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MALCOLM CHALMERS & WILLIAM WALKER The United Kingdom, Nuclear Weapons, and the Scottish Question MALCOLM CHALMERS & WILLIAM WALKER1 Malcolm Chalmers is Professor of International Politics at the University of Bradford, England, and William Walker is Professor of International Relations at the University of St. Andrews, Scotland mong the states that possess nuclear weapons, Stretegic Defence Review, the government announced that the United Kingdom is now regarded as one of the total U.K. operational arsenal would be reduced to Athe least problematic. Long established and rec- fewer than 200, the smallest arsenal of the five recog- ognized as a nuclear weapon state (NWS) under the Treaty nized NWS. on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), it Short of the emergence of a major new external threat, has a stable democracy, competent administrative system, an apparently durable consensus in the U.K. government disciplined military forces, and a cooperative approach to and Parliament therefore exists today around a low-key international security. It is a trusted member of the North minimum force posture combined with support for arms Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and a close ally of control. That consensus has so far withstood the political the United States. and strategic upheavals that have followed the Indian and Yet a consensus on nuclear policy has not been easily Pakistani nuclear tests, the U.S. embrace of missile de- sustained at home. Among the NWS, the United King- fense, the events of September 11, 2001, and other de- dom has also been notable for the strength of its grassroots velopments. campaigns against nuclear weapons. In the 1980s, unilat- Despite U.K. nuclear policy attaining this stability, a new eral disarmament was even adopted as the official policy challenge is emerging from an unexpected source: the pro- of the Labour Party. A broad interparty consensus on cess of constitutional change initiated in the late 1990s nuclear policy was only reinstated in the early 1990s when leading, in particular, to the establishment of a new leg- the Labour Party abandoned unilateralism in its pursuit islature and executive in Scotland. After a referendum in of electoral success. The divisiveness of the period nev- 1998, a Scottish Parliament met in Edinburgh in 1999 for ertheless helped to create a climate in which U.K. gov- the first time in almost three hundred years, signaling the ernments became more concerned than ever to show that beginning of a new era in the political history of the United the U.K. nuclear force was only a minimum deterrent, Kingdom. and that the United Kingdom was committed to an inter- national nuclear order built around the pursuit of arms Why does the establishment of the Scottish Parliament control and eventual multilateral disarmament. In the 1998 and Executive have implications for the U.K. nuclear de- The Nonproliferation Review/Spring 2002 1 MALCOLM CHALMERS & WILLIAM WALKER terrent? The main reason is that the U.K. nuclear force tary and economic calculations. Over the long run, nuclear- has been entirely located in Scotland since 1998, when armed states are as fragile as any other states. free-fall nuclear bombs previously deployed by the Royal Air Force were scrapped. The four Vanguard submarines THE CONSTITUTIONAL HISTORY OF THE with their Trident missiles, which operate out of the com- UNITED KINGDOM plex of rivers, estuaries and sea lochs known as the Firth The United Kingdom is an unusual state. It is not a of Clyde, then became the only U.K. nuclear delivery sys- unitary state in the French tradition, nor is it a federal state tem. Operation of Trident will henceforth require exten- like Germany or the United States. It has sometimes been sive cooperation between public bodies in England and referred to as a union state, a coming together of three Scotland, some of which will answer to the Scottish Par- disparate kingdoms (England, Scotland and Wales) and liament and Executive, despite the U.K. government re- an Irish province under a single political authority in Lon- taining sole responsibility for nuclear weapon policy and don. Each part of the union has retained its distinctive for controlling the deterrent. In addition, the Scottish Na- culture and institutions, especially Scotland whose church, tional Party (SNP), the main opposition party in the Scot- legal, and education systems have remained separate from tish Parliament, is committed to removing nuclear those established elsewhere in the United Kingdom, and weapons from Scottish territory. If the SNP becomes the which has its own traditions extending from food and dress largest party in the Scottish Parliament after a future elec- to music and literature. tion, it has also pledged to call a referendum on Scottish independence. The current political shape of the United Kingdom de- veloped over many centuries.3 It involved the English con- This article draws on the findings of our recent book quest of Wales in the 14th Century, the long struggles on these developments and their implications.2 Three par- between England and Scotland in the Middle Ages fol- ticular questions will be addressed here. What are the con- lowed by the union of their crowns in 1603 and parlia- sequences (actual and potential) of devolution for the ments in 1707, and the absorption of Ireland in 1801. The operational and political management of the U.K. nuclear union gained strength from great economic dynamism in deterrent, and for policy decisions relating to it? What Britain and imperial expansion in the 18th and 19th cen- political, legal, and military options in regards to the nuclear turies. However, allegiance to it weakened in the 20th force would be available to the Edinburgh and London century despite the unifying effects of two World Wars. governments if the Scottish people voted for independence, Prime Minister Gladstone’s vision of a federal Great Brit- and how realizable would they be? And what lessons can ain was finally abandoned after civil war resulted in be drawn for wider international debates about the frag- Ireland’s division into the Irish Free State and Ulster in mentation and collapse of nuclear-armed states? The ar- 1921, the latter remaining part of the United Kingdom as ticle opens with brief sketches of the political history of Northern Ireland. the United Kingdom and the history of its nuclear force in Scotland, to provide background to the main discus- While Scotland was never as rebellious as Ireland, re- sion. peated concessions have had to be made to the Scottish sense of separate identity in order to hold the United King- We do not wish to suggest that some imminent crisis is dom together.4 A Scottish Secretary was appointed in the about to befall U.K. nuclear policy. Nor are we suggest- late 19th century to represent Scottish interests in the U.K. ing that the fragmentation of this nuclear weapon state cabinet in London; the administration of health, educa- would, if it ever occurred, be threatening to regional or tion, and other social services were transferred to global security. It would not be an event having anything Edinburgh, the capital of Scotland, in the 1930s; and a like the repercussions of the collapse of the Soviet Union rapid growth in votes for the independence-supporting for international nuclear relations. It is nevertheless worth SNP in the 1960s and 1970s led to a referendum in 1978 understanding that the stability and continuity of the U.K. on the re-establishment of a Scottish Parliament with de- deterrent cannot be taken for granted, and that this stabil- volved powers. ity and continuity may have to be rebuilt politically in sig- nificant ways if the deterrent is to survive. Its future now The 1978 referendum failed. But widespread unease depends on developments in Scotland and on its relations at rule from London led to the convening in Edinburgh in with the rest of the United Kingdom as much as on mili- 1989 of a cross-party Constitutional Convention which 2 The Nonproliferation Review/Spring 2002 MALCOLM CHALMERS & WILLIAM WALKER went on to develop a framework that would give Scot- Party became the largest parties in the Scottish and U.K. land greater autonomy within the United Kingdom. Its Parliaments respectively. proposals were adopted by the Labour Party in its mani- festo for the U.K. General Election in 1997. The Labour THE U.K. NUCLEAR FORCE AND ITS HISTORY Party’s victory was followed by a second Scottish refer- The major decisions regarding the U.K. nuclear deter- endum in September 1997, which this time gave decisive rent were taken before devolution happened. It is neces- support to devolution. The Scotland Act establishing the sary to explain the structure of the nuclear force that is Scottish Parliament and Executive gained Royal Assent now located in Scotland, and its reason for being there, in November 1998, and the Scottish Parliament opened before considering how the political and military currents in Edinburgh on 1 July 1999. In parallel, Welsh and North- may henceforth intersect. ern Ireland Assemblies were established in Cardiff and Belfast, albeit with lesser powers. The Capabilities at Faslane and Coulport As a result of these changes, the political structures of Located on Gareloch on the Firth of Clyde, some 25 the United Kingdom are now even more of a hodgepodge miles from Glasgow, HM Naval Base Clyde at Faslane is than they were before. The U.K. Parliament (also known home to four Trident ballistic missile submarines. After as the Westminster Parliament) has retained its constitu- extensive modernization and development during the 1980s tional supremacy and the principal tax-raising powers, but and 1990s, the facilities at Faslane now provide subma- responsibility for legislating on a wide range of policy is- rine support services of various kinds, including a floating sues in Scotland (such as education, legal reform and so- jetty and massive ship lift, engineering stores, electricity cial policy) has now passed from its hands.

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