6 — Ocean Systems
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6 Ocean Systems Coordinating Lead Authors: Hans-O. Pörtner (Germany), David M. Karl (USA) Lead Authors: Philip W. Boyd (New Zealand/Australia), William W.L. Cheung (Canada), Salvador E. Lluch-Cota (Mexico), Yukihiro Nojiri (Japan), Daniela N. Schmidt (UK), Peter O. Zavialov (Russian Federation) Contributing Authors: Jürgen Alheit (Germany), Javier Aristegui (Spain), Claire Armstrong (Norway), Gregory Beaugrand (France), Vsevolod Belkovich (Russian Federation), Chris Bowler (France), Peter Brewer (USA), Matthew Church (USA), Sarah R. Cooley (USA), Pablo del Monte-Luna (Mexico), Martin Edwards (UK), Mikhail Flint (Russian Federation), Michael J. Follows (USA), Thomas Frölicher (Switzerland), Elizabeth A. Fulton (Australia), Jean-Pierre Gattuso (France), Ove Hoegh-Guldberg (Australia), Eileen E. Hofmann (USA), Andrew H. Knoll (USA), Lisa A. Levin (USA), Lena Menzel (Germany), Coleen L. Moloney (South Africa), R. Ian Perry (Canada), Elvira S. Poloczanska (Australia), J. Murray Roberts (UK), Björn Rost (Germany), Jorge L. Sarmiento (USA), Jan Sedláček (Switzerland), Daniela Storch (Germany), Christian Wiencke (Germany), Astrid C. Wittmann (Germany) Review Editors: Kenneth F. Drinkwater (Norway), Alexander Polonsky (Ukraine) Volunteer Chapter Scientists: Lena Menzel (Germany), Astrid C. Wittmann (Germany) This chapter should be cited as: Pörtner, H.-O., D.M. Karl, P.W. Boyd, W.W.L. Cheung, S.E. Lluch-Cota, Y. Nojiri, D.N. Schmidt, and P.O. Zavialov, 2014: Ocean systems. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 411-484. 411 Table of Contents Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................................... 414 6.1. Introduction: Point of Departure, Observations, and Projections ........................................................................... 417 6.1.1. Changes in Physical and Chemical Variables .................................................................................................................................... 418 6.1.1.1.Temperature and Salinity ..................................................................................................................................................... 418 6.1.1.2.Carbon Dioxide-Induced Acidification .................................................................................................................................. 418 6.1.1.3.Hypoxia ................................................................................................................................................................................ 418 6.1.1.4.Light and Nutrients .............................................................................................................................................................. 420 6.1.2. Historical and Paleo-Records ............................................................................................................................................................ 420 6.1.2.1.Historical Observations ........................................................................................................................................................ 420 6.1.2.2.Paleontological Records ....................................................................................................................................................... 421 6.2. Diversity of Ocean Ecosystems and Their Sensitivities to Climate Change ............................................................ 423 6.2.1. Pelagic Biomes and Ecosystems ........................................................................................................................................................ 424 6.2.2. Benthic Habitats and Ecosystems ..................................................................................................................................................... 424 6.3. Climate Change Impacts from Organism to Ecosystem .......................................................................................... 424 6.3.1. Temperature Effects .......................................................................................................................................................................... 427 6.3.1.1.Principles .............................................................................................................................................................................. 427 6.3.1.2.Microbes .............................................................................................................................................................................. 428 6.3.1.3.Macroalgae and Seagrasses ................................................................................................................................................. 429 6.3.1.4.Animals ................................................................................................................................................................................ 429 6.3.1.5.Ecosystems ........................................................................................................................................................................... 431 Box 6-1. An Atlantic Ocean Example: Long-Term Responses of Pelagic Organisms and Communities to Temperature .. 434 6.3.2. Carbon Dioxide Effects ..................................................................................................................................................................... 432 6.3.2.1.Principles .............................................................................................................................................................................. 436 6.3.2.2.Microbes .............................................................................................................................................................................. 439 6.3.2.3.Macroalgae and Seagrasses ................................................................................................................................................. 440 6.3.2.4.Animals ................................................................................................................................................................................ 440 6.3.2.5.Ecosystems ........................................................................................................................................................................... 441 6.3.3. Life in Hypoxia and Anoxia ............................................................................................................................................................... 443 6.3.3.1.Principles .............................................................................................................................................................................. 443 6.3.3.2.Microbes .............................................................................................................................................................................. 443 6 6.3.3.3.Animals and Plants .............................................................................................................................................................. 443 6.3.3.4.Ecosystems ........................................................................................................................................................................... 443 6.3.4. Mixed Layer Depth and Light Shaping Net Primary Production ........................................................................................................ 444 6.3.5. Concurrent Responses to Multiple Drivers ........................................................................................................................................ 445 6.3.5.1.Principles .............................................................................................................................................................................. 446 6.3.5.2.Microbes .............................................................................................................................................................................. 447 6.3.5.3.Animals and Plants .............................................................................................................................................................. 447 412 Ocean Systems Chapter 6 6.3.5.4.Ecosystems ........................................................................................................................................................................... 448 6.3.6. Food Web Consequences .................................................................................................................................................................. 448 6.3.7. Marine Reptiles, Mammals, and Birds ............................................................................................................................................... 448 6.3.7.1.Principles .............................................................................................................................................................................