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The Relationship Between Tropospheric Ozone and Atmospheric Circulation in Taiwan

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The Relationship Between Tropospheric Ozone and Atmospheric Circulation in Taiwan THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TROPOSPHERIC OZONE AND ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION IN TAIWAN I-CHIEN LAI A dissertation submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia June 2010 © This copy of the thesis has been supplied on condition that anyone who consults it is understood to recognise that its copyright rests with the author and that no quotation from the dissertation, nor any information derived therefrom, may be published without the author’s prior, written consent. Abstract The aim of the study is to investigate the relationship between variability in tropospheric ozone in Taiwan and the regional atmospheric circulation, paying particular attention to the influence of long-range transport on ozone pollution levels. The study period is 1994 to 2004. The data used in this study include air pollution data from the Taiwan Air Quality Monitoring Network and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The spatial and temporal variations in weather types have been characterised using an objective circulation classification scheme and relationships with episodes of high ozone levels over Taiwan have been determined. The signature of the large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with high ozone pollution and the connection with long-range transport of ozone precursors and ozone have been identified using spatial composites and back-trajectory analysis. Trajectories were calculated using the Hybrid Single-Particle Integrated Trajectory model. The air pollution data analysis shows that Taiwan experiences a seasonal cycle in ozone levels, with maxima in spring and autumn and a minimum in summer. The spatial composite and back trajectory analyses indicate that long-range transport does play a role in increasing high ozone episodes in Taiwan. A link with the seasonal variation of the monsoon circulations at different times is shown, with a weaker summer monsoon and a stronger winter monsoon circulation associated with enahcned ozone levels over Taiwan. The characteristics of atmospheric circulation for ozone pollution episodes include enhanced north and northeasterly flows, originating from nearby polluted areas and suggest that mainland China, Korea and Japan are source regions of ozone and its precursors for Taiwan. Moreover, the transport pathways at the high level of 2000m show that the southern China is also prominent source region, which is a previously ii unidentified distant source of ozone pollution in Taiwan. It is suggested that the increase of ozone pollution in summer found in this study is caused by a weaker summer monsoon circulation in recent years. While it is emphasised that variability in long-range transport is the only factor affecting ozone pollution levels over Taiwan, the influence of global warming on the Asian monsoon circulation and, hence, long-range transport of ozone and its precursors warrants serious consideration. iii Acknowledgements I would like to express my sincere appreciation and thank to Peter Brimblecombe and Mick Kelly for supervising this work throughout the course of this work enabled me to develop an understanding of the subject. It is a pleasure to thank Ian Harris, Clare Goodess and Phil Jones for giving guidance and advice in the part of this project. Many thanks to Mike Salmon for providing excellent computing support service and being patient to ameliorate my computer whenever it does not functioning well. Special thanks to Ching-Wen Huang for helping me on thesis works, support and encouragement throughout my studies at UEA. Grateful appreciation is extended to my former roommates Maribel de la Fuente and Karen Lin provide good company endless hours of entertainment during the course of this work. I am grateful to Sarah Granich for her kindness and consideration for my health, which is warm support during my study period. Lastly, thanks to my family, especially to my sister, for putting up with my complaints when times were difficult, and financial support. iv Contents Abstract ii Acknowledgements iv List of Figures viii List of Tables xv Chapter 1: Introduction 1 1.1 Tropospheric Ozone Pollution, the Atmospheric Circulation 1 and Taiwan 1.2 Aims 5 1.3 Thesis Structure and Contents 6 Chapter 2: Atmospheric Circulation Variability and 9 Tropospheric Ozone Pollution 2.1 Introduction 9 2.2 Tropospheric Ozone Variability and Trends 9 2.2.1 The Basic Mechanism of Tropospheric Ozone Formation 9 2.2.2 Trend Analysis 13 2.2.3 Tropospheric Ozone over Taiwan 16 2.3 Local Weather Conditions and the Large-Scale 22 Atmospheric Circulation 2.3.1 Local Weather Patterns and the Seasonal Circulation 22 2.3.2 The Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation and 27 Long-Range Transport 2.4 Conclusion 33 Chapter 3: Project Design, Data and Statistical Methods 35 3.1 Introduction 35 3.2 Project Design 35 3.3 Air Pollution Data 41 3.3.1 Data Source 41 3.3.2 Quality Control 42 3.3.3 The Definition of High Ozone Pollution Indices 42 v 3.4 Gridded Observational Atmospheric Circulation Data 46 3.4.1 NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Data 46 3.4.2 Quality Control 48 3.4.3 Problems and Known Errors 49 3.4.4 Inter-Comparisons 50 3.4.5 Diagnostic Variables 54 3.5 Objective Circulation Classification Scheme 55 3.5.1 Introduction 55 3.5.2 Methodology 57 3.6 Back Trajectory Analysis 63 3.7 Spatial Compositing 68 Chapter 4: Observed Annual and Seasonal Trends of Ozone 72 4.1 Introduction 72 4.2 Annual Trend of Ozone Pollution 72 4.2.1 Selection of High Ozone Episodes and 72 High Pollution Zones 4.2.2 Annual Distribution of High Ozone Episodes 73 4.2.3 Annual Trend in Five High Ozone Pollution Zones 77 4.3 Seasonal Distribution of High Ozone Days (HOD) 81 4.3.1 The Possible Effect of ENSO on Tropospheric Ozone 85 Seasonal Distribution 4.4 Conclusions 91 Chapter 5: The Objective Scheme of Circulation Types and 93 Circulation-Ozone Links 5.1 Introduction 93 5.2 Frequency and Climatological Analysis 93 5.2.1 Long-Term Trend Analysis in Circulation Type 99 5.2.2 Seasonal Characteristics of Sea Level Pressure 103 Circulation Types Composites 5.3 Relationships between Ozone Pollution and Circulation 117 Weather Types vi 5.3.1 Frequency Analysis of Ozone Pollution Circulation 118 Types 5.3.2 Evaluation of Ozone Pollution and Circulation Types 123 Relationship 5.3.3 Discussion 132 5.4 The Analysis of Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Links 134 with HOD3 5.5 Summary 143 Chapter 6: Trajectory Analysis 145 6.1 Introduction 145 6.2 Back Trajectory Analysis 145 6.3 Framework for Long-Range Transport 169 6.4 Summary 174 6.5 Conclusion 175 Chapter 7: Conclusions 177 7.1 Introduction 177 7.2 Summary of Findings 178 7.3 Limitations of the Study 180 7.4 Recommendations for Further Research 182 7.5 Wider Implications 184 References 185 Appendix vii List of Figures Figure 1.1 Geographical location of Taiwan in East/Southeast Asia. 3 Figure 2.1 Ozone isopleth plot, contour plot of maximum ozone 12 concentrations based on initial of VOC and NOx concentration. Figure 2.2 Long-term evolution of ozone at the mid-latitudes of the 15 Northern Hemisphere Figure 2.3 Severn air quality zones of monitoring network system in 17 Taiwan. Figure 2.4 Air monitoring network stations distribution map in 18 Taiwan. Figure 2.5 Example of high ozone episodes in April, thick line is 21 the air quality standard of 8-hour average in Taiwan. Figure 2.6 Percentages of hourly ozone concentration over 8-hour 21 average standard in Taiwan area. Figure 2.7 Seasonal variation of ozone concentration in North and 24 South cities. Figure 2.8 Mean Geopotential Height at 850hpa for 1948 to 25 2006during Spring (A) and Autumn (B). The green circle is the location of Taiwan. Figure 2.9 Depiction of local scale and large-scale. Dotted-line 27 rectangle shows local scale, and solid-line rectangle represents the regional scale. Figure 3.1 A schematic research framework. 40 Figure 3.2 Frequency of high ozone episodes (HOEs) in the 22 44 districts of Taiwan, geographical information of 22 districts sees Figure 2.4. Figure 3.3 The distribution of 53 air monitoring network stations 45 used in this study viii Figure 3.4 Grid used in the objective circulation-typing scheme 58 (Local Area). Figure 3.5 Grid used in the objective circulation-typing scheme 58 (Regional Area). Figure 4.1 The trend of high ozone days (HOD), based on the 53 74 station network, from 1994-2004. Figure 4.2 The annual trend of HOD3 (days). The solid line is 76 associated trend line between 1994 and 2004 obtained by the least-square regression method, and the dashed lines are the trend lines with upper and lower 95% confidence interval. The open circle indicates high ozone days in year 2000, and the diamonds indicate high ozone days of years. Figure 4.3 The annual trend of HOD in five high ozone pollution 79 zones from 1994-2004. Figure 4.4 The annual mean of ozone concentrations in five zones 79 from 1994-2004. Figure 4.5 Seasonal distribution of HOD in five high ozone 83 pollution zones. Figure 4.6 HOD climatology for winter (thin green line), spring 83 (thick red line), summer (thin red line) and autumn (thick green line) for the period 1994-2004. Figure 4.7 Monthly trend of HOD for four seasons (a) winter, (b) 84 spring, (c) summer and (d) autumn for the period 1994-20044. Figure 4.8 Monthly HOD distribution and SST anomaly over Niño 87 3.4 region (120w-170w, 5N-5S) for the period of 1994 to 2004.
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