philip Morris.
95 Arguments against Kirsten GillibrandGillibrandArguments 70%
60% 58% 50%
40% 38%
30% Convincing 20% Not convincing
10%
0% Kirsten Gillibrand is so conservative that ten prominent New York Democratic legislators have signed a letter asking the New York state party to withhold supporting Gillibrand.
96 Arguments against Kirsten GillibrandGillibrandArguments 60%
50% 49% 44% 40%
30% Convincing 20% Not convincing 10%
0% Kirsten Gillibrand was an intern for conservative Republican Al D'Amato, and he attended her swearing in ceremony as a U.S. Congresswoman. Gillibrand is very close to D'Amato.
97 U.S. Senate HorseraceHorseraceU.S. –– New York Democratic PrimaryPrimaryNew 60% After hearing the arguments against Carolyn 49% 50% Maloney and Kirsten Gillibrand, 49% say they 40% Carolyn Maloney would vote for Maloney if the NewYork Democratic 30% Kirsten 25% 27% Gillibrand primary election for U.S. Not Sure Senator was held today. 20% NY Democratic One-quarter say they Primary after would vote for Gillibrand. negative Maloney and Gillibrand 27% are not sure. arguments
98 U.S. Senate HorseraceHorseraceU.S. –– New York Democratic PrimaryPrimaryNew Thus, Carolyn Maloney has an opportunity to capitalize on Kirsten Gillibrand’s substantial weaknesses. Her lead over Gillibrand went from two points to 15 points after the positive Maloney arguments were heard, and then to 24 points after the negative Maloney and Gillibrand arguments were heard.
99 U.S. Senate HorseraceHorseraceU.S. –– New York Democratic PrimaryPrimaryNew 50% 49%
43%
40%
34% 34% 32% Maloney 30% 29% Gillibrand 28% 27% 25% Not sure
20% Horserace Horserace after Horserace after positive Maloney negative Maloney and arguments Gillibrand arguments
100