GASCADE Gastransport GmbH
mP Energy® Case Study mP Energy® – Forecast Solution for the Energy Industry.
Gas Flow Management at GASCADE
Reliable Forecasts ensure consistently Stable Transport Services
With its own company pipeline net- between the BASF subsidiary Win- MIDAL, STEGAL, JAGAL, WEDAL work, approximately 2,400 kilo- tershall and the Russian Gazprom and RHG as well as the connected metres in length, and an annual with around 350 employees en- TSO partner lines NORD STREAM, natural gas transport volume of sure that natural gas from fields in OPAL and NEL. Nine compressor sta- 411 TWh (37 BCM); GASCADE Gas- North-West Europe and Russia reli- tions with a total output of around transport GmbH is one of the lead- ably reaches consumers in Central 553 MW maintain stable pressure in ing TSO network operators in Ger- Europe. The network consists main- the network. many and Europe. The joint venture ly of the five GASCADE pipelines
Central Dispatching – 24 x 7
All facilities and systems are opera- management control system over in advance through forecasts aimed ted and monitored around the clock fibre optics cables installed along at predicting the feed and dischar- by GASCADE Central Dispatching in the pipelines. Over 30,000 datasets ge volumes. This gives GASCADE Kassel, which is responsible for ope- are processed every three minutes. the flexibility to respond by adjus- rations management of the trans- To guarantee stable, reliable trans- ting gas volumes and pressures in a port processes. Information from port capacity for all customers, Cen- timely manner, prior to more elabo- some 100,000 data points is con- tral Dispatching depends on identify- rate intervention into network con- tinuously supplied to the gas flow ing pressure changes in the pipelines trol becomes necessary.
Simulation for 48 hours in Advance
In practical terms, this planning is Because of these constraints As reported by Frank Rosskopf, from carried out on the basis of simu- GASCADE decided to implement a network dispatching at GASCADE lations for a period from 24 to 48 new separate forecasting solution in Gastransport GmbH, the forecast hours in advance, generated based conjunction with the upgrade to a quality as such was actually not the on forecast data. A forecasting solu- new control system. number one issue: tion formerly used until October of 2014, as an integrated feature in “When it comes to forecasting, the key factors for us are: its ability to be readily the PSIgamos control system, sup- adapted to changing requirements through the use various forecast methods, relia plied satisfactory results. Howev- bility, system stability and error tolerance. The objective is less focused on achieving er, the forecasting functionality in an improvement of half a percentage point, which often plays a significant role for the new control system was in terms example in gas trading. Our primary goal is to achieve a stable of flexibility very restrictive and its functioning process. We must be able to produce applicable regression calculation method was useable results even if, for example, certain measurements are limited to a maximum of two pre- missing due to a technical failure and we have to work with diction factors (predictors). corresponding substitute values.“
Frank Rosskopf, GASCADE mP Energy® – Forecast Solution for the Energy Industry.
Thanks to positive experiences in HAKOM as the integration partner filter options and capabilities that a previous project, the forecast- had a huge head start in the selec- support the pre-processing of meas- ing software mP Energy from the tion process from the outset. The ured values. Munich software firm metalogic flexibility of this solution was a con- and the Vienna software company vincing argument for those in charge Following the project launch in the at GASCADE in addition to being spring of 2014, both control systems able to handle an unlimited number and forecasting solutions were op- of predictors in the forecasts. Other erated in parallel during a transition important prerequisites, which were phase in order to determine wheth- also decisive for the decision for mP er the results achieved were (as a Energy, were its interfaces that en- minimum) equivalent to the former abled a seamless integration to the results. The quality of the forecasts control system plus the extensive was in fact somewhat better.
Pressure Changes and Balancing
GASCADE primarily uses forecasts for applied for the general processing age the measurements and refer- two purposes: For one, they consti- of forecasts at GASCADE. These in- ence data, mP Energy is front ended tute an important basis for predict- clude among others the average daily by the Time Series Manager (TSM) of ing the changes of pressure in the temperatures, the minimum/maxi- HAKOM Solutions GmbH which pro- distribution network in the next 48 mum values (daily lows and highs) cesses all temperature data. This tool hours. For another, the forecasts al- and the current wind data. Global also generates replacement values low conclusions to be drawn regard- radiation, consumption, weekly pro- when current weather data for ex- ing possible physical differences be- files and average values for the last ample is missing. The TSM is respon- tween input and output necessary few weeks, which are calculated by sible for the allocation forecasts as for estimating the balancing energy default based on the block period well, which are required for example requirements. Tuesday through Thursday, are tak- when total consumption forecasts A temperature-dependent model en into account as well. supply better results than individual with currently 14 predictors is now For the upstream processes to man- station forecasts.
Cyclical Projection with Time Constraints
Reflecting upon the tight time con- ments are available in the control the hour. Having the forecast avail- straints reveals how important the system at Central Dispatching in able precisely at this time is abso- smooth interaction of individual Kassel following the previous hour lutely essential; otherwise forward processes within the forecasting and are then immediately checked simulations that always start 25 and and simulation process chain real- for plausibility. The forecast is then 55 minutes after the full hour would ly is. Within the scope of the cycli- processed and the results are ac- be affected. cal projection, the latest measure- cessed exactly twelve minutes after
www.metalogic.de mP Energy® – Better Results Quicker.
Mastering Complex Forecast Scenarios
For about half of all forecasts, mP Energy, it can model even highly that are practically “not forecasta- GASCADE achieves a sufficient fore- complex forecasting scenarios with ble” using standard means. cast quality applying the standard its integrated scripting engine. This metalogic regression methods. for example includes special interac- Even though improving the forecast However, this approach is often not tions with specific parameters, syn- quality was not the primary reason sufficient for forecasts that do not thetic load profiles or adopting and for GASCADE to switch to mP Energy, primarily depend on temperature as updating certain hourly values for acquiring accurate forecast results a predictor – for example in the case the future. Viable forecasts can be provides clear advantages for the of the consumption values of indus- created and processed for situations TSO network operator: trial enterprises that often contain significant deviations due to fac- “The closer the forecasts and our simulations are to the actual values, the less effort tors such as special production pro- is needed for our network monitoring and network control,” Frank Rosskopf explains. cesses or plant holiday shutdowns. “As a concrete example, this means lower machine wear and lower costs since the This is where the metaScript Master compressors do not have to be started up and shut down, at the cost of very high module comes in. As an option for energy consumption, more than necessary.“
Coping with Network Changes
Due to ongoing changes and growth charge stations each year. These faces between mP Energy and the the GASCADE gas pipeline network stations have to be integrated in control system. The measured data is expanded by five to ten new dis- the forecasting process in a timely from the new stations is then fed manner. This is very into TSM thus providing a basis for straightforward and the forecasting. efficient with the new system. First “By implementing the forecasting the new measuring solution from metalogic, we have station is set up in accomplished our key objective: the control system. Creating a future-proof, open plat- Then the mapping form that gives us sufficient scalabil- is expanded accord- ity and flexibility for future expan- ingly for the inter- sion and individual adaptations,”
metalogic GmbH Westendst. 177 Tel. +49 (0) 89 51 73 93-0 [email protected] 80686 Munich, Germany Fax +49 (0) 89 70 07 62 33 www.metalogic.de