Trends in Southeast Asia

ISSN 0219-3213 2018 no. 3 Trends in Southeast Asia GE-14 IN JOHOR: THE FALL OF THE FORTRESS? FRANCIS E. HUTCHINSON TRS3/18s ISBN 978-981-4818-20-9 30 Heng Mui Keng Terrace Singapore 119614 http://bookshop.iseas.edu.sg 9 7 8 9 8 1 4 8 1 8 2 0 9 Trends in Southeast Asia 18-J03325 01 Trends_2018-03.indd 1 22/1/18 11:09 AM The ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute (formerly Institute of Southeast Asian Studies) is an autonomous organization established in 1968. It is a regional centre dedicated to the study of socio-political, security, and economic trends and developments in Southeast Asia and its wider geostrategic and economic environment. The Institute’s research programmes are grouped under Regional Economic Studies (RES), Regional Strategic and Political Studies (RSPS), and Regional Social and Cultural Studies (RSCS). The Institute is also home to the ASEAN Studies Centre (ASC), the Nalanda-Sriwijaya Centre (NSC) and the Singapore APEC Study Centre. ISEAS Publishing, an established academic press, has issued more than 2,000 books and journals. It is the largest scholarly publisher of research about Southeast Asia from within the region. ISEAS Publishing works with many other academic and trade publishers and distributors to disseminate important research and analyses from and about Southeast Asia to the rest of the world. 18-J03325 01 Trends_2018-03.indd 2 22/1/18 11:09 AM 2018 no. 3 Trends in Southeast Asia GE-14 IN JOHOR: THE FALL OF THE FORTRESS? FRANCIS E. HUTCHINSON 18-J03325 01 Trends_2018-03.indd 3 22/1/18 11:09 AM Published by: ISEAS Publishing 30 Heng Mui Keng Terrace Singapore 119614 [email protected] http://bookshop.iseas.edu.sg © 2018 ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form, or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior permission. The author is wholly responsible for the views expressed in this book which do not necessarily reflect those of the publisher. ISEAS Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data Hutchinson, Francis E. GE-14 in Johor : The Fall of the Fortress? / by Francis E. Hutchinson. (Trends in Southeast Asia Series, 0219-3213 ; TRS3/18) 1. Elections—Malaysia—Johor. 2. Johor—Politics and government. I. Title. II. Series: Trends in Southeast Asia ; TRS 3/18. DS501 I59T no. 3 (2018) January 2018 ISBN 978-981-4818-20-9 (soft cover) ISBN 978-981-4818-21-6 (ebook, PDF) Typeset by Superskill Graphics Pte Ltd Printed in Singapore by Mainland Press Pte Ltd 18-J03325 01 Trends_2018-03.indd 4 22/1/18 11:09 AM FOREWORD The economic, political, strategic and cultural dynamism in Southeast Asia has gained added relevance in recent years with the spectacular rise of giant economies in East and South Asia. This has drawn greater attention to the region and to the enhanced role it now plays in international relations and global economics. The sustained effort made by Southeast Asian nations since 1967 towards a peaceful and gradual integration of their economies has had indubitable success and, perhaps as a consequence of this, most of these countries are undergoing deep political and social changes domestically and are constructing innovative solutions to meet new international challenges. Big Power tensions continue to be played out in the neighbourhood despite the tradition of neutrality exercised by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The Trends in Southeast Asia series acts as a platform for serious analyses by selected authors who are experts in their fields. It is aimed at encouraging policymakers and scholars to contemplate the diversity and dynamism of this exciting region. THE EDITORS Series Chairman: Choi Shing Kwok Series Editor: Ooi Kee Beng Editorial Committee: Su-Ann Oh Daljit Singh Francis E. Hutchinson Benjamin Loh 18-J03325 01 Trends_2018-03.indd 5 22/1/18 11:09 AM 18-J03325 01 Trends_2018-03.indd 6 22/1/18 11:09 AM GE-14 in Johor: The Fall of the Fortress? By Francis E. Hutchinson EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • Johor is a key battleground in Malaysia’s 14th General Elections. The state is economically vital to the country: it is the birthplace of the United Malays National Organization (UMNO); and it has a large number of parliamentary seats. • Johor-specific dynamics that have worked to the advantage of the ruling coalition include: UMNO’s unique links with the state; the tight control over religion; and the phenomenal scale and success of the Federal Land Development Authority (FELDA) scheme. • Despite these advantages, support for the ruling coalition has been slipping across the state. Furthermore, the emergence of new parties such as Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM) will challenge Barisan Nasional’s control over Johor’s rural and Malay heartland. • The redelineation of parliamentary and state constituencies now underway is however likely to benefit BN, and recent survey data indicate that Johoreans are yet to be attracted to the reconfigured opposition coalition, Pakatan Harapan. • Thus, while BN may suffer a drop in support, it is likely to retain power in Johor. 18-J03325 01 Trends_2018-03.indd 7 22/1/18 11:09 AM 18-J03325 01 Trends_2018-03.indd 8 22/1/18 11:09 AM GE-14 in Johor: The Fall of the Fortress? By Francis E. Hutchinson1 INTRODUCTION The run-up to the 14th General Elections in Malaysia has been captivating and unpredictable. Beyond the machinations within and between the coalitions of the incumbent Barisan Nasional (BN), the Opposition Pakatan Harapan, and the dark horse Gagasan Sejahtera, attention is centring on key states that can deliver large numbers of parliamentary seats to the victor. Selangor has captured the most attention, as it is the country’s largest and wealthiest state and has been run by the Opposition for a decade. However, other states are no less strategic. Johor, Sabah and Sarawak have traditionally been seen as BN’s “safe deposits”, consistently delivering substantial numbers of parliamentarians and solid state-level majorities to the ruling coalition. Should one or more of these fall, BN’s hold on power can be seriously compromised. Due to its unique culture and political significance, Johor merits special analysis. With some 3.7 million citizens and residents, it is Malaysia’s third largest state and has the second largest number of parliamentarians. Johor is also one of the country’s main economic “motors”. Its vast swathes of flat, fertile land generate an important proportion of the country’s palm oil output. The state also has a large 1 Francis E. Hutchinson is Senior Fellow and Coordinator of the Malaysia and Regional Economic Studies Programmes at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore. He would like to thank Lee Hwok Aun and Wan Saiful Wan Jan for their comments and suggestions, and Pearlyn Pang for the maps developed for this piece. 1 18-J03325 01 Trends_2018-03.indd 1 22/1/18 11:09 AM and diversified manufacturing sector, consisting of important clusters of furniture makers, textile producers, and electrical and electronics firms. Recent policy initiatives look to further cement Johor’s economic status. The high-profile Iskandar Malaysia initiative has sought to catalyse the higher education, healthcare, entertainment, and logistics sectors. Some of these efforts have borne fruit, as seen in the number of international university campuses and hospital facilities being established. In addition, the state houses the Pengerang Integrated Petroleum Complex, a sprawling 20,000-acre project with oil refining, petrochemical plants, and liquefied natural gas import and regasification facilities. And, much of the High-Speed Rail between Kuala Lumpur and Singapore will run through Johor, with three stations and large-scale transit-oriented development projects planned. Besides being a vital part of the nation’s economy, a number of attributes make Johor’s electoral outcome assume even greater importance. The state is ethnically mixed. In addition to its bumiputera majority of 60 per cent, it has substantial numbers of Chinese and Indian voters, comprising 33 and 7 per cent of the population, respectively (DOS 2017).2 Johor’s level of urbanization of 72 per cent also closely mirrors the national average. Consequently, many look to the state as a bell-wether for national voting trends. Johor is also very important for historical reasons. The United Malays National Organization (UMNO) — Barisan Nasional’s primus inter pares component party — is deeply and inextricably linked to the state. It was founded in Johor in 1946, and the state has produced a disproportionate number of senior political figures and cabinet ministers over the years. Indeed, more than any other state, Johor has exemplified BN’s consociational model of politics. Through the parcelling out of constituencies among component parties, effective mobilization of candidates, and persuading members of different communities to vote 2 This is calculated on the basis of the 3.3 million Malaysian citizens living in Johor. There are an additional 650,000 foreign residents in the state. 2 18-J03325 01 Trends_2018-03.indd 2 22/1/18 11:09 AM across communal lines for their local BN representative, the ruling coalition has enjoyed an unbroken hold on power in the state. Up until 2013, BN never yielded more than one parliamentary seat or a handful of state seats to the Opposition. However, a rather less stellar performance in that year’s election — along with unprecedented changes in the country’s political context — mean that this may be about to change. Five parliamentary seats were lost to the Opposition in 2013, as were eighteen state seats. Following one state assembly-person crossing the floor in 2016, BN lost its two-thirds majority in the state legislature — for the first time.

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