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Considerations for an Individual-Level Population Notification System for Pandemic Response: a Review and Prototype

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Considerations for an Individual-Level Population Notification System for Pandemic Response: a Review and Prototype JOURNAL OF MEDICAL INTERNET RESEARCH Sakib et al Viewpoint Considerations for an Individual-Level Population Notification System for Pandemic Response: A Review and Prototype Mohammad Nazmus Sakib1, MBBS, MSc; Zahid A Butt1, MBBS, MSc, PhD; Plinio Pelegrini Morita1,2,3,4,5, MSc, PhD, PEng; Mark Oremus1, PhD; Geoffrey T Fong1,6,7, PhD, FRSC, FCAHS; Peter A Hall1, PhD 1School of Public Health and Health Systems, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada 2Research Institute for Aging, University of Waterloo and Schlegel Villages, Waterloo, ON, Canada 3Department of Systems Design Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada 4eHealth Innovation, Techna Institute, University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada 5Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada 6Department of Psychology, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada 7Ontario Institute for Cancer Research, Toronto, ON, Canada Corresponding Author: Peter A Hall, PhD School of Public Health and Health Systems University of Waterloo 200 University Avenue West Waterloo, ON, N2L 3G1 Canada Phone: 1 519 888 4567 ext 38110 Email: [email protected] Related Article: This is a corrected version. See correction statement in: https://www.jmir.org/2020/6/e21634/ Abstract The outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, spread worldwide after its emergence in China. Whether rich or poor, all nations are struggling to cope with this new global health crisis. The speed of the threat's emergence and the quick response required from public health authorities and the public itself makes evident the need for a major reform in pandemic surveillance and notification systems. The development and implementation of a graded, individual-level pandemic notification system could be an effective tool to combat future threats of epidemics. This paper describes a prototype model of such a notification system and its potential advantages and challenges for implementation. Similar to other emergency alerts, this system would include a number of threat levels (level 1-5) with a higher level indicating increasing severity and intensity of safety measures (eg, level 1: general hygiene, level 2: enhanced hygiene, level 3: physical distancing, level 4: shelter in place, and level 5: lockdown). The notifications would be transmitted to cellular devices via text message (for lower threat levels) or push notification (for higher threat levels). The notification system would allow the public to be informed about the threat level in real time and act accordingly in an organized manner. New Zealand and the United Kingdom have recently launched similar alert systems designed to coordinate the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic response more efficiently. Implementing such a system, however, faces multiple challenges. Extensive preparation and coordination among all levels of government and relevant sectors are required. Additionally, such systems may be effective primarily in countries where there exists at least moderate trust in government. Advance and ongoing public education about the nature of the system and its steps would be an essential part of the system, such that all members of the public understand the meaning of each step in advance, similar to what has been established in systems for other emergency responses. This educational component is of utmost importance to minimize adverse public reaction and unintended consequences. The use of mass media and local communities could be considered where mobile phone penetration is low. The implementation of such a notification system would be more challenging in developing countries for several reasons, including inadequate technology, limited use of data plans, high population density, poverty, mistrust in government, and tendency to ignore or failure to understand the warning messages. Despite the challenges, an individual-level pandemic notification system could provide added benefits by giving an additional route for notification that would be complementary to existing platforms. http://www.jmir.org/2020/6/e19930/ J Med Internet Res 2020 | vol. 22 | iss. 6 | e19930 | p. 1 (page number not for citation purposes) XSL·FO RenderX JOURNAL OF MEDICAL INTERNET RESEARCH Sakib et al (J Med Internet Res 2020;22(6):e19930) doi: 10.2196/19930 KEYWORDS pandemic; epidemic; notification system; hygiene; physical distancing; lockdown; mobile technology; COVID-19; coronavirus may not seek medical advice, it greatly increases the risk of Introduction community transmission and larger outbreaks [19,20]. Despite a dramatic improvement in health care affordances and Overall, the emergence and re-emergence of highly infectious extensive public health measures around the world, the pathogens pose a substantial threat to human health. Air travel emergence and re-emergence of infectious pathogens and and tourism now allow for epidemics to quickly become associated diseases have become a common phenomenon. The pandemics [21]. In fact, the current pandemic was predicted first 2 decades of the 21st century have already witnessed several and foreseen previously on multiple occasions [22]. The lessons major disease outbreaks such as severe acute respiratory from the ongoing global health crisis indicate that a substantial syndrome (SARS) in 2003, with the most severe outbreak being improvement is needed in our pandemic response, and this is the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic [1,2]. possible by making use of mobile technology. The impact of In December 2019, the outbreak of COVID-19, caused by a future outbreaks can be mitigated through an improvement in novel coronavirus named severe acute respiratory syndrome pandemic notification systems by harnessing such technology. coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was first reported in Wuhan, China [3,4]. Full-genome sequencing and phylogenic analysis Existing Global Platforms for Infectious revealed that SARS-CoV-2 is distinct from both severe acute Disease Surveillance respiratory syndrome±related coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome±related coronavirus The Program for Monitoring Emerging Diseases (ProMED; (MERS-CoV) but closely linked [5]. Within a brief period, the also known as ProMED-mail) is an internet-based, publicly disease has spread to virtually all regions of the world with a available, and free of charge digital surveillance system total of 6,112,902 confirmed cases and 369,593 deaths as of dedicated for rapid collection and circulation of information on May 31, 2020 [6]. The World Health Organization (WHO) emerging infectious diseases and toxins that affect humans, announced COVID-19 a ªPublic Health Emergency of animals, and plants [23,24]. This novel platform was founded International Concernº on January 30, 2020, and subsequently in 1994 by the Federation of American Scientists and later declared a pandemic on March 11, 2020 [7]. became a part of the International Society for Infectious Diseases in 1999. ProMED has grown substantially since its COVID-19 is primarily a respiratory illness and the majority establishment, and the number of subscribers increased to of patients present with flu-like symptoms such as fever, cough, approximately 80,000, which represents every country in the fatigue, shortness of breath, headache, and muscle pain; world [23,24]. The ProMED system collects information from although, a significant minority experience different symptoms, a variety of sources (eg, media reports, official reports, local some of which are highly distinctive (eg, ageusia, anosmia) observers); a multidisciplinary team of experts from different [1,3,8,9]. Although most patients usually develop mild illnesses countries synthesizes the information, which is then (81%), it can cause severe pneumonia, respiratory failure, and disseminated to the subscribers directly by email and posted even death, particularly in individuals with an existing high-risk online on the ProMED website. The ProMED system condition such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or continuously monitors emerging disease status and delivers diabetes [1,3,8,9]. It has been reported that about 14% of the updates as required in near real time. This platform was the first patients develop a severe disease that requires hospitalization to report major disease outbreaks including SARS, MERS, and oxygen support, and 5% require intensive care support Ebola, and Zika [23,24]. ProMED is now being used by a wide [4,10]. Although the case fatality rate is expected to be around range of professionals and organizations including government 0.5-1% [11,12], it is significantly higher among older adults officials, private organizations, researchers, physicians, and and those with a high-risk condition [1,4,8]. Accordingly, journalists. countries with a higher older demographic are experiencing more critically ill patients and mortality in absolute terms Another global platform to address emerging public health [13,14]. issues is the Global Public Health Intelligence Network (GPHIN), developed by the Government of Canada in In comparison to SARS and Middle East respiratory syndrome collaboration with the WHO [25]. Unlike ProMED, GPHIN is (MERS), which showed a mortality rate of 10% and 34%, a fee-based service with subscription offers limited to only respectively [15,16], COVID-19 appears to be less deadly. selected organizations involved in public health issues. GPHIN However, a sharp initial
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