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Real Estate Industry Key Trends & Competitive Strategies in 2018 Introduction REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY KEY TRENDS & COMPETITIVE STRATEGIES IN 2018 INTRODUCTION 2017 was a transformative year for the American real estate market. Housing inventory tightened, and home prices and demand soared in response — particularly within major cities. Experts predict continued growth this year, although perhaps not quite as rapidly as last year. Commercial real estate development will continue evolving as well, as the retail industry shifts to meet consumer needs and omni-channel expectations. In this report we’ll use search, visitation and locational data to pinpoint fast-rising real estate trends. Next, we’ll provide tangible strategies for both large and small listing services who want to get ahead in a competitive market. Finally, we’ll show how commercial real estate companies can study online behavior to meet consumer demand in different regions. TABLE OF CONTENTS SPOT REAL ESTATE 01. TRENDS WITH SEARCH TIGHTEN COMPETITIVE 02. STRATEGY FOR LISTING SITES USE DATA FOR SMARTER 03. COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT 01. SPOT REAL ESTATE TRENDS WITH SEARCH In this chapter you’ll learn how to use search data to uncover rising real estate trends, and pinpoint demand on a local level. BIG-PICTURE SEARCH DEMAND In order to get a broader view of current housing demands, we broke down the top searches driving traffic to the real estate industry in the beginning of 2018. Top 20 Unbranded Terms Driving Traffic to Real Estate Industry From this, we observe a few things… Apartments for rent are in high demand, but we’ll see on the next page this is a steadfastly popular term, rather than a new opportunity. It has a lower organic rate, suggesting many listing sites are already competing for this term in paid search. Mortgage calculator is an important term driving traffic to the real estate industry, and has an extremely high organic click rate. Many home search variations have high organic rates, and several of them include the phrase “near me” (which is a trending keyword phrase, as we’ll show on the next page). Source: Top unbranded searches (i.e. without brand names like zillow, redfin, etc.) leading to Real Estate industry over 4 weeks ending 2/10/2018. UP-AND-COMING REAL ESTATE TRENDS Next, we charted “fast-rising” search terms — in other words, popular keyword variations that showed sizable growth in the beginning of 2018 when compared to the same period last year. Fast-Rising Unbranded Terms Driving Traffic to Real Estate in 2018 These reveal several interesting trends for 2018: Real estate searches including the phrase “near me” are much more popular this year than they were a year ago — in many cases these terms draw about 2X as many search clicks as they did in 2017. 3/5 searches include the phrase “for sale”, which indicates a growing consumer desire to buy (rather than rent) property. Mobile home searches are rising, and according the US Census Bureau, sales of manufactured homes have been growing for years. We may see a spike in consumers buying their own land, then adding mobile or manufactured homes onto their property afterwards. Searches for “3 bedroom house for rent” jumped 646% YoY THREE BEDROOMS Searches for “3 bedroom apartment OR BUST! for rent” jumped 257% YoY Source: Top fast-rising unbranded searches leading to the Real Estate industry over 4 weeks ending 2/10/2018 (“Early 2018”) and 4 weeks ending 2/11/2017 (“Early 2017”). LOCALIZED TRENDSPOTTING: SPOTLIGHT ON COLORADO Let’s say a major real estate developer based in Colorado wants to get ahead of the next “hot spots” to focus new housing construction. They can use state-level search data to identify popular Colorado locations, and the type of property sought there in 2018. 2017 2018 Pueblo - purchase and rent Trinidad – land Craig - land Johnstown - rentals Colorado Springs - rentals Loveland – rentals Loveland - purchase Centennial - rentals This year, a “homes for sale” search in Spanish surfaced to the top — how can real estate companies in Colorado better connect with Hispanic home buyers? Source: Top searches leading to the Real Estate industry that include a locational keyword in them (city, state, street, etc.), conducted by audiences in Colorado. Measured over 4 weeks ending 2/10/2018 and 4 weeks ending 2/11/2017. 02. COMPETITIVE BENCHMARKING FOR LISTING SITES In this chapter we’ll dig into strategies for both national and local listing services to compete in a fast-moving market. NATIONAL LISTING SITES COMPETE LOCALLY Real estate listings are a big business — but website rankings for most of the top players (Zillow, Trulia, Realtor.com, etc.) have held steady for years. As you see below, the relative visit share for the top US listing websites has shown very little movement over the past year: Visit Share – Top 10 Real Estate Listing Sites That being said, competition amongst listing sites is fiercer on a local level. Although Zillow gets more total traffic nationwide (since it’s the largest player in this space), on the right you can see several cities where other listing sites get proportionally more traffic (therefore have a higher visitation index). For example, Redfin has a more relative engagement from people living in Seattle than any of the other listing sites do. Source: Website visit share for the top real estate listing sites charted from 1/17/2017 to 1/18/2018. Visitation index based on audience overlap between visitors to the top listing websites, and residents of Seattle, NYC, Detroit and Lousville DMAs, based on 4 weeks ending 2/10/2018 HOW SMALLER LISTING SITES CAN THINK BIG How can smaller listing sites survive in such a competitive market? It turns out that there is plenty of room for smaller, more localized listings to succeed. Rather than blindly fighting for a bigger piece of the pie, smaller listings must understand how big the pie is, what piece of the pie they want, and how much of that piece they are getting. For example, Reece Nichols, which is based in Kansas City and focuses on local listings, should not only measure how much traffic they are getting each quarter, but also these two KPIs… Reece Nichols - Real Estate Benchmarking Target audience reach: What percentage of people are they reaching who are seeking real estate and live in Missouri? Visit share in the real estate industry: What is their share of the real estate pie? This KPI enables them to know for certain whether website traffic growth is just part of an overall market spike, or Reece Nichols is genuinely winning more available business. Source: Benchmarking chart based on reach (percentage of people within Missouri who have visited their website) and visit share (percentage of visits from within the Real Estate industry). Q3: 14 weeks ending 9/30/2017, Q4: 14 weeks ending 12/30/2017 and Q1 thusfar: 7 weeks ending 2/17/2018. WHY LOCAL LISTINGS SHOULD LOOK NATIONALLY Continuing with our example of Reece Nichols, it intuitively makes that sense this local listing service over- indexes with people living in or near Kansas City. As you see below, reecenichols.com has more relative audience overlap with people living in Kansas City and Topeka than bigger listing sites do: Audience Overlap Index City Residents vs. Listing Site Visitors However, it’s more surprising to learn that reecenichols.com also has a higher overlap index with residents of Pittsburg, located 840+ miles away. It appears that people in Pittgsburg are more likely to research real estate specifically around Missouri, so it may be valuable for Reece Nichols to geotarget advertisements in this city. They also might consider digging deeper into other cities, to identify new out-of-state regions where they can attract prospective home buyers who are toying with the idea of buying property in Missouri. Source: Visitation indices based on the audience overlap between Kansas City, Topeka and Pittsburg, against visitors to reecenichols.com, Zillow.com Realtor.com, Trulia.com and Redfin.com, over 4 weeks ending 2/10/2018. 03. COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT: ASSESSING DEMAND In this chapter, you’ll learn how commercial real estate developers can use online behavioral data to meet local demand, and evaluate the need for specific services and spaces in different locations. CHOOSING CORNER DEPARTMENT STORES Let’s imagine that Westfield wants to build a new Galleria Mall in Des Moines, Iowa. They have identified a prime location — the next step is to select the right retailers to fill the space.How can Westfield pick the right brick-and-mortar retailers to place in their mall, based on what shoppers in Des Moines want and need? Below are the top big-box retailers that people in Des Moines search for — those highlighted in green pull a higher relative search share in Des Moines than the national average. Target, Kohls, JC Penney and Younkers are all solid candidates to be the primary department stores flanking the new Westfield mall. A quick Google search also reveals that JC Penney and Dillards are located far outside of downtown Des Moines, so placing them in the mall (in a more central location) might also provide a lot of convenience for residents. Top 10 Searches for Big Box / Dept Stores in Des Moines Source: Based on top searches leading to the Retail industry by residents of Des Moines vs. the average American population. Big box stores were identified manually, list excludes Walmart. Pulled over 4 weeks ending 2/10/2018. SELECTING HIGH-DEMAND RETAILERS The large department stores have been chosen — what about the smaller retailers (apparel stores, hobby shops, bookstores etc.) that will flesh out the rest of the mall?Below, we see the top small-box retailers that people in Des Moines search for, and which stores they seek even more frequently than average, as highlighted in green.
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