PAKISTAN: VIOLENCE VS. STABILITY A National Net Assessment Varun Vira and Anthony H. Cordesman Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy
[email protected] Working Draft: 5 May 2011 Please send comments and suggested revisions and additions to
[email protected] Vira & Cordesman: Pakistan: Violence & Stability 3/5/11 ii Executive Summary As the events surrounding the death of Osama Bin Laden make all too clear, Pakistan is passing through one of the most dangerous periods of instability in its history. This instability goes far beyond Al Qa‟ida, the Taliban, and the war in Afghanistan. A net assessment of the patterns of violence and stability indicate that Pakistan is approaching a perfect storm of threats, including rising extremism, a failing economy, chronic underdevelopment, and an intensifying war, resulting in unprecedented political, economic and social turmoil. The Burke Chair at CSIS has developed an working draft of a net assessment that addresses each of these threats and areas of internal violence in depth, and does so within in the broader context of the religious, ideological, ethnic, sectarian, and tribal causes at work; along with Pakistan‟s problems in ideology, politics, governance, economics and demographics. The net assessment shows that these broad patterns of violence in Pakistan have serious implications for Pakistan‟s future, for regional stability, and for core US interests. Pakistan remains a central node in global counterterrorism. Osama Bin Laden was killed deep inside Pakistan in an area that raises deep suspicion about what Pakistani intelligence, senior military officers and government officials did and did not know about his presence – and the presence of other major terrorists and extremist like Sheik Mullah Omar and the “Quetta Shura Taliban.” Pakistan pursues its own agenda in Afghanistan in ways that provide the equivalent of cross- border sanctuary for Taliban and Haqqani militants, and that prolong the fighting and cause serious US, ISAF, and Afghan casualties.