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Growth and Equity to Be Inevitable 13374 Public Disclosure Authorized GROWTH a ~EQU ITY TheTarvaiw Case Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized |l ~FIllECOPY } Q X John C. H. Fei Public Disclosure Authorized GstayRanis OxrAWoShirley W. Y. Kuot ()(frd C A World Bank ResearchPublication Of related interest from Oxford and the World Bank REDISTRIBUTION WITH GROWTH Hollis Chenery, Montek S. Ahluwalia, C. L. G. Bell, John H. Duloy, and Richard Jolly "A major contribution to the literature of income distribution in less developed countries." -Journal of DevelopingAreas "A rich and instructive contribution for anyone teaching economic development and the complex relations between distribution and growth." -Political Science Quarterly "Exceptionally valuable analysis of develop- ment policies . Redistributionwith Growth,a model handbook for planners, is also an extremely useful guide to the state of the discipline of development economics." -Journal of Economic Literature 324 pages.Figures, tables, bibliography. Availablein clothand papereditions. INCOME INEQUALITY AND POVERTY: METHODS OF ESTIMATION AND POLICY APPLICATIONS Nanak Kakwani New techniques, derived from actual data, analyze problems of size distribution of income and evaluate alternative fiscal policies. Both ethical evaluation and statistical measurement are considered. The author systematizes existing knowledge and introduces a number of new findings. About 320pages. Figures, bibliography. Availablein clothedition. Growth with Equity THE TAIWAN CASE A World Bank Research Publication Growth with Equity THE TAIWAN CASE John C. H. Fei Gustav Ranis Shirley W. Y. Kuo with the assistance of Yu-Yuan Bian Julia Chang Collins Published for the World Bank Oxford University Press Oxford UTniversityPress NEW YORK OXFORD LONDON GLASGOW TORONTO MELBOURNE WELLINGTON HONG KONG TOKYO KUALA LUMPUR SINGAPORE JAKARTA DELHI BOMBAY CALCUTTA MADRAS KARACHI NAIROBI DAR ES SALAAM CAPE TOWN (© 1979 by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433 U.S.A. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of Oxford University Press. Manufactured in the United States of America. The views and interpretations in this book are the authors' and should not be attributed to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations, or to any individual acting in their behalf. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Fei, John C. H. Growth with equity Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Income distribution-Taiwan. 2. Taiwan- Economic conditions. I. Ranis, Gustav, joint author. II. Kuo, Shirley W. Y., 1930- joint author. III. Title. HC430.5.Z915196 339.2'0951'249 79-23354 ISBN 0-19-520115-9 ISBN 0-19-520116-7 pbk. Foreword CAN GOVERNMENTS MODIFY POLICIES to produce a more equitable distribution of the benefits of economic growth? Or must they initiate more drastic structural changes? These questions are at the heart of one of the most debated issues in economic development. Most studies of developing countries indeed show that the rich tend to benefit more than the poor from rises in national income during the early phases of economic growth. The experience of Taiwan thus is of par- ticular interest, because the country has managed to achieve rapid growth with considerable equity. This study by Fei, Ranis, and Kuo develops an analytical frame- work that relates changes in family income to the evolution of its several components, which are in turn related to development theory. Application of this method to Taiwan helps to explain the observed changes in income distribution during two decades of rapid growth. Circumstances specific to Taiwan naturally played an important part in this performance. But in speculating about the effects of govern- ment intervention and the pattern of growth on changes in equity, the authors identify processes that are relevant both to economic theory and to economic policy. The authors' catalog of findings deserves consideration by pessimists who feel the tradeoff between growth and equity to be inevitable. This book is one of a series of studies investigating the relations between growth and distribution in the developing countries-a series supported by the research program of the World Bank. Other books in this series include Income Distribution Policy in Developing Coun- tries: A Case Study of Korea by Irma Adelman and Sherman Robinson, Public Expenditure in Malaysia: Who Benefits and Why by Jacob Meerman, Who Benefits from Government Expenditure: A Case Study v Vi FOREWORD of Colombia by Marcelo Selowsky, and Redistribution with Growth by Hollis Chenery and others. Additional titles forthcoming at this writ- ing include Models of Growth and Distribution for Brazil by Lance Taylor and others, Urban Labor Markets and Income Distribution in Malaysia by Dipak Mazumdar, and Inequality and Poverty in Malay- sia: Measurement and Decomposition by Sudhir Anand. As in these other studies, the authors of this book alone are responsible for the findings. It is the Bank's hope that this series will improve under- standing of the choices that developing countries have with respect to growth and the distribution of income. Clearly, the method of analysis and findings for Taiwan presented here are important contributions to that understanding. HOLLIs B. CHENERY Vice President, Development Policy The World Bank Contents Preface xviii INTRODUCTION. An Approach to Growth with Equity 1 Framework of Analysis S Problems of Measurement 6 Problems of Data 10 PART ONE. THE CASE OF TAIWAN 17 1. Historical Perspective 21 The Colonial Legacy 26 Primary Import Substitution, 1953-61 30 Export Substitution, 1961-72 21 2. Economic Growth and Income Distribution, 1953-64 37 Land Reform 38 Agricultural Development during the 1950s 46 The Distribution of Assets and Industrial Growth 50 Effects of Growth on Equity 54 3. Growth and the Family Distribution of Income by Factor Components 72 Income Inequality and Its Factor Components 75 Growth and the Distribution of Income 83 Empirical Application to Taiwan 90 Impact of Growth on FID: Quantitative Aspects 99 Impact of Growth on FID: Qualitative Aspects 108 Summary and Conclusions 127 4. The Inequality of Family Wage Income 1SO Empirical Data 182 Analytical Framework 188 vii viii CONTENTS Labor Heterogeneity and the Wage Rate: First-level Analysis 141 Inequality of Income of Individual Wage Earners: Second-level Analysis 146 Inequality of Family Wage Income: Third-level Analysis 168 Conclusion 193 Appendix 4.1. Data on the Distribution of Family Income in Taiwan 193 Appendix 4.2. Linear Regression and the Model of Additive Factor Components 203 5. Income Distribution and Economic Structure 224 The Decomposition Equation 226 Empirical Decomposition by Sectors and Homogeneous Groups 231 Changes in Income Inequality Associated with Industrialization and Urbanization 243 Additional Reflections 249 6. Taxation and the Inequality of Income and Expenditure 264 Statistical Data 267 Analytical Framework 270 Decomposition of Family Income after Tax 272 The Impact of Taxation on Income Inequality 279 Future Research 289 Appendix 6.1. Estimation of Indirect Tax 293 7. Relevance of Findings for Policy 308 The Inequality of Family Income 312 The Inequality of Family Wage Income 317 The Inequality of Taxation and Expenditure 321 Future Research 323 PART Two. THE METHODOLOGY OF GINI COEFFICIENT ANALYSIS 325 8. Basic Concepts 328 Definition of the Gini Coefficient 328 The Gini Coefficient as Related to the Rank Index of Y 330 The Gini Coefficient as the Average Fractional Gap 331 The Pseudo Gini Coefficient 334 9. Testing Hypotheses 338 Testing Hypotheses by Supporting and Contradicting Gaps 340 Gini Decomposition for Hypothesis Testing 342 Net Supporting Gap 343 CONTENTS Graphic Summary of the Gini and Pseudo Gini Coefficients 346 Correlation Characteristics 348 10. The General and Special Models of Additive Factor Components 351 Decomposition of G, into Pseudo Factor Ginis 352 Exact Decompositionof G, into Factor Ginis 357 ComputationProcedure for Exact Decomposition 359 The Gini Coefficientunder Linear Transformation 361 Linear Model of Additive Factor Components 363 Monotonic Model of Additive Factor Components 365 Linear Approximation of Factor Components 367 Linearity Error 369 Approximation of the Monotonic Model 370 11. Applications and Extensions of the Models of Decomposition 373 Remarks on Chapter Three 374 Renmarkson ChapterSix 375 Additive Factor Componentsand GrowthTheory 376 Income Componentswith ObservationError 378 Family Income with NegativeComponents 380 Computation Procedure 383 12. Regression Analysis, Homogeneous Groups, and Aggregation Error 386 RegressionAnalysis 386 Family Income Inequality with HomogeneousGroups 394 Gini Error Arising from the Use of GroupedData 403 GroupingError in the Analysis of Additive Factor Components 405 Index 411 Figures 1.1. Ratios of Imports of NondurableConsumer Goods to Total Importsand Total Supply, 1953-72 27 1.2. GrowthRate of Real Gross National Product per Capita, 1953-72 28 1.3. Ratiosof Savingsand Investmentto GrossNational Product, 1953-72 29 1.4. Ratiosof Exportsof PrimaryGoods and IndustrialGoods to Total Exports, 1953-72 SO Z CONTENTS 1.5. Ratio of Exports to Gross National Product, 1953-72 31 1.6. Ratios of Agricultural and Nonagricultural Employment to
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